WEBVTT 1 00:00:02.339 --> 00:00:13.410 A:middle L:90% Okay. Okay. Mhm. Good afternoon. My 2 00:00:13.410 --> 00:00:16.000 A:middle L:90% name is Bill Hopkins. I am a professor of 3 00:00:16.000 --> 00:00:19.309 A:middle L:90% wildlife conservation in the College of Natural Resources and Environment 4 00:00:19.320 --> 00:00:22.190 A:middle L:90% . And I also serve as the director of Virginia 5 00:00:22.190 --> 00:00:25.219 A:middle L:90% Tech's Global Change Center. I'd like to welcome everyone 6 00:00:25.230 --> 00:00:28.879 A:middle L:90% to another installment of our Global Change Center Distinguished Lecture 7 00:00:28.879 --> 00:00:30.899 A:middle L:90% series. This has been an effort to try to 8 00:00:30.899 --> 00:00:34.609 A:middle L:90% engage the public on important issues related to conservation and 9 00:00:34.609 --> 00:00:38.320 A:middle L:90% sustainability. We really appreciate you coming out once again 10 00:00:38.320 --> 00:00:40.929 A:middle L:90% . It's really encouraging to see such a strong turnout 11 00:00:40.929 --> 00:00:42.600 A:middle L:90% , not just from the university, but also from 12 00:00:42.600 --> 00:00:46.789 A:middle L:90% the community. This is a particularly special event for 13 00:00:46.789 --> 00:00:50.670 A:middle L:90% us today, um, because it's serving multiple purposes 14 00:00:50.679 --> 00:00:53.520 A:middle L:90% . As we celebrate Earth Day tomorrow. We will 15 00:00:53.520 --> 00:00:56.670 A:middle L:90% also be holding it all day graduate symposium, where 16 00:00:56.670 --> 00:00:58.890 A:middle L:90% we're gonna be recognizing our graduate students and some of 17 00:00:58.890 --> 00:01:00.590 A:middle L:90% their accomplishments. And so Dr Tewksbury is not only 18 00:01:00.590 --> 00:01:03.409 A:middle L:90% here to give this lecture, but he's also kicking 19 00:01:03.409 --> 00:01:04.989 A:middle L:90% off that event and spending a lot of quality time 20 00:01:06.000 --> 00:01:07.689 A:middle L:90% with our graduate students while he's here. Before I 21 00:01:07.689 --> 00:01:11.250 A:middle L:90% introduce Dr Tewksbury, I want to thank some folks 22 00:01:12.239 --> 00:01:15.390 A:middle L:90% . First of all, our home. Our academic 23 00:01:15.390 --> 00:01:18.019 A:middle L:90% home at Virginia Tech is the Frail and Life Science 24 00:01:18.030 --> 00:01:19.540 A:middle L:90% Institute. So that's where we're funded. And that's 25 00:01:19.540 --> 00:01:23.269 A:middle L:90% where we actually reside within the university structure. So 26 00:01:23.269 --> 00:01:25.750 A:middle L:90% we're very fortunate to have them as a sponsor. 27 00:01:26.140 --> 00:01:27.930 A:middle L:90% The Virginia Tech Graduate School, who funds are graduate 28 00:01:27.930 --> 00:01:32.569 A:middle L:90% education program and is partially funding today's event, and 29 00:01:32.569 --> 00:01:34.939 A:middle L:90% I also want to thank a few individuals David Hike 30 00:01:34.950 --> 00:01:38.250 A:middle L:90% from the department of plant pathology, physiology and weed 31 00:01:38.250 --> 00:01:41.989 A:middle L:90% science. We would not have gotten Josh here today 32 00:01:41.989 --> 00:01:44.739 A:middle L:90% . I feel very confident if it wasn't for David's 33 00:01:44.750 --> 00:01:46.930 A:middle L:90% hard work on this, Uh, I'd like to 34 00:01:46.930 --> 00:01:49.159 A:middle L:90% thank all the frail in Life Science Institute. Um 35 00:01:49.540 --> 00:01:53.269 A:middle L:90% , staff are graduate students who were helping get people 36 00:01:53.269 --> 00:01:56.159 A:middle L:90% in and out today. And, of course, 37 00:01:56.159 --> 00:01:57.480 A:middle L:90% Gloria Schoenholtz, who is our center coordinator. She 38 00:01:57.480 --> 00:02:01.859 A:middle L:90% helps us basically do everything that we do. And 39 00:02:01.859 --> 00:02:04.450 A:middle L:90% last and certainly not least, I want to thank 40 00:02:04.450 --> 00:02:06.849 A:middle L:90% the Lyric Theatre. We've partnered with the lyric now 41 00:02:06.849 --> 00:02:08.250 A:middle L:90% several times to hold these events, and we're really 42 00:02:08.250 --> 00:02:10.509 A:middle L:90% fortunate to have, uh, this sort of a 43 00:02:10.509 --> 00:02:14.110 A:middle L:90% community theater to engage in these sorts of discussions. 44 00:02:14.110 --> 00:02:17.150 A:middle L:90% So let's join me in thanking everyone. Mhm. 45 00:02:22.840 --> 00:02:27.120 A:middle L:90% Okay, So before I introduce our speaker, two 46 00:02:27.120 --> 00:02:30.219 A:middle L:90% quick housekeeping items Um Uh, first of all, 47 00:02:30.219 --> 00:02:31.060 A:middle L:90% we will have a brief Q and A at the 48 00:02:31.060 --> 00:02:34.020 A:middle L:90% end of this, and so we'll have a microphone 49 00:02:34.020 --> 00:02:35.800 A:middle L:90% down at the base of the stage. Here. 50 00:02:35.800 --> 00:02:38.849 A:middle L:90% We ask that because the events being taped, we 51 00:02:38.849 --> 00:02:39.750 A:middle L:90% ask that you come up and use the microphone. 52 00:02:40.000 --> 00:02:43.319 A:middle L:90% Please be respectful of people's time. We're not going 53 00:02:43.319 --> 00:02:45.129 A:middle L:90% to have a long time for Q and A because 54 00:02:45.129 --> 00:02:46.180 A:middle L:90% we actually have to get out of the building by 55 00:02:46.180 --> 00:02:49.949 A:middle L:90% six o'clock because the lyric has other events going on 56 00:02:51.340 --> 00:02:53.129 A:middle L:90% . So it is my pleasure today to introduce the 57 00:02:53.129 --> 00:02:58.259 A:middle L:90% 2016 Global Change Center distinguished lecturer Dr Josh Tewksbury, 58 00:02:58.939 --> 00:03:01.469 A:middle L:90% Dr Tewksbury received his bachelor's and field biology. I 59 00:03:01.469 --> 00:03:05.539 A:middle L:90% didn't even know schools offer degrees in field biology, 60 00:03:05.539 --> 00:03:08.560 A:middle L:90% which is awesome from Prescott College in Prescott, Arizona 61 00:03:08.569 --> 00:03:10.330 A:middle L:90% . He then went on to receive his Ph. 62 00:03:10.330 --> 00:03:13.719 A:middle L:90% D. In ecology from the University of Montana. 63 00:03:13.819 --> 00:03:15.719 A:middle L:90% And then he did two postdoctoral fellowships at the University 64 00:03:15.719 --> 00:03:19.069 A:middle L:90% of Florida. He spent over 10 years on the 65 00:03:19.069 --> 00:03:21.379 A:middle L:90% faculty at the University of Washington, where he held 66 00:03:21.379 --> 00:03:24.210 A:middle L:90% the walker and down professorship of natural history. His 67 00:03:24.210 --> 00:03:28.740 A:middle L:90% research interests have been quite diverse, answering critical questions 68 00:03:28.740 --> 00:03:30.939 A:middle L:90% and ecology, natural history and conservation. These include 69 00:03:30.939 --> 00:03:36.259 A:middle L:90% topics such as habitat fragmentation and its effects on biodiversity 70 00:03:36.740 --> 00:03:39.819 A:middle L:90% . The role of habitat corridors for creating connectivity in 71 00:03:39.830 --> 00:03:45.400 A:middle L:90% establishing effective movement of seed dispersal pollinators like birds and 72 00:03:45.400 --> 00:03:50.060 A:middle L:90% butterflies, the chemical ecology of fruit and animal interactions 73 00:03:50.069 --> 00:03:53.120 A:middle L:90% to include really, really interesting questions related to things 74 00:03:53.120 --> 00:03:54.479 A:middle L:90% like Why are chili peppers hot? So he's got 75 00:03:54.479 --> 00:03:58.610 A:middle L:90% a whole research program basically on that subject. He's 76 00:03:58.610 --> 00:04:00.460 A:middle L:90% also done a lot of work with invasive species and 77 00:04:00.460 --> 00:04:03.539 A:middle L:90% climate change. He's also written extensively on the importance 78 00:04:03.539 --> 00:04:08.599 A:middle L:90% of citizen science, new frontiers and ecology based on 79 00:04:08.599 --> 00:04:11.750 A:middle L:90% big data in today's big data world and the importance 80 00:04:11.750 --> 00:04:15.620 A:middle L:90% of natural history to both to society and to science 81 00:04:15.620 --> 00:04:17.560 A:middle L:90% in the future. He's been a prolific publisher not 82 00:04:17.560 --> 00:04:19.949 A:middle L:90% only just in terms of quantity, but the quality 83 00:04:19.949 --> 00:04:23.529 A:middle L:90% and impact of his publications is just astounding. He 84 00:04:23.529 --> 00:04:28.220 A:middle L:90% publishes regularly in Science Nature Proceedings of the National Academy 85 00:04:28.220 --> 00:04:30.300 A:middle L:90% of Sciences and Proceedings of the Royal Society, some 86 00:04:30.300 --> 00:04:31.649 A:middle L:90% of the most high tier journals in the world. 87 00:04:32.639 --> 00:04:36.149 A:middle L:90% About five years ago, Dr Tewksbury turned his attentions 88 00:04:36.149 --> 00:04:40.139 A:middle L:90% really change a career path in many ways to start 89 00:04:40.139 --> 00:04:43.959 A:middle L:90% addressing ways in which science can more effectively serve society 90 00:04:44.639 --> 00:04:46.069 A:middle L:90% , and he sought to do this. I mean 91 00:04:46.069 --> 00:04:47.060 A:middle L:90% , that's a hard enough task to do locally. 92 00:04:47.069 --> 00:04:49.459 A:middle L:90% He sought to do this on a global scale. 93 00:04:49.939 --> 00:04:53.740 A:middle L:90% To this end, in 2012, he assumed the 94 00:04:53.750 --> 00:04:57.209 A:middle L:90% position is founding director of the Luc Hoffmann Institute within 95 00:04:57.209 --> 00:05:00.269 A:middle L:90% WWF International in Switzerland, and he maintained that position 96 00:05:00.269 --> 00:05:05.540 A:middle L:90% from 2012 to 2015. The institute serves to create 97 00:05:05.540 --> 00:05:10.220 A:middle L:90% very strong connections between science policy and practice to lead 98 00:05:10.269 --> 00:05:14.220 A:middle L:90% to effective conservation outcomes. As director, he he 99 00:05:14.220 --> 00:05:17.860 A:middle L:90% oversaw basically all aspects of the institute, including international 100 00:05:17.860 --> 00:05:23.920 A:middle L:90% strategic partnerships, creation of international fellowship programs and very 101 00:05:23.920 --> 00:05:27.329 A:middle L:90% large research agendas. International research agendas, including things 102 00:05:27.329 --> 00:05:30.449 A:middle L:90% like work on the food, energy, water nexus 103 00:05:30.449 --> 00:05:33.029 A:middle L:90% in Southeast Asia, global mapping of threats to biodiversity 104 00:05:33.100 --> 00:05:36.720 A:middle L:90% and the development of low carbon sustainability targets for urban 105 00:05:36.720 --> 00:05:40.509 A:middle L:90% areas. This year, Dr Tewksbury moved back to 106 00:05:40.509 --> 00:05:43.000 A:middle L:90% the United States and he was named the U. 107 00:05:43.000 --> 00:05:45.709 A:middle L:90% S. Global hub director of an organization. And 108 00:05:45.709 --> 00:05:47.259 A:middle L:90% we'll talk about I think I believe something today Future 109 00:05:47.259 --> 00:05:50.740 A:middle L:90% Earth, which is an international research platform that's connected 110 00:05:50.740 --> 00:05:54.399 A:middle L:90% throughout the world, including four other global hubs, 111 00:05:54.410 --> 00:05:57.360 A:middle L:90% and Sweden, Tokyo, Paris and Montreal. In 112 00:05:57.360 --> 00:06:00.439 A:middle L:90% his new role he will continue to control, continue 113 00:06:00.439 --> 00:06:04.339 A:middle L:90% to coordinate research and large partnerships, international partnerships to 114 00:06:04.339 --> 00:06:09.060 A:middle L:90% generate knowledge and solutions to global sustainable development. A 115 00:06:09.060 --> 00:06:12.579 A:middle L:90% recent editorial in the journal Science stated that future Earth 116 00:06:12.579 --> 00:06:15.699 A:middle L:90% is possibly the largest, most ambitious international research program 117 00:06:15.850 --> 00:06:19.139 A:middle L:90% that's ever been undertaken. After visiting with Josh over 118 00:06:19.139 --> 00:06:21.259 A:middle L:90% the last day and a half, it is abundantly 119 00:06:21.259 --> 00:06:25.060 A:middle L:90% clear to me why he was selected for this position 120 00:06:25.740 --> 00:06:28.689 A:middle L:90% . It takes individuals with Josh's passion, his vision 121 00:06:28.689 --> 00:06:30.019 A:middle L:90% , his leadership and his enthusiasm, which you're gonna 