Modeling the waning and boosting of immunity from infection or vaccination

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dc.contributor.authorCarlsson, Rose-Marieen
dc.contributor.authorChilds, Lauren M.en
dc.contributor.authorFeng, Zhilanen
dc.contributor.authorGlasser, John W.en
dc.contributor.authorHeffernan, Jane M.en
dc.contributor.authorLi, Jingen
dc.contributor.authorRöst, Gergelyen
dc.contributor.departmentMathematicsen
dc.date.accessioned2020-12-18T15:10:12Zen
dc.date.available2020-12-18T15:10:12Zen
dc.date.issued2020-07-21en
dc.description.abstractImmunity following natural infection or immunization may wane, increasing susceptibility to infection with time since infection or vaccination. Symptoms, and concomitantly infectiousness, depend on residual immunity. We quantify these phenomena in a model population composed of individuals whose susceptibility, infectiousness, and symptoms all vary with immune status. We also model age, which affects contact, vaccination and possibly waning rates. The resurgences of pertussis that have been observed wherever effective vaccination programs have reduced typical disease among young children follow from these processes. As one example, we compare simulations with the experience of Sweden following resumption of pertussis vaccination after the hiatus from 1979 to 1996, reproducing the observations leading health authorities to introduce booster doses among school-aged children and adolescents in 2007 and 2014, respectively. Because pertussis comprises a spectrum of symptoms, only the most severe of which are medically attended, accurate models are needed to design optimal vaccination programs where surveillance is less effective. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.en
dc.description.notesThe authors acknowledge the generous support of the American Institute of Mathematics (AIM) via workshop and SQuaRE grants. ZF acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (NSF) via DMS-1814545 and the IR/D program. JMH acknowledges support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and the York University Research Chair Program. The authors thank Patrick Olin and Birger Trollfors for helpful discussions about pertussis and Tiia Lepp for observations from enhanced pertussis surveillance in Sweden. The authors also thank John Edmunds for permitting them to use observations from the PolyMod study.en
dc.description.sponsorshipAmerican Institute of Mathematics (AIM); National Science Foundation (NSF)National Science Foundation (NSF) [DMS-1814545]; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; York University Research Chair Program; SQuaRE grants; IR/D programen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110265en
dc.identifier.eissn1095-8541en
dc.identifier.issn0022-5193en
dc.identifier.other110265en
dc.identifier.pmid32272134en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/101532en
dc.identifier.volume497en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en
dc.subjectMathematical epidemiologyen
dc.subjectWaning and boosting of immunityen
dc.subjectVaccinationen
dc.subjectAge- and immunity-structured populationen
dc.subjectImmuno-epidemiologyen
dc.titleModeling the waning and boosting of immunity from infection or vaccinationen
dc.title.serialJournal of Theoretical Biologyen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.dcmitypeStillImageen
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