Are USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?

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dc.contributor.authorKarali, Bernaen
dc.contributor.authorIsengildina-Massa, Olgaen
dc.contributor.authorIrwin, Scott H.en
dc.contributor.authorAdjemian, Michael K.en
dc.contributor.authorJohansson, Robert C.en
dc.contributor.departmentAgricultural and Applied Economicsen
dc.coverage.countryUnited Statesen
dc.date.accessioned2020-03-03T13:43:16Zen
dc.date.available2020-03-03T13:43:16Zen
dc.date.issued2019-04en
dc.description.abstractThis study investigates whether major USDA reports still provide important news to changing crop markets. The news component of each report, or market "surprise," is measured as a difference between the USDA estimate and its private expectation in corn, soybeans, and wheat markets. Changes in the relevance of USDA information are assessed by examining changes in the magnitude of market surprises and shifts in the futures price reaction to these surprises, which isolates the impact of each report. The stable size of market surprises over time suggests that competition from alternative data sources has not reduced the news component of USDA crop reports. Increasing price reaction to most reports, including those facing competition from alternative information sources, suggests that value of public information may be enhanced in uncertain markets affected by structural changes.en
dc.description.adminPublic domain – authored by a U.S. government employeeen
dc.description.notesFunding support from the Office of the Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Agriculture under Cooperative Agreement No. 58-0111-15-014 is gratefully acknowledged. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.en
dc.description.sponsorshipOffice of the Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Agriculture [58-0111-15-014]en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.02.005en
dc.identifier.eissn1873-5657en
dc.identifier.issn0306-9192en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/97116en
dc.identifier.volume84en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.rightsPublic Domain (U. S.)en
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/en
dc.subjectAnnouncement effectsen
dc.subjectBig dataen
dc.subjectCrop futuresen
dc.subjectMarket surpriseen
dc.subjectPrice reactionen
dc.subjectUSDA reportsen
dc.titleAre USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?en
dc.title.serialFood Policyen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.dcmitypeStillImageen

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Scholarly Works, Agricultural and Applied Economics