122 00:06:30.019 --> 00:06:32.209 A:middle L:90% see a lot of today to lead the charge on 123 00:06:32.209 --> 00:06:35.250 A:middle L:90% such an ambitious and critical agenda. So it's my 124 00:06:35.250 --> 00:06:41.680 A:middle L:90% honor today to welcome the 2016 distinguished 2016 distinguished guests 125 00:06:41.810 --> 00:06:49.449 A:middle L:90% . Dr Josh Tewksbury. All right, Okay, 126 00:06:49.459 --> 00:06:54.600 A:middle L:90% I think I'm live. So it is an incredible 127 00:06:54.600 --> 00:06:57.329 A:middle L:90% honor to be here today. I've had an amazing 128 00:06:57.329 --> 00:06:59.649 A:middle L:90% time at the Latin and over the last day and 129 00:06:59.649 --> 00:07:02.149 A:middle L:90% a half, working with the staff and the faculty 130 00:07:02.149 --> 00:07:04.459 A:middle L:90% and the students, um, that are here at 131 00:07:04.459 --> 00:07:06.589 A:middle L:90% the Global Change Center at Virginia Tech. I want 132 00:07:06.589 --> 00:07:09.930 A:middle L:90% to thank Bill Hopkins, David Hike and really the 133 00:07:09.930 --> 00:07:13.699 A:middle L:90% entire group there that's doing it a difficult and incredibly 134 00:07:13.699 --> 00:07:17.350 A:middle L:90% important task. It is vital for the future of 135 00:07:17.360 --> 00:07:23.139 A:middle L:90% our societies that are best. Minds in academia have 136 00:07:23.149 --> 00:07:27.180 A:middle L:90% very low barriers to work together, are incentivized to 137 00:07:27.189 --> 00:07:30.720 A:middle L:90% actually work on problems that are tightly tied to the 138 00:07:30.730 --> 00:07:34.389 A:middle L:90% fundamental issues that we're facing a society as possible and 139 00:07:34.389 --> 00:07:36.779 A:middle L:90% it works within. And that allows that to happen 140 00:07:36.779 --> 00:07:40.949 A:middle L:90% within within institutions, with the quality that Virginia attack 141 00:07:40.949 --> 00:07:44.189 A:middle L:90% has as a global land grant institution, as a 142 00:07:44.189 --> 00:07:46.060 A:middle L:90% leading institution. It's my view that land grants in 143 00:07:46.060 --> 00:07:49.089 A:middle L:90% this country will be the sort of the nexus point 144 00:07:49.180 --> 00:07:53.680 A:middle L:90% for sustainability science, because they've been doing interdisciplinary, 145 00:07:53.680 --> 00:07:57.560 A:middle L:90% sometimes cross disciplinary or trans disciplinary research for a long 146 00:07:57.560 --> 00:08:00.790 A:middle L:90% time in this country. And that is a skill 147 00:08:00.790 --> 00:08:03.560 A:middle L:90% set that is more and more vital to the future 148 00:08:03.560 --> 00:08:05.139 A:middle L:90% relationship between science and the rest of society. So 149 00:08:05.139 --> 00:08:07.509 A:middle L:90% it's really exciting to be here and to see the 150 00:08:07.509 --> 00:08:11.750 A:middle L:90% vitality and this crew moving that forward within Virginia Tech 151 00:08:11.750 --> 00:08:13.660 A:middle L:90% , and I'm super excited to continue working there, 152 00:08:13.240 --> 00:08:16.790 A:middle L:90% So I want to start by just a little bit 153 00:08:16.790 --> 00:08:20.660 A:middle L:90% of reflection on where we live. Um, it's 154 00:08:20.660 --> 00:08:22.350 A:middle L:90% And when I see this planet rising over the moon 155 00:08:22.360 --> 00:08:26.149 A:middle L:90% , um, I think of the tremendous amount of 156 00:08:26.149 --> 00:08:31.240 A:middle L:90% life and the tremendous contrast between where we live and 157 00:08:31.250 --> 00:08:33.570 A:middle L:90% the rest of space. It's a It's a pretty 158 00:08:33.570 --> 00:08:35.019 A:middle L:90% special place, but what creates those colors and creates 159 00:08:35.019 --> 00:08:37.779 A:middle L:90% that space are really just a very thin skin on 160 00:08:37.779 --> 00:08:39.460 A:middle L:90% our planet, of course. So this is that 161 00:08:39.460 --> 00:08:43.409 A:middle L:90% same planet. But this time the atmosphere which we 162 00:08:43.409 --> 00:08:45.909 A:middle L:90% depend on is right here. That's all the atmosphere 163 00:08:45.909 --> 00:08:48.000 A:middle L:90% in relation to the size of the earth. That's 164 00:08:48.000 --> 00:08:48.970 A:middle L:90% all the water in the size of the earth, 165 00:08:50.139 --> 00:08:52.059 A:middle L:90% the small dot in the center and fresh water. 166 00:08:52.639 --> 00:08:56.059 A:middle L:90% That's the bit we live on. That's the part 167 00:08:56.070 --> 00:08:58.570 A:middle L:90% that all of our life is dependent on this thin 168 00:08:58.570 --> 00:09:01.200 A:middle L:90% skin around this around this rock. And, you 169 00:09:01.200 --> 00:09:05.360 A:middle L:90% know, over the last four billion years of life 170 00:09:05.740 --> 00:09:09.159 A:middle L:90% on most most organisms, most of us are relatively 171 00:09:09.159 --> 00:09:13.509 A:middle L:90% inconsequential. We don't actually do much to change the 172 00:09:13.509 --> 00:09:16.149 A:middle L:90% trajectory of the globe. We're on collectively, over 173 00:09:16.149 --> 00:09:18.090 A:middle L:90% the deep history and time, there have been events 174 00:09:18.090 --> 00:09:20.179 A:middle L:90% that that proved that rule with exception. But right 175 00:09:20.179 --> 00:09:24.649 A:middle L:90% now we're an organism that's sitting on four billion years 176 00:09:24.649 --> 00:09:28.250 A:middle L:90% of history of life. Approximately 99.9% of the organisms 177 00:09:28.250 --> 00:09:33.779 A:middle L:90% that arose flourished have gone extinct on this planet, 178 00:09:33.860 --> 00:09:35.659 A:middle L:90% and we share this planet with 10 to 15 million 179 00:09:35.659 --> 00:09:41.809 A:middle L:90% other species for most of that history. Oh, 180 00:09:41.820 --> 00:09:45.090 A:middle L:90% most of us were putting inconsequential. And I guess 181 00:09:45.090 --> 00:09:46.659 A:middle L:90% the fundamental bit around this lecture is that that's changing 182 00:09:48.340 --> 00:09:50.970 A:middle L:90% . We're moving into a space in which one species 183 00:09:50.139 --> 00:09:56.210 A:middle L:90% is having overriding effects on not just the life around 184 00:09:56.210 --> 00:09:56.750 A:middle L:90% us, but all life on the planet and the 185 00:09:56.750 --> 00:10:00.090 A:middle L:90% trajectory of the planet itself. The trajectory of that 186 00:10:00.100 --> 00:10:03.340 A:middle L:90% thin skin that keeps us in a in a bubble 187 00:10:03.350 --> 00:10:07.500 A:middle L:90% that has really allowed our civilization to flourish. And 188 00:10:07.509 --> 00:10:09.389 A:middle L:90% I like to sort of walk backwards about 100,000 years 189 00:10:09.399 --> 00:10:13.190 A:middle L:90% to give a bit of perspective on Why Where will 190 00:10:13.190 --> 00:10:16.570 A:middle L:90% you live is so important to who we are as 191 00:10:16.570 --> 00:10:18.100 A:middle L:90% a species as a civilization. This is the last 192 00:10:18.100 --> 00:10:20.409 A:middle L:90% 100,000 years of temperature, and I just want to 193 00:10:20.409 --> 00:10:24.519 A:middle L:90% point out one pattern. The last 10,000 years are 194 00:10:24.519 --> 00:10:28.159 A:middle L:90% a period of enormous of that are really different. 195 00:10:28.210 --> 00:10:33.129 A:middle L:90% There's incredible stability in this 10,000 year period. Well 196 00:10:33.139 --> 00:10:35.169 A:middle L:90% , you know, so humans have been around for 197 00:10:35.179 --> 00:10:37.899 A:middle L:90% 200,000 years, but just barely. We didn't really 198 00:10:37.899 --> 00:10:41.220 A:middle L:90% start taking off as a species on this planet until 199 00:10:41.220 --> 00:10:45.049 A:middle L:90% the past 10,000 years, until all the variables that 200 00:10:45.049 --> 00:10:48.179 A:middle L:90% make the planet what it is today sort of worked 201 00:10:48.179 --> 00:10:50.929 A:middle L:90% yourself into an equilibrium that was an incubator for human 202 00:10:50.929 --> 00:10:54.279 A:middle L:90% civilization. This is when agriculture took off. This 203 00:10:54.279 --> 00:10:56.539 A:middle L:90% is when everything post agriculture happened. All of our 204 00:10:56.539 --> 00:11:00.740 A:middle L:90% infrastructure, all of our human systems, are geared 205 00:11:00.750 --> 00:11:03.659 A:middle L:90% to a time of immense stability in planetary history. 206 00:11:05.139 --> 00:11:07.029 A:middle L:90% We live and breathe the stability around us, and 207 00:11:07.029 --> 00:11:09.940 A:middle L:90% what's important about that is I think we're a species 208 00:11:09.990 --> 00:11:15.509 A:middle L:90% that's now actively, communally pushing ourselves out of that 209 00:11:15.509 --> 00:11:18.940 A:middle L:90% envelope. We're leaving this garden and even even through 210 00:11:18.940 --> 00:11:20.940 A:middle L:90% our actions, and these are actions which you know 211 00:11:20.940 --> 00:11:24.690 A:middle L:90% we collectively have some control over. It's just hard 212 00:11:24.690 --> 00:11:26.779 A:middle L:90% to exercise that control, and I'm going to show 213 00:11:26.779 --> 00:11:28.500 A:middle L:90% a few basic statistics that show that our impact on 214 00:11:28.500 --> 00:11:31.679 A:middle L:90% the planet are is not only just high but increasing 215 00:11:31.679 --> 00:11:35.149 A:middle L:90% at this. Is this really interesting exponential rate? 216 00:11:35.240 --> 00:11:37.360 A:middle L:90% A lot of scientists call that the great acceleration, 217 00:11:37.539 --> 00:11:39.750 A:middle L:90% and it's an acceleration both in human impact and human 218 00:11:39.750 --> 00:11:43.389 A:middle L:90% trends and in planetary feedbacks, the way in which 219 00:11:43.389 --> 00:11:45.940 A:middle L:90% the planet is changing. As a result, of 220 00:11:45.950 --> 00:11:48.350 A:middle L:90% of our changes. So whether we're talking about world 221 00:11:48.350 --> 00:11:50.980 A:middle L:90% population in developed countries, developing countries or the rest 222 00:11:50.980 --> 00:11:54.529 A:middle L:90% of the planet, whether we're talking about urban population 223 00:11:54.529 --> 00:11:58.600 A:middle L:90% explosions, whether we're talking about primary energy use or 224 00:11:58.600 --> 00:12:05.389 A:middle L:90% water use or fertilizer consumption or transportation, what you 225 00:12:05.389 --> 00:12:07.779 A:middle L:90% see is around 1950 all of these things start ramping 226 00:12:07.779 --> 00:12:11.340 A:middle L:90% up its 11 species starts really taking control of this 227 00:12:11.340 --> 00:12:15.779 A:middle L:90% planet. Um, and if you take these patterns 228 00:12:15.789 --> 00:12:18.129 A:middle L:90% and then you ask what's happening to the planet and 229 00:12:18.129 --> 00:12:20.389 A:middle L:90% you look at that same interval Carbon dioxide, nitrous 230 00:12:20.389 --> 00:12:26.470 A:middle L:90% oxide, ocean acidification, coastal coastal Nitra fication tropical 231 00:12:26.470 --> 00:12:28.889 A:middle L:90% forest lost all the major trends. They're not just 232 00:12:28.889 --> 00:12:33.149 A:middle L:90% increasing, but there's these inflection points around this period 233 00:12:33.159 --> 00:12:35.769 A:middle L:90% . Terrestrial biosphere degradation. These are not inconsequential, 234 00:12:35.779 --> 00:12:39.850 A:middle L:90% and they're not unlinked. The formless system in which 235 00:12:39.860 --> 00:12:43.970 A:middle L:90% our impacts on the planet are the ramping up of 236 00:12:43.970 --> 00:12:48.740 A:middle L:90% human civilization is deeply connected to the feedbacks that the 237 00:12:48.740 --> 00:12:50.600 A:middle L:90% planet is the feedback, the feedback that are coming 238 00:12:50.600 --> 00:12:52.899 A:middle L:90% from the planet. So there's there's a paper Just 239 00:12:52.899 --> 00:12:54.799 A:middle L:90% last year that sort of collected all of these, 240 00:12:54.809 --> 00:12:58.139 A:middle L:90% um um and it was updated. Last year was 241 00:12:58.139 --> 00:13:00.350 A:middle L:90% first published a few years before that It just looked 242 00:13:00.360 --> 00:13:05.090 A:middle L:90% at this large scale acceleration in both human connectivity and 243 00:13:05.100 --> 00:13:07.370 A:middle L:90% human influence on the planet and the feedbacks that are 244 00:13:07.370 --> 00:13:11.950 A:middle L:90% starting to happen from planetary variables. And this, 245 00:13:11.950 --> 00:13:13.759 A:middle L:90% I think, is the story of the Anthropocene. 246 00:13:15.139 --> 00:13:16.990 A:middle L:90% This is the story of an age that is not 247 00:13:16.990 --> 00:13:20.009 A:middle L:90% only of men, but potentially under control to some 248 00:13:20.019 --> 00:13:24.350 A:middle L:90% , some loose degree by man by by by by 249 00:13:24.350 --> 00:13:26.539 A:middle L:90% one species. And I want to just walk through 250 00:13:26.549 --> 00:13:30.220 A:middle L:90% the last 250 here, 250 year history of this 251 00:13:30.230 --> 00:13:33.019 A:middle L:90% with a brief little video. So the Anthropocene, 252 00:13:33.019 --> 00:13:37.029 A:middle L:90% the last chapter of the Anthropocene is, can start 253 00:13:37.029 --> 00:13:39.899 A:middle L:90% really 250 years ago. It's a It's a story 254 00:13:39.899 --> 00:13:43.039 A:middle L:90% that starts about fueled by coal and oil. Several 255 00:13:43.039 --> 00:13:46.720 A:middle L:90% brilliant innovations appeared, and they ignited the Industrial Revolution 256 00:13:46.740 --> 00:13:48.980 A:middle L:90% , which started more or less in England and spread 257 00:13:48.980 --> 00:13:52.690 A:middle L:90% through Europe, spread to the United States, spread 258 00:13:52.690 --> 00:13:56.549 A:middle L:90% to Japan and elsewhere in the world. And this 259 00:13:56.549 --> 00:14:00.120 A:middle L:90% is when the great railways and cars and highways connecting 260 00:14:00.129 --> 00:14:03.559 A:middle L:90% people across the globe. Medical discoveries at this period 261 00:14:03.559 --> 00:14:05.870 A:middle L:90% saved millions of lives. Now, new artificial fertilizers 262 00:14:05.870 --> 00:14:09.460 A:middle L:90% that we could feed more people, populations exploded, 263 00:14:09.470 --> 00:14:11.110 A:middle L:90% but This is really nothing to compare to what happened 264 00:14:11.120 --> 00:14:13.149 A:middle L:90% . What is to come in this inflection point around 265 00:14:13.149 --> 00:14:16.580 A:middle L:90% 1950. And what we see at that point is 266 00:14:16.590 --> 00:14:18.409 A:middle L:90% you know, the beginning of what of that great 267 00:14:18.409 --> 00:14:24.169 A:middle L:90% acceleration right about in here. Globalization, marketing, 268 00:14:24.179 --> 00:14:28.029 A:middle L:90% tourism. Huge investments helped an enormous growth around the 269 00:14:28.029 --> 00:14:30.580 A:middle L:90% world. People swarm to cities which became even more 270 00:14:30.580 --> 00:14:33.009 A:middle L:90% powerful engines of creativity in a single lifetime. The 271 00:14:33.009 --> 00:14:37.840 A:middle L:90% well being of people around the world dramatically increased massive 272 00:14:37.840 --> 00:14:39.860 A:middle L:90% reductions in childhood mortality, massive reductions in poverty. 273 00:14:39.940 --> 00:14:43.309 A:middle L:90% The Anthropocene has primarily been a very positive influence for 274 00:14:43.309 --> 00:14:46.220 A:middle L:90% most of the people who live on this planet of 275 00:14:46.389 --> 00:14:48.720 A:middle L:90% wealth, security, longevity. There really isn't a 276 00:14:48.720 --> 00:14:50.570 A:middle L:90% period in history where so many people have had so 277 00:14:50.570 --> 00:14:52.970 A:middle L:90% much. But we still have a billion people that 278 00:14:52.970 --> 00:14:54.860 A:middle L:90% don't have enough to eat. We have 1.3 billion 279 00:14:54.860 --> 00:14:58.580 A:middle L:90% people without electricity. We have similar number without reliable 280 00:14:58.580 --> 00:15:01.500 A:middle L:90% access to water. So over the last 70 years 281 00:15:01.509 --> 00:15:03.570 A:middle L:90% , we have grown into a phenomenal global force on 282 00:15:03.570 --> 00:15:05.990 A:middle L:90% the planet. We're altering the energy. We're altering 283 00:15:05.990 --> 00:15:09.190 A:middle L:90% the Earth's natural cycles. We move more sediment than 284 00:15:09.200 --> 00:15:13.169 A:middle L:90% all natural forces combined. At this point, we 285 00:15:13.169 --> 00:15:16.009 A:middle L:90% are using a tidy three quarters of the terrestrial land 286 00:15:16.009 --> 00:15:18.750 A:middle L:90% surface that isn't under ice for our own purposes. 287 00:15:18.139 --> 00:15:22.429 A:middle L:90% Um, we have greenhouse gases now on this planet 288 00:15:22.429 --> 00:15:24.240 A:middle L:90% that are higher than has ever been seen in the 289 00:15:24.240 --> 00:15:26.779 A:middle L:90% last million years. And we're on track for changing 290 00:15:26.779 --> 00:15:31.580 A:middle L:90% climate at a pace two orders of magnitude faster than 291 00:15:31.580 --> 00:15:33.830 A:middle L:90% has ever been experienced in in in the made in 292 00:15:33.830 --> 00:15:37.220 A:middle L:90% recorded history. In the major climate change events 55 293 00:15:37.220 --> 00:15:39.990 A:middle L:90% million years ago, we see what we saw. 294 00:15:39.990 --> 00:15:41.730 A:middle L:90% A major spike in temperature. We're gonna do it 295 00:15:41.730 --> 00:15:43.960 A:middle L:90% twice. Two orders of magnitude faster than that, 296 00:15:43.340 --> 00:15:46.490 A:middle L:90% really stressing natural systems. So there's a lot of 297 00:15:46.490 --> 00:15:50.519 A:middle L:90% science of this unprecedented mark and the climate, the 298 00:15:50.519 --> 00:15:52.549 A:middle L:90% ozone hole, the amount of sinking deltas around the 299 00:15:52.549 --> 00:15:56.210 A:middle L:90% world Um, the loss of biodiversity, which is 300 00:15:56.210 --> 00:15:58.590 A:middle L:90% this pernicious variable that we have a hard time communicating 301 00:15:58.590 --> 00:16:02.250 A:middle L:90% the importance of. And, you know, I 302 00:16:02.250 --> 00:16:03.549 A:middle L:90% think that this is we have entered the Anthropocene. 303 00:16:04.139 --> 00:16:07.100 A:middle L:90% This is an age dominated by humanity, and for 304 00:16:07.100 --> 00:16:10.159 A:middle L:90% most of human history, we have been on we've 305 00:16:10.159 --> 00:16:12.980 A:middle L:90% been on the couch of this planetary aircraft, and 306 00:16:12.980 --> 00:16:15.389 A:middle L:90% I think at this point it's very clear that we've 307 00:16:15.389 --> 00:16:19.240 A:middle L:90% moved up into the pilot seat were up there pushing 308 00:16:19.240 --> 00:16:22.120 A:middle L:90% buttons, driving the levers. We've just started to 309 00:16:22.120 --> 00:16:25.340 A:middle L:90% realize that we're flying this plane, but we don't 310 00:16:25.340 --> 00:16:27.570 A:middle L:90% have a pilot's license, and we and when you're 311 00:16:27.570 --> 00:16:30.149 A:middle L:90% in this situation, you start to want to learn 312 00:16:30.149 --> 00:16:33.750 A:middle L:90% to fly really quickly. I think that's where we 313 00:16:33.750 --> 00:16:34.940 A:middle L:90% are at a place where, as a global society 314 00:16:34.940 --> 00:16:37.610 A:middle L:90% , we're trying to learn how to fly a plane 315 00:16:37.620 --> 00:16:38.559 A:middle L:90% , Um, that we just have now realized that 316 00:16:38.559 --> 00:16:41.940 A:middle L:90% were in charge of more or less sort of like 317 00:16:41.940 --> 00:16:44.350 A:middle L:90% it or not. So I want to spend the 318 00:16:44.350 --> 00:16:48.769 A:middle L:90% next 30 40 minutes talking about several bits in which 319 00:16:48.340 --> 00:16:51.539 A:middle L:90% I think science has a role to play in creating 320 00:16:51.539 --> 00:16:53.559 A:middle L:90% a narrative that helps us fly that plane because I 321 00:16:53.559 --> 00:16:56.539 A:middle L:90% don't think it's up to science to fly the plane 322 00:16:56.559 --> 00:16:57.940 A:middle L:90% . But I do think there is an important value 323 00:16:57.950 --> 00:17:02.019 A:middle L:90% of evidence and the evidence based that science can bring 324 00:17:02.029 --> 00:17:03.980 A:middle L:90% to that process. And I think of science. 325 00:17:03.980 --> 00:17:07.309 A:middle L:90% I think of the narrative because that's basically what we 326 00:17:07.309 --> 00:17:11.069 A:middle L:90% need in order to move forward where social primates we 327 00:17:11.069 --> 00:17:14.730 A:middle L:90% communicate with narrative science can inform that narrative. Um 328 00:17:14.740 --> 00:17:15.329 A:middle L:90% , and there are a couple of a couple of 329 00:17:15.339 --> 00:17:17.920 A:middle L:90% sort of key bits of science, and I think 330 00:17:17.920 --> 00:17:19.150 A:middle L:90% of an important and friendly, not global narrative once 331 00:17:19.160 --> 00:17:22.190 A:middle L:90% one is tipping points. Um, the basic understanding 332 00:17:22.190 --> 00:17:25.619 A:middle L:90% that certain systems look stable for a long period of 333 00:17:25.619 --> 00:17:26.380 A:middle L:90% time as you put more and more load on them 334 00:17:26.390 --> 00:17:29.799 A:middle L:90% , and then they suddenly shift. And we're just 335 00:17:29.799 --> 00:17:30.730 A:middle L:90% starting to get a handle on that at the global 336 00:17:30.730 --> 00:17:34.180 A:middle L:90% scale. Another planetary boundaries. Um, and then 337 00:17:34.190 --> 00:17:37.009 A:middle L:90% from that, I'm going to move to several sort 338 00:17:37.009 --> 00:17:38.180 A:middle L:90% of a bit of an exploration of how you use 339 00:17:38.180 --> 00:17:41.380 A:middle L:90% those to get to change how, how, as 340 00:17:41.380 --> 00:17:45.299 A:middle L:90% a society we can start start that movement. And 341 00:17:45.309 --> 00:17:48.460 A:middle L:90% so there's a lot of ways one could demonstrate tipping 342 00:17:48.460 --> 00:17:49.140 A:middle L:90% points. I'm just gonna go through one example with 343 00:17:49.140 --> 00:17:52.579 A:middle L:90% ice sheets. Um, you know, in for 344 00:17:52.579 --> 00:17:55.299 A:middle L:90% a long time, uh, a number. For 345 00:17:55.299 --> 00:17:56.759 A:middle L:90% a number of years, scientists have been worried about 346 00:17:56.769 --> 00:18:00.690 A:middle L:90% critical calculation in which we can see that we're seeing 347 00:18:00.690 --> 00:18:02.880 A:middle L:90% sea level rise of about three millimeters a year. 348 00:18:02.890 --> 00:18:03.509 A:middle L:90% But we couldn't quite figure out where all the ice 349 00:18:03.509 --> 00:18:07.809 A:middle L:90% was coming from to create that rise, and it 350 00:18:07.809 --> 00:18:08.720 A:middle L:90% was assumed that that was coming mostly from Greenland, 351 00:18:08.839 --> 00:18:11.319 A:middle L:90% because of some physics that were in place that made 352 00:18:11.319 --> 00:18:14.430 A:middle L:90% it seem like it would be very improbable for to 353 00:18:14.430 --> 00:18:17.009 A:middle L:90% be coming from the Southern Hemisphere are from Antarctica. 354 00:18:17.019 --> 00:18:19.309 A:middle L:90% But in 2014, a couple of papers were published 355 00:18:19.319 --> 00:18:23.910 A:middle L:90% that showed that not only was many large function section 356 00:18:23.910 --> 00:18:27.349 A:middle L:90% of the Western Antarctic ice sheet sheet in, uh 357 00:18:27.640 --> 00:18:30.869 A:middle L:90% in the process of collapse, but actually we're already 358 00:18:30.869 --> 00:18:33.940 A:middle L:90% past the tipping point in which the amount of water 359 00:18:33.940 --> 00:18:37.990 A:middle L:90% flow that was there was flowing out from underneath that 360 00:18:37.000 --> 00:18:40.950 A:middle L:90% ice sheet was creating enough heat and friction to move 361 00:18:40.950 --> 00:18:42.930 A:middle L:90% that system into a new state where collapses basically inevitable 362 00:18:44.059 --> 00:18:45.250 A:middle L:90% , that we were moving large sections of that ice 363 00:18:45.250 --> 00:18:48.809 A:middle L:90% flow into the water, and that was responsible for 364 00:18:48.809 --> 00:18:51.049 A:middle L:90% some of the sea level rise we're seeing now if 365 00:18:51.049 --> 00:18:52.450 A:middle L:90% the whole thing collapses, if we lose this whole 366 00:18:52.450 --> 00:18:56.029 A:middle L:90% space and we kind of think that's gonna happen now 367 00:18:56.039 --> 00:18:57.859 A:middle L:90% , we just don't know when, um, that's 368 00:18:57.859 --> 00:19:00.569 A:middle L:90% looking at partial collapse. Maybe 4 ft of sea 369 00:19:00.569 --> 00:19:03.819 A:middle L:90% level rise, full collapse, maybe 16 ft of 370 00:19:03.819 --> 00:19:06.230 A:middle L:90% sea level rise. These are a lot larger than 371 00:19:06.230 --> 00:19:07.930 A:middle L:90% the two or 33 millimeters we're seeing. But again 372 00:19:07.940 --> 00:19:11.299 A:middle L:90% , long timescales not in my lifetime, Probably not 373 00:19:11.299 --> 00:19:14.359 A:middle L:90% in yours, but we but we haven't. But 374 00:19:14.369 --> 00:19:15.910 A:middle L:90% because of the slow nature of the processes, that 375 00:19:15.910 --> 00:19:18.240 A:middle L:90% tipping point is crossed. And I think when we 376 00:19:18.240 --> 00:19:21.660 A:middle L:90% take that kind of information home where we live, 377 00:19:21.670 --> 00:19:22.039 A:middle L:90% we can see that you know, when you have 378 00:19:22.039 --> 00:19:25.599 A:middle L:90% a place like Virginia, where you know, a 379 00:19:25.609 --> 00:19:27.289 A:middle L:90% quarter million acres are within 5 ft of the high 380 00:19:27.289 --> 00:19:30.579 A:middle L:90% tide line where you have$20 billion in housing investments 381 00:19:30.579 --> 00:19:33.990 A:middle L:90% in that same space, As you start raising that 382 00:19:33.990 --> 00:19:36.440 A:middle L:90% tide line, you start losing a lot of a 383 00:19:36.440 --> 00:19:37.579 A:middle L:90% way of life that we're used to. We start 384 00:19:37.579 --> 00:19:41.359 A:middle L:90% changing the way we're living on the planet, and 385 00:19:41.369 --> 00:19:45.000 A:middle L:90% it has major impacts on our economies. So I 386 00:19:45.000 --> 00:19:48.150 A:middle L:90% also think that these tipping points and our ability to 387 00:19:48.150 --> 00:19:49.559 A:middle L:90% get our heads around them scientifically and then to communicate 388 00:19:49.559 --> 00:19:53.170 A:middle L:90% them to the public and really into decision makers have 389 00:19:53.539 --> 00:19:57.309 A:middle L:90% interesting some interesting, um, sort of large scale 390 00:19:57.309 --> 00:20:03.559 A:middle L:90% implications for the intersection of economic systems and planetary systems 391 00:20:03.240 --> 00:20:08.339 A:middle L:90% . A recent paper last year showed essentially that we 392 00:20:08.349 --> 00:20:11.069 A:middle L:90% if we take all the known oil reserves and then 393 00:20:11.069 --> 00:20:12.769 A:middle L:90% we actually take dig them out of the ground and 394 00:20:12.779 --> 00:20:15.849 A:middle L:90% burn them were into. We're in for like a 395 00:20:15.849 --> 00:20:18.700 A:middle L:90% preposterous amount of sea level rise, just preposterous, 396 00:20:18.710 --> 00:20:22.240 A:middle L:90% like it's not. It's not really feasible. The 397 00:20:22.240 --> 00:20:22.970 A:middle L:90% interesting thing about that, for me, is that 398 00:20:22.980 --> 00:20:26.240 A:middle L:90% when we value oil companies, we value them based 399 00:20:26.250 --> 00:20:30.410 A:middle L:90% on their known oil reserves. And yet we're saying 400 00:20:30.410 --> 00:20:32.569 A:middle L:90% that fundamentally, for the safety of the planet, 401 00:20:32.579 --> 00:20:33.509 A:middle L:90% those reserves can't be used. You can't make any 402 00:20:33.509 --> 00:20:37.279 A:middle L:90% money on those. You can maybe take out 20% 403 00:20:37.289 --> 00:20:40.769 A:middle L:90% of the of the coal and maybe 40% of the 404 00:20:40.769 --> 00:20:41.970 A:middle L:90% oil. But beyond that, we'll never get to 405 00:20:41.970 --> 00:20:44.240 A:middle L:90% a two degree rise. We're going to be a 406 00:20:44.250 --> 00:20:45.420 A:middle L:90% much higher, much higher temperature rise if we do 407 00:20:45.420 --> 00:20:48.880 A:middle L:90% that. So this is where these systems sort of 408 00:20:48.890 --> 00:20:51.289 A:middle L:90% interact, and it's more than just ice. Of 409 00:20:51.289 --> 00:20:52.490 A:middle L:90% course, we talked a little bit about when we 410 00:20:52.490 --> 00:20:55.619 A:middle L:90% talk about tipping points. We often use things like 411 00:20:55.619 --> 00:20:57.250 A:middle L:90% Arctic sea ice or the West Antarctic ice sheet, 412 00:20:57.250 --> 00:21:00.599 A:middle L:90% which I talked a little bit about, or Greenland 413 00:21:00.609 --> 00:21:02.730 A:middle L:90% will, how much ice will we lose at what 414 00:21:02.730 --> 00:21:03.809 A:middle L:90% time period? How do we predict that? But 415 00:21:03.809 --> 00:21:07.480 A:middle L:90% it's also biotic systems. It systems like as climate 416 00:21:07.480 --> 00:21:11.099 A:middle L:90% change. We have big you know, we have 417 00:21:11.109 --> 00:21:14.220 A:middle L:90% uncertainties around the time the the rainfall patterns that will 418 00:21:14.230 --> 00:21:17.980 A:middle L:90% will emerge in the Amazon basin. Those rainfall patterns 419 00:21:17.990 --> 00:21:21.400 A:middle L:90% are what keep that Amazon basin as a huge carbon 420 00:21:21.400 --> 00:21:22.660 A:middle L:90% pump, taking a carbon out of the atmosphere. 421 00:21:22.670 --> 00:21:26.009 A:middle L:90% If that turns to Savannah or dry forest, its 422 00:21:26.009 --> 00:21:29.240 A:middle L:90% capacity to do that changes with global ramifications. That's 423 00:21:29.240 --> 00:21:30.400 A:middle L:90% another tipping point. We don't know exactly at what 424 00:21:30.400 --> 00:21:33.549 A:middle L:90% temperature point that will happen. We know that it's 425 00:21:33.549 --> 00:21:34.900 A:middle L:90% out there, and these tipping points, I think 426 00:21:34.900 --> 00:21:38.930 A:middle L:90% , are cause for, um, for action. 427 00:21:38.940 --> 00:21:41.180 A:middle L:90% And I want to talk a little bit of how 428 00:21:41.180 --> 00:21:44.700 A:middle L:90% that sort of leads to planetary hundreds. So once 429 00:21:44.700 --> 00:21:48.039 A:middle L:90% you know there's a risk, you often time try 430 00:21:48.039 --> 00:21:49.950 A:middle L:90% and set up. Societally agreed upon actions that mitigate 431 00:21:49.950 --> 00:21:52.299 A:middle L:90% that risk. And I like the planetary boundaries I 432 00:21:52.299 --> 00:21:55.319 A:middle L:90% like to use as the analogy of the stops are 433 00:21:55.319 --> 00:21:56.559 A:middle L:90% a speed limit. We know that there's a sort 434 00:21:56.559 --> 00:21:59.500 A:middle L:90% of increased risk of driving faster and faster on the 435 00:21:59.500 --> 00:22:00.859 A:middle L:90% highway, and we also know there's nothing magical about 436 00:22:00.859 --> 00:22:03.980 A:middle L:90% 65 66 a little bit worse, seven little bit 437 00:22:03.980 --> 00:22:06.880 A:middle L:90% worse than that. 54 a little bit better. 438 00:22:06.890 --> 00:22:10.160 A:middle L:90% We've decided as a society that 65 some states have 439 00:22:10.160 --> 00:22:11.910 A:middle L:90% set a little higher. Some states a little lower 440 00:22:11.920 --> 00:22:15.200 A:middle L:90% is a manageable amount of risk. It still allows 441 00:22:15.200 --> 00:22:17.049 A:middle L:90% us to get down the road at a reasonable speed 442 00:22:17.940 --> 00:22:19.079 A:middle L:90% . So we figured that one out and we kind 443 00:22:19.079 --> 00:22:21.480 A:middle L:90% of agree on that. We don't think too much 444 00:22:21.480 --> 00:22:22.400 A:middle L:90% about it, but we have a much harder time 445 00:22:22.400 --> 00:22:25.670 A:middle L:90% doing at a planetary scale. Partially, it's because 446 00:22:25.670 --> 00:22:26.740 A:middle L:90% we have very weak global governance. But that's also 447 00:22:26.740 --> 00:22:30.710 A:middle L:90% partially because we have a harder time even understanding where 448 00:22:30.710 --> 00:22:33.569 A:middle L:90% those speed limits should be set. And so planetary 449 00:22:33.569 --> 00:22:37.099 A:middle L:90% boundaries is an attempt to put up those speed limit 450 00:22:37.099 --> 00:22:40.650 A:middle L:90% signs. So the way that this has done is 451 00:22:40.650 --> 00:22:42.430 A:middle L:90% a whole group of scientists have gotten together to say 452 00:22:42.440 --> 00:22:45.470 A:middle L:90% We know about climate change. We know that ocean 453 00:22:45.470 --> 00:22:48.170 A:middle L:90% acidification is a big issue, and as major ramifications 454 00:22:48.180 --> 00:22:51.200 A:middle L:90% , we know the stratospheric ozone is something is something 455 00:22:51.200 --> 00:22:52.819 A:middle L:90% we need to worry about. These are what we 456 00:22:52.819 --> 00:22:55.119 A:middle L:90% often call the Big Three. We also have bio 457 00:22:55.170 --> 00:22:57.740 A:middle L:90% bio geochemical cycles like nitrogen and phosphorus, which we 458 00:22:57.750 --> 00:23:00.690 A:middle L:90% we have altered two amazing degrees and we know that 459 00:23:00.690 --> 00:23:03.700 A:middle L:90% those have impacts on the planet, dead zones and 460 00:23:03.700 --> 00:23:06.380 A:middle L:90% other other feedbacks. We have global. We have 461 00:23:06.390 --> 00:23:08.049 A:middle L:90% global freshwater use, which were increasingly use about a 462 00:23:08.059 --> 00:23:11.450 A:middle L:90% little over 50% of that now global land system change 463 00:23:11.460 --> 00:23:14.720 A:middle L:90% and biodiversity loss. We often call these the slow 464 00:23:14.720 --> 00:23:17.670 A:middle L:90% variables because their feedbacks are slower. We know that 465 00:23:17.670 --> 00:23:19.359 A:middle L:90% biodiversity loss is tremendously important and it will come back 466 00:23:19.359 --> 00:23:22.279 A:middle L:90% to bite us. But it's much harder to say 467 00:23:22.279 --> 00:23:25.420 A:middle L:90% exactly when where and which species, so that we 468 00:23:25.420 --> 00:23:26.710 A:middle L:90% consider these more slow variables. And then we have 469 00:23:26.710 --> 00:23:29.740 A:middle L:90% these things which are like we don't quite know, 470 00:23:29.740 --> 00:23:30.849 A:middle L:90% even how to quantify. We're pretty sure that if 471 00:23:30.849 --> 00:23:33.710 A:middle L:90% you keep putting a lot of novel chemical compounds out 472 00:23:33.710 --> 00:23:36.990 A:middle L:90% in the environment, that, too has problems but 473 00:23:36.990 --> 00:23:37.599 A:middle L:90% really hard to come up with. How much is 474 00:23:37.599 --> 00:23:40.670 A:middle L:90% okay? Because it varies a lot on a chemical 475 00:23:40.839 --> 00:23:44.230 A:middle L:90% and and atmospheric aerosol loading in the same space. 476 00:23:44.240 --> 00:23:47.269 A:middle L:90% This is one of those places where scientists are struggling 477 00:23:47.279 --> 00:23:48.279 A:middle L:90% to amass a lot of different data, to say 478 00:23:48.279 --> 00:23:52.680 A:middle L:90% something policy relevant for the world. So, um 479 00:23:52.690 --> 00:23:55.500 A:middle L:90% , if you look at so this is how it's 480 00:23:55.500 --> 00:23:56.960 A:middle L:90% done, you have a safe space, and this 481 00:23:56.970 --> 00:24:00.519 A:middle L:90% space is essentially saying, if we do, if 482 00:24:00.519 --> 00:24:02.549 A:middle L:90% we change at this rate, if you lose biological 483 00:24:02.549 --> 00:24:03.279 A:middle L:90% integrity at this rate, if we change climate at 484 00:24:03.279 --> 00:24:06.670 A:middle L:90% this rate, if it's below that area, we're 485 00:24:06.670 --> 00:24:08.250 A:middle L:90% probably not going to push ourselves out of that sweet 486 00:24:08.250 --> 00:24:11.259 A:middle L:90% spot. That is the hollow seen that all of 487 00:24:11.259 --> 00:24:12.730 A:middle L:90% our civilization has grown up in these basic things that 488 00:24:12.730 --> 00:24:15.890 A:middle L:90% we depend on, um And then beyond that, 489 00:24:15.900 --> 00:24:17.519 A:middle L:90% we've got a zone of uncertainty where those risks are 490 00:24:17.519 --> 00:24:18.670 A:middle L:90% pretty highly better start worrying about it and the zone 491 00:24:18.670 --> 00:24:22.160 A:middle L:90% of really high risks. Um, and in pre 492 00:24:22.160 --> 00:24:25.130 A:middle L:90% industrial times, of course, we were among all 493 00:24:25.130 --> 00:24:26.119 A:middle L:90% the other species that had very little impact on the 494 00:24:26.119 --> 00:24:29.819 A:middle L:90% planet. We're doing much to the planet. Um 495 00:24:29.829 --> 00:24:33.119 A:middle L:90% , by 1950 we've already seen large scale biodiversity loss 496 00:24:33.130 --> 00:24:34.750 A:middle L:90% to a stage, which is safe to say that 497 00:24:34.750 --> 00:24:37.029 A:middle L:90% the rate of change, even in 1950 of biodiversity 498 00:24:37.029 --> 00:24:40.640 A:middle L:90% loss, was high enough to cause problems when they 499 00:24:40.640 --> 00:24:42.079 A:middle L:90% come back to bite us in what stays still still 500 00:24:42.079 --> 00:24:45.609 A:middle L:90% in debate in 1970 we start to see a little 501 00:24:45.609 --> 00:24:48.460 A:middle L:90% bit more increased both because we start to see the 502 00:24:48.460 --> 00:24:51.380 A:middle L:90% stratospheric ozone depletion ramping up, and we start to 503 00:24:51.380 --> 00:24:53.579 A:middle L:90% see climate change ramping up its not until 1990 that 504 00:24:53.579 --> 00:24:56.900 A:middle L:90% we see we have a huge problem with the ozone 505 00:24:56.190 --> 00:24:59.359 A:middle L:90% and we better do something about it and we are 506 00:24:59.359 --> 00:25:00.160 A:middle L:90% doing something about it at that point. But this 507 00:25:00.170 --> 00:25:03.500 A:middle L:90% is the rate of depletion and in 1990 it was 508 00:25:03.500 --> 00:25:06.660 A:middle L:90% huge. Um, and we've also now seen with 509 00:25:06.660 --> 00:25:10.160 A:middle L:90% the massive increase use of fertilizer, loss of increased 510 00:25:10.170 --> 00:25:12.269 A:middle L:90% lots of an increase in fostering. And then that's 511 00:25:12.269 --> 00:25:15.730 A:middle L:90% that's the current sort of status of that. Many 512 00:25:15.730 --> 00:25:18.119 A:middle L:90% of these current systems are intensely the high risk and 513 00:25:18.119 --> 00:25:21.839 A:middle L:90% a few of them we can't measure now. I 514 00:25:21.839 --> 00:25:23.059 A:middle L:90% think this is another part of the narrative because it 515 00:25:23.069 --> 00:25:26.009 A:middle L:90% allows us to start thinking about about speed limits. 516 00:25:26.190 --> 00:25:29.000 A:middle L:90% The problem with it, of course, is that 517 00:25:29.000 --> 00:25:32.319 A:middle L:90% the Globe doesn't have a very good mechanism for acting 518 00:25:32.319 --> 00:25:34.089 A:middle L:90% on those speed limits. We've been talking about climate 519 00:25:34.089 --> 00:25:37.019 A:middle L:90% change for a long time. We made some major 520 00:25:37.019 --> 00:25:38.589 A:middle L:90% progress in Paris last year, but it's still a 521 00:25:38.589 --> 00:25:41.720 A:middle L:90% long way from getting that under control. So what 522 00:25:41.720 --> 00:25:44.230 A:middle L:90% I think what I want to do now is talk 523 00:25:44.230 --> 00:25:47.220 A:middle L:90% a little bit about how you move from these narratives 524 00:25:47.230 --> 00:25:49.259 A:middle L:90% of mapping the decline, which is a really depressing 525 00:25:49.259 --> 00:25:53.440 A:middle L:90% job to working towards the solutions and and providing me 526 00:25:53.450 --> 00:25:56.009 A:middle L:90% the tools to get towards what I would consider a 527 00:25:56.009 --> 00:25:57.970 A:middle L:90% transformation, the transformation of how we live on this 528 00:25:57.970 --> 00:26:00.349 A:middle L:90% planet, Um, and and then what? And 529 00:26:00.349 --> 00:26:03.349 A:middle L:90% then sort of how science plays into that, what 530 00:26:03.349 --> 00:26:06.890 A:middle L:90% the role that science plays into that. I think 531 00:26:06.890 --> 00:26:10.140 A:middle L:90% two things that are important here are both getting the 532 00:26:10.140 --> 00:26:11.950 A:middle L:90% evidence together and presenting it in a way that can 533 00:26:11.950 --> 00:26:15.640 A:middle L:90% really change people's behavior and lives. And I put 534 00:26:15.640 --> 00:26:18.660 A:middle L:90% this up here because there's a really key example of 535 00:26:18.660 --> 00:26:22.720 A:middle L:90% a very simple thing that had a very large impact 536 00:26:22.730 --> 00:26:25.839 A:middle L:90% for many people around the world. And, you 537 00:26:25.839 --> 00:26:29.000 A:middle L:90% know, when Bill Gates decided to shift from running 538 00:26:29.000 --> 00:26:33.079 A:middle L:90% Microsoft to quit early and really devote his efforts to 539 00:26:33.079 --> 00:26:37.390 A:middle L:90% the foundation. And he attributes that to one graphic 540 00:26:37.400 --> 00:26:41.420 A:middle L:90% in the newspaper, which showed the seven preventable causes 541 00:26:41.430 --> 00:26:45.420 A:middle L:90% of childhood mortality clearly and definitively. And he's like 542 00:26:45.420 --> 00:26:45.750 A:middle L:90% , you know, this is what I need to 543 00:26:45.750 --> 00:26:48.789 A:middle L:90% do, like I have enough money to help solve 544 00:26:48.789 --> 00:26:51.450 A:middle L:90% these problems. Let's get on with it. And 545 00:26:51.450 --> 00:26:52.400 A:middle L:90% his thesis in this is really that If you show 546 00:26:52.400 --> 00:26:55.579 A:middle L:90% people the problems and you show people the solutions, 547 00:26:55.589 --> 00:26:56.680 A:middle L:90% they will be moved to act and I would say 548 00:26:56.690 --> 00:26:59.190 A:middle L:90% , God, I wish it was quite that simple 549 00:26:59.190 --> 00:27:00.660 A:middle L:90% but or maybe it is. But I don't know 550 00:27:00.660 --> 00:27:02.539 A:middle L:90% quite how to show people the solutions in a way 551 00:27:02.539 --> 00:27:03.809 A:middle L:90% they'll act on yet because I think there's some steps 552 00:27:03.809 --> 00:27:06.950 A:middle L:90% involved in doing that. When I think about those 553 00:27:06.950 --> 00:27:11.059 A:middle L:90% steps that act, that collective action towards sustainability transition 554 00:27:11.140 --> 00:27:12.890 A:middle L:90% , I think of a few things that would create 555 00:27:12.890 --> 00:27:17.480 A:middle L:90% the leverage points for doing and the first. The 556 00:27:17.480 --> 00:27:18.210 A:middle L:90% first, I think, is what we're going for 557 00:27:18.259 --> 00:27:21.890 A:middle L:90% long term is this change mindset. How do we 558 00:27:21.890 --> 00:27:23.690 A:middle L:90% move from a culture that wants to hold on to 559 00:27:23.690 --> 00:27:26.829 A:middle L:90% its definition of the middle class culture? That recognizes 560 00:27:26.829 --> 00:27:30.630 A:middle L:90% that if we're going to move 3.5 billion people more 561 00:27:30.630 --> 00:27:32.670 A:middle L:90% into the middle class in the next 20 years, 562 00:27:33.039 --> 00:27:34.240 A:middle L:90% which is what we're going to do, we have 563 00:27:34.240 --> 00:27:37.869 A:middle L:90% to redefine what it means to be successful as a 564 00:27:37.869 --> 00:27:40.069 A:middle L:90% middle class citizen of the world. There's no other 565 00:27:40.069 --> 00:27:41.279 A:middle L:90% real choice in that space, and that's not just 566 00:27:41.279 --> 00:27:44.019 A:middle L:90% for the people entering. That's for the people that 567 00:27:44.019 --> 00:27:45.890 A:middle L:90% are already here. It's not pulling up the ladder 568 00:27:45.890 --> 00:27:48.359 A:middle L:90% and saying Look enough already, we're here everyone else 569 00:27:48.359 --> 00:27:49.369 A:middle L:90% has got to stop. It's not gonna work that 570 00:27:49.369 --> 00:27:53.660 A:middle L:90% way. And so we haven't developed a change mindset 571 00:27:55.039 --> 00:27:56.670 A:middle L:90% . But the developer change mindset. I think you 572 00:27:56.670 --> 00:27:59.210 A:middle L:90% need change mechanisms. You need to know how you're 573 00:27:59.210 --> 00:28:02.220 A:middle L:90% going to get there because you can't get to change 574 00:28:02.220 --> 00:28:03.309 A:middle L:90% mindsets. You have some idea that your actions will 575 00:28:03.309 --> 00:28:07.049 A:middle L:90% actually cause change. And to do that well, 576 00:28:07.049 --> 00:28:08.210 A:middle L:90% I think you need goals. And for goals you 577 00:28:08.210 --> 00:28:11.250 A:middle L:90% need information, right? I would argue we actually 578 00:28:11.250 --> 00:28:14.859 A:middle L:90% have made major progress right here. And here is 579 00:28:14.859 --> 00:28:17.400 A:middle L:90% where we're having the proper, um, and so 580 00:28:17.410 --> 00:28:18.119 A:middle L:90% in information, I don't think you can argue that 581 00:28:18.119 --> 00:28:22.299 A:middle L:90% we're lacking information anymore or connectivity and information. This 582 00:28:22.299 --> 00:28:25.150 A:middle L:90% is just a global map of the Facebook friends of 583 00:28:25.150 --> 00:28:26.720 A:middle L:90% the world. With a billion people in that network 584 00:28:26.720 --> 00:28:29.769 A:middle L:90% . There's a lot of information exchange, but it's 585 00:28:29.769 --> 00:28:32.559 A:middle L:90% not just Facebook. Of course. We have three 586 00:28:32.559 --> 00:28:36.039 A:middle L:90% billion Internet users, about 44% of households around the 587 00:28:36.039 --> 00:28:38.359 A:middle L:90% world, seven billion mobile phone subscribers. Facebook. 588 00:28:40.140 --> 00:28:42.730 A:middle L:90% We'll have 25 plus billion connected devices by 2020. 589 00:28:42.730 --> 00:28:45.759 A:middle L:90% It just makes my head split. Um, and 590 00:28:45.759 --> 00:28:49.099 A:middle L:90% so the connectivity is not the issue anymore. We 591 00:28:49.099 --> 00:28:52.460 A:middle L:90% don't have. We have certainly work to do to 592 00:28:52.460 --> 00:28:56.349 A:middle L:90% make better transfer, to create better transparency and better 593 00:28:56.359 --> 00:28:59.460 A:middle L:90% interoperability of the information. We're walking around the globe 594 00:28:59.940 --> 00:29:02.769 A:middle L:90% , but those aren't the major obstacles anymore. And 595 00:29:02.769 --> 00:29:04.630 A:middle L:90% I also think that in 2015 we've made a lot 596 00:29:04.630 --> 00:29:07.730 A:middle L:90% of major changes and sort of defining those goals. 597 00:29:07.730 --> 00:29:08.539 A:middle L:90% And of course, the largest one of that was 598 00:29:08.539 --> 00:29:11.039 A:middle L:90% the major work in sort of defining the global goals 599 00:29:11.039 --> 00:29:15.059 A:middle L:90% for sustainable development. I mean, the sustainable development 600 00:29:15.059 --> 00:29:17.130 A:middle L:90% goals are the trillion dollar project that we as a 601 00:29:17.130 --> 00:29:19.609 A:middle L:90% global and embarked on. And it will dwarf other 602 00:29:19.609 --> 00:29:25.700 A:middle L:90% goal sets in terms of shaping the trajectory of of 603 00:29:25.710 --> 00:29:30.009 A:middle L:90% major organizations and major governments focused on development and sustainability 604 00:29:30.019 --> 00:29:33.450 A:middle L:90% and increasingly, on biodiversity conservation. Those are now 605 00:29:33.460 --> 00:29:37.200 A:middle L:90% interwoven in these new goals, but it's not just 606 00:29:37.200 --> 00:29:38.210 A:middle L:90% the global goals. Of course we had the Paris 607 00:29:38.619 --> 00:29:41.829 A:middle L:90% , the Paris Conference of Parties in which was, 608 00:29:41.839 --> 00:29:45.200 A:middle L:90% uh, by all accounts, one of the more 609 00:29:45.210 --> 00:29:47.990 A:middle L:90% one of the most successful events we've seen in milestone 610 00:29:47.990 --> 00:29:48.789 A:middle L:90% story climate change. We have a ton of work 611 00:29:48.789 --> 00:29:51.730 A:middle L:90% to do there, but we did bring people together 612 00:29:51.740 --> 00:29:56.029 A:middle L:90% three times in 2015 around sustainability events. Global leaders 613 00:29:56.039 --> 00:29:59.250 A:middle L:90% that's unprecedented. And we had global leaders of all 614 00:29:59.250 --> 00:30:00.500 A:middle L:90% types stepping forward to say It's time for change. 615 00:30:00.500 --> 00:30:03.700 A:middle L:90% It's time for a new way of thinking, and 616 00:30:03.700 --> 00:30:06.200 A:middle L:90% I think that's best represented by the pope's encyclical that 617 00:30:06.200 --> 00:30:07.559 A:middle L:90% came out in 2015. Or, you know, 618 00:30:07.569 --> 00:30:11.150 A:middle L:90% statements like this in an encyclical from a leader of 619 00:30:11.150 --> 00:30:12.299 A:middle L:90% one of the major religions of the world. It 620 00:30:12.299 --> 00:30:17.700 A:middle L:90% changes the narrative around the issue. Human induced climate 621 00:30:17.700 --> 00:30:19.640 A:middle L:90% change is a scientific reality, and it's effective and 622 00:30:19.640 --> 00:30:22.950 A:middle L:90% it's effective. Control is a moral imperative for humanity 623 00:30:23.170 --> 00:30:26.299 A:middle L:90% that brings a whole new group into the into the 624 00:30:26.299 --> 00:30:29.109 A:middle L:90% conversation, a group that I have no access to 625 00:30:29.190 --> 00:30:30.759 A:middle L:90% . And that's hugely important when we're starting to try 626 00:30:30.759 --> 00:30:33.240 A:middle L:90% and create a change mindset. Because what happens in 627 00:30:33.240 --> 00:30:36.420 A:middle L:90% churches is just as important to what happens in lecture 628 00:30:36.420 --> 00:30:38.029 A:middle L:90% halls, arguably in many places. More important, 629 00:30:38.039 --> 00:30:41.160 A:middle L:90% so getting out outside of our own comfort space to 630 00:30:41.160 --> 00:30:44.859 A:middle L:90% create these kind of opportunities and create partnerships to do 631 00:30:44.859 --> 00:30:45.990 A:middle L:90% that, I think is critical. But here's what 632 00:30:45.990 --> 00:30:48.339 A:middle L:90% I think we have a problem, and that's these 633 00:30:48.339 --> 00:30:52.339 A:middle L:90% change mechanisms. Uh, and for me, I 634 00:30:52.339 --> 00:30:53.589 A:middle L:90% think part of that is a science problem and part 635 00:30:53.589 --> 00:30:56.990 A:middle L:90% of It's a translation of science problem how we do 636 00:30:56.990 --> 00:30:57.599 A:middle L:90% it, how we translated who were involved in the 637 00:30:57.599 --> 00:31:00.289 A:middle L:90% scientific process, how we know where we're going as 638 00:31:00.289 --> 00:31:03.630 A:middle L:90% a community and then to me. I think this 639 00:31:03.630 --> 00:31:07.559 A:middle L:90% is sort of what should science look like to help 640 00:31:07.559 --> 00:31:10.460 A:middle L:90% us steer this planetary aircraft science and the Anthropocene? 641 00:31:11.039 --> 00:31:12.009 A:middle L:90% Should we be rethinking how we do our work? 642 00:31:12.019 --> 00:31:14.650 A:middle L:90% And I think the answer is pretty clearly yes. 643 00:31:14.660 --> 00:31:15.809 A:middle L:90% Sciences. You know, the scientific institutions of the 644 00:31:15.809 --> 00:31:18.789 A:middle L:90% world are old institutions. They have venerable traditions. 645 00:31:18.799 --> 00:31:22.210 A:middle L:90% Many of them are really, really good. You 646 00:31:22.210 --> 00:31:23.589 A:middle L:90% cannot say that they're the fastest evolving systems in the 647 00:31:23.589 --> 00:31:26.279 A:middle L:90% world. Um, and and and yet and many 648 00:31:26.279 --> 00:31:30.920 A:middle L:90% systems are need for information has changed radically in the 649 00:31:30.920 --> 00:31:33.690 A:middle L:90% past 100 years. So thinking about how science reacts 650 00:31:33.690 --> 00:31:36.359 A:middle L:90% to those needs, I think is a worthy endeavor 651 00:31:37.039 --> 00:31:38.200 A:middle L:90% . Um and I think of it as a scientist 652 00:31:38.210 --> 00:31:40.250 A:middle L:90% , So I like to look at it. So 653 00:31:40.250 --> 00:31:41.720 A:middle L:90% what does my life look like? This is how 654 00:31:41.720 --> 00:31:42.259 A:middle L:90% I spent most of my training. And I think 655 00:31:42.259 --> 00:31:45.160 A:middle L:90% a lot of scientists spend their training. We look 656 00:31:45.160 --> 00:31:45.839 A:middle L:90% at organisations, we look at systems, we try 657 00:31:45.839 --> 00:31:48.170 A:middle L:90% to understand how things and I think for a long 658 00:31:48.170 --> 00:31:52.220 A:middle L:90% time many parts of society were content with, with 659 00:31:52.230 --> 00:31:53.799 A:middle L:90% a large fraction of science being devoted to that activity 660 00:31:53.829 --> 00:31:56.730 A:middle L:90% as they saw that fundamental activity critical for the for 661 00:31:56.730 --> 00:32:00.579 A:middle L:90% the for the sort of increase in the prosperity of 662 00:32:00.579 --> 00:32:04.910 A:middle L:90% their countries because it builds innovation also critical just for 663 00:32:04.920 --> 00:32:07.160 A:middle L:90% the more applied branches of science. But more and 664 00:32:07.160 --> 00:32:10.769 A:middle L:90% more today, scientific communities are being asked to get 665 00:32:10.779 --> 00:32:15.690 A:middle L:90% out of their own space and create much more integrated 666 00:32:15.690 --> 00:32:17.730 A:middle L:90% predictions of how systems not only will do work but 667 00:32:17.730 --> 00:32:21.640 A:middle L:90% will work. Not only might work, but what 668 00:32:21.650 --> 00:32:22.730 A:middle L:90% will I predict? Predict. So if I study 669 00:32:22.730 --> 00:32:24.930 A:middle L:90% , excuse me if I studied ticks, I used 670 00:32:24.930 --> 00:32:28.039 A:middle L:90% to study ticks. I now need to study lives 671 00:32:28.039 --> 00:32:30.309 A:middle L:90% disease risk. But I am a tick biologist, 672 00:32:30.309 --> 00:32:31.259 A:middle L:90% so I don't know how to study lines disease risk 673 00:32:31.339 --> 00:32:34.410 A:middle L:90% . So I'd better learn how to work with others 674 00:32:34.410 --> 00:32:36.930 A:middle L:90% in my field and in other fields to make predicted 675 00:32:36.930 --> 00:32:39.160 A:middle L:90% , predict predictions that takes my biology a tremendous amount 676 00:32:39.160 --> 00:32:44.089 A:middle L:90% of detail of biology and gets that credibly into predictions 677 00:32:44.109 --> 00:32:45.480 A:middle L:90% that decision makers can use. The same goes If 678 00:32:45.480 --> 00:32:49.250 A:middle L:90% I study wheat, I'm now studying crop dynamics through 679 00:32:49.250 --> 00:32:51.849 A:middle L:90% time and understanding how we yields are going to change 680 00:32:51.940 --> 00:32:53.579 A:middle L:90% . If I'm working, working in droughts or water 681 00:32:53.589 --> 00:32:57.000 A:middle L:90% , it's understanding how drought will change in the future 682 00:32:57.140 --> 00:33:00.170 A:middle L:90% . It's building our fundamental information into applied predictions that 683 00:33:00.170 --> 00:33:04.490 A:middle L:90% have been accessible to decision communities. This is hard 684 00:33:04.490 --> 00:33:06.500 A:middle L:90% to do individually. As a scientist, a lot 685 00:33:06.500 --> 00:33:08.390 A:middle L:90% of scientists are already doing it in teams. Um 686 00:33:08.400 --> 00:33:10.420 A:middle L:90% , and I think, actually asked as much greater 687 00:33:10.420 --> 00:33:14.410 A:middle L:90% at this point because the urgency for changes greater so 688 00:33:14.410 --> 00:33:15.640 A:middle L:90% we're not only being asked to scientists to do this 689 00:33:15.650 --> 00:33:19.220 A:middle L:90% , but it's also you can't really be effective or 690 00:33:19.220 --> 00:33:22.049 A:middle L:90% your your effectiveness is blunted unless you bring in the 691 00:33:22.049 --> 00:33:23.609 A:middle L:90% decision communities effectively as well. So if you're working 692 00:33:23.609 --> 00:33:25.450 A:middle L:90% on technology and then you want to work on Lime's 693 00:33:25.450 --> 00:33:29.059 A:middle L:90% disease, are you talking to the CDC who actually 694 00:33:29.059 --> 00:33:30.440 A:middle L:90% has some control and behavior, and how do we 695 00:33:30.440 --> 00:33:32.730 A:middle L:90% work on Lime's disease? Similarly, if you're working 696 00:33:32.730 --> 00:33:37.680 A:middle L:90% on, if you're working in a crop dynamics and 697 00:33:37.680 --> 00:33:38.930 A:middle L:90% you're are you working with death row or other major 698 00:33:38.930 --> 00:33:42.490 A:middle L:90% agencies that are interested in how yield will change in 699 00:33:42.490 --> 00:33:45.049 A:middle L:90% the future in southern Europe? In wind, who 700 00:33:45.049 --> 00:33:47.059 A:middle L:90% are the investors and wind? Berkshire Hathaway, Inter 701 00:33:47.059 --> 00:33:50.730 A:middle L:90% American Development Bank. What can you tell them that 702 00:33:50.730 --> 00:33:52.359 A:middle L:90% will change their behavior? How do you fit into 703 00:33:52.359 --> 00:33:55.079 A:middle L:90% this bigger system? And then major, major sort 704 00:33:55.079 --> 00:33:59.019 A:middle L:90% of constituencies that are vitally interested in clean water, 705 00:33:59.029 --> 00:34:02.109 A:middle L:90% like major private sector organizations are looking for answers to 706 00:34:02.109 --> 00:34:04.690 A:middle L:90% how to be citizens in this space and, of 707 00:34:04.690 --> 00:34:06.500 A:middle L:90% course, also how to make a profit. So 708 00:34:06.500 --> 00:34:08.360 A:middle L:90% this is a very difficult space for individual scientists. 709 00:34:08.440 --> 00:34:09.510 A:middle L:90% In fact, I think it's kind of even an 710 00:34:09.510 --> 00:34:13.550 A:middle L:90% unfair space for individual scientists to be it. And 711 00:34:13.940 --> 00:34:16.000 A:middle L:90% but that's but But I think it doesn't mean it's 712 00:34:16.000 --> 00:34:19.110 A:middle L:90% less important. And so when we step back and 713 00:34:19.110 --> 00:34:20.119 A:middle L:90% say, Well, here's the way that we live 714 00:34:20.119 --> 00:34:22.139 A:middle L:90% in, um, we want to create some change 715 00:34:22.139 --> 00:34:22.489 A:middle L:90% with what? We're good at that. Maybe some 716 00:34:22.489 --> 00:34:25.559 A:middle L:90% sustainability science. Um, we're a small group. 717 00:34:25.570 --> 00:34:29.300 A:middle L:90% This is my tribe, my psychologist tribe. Um 718 00:34:29.300 --> 00:34:31.179 A:middle L:90% , and, uh, that's academics. I'm probably 719 00:34:31.190 --> 00:34:36.690 A:middle L:90% 0.5% of academics, small tribe within another sector. 720 00:34:36.690 --> 00:34:39.070 A:middle L:90% Within a larger sector of society, science is largely 721 00:34:39.070 --> 00:34:42.119 A:middle L:90% academic, but not entirely. There's a whole section 722 00:34:42.119 --> 00:34:44.559 A:middle L:90% that's not academic, but who are we trying to 723 00:34:44.559 --> 00:34:45.940 A:middle L:90% influence on this, and how do we scale and 724 00:34:45.940 --> 00:34:47.349 A:middle L:90% how do we get to the places we want to 725 00:34:47.349 --> 00:34:50.550 A:middle L:90% go with our information. So I would say that 726 00:34:50.559 --> 00:34:52.090 A:middle L:90% , you know, were relatively small. And we're 727 00:34:52.090 --> 00:34:54.239 A:middle L:90% trying to get to these guys, you know? 728 00:34:54.250 --> 00:34:57.539 A:middle L:90% And even though he's holding a koala there, these 729 00:34:57.539 --> 00:35:00.280 A:middle L:90% guys aren't scientists, right? They're just not right 730 00:35:00.289 --> 00:35:02.380 A:middle L:90% . And and actually, if you look at the 731 00:35:02.389 --> 00:35:06.190 A:middle L:90% politician tribe and you ask, Well, what tribe 732 00:35:06.190 --> 00:35:07.940 A:middle L:90% do they come from? What kind of monkeys are 733 00:35:07.940 --> 00:35:09.309 A:middle L:90% these? Um, what you find is that, 734 00:35:09.320 --> 00:35:12.309 A:middle L:90% you know, in here is this is this is 735 00:35:12.309 --> 00:35:15.710 A:middle L:90% the tribe of politicians in Brazil, China, Egypt 736 00:35:15.719 --> 00:35:16.059 A:middle L:90% , India, South Korea and the U. S 737 00:35:16.059 --> 00:35:19.550 A:middle L:90% . A. This is where the the tribes that 738 00:35:19.550 --> 00:35:22.170 A:middle L:90% came out so yellow is academia, all of academia 739 00:35:22.539 --> 00:35:24.190 A:middle L:90% . But I'm not sure you can see that. 740 00:35:24.199 --> 00:35:27.530 A:middle L:90% So there it is. Oh, wait. You 741 00:35:27.530 --> 00:35:29.630 A:middle L:90% still can't see that in the US, right? 742 00:35:29.639 --> 00:35:32.449 A:middle L:90% Because that's because we have a grand total of six 743 00:35:32.449 --> 00:35:36.210 A:middle L:90% people in Congress, the Senate, and in the 744 00:35:36.210 --> 00:35:37.960 A:middle L:90% executive branch that are actually in academia. Um, 745 00:35:37.969 --> 00:35:39.599 A:middle L:90% and that's just all of academia. We don't have 746 00:35:39.599 --> 00:35:43.000 A:middle L:90% any sustainability scientists who went that route. We have 747 00:35:43.000 --> 00:35:45.360 A:middle L:90% a few chemists or one chemist, few physicists, 748 00:35:45.369 --> 00:35:47.880 A:middle L:90% some neuroscience, neurosurgeons, power to them, they 749 00:35:47.880 --> 00:35:51.199 A:middle L:90% at least understand science, but that you're gonna have 750 00:35:51.199 --> 00:35:52.989 A:middle L:90% a heck of a time. Moving your agenda is 751 00:35:52.989 --> 00:35:54.469 A:middle L:90% that is the only place you can go. And 752 00:35:54.469 --> 00:35:55.869 A:middle L:90% if you can't even talk, you have no one 753 00:35:55.869 --> 00:36:00.119 A:middle L:90% in your tribe in a position of power. So 754 00:36:00.130 --> 00:36:01.079 A:middle L:90% I don't think we can solve this on our own 755 00:36:01.079 --> 00:36:04.380 A:middle L:90% scientists. And I think this is how we try 756 00:36:04.380 --> 00:36:06.159 A:middle L:90% and do it right now is we get a really 757 00:36:06.159 --> 00:36:07.960 A:middle L:90% cool result and we lobbied across that someone who is 758 00:36:07.960 --> 00:36:10.619 A:middle L:90% a decision maker hoping that it will stick a lot 759 00:36:10.619 --> 00:36:13.480 A:middle L:90% of us are pretty effective at doing that. A 760 00:36:13.480 --> 00:36:15.099 A:middle L:90% lot of us are less effective. It only works 761 00:36:15.099 --> 00:36:16.260 A:middle L:90% some of the time, but it's not a fundamentally 762 00:36:16.260 --> 00:36:19.010 A:middle L:90% good way to do this. Work and other people 763 00:36:19.010 --> 00:36:21.409 A:middle L:90% have found a lot of literature has suggested that the 764 00:36:21.409 --> 00:36:24.059 A:middle L:90% economy to work with intermediaries. So the academics are 765 00:36:24.059 --> 00:36:27.210 A:middle L:90% over here talking to each other more and more. 766 00:36:27.219 --> 00:36:29.630 A:middle L:90% If they can get to a group that can help 767 00:36:29.630 --> 00:36:34.269 A:middle L:90% them build a more cohesive understanding of their subject and 768 00:36:34.269 --> 00:36:37.070 A:middle L:90% then use that evidence to influence decision makers and can 769 00:36:37.079 --> 00:36:42.559 A:middle L:90% vitally important also get the agendas of these people back 770 00:36:42.559 --> 00:36:45.389 A:middle L:90% into the science so that scientists are better at working 771 00:36:45.389 --> 00:36:46.460 A:middle L:90% on the on the agenda items that decision makers want 772 00:36:46.460 --> 00:36:49.860 A:middle L:90% answers to. One of the things that I think 773 00:36:49.869 --> 00:36:52.130 A:middle L:90% most scientists myself included, make this mistake every time 774 00:36:52.130 --> 00:36:54.250 A:middle L:90% they are super excited. To talk to decision makers 775 00:36:54.250 --> 00:36:57.219 A:middle L:90% is that they think they can. I want to 776 00:36:57.219 --> 00:36:59.710 A:middle L:90% tell them about a problem. But most decision makers 777 00:36:59.710 --> 00:37:00.610 A:middle L:90% just want you to solve something they already see is 778 00:37:00.610 --> 00:37:04.230 A:middle L:90% the problem. But they don't want another problem. 779 00:37:04.239 --> 00:37:06.210 A:middle L:90% So you're not gonna get very far saying, Wait 780 00:37:06.210 --> 00:37:07.170 A:middle L:90% , there's a problem you haven't thought of get in 781 00:37:07.170 --> 00:37:10.440 A:middle L:90% line, right? So So in general, you 782 00:37:10.440 --> 00:37:13.900 A:middle L:90% need to be a solution agent as a scientist, 783 00:37:13.909 --> 00:37:15.320 A:middle L:90% not a problem generated. We're really good at showing 784 00:37:15.320 --> 00:37:17.179 A:middle L:90% the problems right now. We need to get better 785 00:37:17.179 --> 00:37:20.210 A:middle L:90% at showing solutions. I think that's a different kind 786 00:37:20.210 --> 00:37:22.210 A:middle L:90% of engagement. So here's the model that a lot 787 00:37:22.210 --> 00:37:22.630 A:middle L:90% of us work on, dude, which is we 788 00:37:22.630 --> 00:37:24.989 A:middle L:90% think of a problem because that's a big problem. 789 00:37:25.000 --> 00:37:27.530 A:middle L:90% I do that as a scientist. I'm trained to 790 00:37:27.530 --> 00:37:29.289 A:middle L:90% do that, figure out what big problems are. 791 00:37:29.300 --> 00:37:31.039 A:middle L:90% I do research. I create knowledge around that problem 792 00:37:31.050 --> 00:37:34.940 A:middle L:90% , and then there's these sort of mystical processes that 793 00:37:34.940 --> 00:37:37.920 A:middle L:90% happen after I'm done creating my knowledge, which are 794 00:37:37.929 --> 00:37:39.920 A:middle L:90% transfer, adoption and diffusion, which are handled by 795 00:37:39.920 --> 00:37:44.039 A:middle L:90% other groups, consultants, policy and business sectors. 796 00:37:44.329 --> 00:37:46.449 A:middle L:90% Which amounts to a lot of us, like writing 797 00:37:46.449 --> 00:37:50.650 A:middle L:90% that paper, figuring out a solution, throwing it 798 00:37:50.650 --> 00:37:52.829 A:middle L:90% over the wall and hoping it hits a passing problem 799 00:37:52.840 --> 00:37:54.440 A:middle L:90% . Um, it sometimes does, but it needs 800 00:37:54.440 --> 00:37:57.019 A:middle L:90% to be working a lot more effectively. And I 801 00:37:57.019 --> 00:37:58.909 A:middle L:90% think the way through that is this thing where we 802 00:37:58.909 --> 00:38:00.219 A:middle L:90% think about our job is engagement. We think about 803 00:38:00.219 --> 00:38:04.250 A:middle L:90% our job is service. We're not that different than 804 00:38:04.250 --> 00:38:06.929 A:middle L:90% other service sectors. We're out here trying to solve 805 00:38:06.929 --> 00:38:09.349 A:middle L:90% problems for a client. We don't like to think 806 00:38:09.349 --> 00:38:10.619 A:middle L:90% of it that way all the time. But really 807 00:38:10.619 --> 00:38:14.570 A:middle L:90% , society is our client. So So if science 808 00:38:14.570 --> 00:38:17.349 A:middle L:90% and policy and society and stakeholders are together engaging difficult 809 00:38:17.349 --> 00:38:21.469 A:middle L:90% problems, we have a better chance of finding solutions 810 00:38:21.469 --> 00:38:24.630 A:middle L:90% that will actually work for those problems. So as 811 00:38:24.639 --> 00:38:27.710 A:middle L:90% Bill suggested, like I have this new job, 812 00:38:27.719 --> 00:38:30.000 A:middle L:90% the future earth, and really that I'm gonna tell 813 00:38:30.000 --> 00:38:30.500 A:middle L:90% you a little about what it is because really, 814 00:38:30.510 --> 00:38:34.039 A:middle L:90% this is the job of future is to help make 815 00:38:34.039 --> 00:38:37.030 A:middle L:90% that a little easier for people to do? Um 816 00:38:37.619 --> 00:38:38.699 A:middle L:90% , so I'll tell you just a little bit about 817 00:38:38.699 --> 00:38:40.389 A:middle L:90% it. We have. We have about a 35 818 00:38:40.389 --> 00:38:45.460 A:middle L:90% year history of getting scientists together around the world around 819 00:38:45.469 --> 00:38:47.840 A:middle L:90% major global change problems, right? Whether that's atmosphere 820 00:38:47.840 --> 00:38:51.579 A:middle L:90% and atmospheric chemistry and how that's changing because of air 821 00:38:51.579 --> 00:38:53.619 A:middle L:90% pollution or whether it's measuring risk or thinking about how 822 00:38:53.619 --> 00:38:59.570 A:middle L:90% governance structures allow people to answer difficult questions or various 823 00:38:59.579 --> 00:39:01.800 A:middle L:90% different types of questions. It started in 1980 when 824 00:39:01.800 --> 00:39:05.250 A:middle L:90% we recognize that the planet is a system and we 825 00:39:05.250 --> 00:39:07.340 A:middle L:90% need to manage it as a system and we need 826 00:39:07.340 --> 00:39:09.190 A:middle L:90% global teams to do that. And then we gradually 827 00:39:09.190 --> 00:39:12.530 A:middle L:90% recognize that it's not just physical science that needs to 828 00:39:12.530 --> 00:39:14.400 A:middle L:90% do this, not just climate, but it also 829 00:39:14.400 --> 00:39:15.869 A:middle L:90% involves a lot of bio geochemical cycles. And then 830 00:39:15.869 --> 00:39:19.699 A:middle L:90% we realized that biodiversity itself is also important, and 831 00:39:19.699 --> 00:39:22.610 A:middle L:90% we need to support global structures to understand what our 832 00:39:22.610 --> 00:39:25.409 A:middle L:90% priorities need to be in researching biodiversity in exploring what 833 00:39:25.409 --> 00:39:28.940 A:middle L:90% biodiversity loss means for the world. And finally, 834 00:39:28.940 --> 00:39:31.340 A:middle L:90% around 1996 we recognize that humans are actually big produce 835 00:39:31.340 --> 00:39:34.280 A:middle L:90% problem and really the only way we're going to find 836 00:39:34.280 --> 00:39:36.340 A:middle L:90% a solution. And there's this whole tribe of people 837 00:39:36.340 --> 00:39:37.739 A:middle L:90% that study humans, and we should support them as 838 00:39:37.739 --> 00:39:40.170 A:middle L:90% well to help get them into the conversation. That's 839 00:39:40.170 --> 00:39:44.840 A:middle L:90% the international human dimensions program. What the funders of 840 00:39:44.840 --> 00:39:46.809 A:middle L:90% this decided and the funders are basically the top 15 841 00:39:46.809 --> 00:39:50.630 A:middle L:90% or so major National Science Foundation's around the world is 842 00:39:50.630 --> 00:39:52.369 A:middle L:90% they weren't getting enough societal benefits out of this structure 843 00:39:52.380 --> 00:39:54.389 A:middle L:90% . A lot of good international communities, not a 844 00:39:54.389 --> 00:39:57.420 A:middle L:90% lot of connection between communities, not a lot of 845 00:39:57.420 --> 00:39:59.639 A:middle L:90% reaching out into other aspects of society. So they 846 00:39:59.639 --> 00:40:01.519 A:middle L:90% scrapped the whole system. It took all the 50,000 847 00:40:01.519 --> 00:40:04.250 A:middle L:90% or so scientists that were part of this and all 848 00:40:04.250 --> 00:40:05.960 A:middle L:90% of the groups and said, We're going to form 849 00:40:05.960 --> 00:40:07.650 A:middle L:90% them into a new group and that's going to be 850 00:40:07.650 --> 00:40:10.179 A:middle L:90% future Earth And the mandate of future is actually quite 851 00:40:10.179 --> 00:40:14.030 A:middle L:90% a bit bigger than the mandate of the previous organizations 852 00:40:14.409 --> 00:40:15.590 A:middle L:90% , and it's sort of seeing here. So we 853 00:40:15.590 --> 00:40:19.289 A:middle L:90% are. We are there to support high quality global 854 00:40:19.289 --> 00:40:21.960 A:middle L:90% sustainability science. That's our that's our role. But 855 00:40:21.969 --> 00:40:24.090 A:middle L:90% but science that is relevant to society's connects with, 856 00:40:24.090 --> 00:40:27.389 A:middle L:90% and we have to connect research communities across disciplines and 857 00:40:27.389 --> 00:40:30.219 A:middle L:90% geography, ease and fundamentally figure out how to drive 858 00:40:30.219 --> 00:40:34.440 A:middle L:90% a step change and how international science engages societal partners 859 00:40:34.510 --> 00:40:38.510 A:middle L:90% and stakeholders. This is not an easy job because 860 00:40:38.519 --> 00:40:42.059 A:middle L:90% , um, we are still in a society which 861 00:40:42.070 --> 00:40:45.550 A:middle L:90% is not has not gone all in on its investment 862 00:40:45.559 --> 00:40:49.639 A:middle L:90% in solutions yet. And the science required to create 863 00:40:49.639 --> 00:40:52.150 A:middle L:90% that innovation and a lot of our work, then 864 00:40:52.150 --> 00:40:54.130 A:middle L:90% , is to sort of build build a movement that 865 00:40:54.130 --> 00:40:57.329 A:middle L:90% allows that to happen, to take to make it 866 00:40:57.329 --> 00:40:59.920 A:middle L:90% as easy as possible for voices to come together around 867 00:40:59.920 --> 00:41:02.099 A:middle L:90% the need to move in this direction. Part of 868 00:41:02.099 --> 00:41:06.230 A:middle L:90% it is actually redefining scientific communities so that they're focused 869 00:41:06.230 --> 00:41:08.329 A:middle L:90% on challenges a little bit more than focused on disciplines 870 00:41:08.340 --> 00:41:12.219 A:middle L:90% . And so we have. We have divided the 871 00:41:12.219 --> 00:41:14.869 A:middle L:90% world into eight major challenges. You we can argue 872 00:41:14.880 --> 00:41:16.300 A:middle L:90% at nauseam about whether they're the right eight. It 873 00:41:16.300 --> 00:41:19.340 A:middle L:90% actually matters. This is the easy part. The 874 00:41:19.340 --> 00:41:22.929 A:middle L:90% hard part is clearing out structures that actually address challenges 875 00:41:22.010 --> 00:41:24.539 A:middle L:90% . So the future of cities with 70% of people 876 00:41:24.539 --> 00:41:27.500 A:middle L:90% living in cities in a very short period of time 877 00:41:27.510 --> 00:41:30.699 A:middle L:90% is a major concern for sustainability. Health and human 878 00:41:30.699 --> 00:41:32.969 A:middle L:90% health and ecological health. Um, production and consumption 879 00:41:32.969 --> 00:41:35.559 A:middle L:90% , how we live lighter on this planet. How 880 00:41:35.559 --> 00:41:37.590 A:middle L:90% do you actually move that into a reality? How 881 00:41:37.590 --> 00:41:38.159 A:middle L:90% do you work on supply chain? So that that 882 00:41:38.159 --> 00:41:42.590 A:middle L:90% happens. Uh, natural capital, Ecosystem Services. 883 00:41:42.599 --> 00:41:45.059 A:middle L:90% How do we value nature in our books at national 884 00:41:45.059 --> 00:41:46.599 A:middle L:90% and sub national levels? How do we translate that 885 00:41:46.599 --> 00:41:50.519 A:middle L:90% value into conservation and protection, and then food, 886 00:41:50.519 --> 00:41:52.010 A:middle L:90% water, energy, providing it, conserving it, 887 00:41:52.019 --> 00:41:54.849 A:middle L:90% Um, working on the linkages between these issues, 888 00:41:54.860 --> 00:42:00.369 A:middle L:90% Um, combating, dealing with adapting to mitigating climate 889 00:42:00.369 --> 00:42:02.230 A:middle L:90% change. What do you do with all the landscapes 890 00:42:02.230 --> 00:42:04.659 A:middle L:90% people are leaving? How do you How do you 891 00:42:04.659 --> 00:42:06.369 A:middle L:90% provide? How do you How do you allow those 892 00:42:06.369 --> 00:42:08.199 A:middle L:90% to be functioning and, uh, and prosperous and 893 00:42:08.199 --> 00:42:10.539 A:middle L:90% then fundamental at all of this is our the government 894 00:42:10.539 --> 00:42:13.579 A:middle L:90% systems that would allow you to do this better. 895 00:42:13.590 --> 00:42:15.969 A:middle L:90% And is the risk management is there a way of 896 00:42:15.969 --> 00:42:17.730 A:middle L:90% communicating risk that's more effective at moving forward. So 897 00:42:17.730 --> 00:42:20.730 A:middle L:90% I'm not gonna build without the inside baseball and how 898 00:42:20.730 --> 00:42:22.530 A:middle L:90% we try and promote these. But I'll just say 899 00:42:22.530 --> 00:42:24.619 A:middle L:90% that a couple of basic bits on how it's organized 900 00:42:24.800 --> 00:42:28.940 A:middle L:90% . Um, so we have about we have a 901 00:42:28.940 --> 00:42:31.500 A:middle L:90% global structure. I got their, uh, secretariat 902 00:42:31.500 --> 00:42:35.050 A:middle L:90% in five countries. We have national committees in about 903 00:42:35.050 --> 00:42:37.880 A:middle L:90% 20 countries. We're working on starting a national national 904 00:42:37.880 --> 00:42:39.360 A:middle L:90% network here in the United States. I think that 905 00:42:39.360 --> 00:42:42.789 A:middle L:90% future Earth needs to have a really strong national network 906 00:42:42.789 --> 00:42:45.159 A:middle L:90% in this country, fundamentally to push our leaders so 907 00:42:45.159 --> 00:42:50.260 A:middle L:90% that this country becomes a global leader in the innovation 908 00:42:50.269 --> 00:42:52.429 A:middle L:90% and science that is needed to support a transition to 909 00:42:52.429 --> 00:42:54.340 A:middle L:90% sustainability. Because we have the biggest philanthropic market in 910 00:42:54.340 --> 00:42:57.929 A:middle L:90% the world because we have the greatest concentration of universities 911 00:42:57.929 --> 00:43:00.739 A:middle L:90% in the world are investment in this future is not 912 00:43:00.739 --> 00:43:02.659 A:middle L:90% near as great as it needs to be. And 913 00:43:02.670 --> 00:43:06.289 A:middle L:90% there's lots of grown for us to gather our voices 914 00:43:06.329 --> 00:43:08.949 A:middle L:90% , act strategically and push our leaders to make a 915 00:43:08.960 --> 00:43:13.469 A:middle L:90% fundamental move in this direction. Um, we also 916 00:43:13.480 --> 00:43:16.840 A:middle L:90% basically, we form knowledge action networks to bring scientists 917 00:43:16.849 --> 00:43:21.809 A:middle L:90% , scientists and stakeholders together around those key challenges. 918 00:43:21.820 --> 00:43:23.000 A:middle L:90% And we'll be and we're rolling those out in a 919 00:43:23.010 --> 00:43:27.610 A:middle L:90% very short period of time, and we are establishing 920 00:43:28.099 --> 00:43:30.280 A:middle L:90% networks that allow people to collaborate not just among academics 921 00:43:30.280 --> 00:43:32.789 A:middle L:90% , but academics and civil society partners. So these 922 00:43:32.789 --> 00:43:37.760 A:middle L:90% are this will be a community online to collaborate, 923 00:43:37.769 --> 00:43:39.639 A:middle L:90% to find partners to generate, to generate funding, 924 00:43:39.639 --> 00:43:44.829 A:middle L:90% to build to build solutions across borders. It's not 925 00:43:44.829 --> 00:43:45.269 A:middle L:90% going to solve everything. I don't think, you 926 00:43:45.269 --> 00:43:47.400 A:middle L:90% know, online solution is all of it. It's 927 00:43:47.409 --> 00:43:50.389 A:middle L:90% only as good as the people using it. But 928 00:43:50.400 --> 00:43:52.820 A:middle L:90% we do need ways of connecting communities and letting them 929 00:43:52.820 --> 00:43:54.780 A:middle L:90% work effectively together. Well, actually, beta testing 930 00:43:54.780 --> 00:43:57.329 A:middle L:90% is now. So if you go onto a website 931 00:43:57.329 --> 00:43:58.389 A:middle L:90% , which I'll tell you at the end, if 932 00:43:58.389 --> 00:44:00.690 A:middle L:90% you're interested in networking and international networks and want to 933 00:44:00.690 --> 00:44:02.190 A:middle L:90% just tell us what we've missed and how we need 934 00:44:02.190 --> 00:44:05.869 A:middle L:90% to connect people better, we'd love your input before 935 00:44:05.869 --> 00:44:07.409 A:middle L:90% we launch it at a global scale. I. 936 00:44:07.989 --> 00:44:10.650 A:middle L:90% So I'm going to tell you just a little bit 937 00:44:10.650 --> 00:44:13.530 A:middle L:90% more about the kind of research, the sort of 938 00:44:13.530 --> 00:44:15.719 A:middle L:90% kind of strategic research that I think is important, 939 00:44:15.730 --> 00:44:16.820 A:middle L:90% that I hope the future roots can help provide. 940 00:44:16.820 --> 00:44:20.659 A:middle L:90% And it's already providing, to some extent research, 941 00:44:20.659 --> 00:44:23.039 A:middle L:90% collaboration, capacity building. So in Cop 21 which 942 00:44:23.039 --> 00:44:27.269 A:middle L:90% is the Paris climate summit we had, there's the 943 00:44:27.269 --> 00:44:30.449 A:middle L:90% kind of science the future supports is the somewhat dull 944 00:44:30.449 --> 00:44:32.050 A:middle L:90% but vitally important job of actually figuring out what our 945 00:44:32.050 --> 00:44:35.730 A:middle L:90% emissions look like around the world. You can't do 946 00:44:35.730 --> 00:44:37.550 A:middle L:90% that with one scientist. You can't do that in 947 00:44:37.550 --> 00:44:39.469 A:middle L:90% one country. It's a distributed problem. And yet 948 00:44:39.480 --> 00:44:43.099 A:middle L:90% , if you can deliver information on our global emissions 949 00:44:43.099 --> 00:44:44.849 A:middle L:90% at the right time to the right audience, which 950 00:44:44.849 --> 00:44:46.690 A:middle L:90% in this case is cop 21 you can have an 951 00:44:46.690 --> 00:44:49.980 A:middle L:90% impact on the narrative going on right there and change 952 00:44:49.980 --> 00:44:52.199 A:middle L:90% the course of that negotiation. But if you deliver 953 00:44:52.199 --> 00:44:53.369 A:middle L:90% it a month later or a month early, it's 954 00:44:53.369 --> 00:44:57.690 A:middle L:90% going to have much less impact. Academic groups don't 955 00:44:57.690 --> 00:44:59.750 A:middle L:90% work on that sort of time scale that policy organized 956 00:44:59.760 --> 00:45:01.940 A:middle L:90% policy groups do. But intermediaries like Feature Earth can 957 00:45:01.940 --> 00:45:05.599 A:middle L:90% help link the two so that the science comes out 958 00:45:05.599 --> 00:45:07.159 A:middle L:90% at the right time. And that's what happened at 959 00:45:07.159 --> 00:45:08.369 A:middle L:90% Cop 21. And we showed for the first time 960 00:45:08.369 --> 00:45:12.320 A:middle L:90% that we're actually declining emissions around the world. There's 961 00:45:12.320 --> 00:45:14.579 A:middle L:90% less emissions this year than there were in 2015, 962 00:45:14.579 --> 00:45:15.869 A:middle L:90% and there were in 2014, primarily because of the 963 00:45:15.869 --> 00:45:19.659 A:middle L:90% massive shift off of coal that China has used has 964 00:45:19.659 --> 00:45:22.699 A:middle L:90% done and and some other reasons as well. That 965 00:45:22.699 --> 00:45:24.059 A:middle L:90% changed the conversation in the room because it was delivered 966 00:45:24.059 --> 00:45:28.159 A:middle L:90% at the right time and I think there's more strategic 967 00:45:28.159 --> 00:45:30.659 A:middle L:90% use of science that we have to undertake. If 968 00:45:30.659 --> 00:45:31.980 A:middle L:90% we want to be major players in decision processes, 969 00:45:32.059 --> 00:45:34.460 A:middle L:90% I think that's what we need to be there to 970 00:45:34.469 --> 00:45:37.440 A:middle L:90% do. Um, this is also so This is 971 00:45:37.440 --> 00:45:38.630 A:middle L:90% also a lot about collaboration. So we work with 972 00:45:38.630 --> 00:45:43.840 A:middle L:90% major funding organizations to move to synchronize funding so that 973 00:45:43.840 --> 00:45:45.760 A:middle L:90% if you have a science funding process, you can 974 00:45:45.760 --> 00:45:50.610 A:middle L:90% also fund the capacity building process and communication process around 975 00:45:50.610 --> 00:45:52.760 A:middle L:90% that science. So it has a greater impact when 976 00:45:52.760 --> 00:45:53.949 A:middle L:90% it's done so communities can form. There aren't just 977 00:45:53.949 --> 00:45:57.530 A:middle L:90% scientists, but there's support for non scientists to be 978 00:45:57.530 --> 00:45:59.539 A:middle L:90% in the science process. So a lot of our 979 00:45:59.539 --> 00:46:01.510 A:middle L:90% work is connecting connecting funding pots together and getting them 980 00:46:01.510 --> 00:46:04.989 A:middle L:90% to work together more effectively and increasing the size of 981 00:46:04.989 --> 00:46:06.800 A:middle L:90% those pots were doing that on food, water, 982 00:46:06.800 --> 00:46:08.400 A:middle L:90% energy. And we're doing a big global assessment of 983 00:46:08.489 --> 00:46:13.309 A:middle L:90% priorities for for solutions in ocean areas right now practice 984 00:46:13.309 --> 00:46:14.639 A:middle L:90% doing in about six others. But those are the 985 00:46:14.639 --> 00:46:15.929 A:middle L:90% ones that I'm involved in, and I think the 986 00:46:15.929 --> 00:46:17.570 A:middle L:90% last bit I feel about this a little bit for 987 00:46:17.570 --> 00:46:21.380 A:middle L:90% those communications. Like, um, we tend to 988 00:46:21.380 --> 00:46:23.969 A:middle L:90% undervalue communication in science, and, uh, we 989 00:46:23.969 --> 00:46:27.889 A:middle L:90% tend to. It's usually an afterthought for most scientists 990 00:46:27.889 --> 00:46:30.360 A:middle L:90% . There's some scientists are fantastic communicators, Um, 991 00:46:30.369 --> 00:46:32.300 A:middle L:90% but most institutions don't do near enough support for that 992 00:46:32.309 --> 00:46:35.679 A:middle L:90% . For the communications to be a strategic and useful 993 00:46:35.679 --> 00:46:36.809 A:middle L:90% as it needs to be. And I think there 994 00:46:36.809 --> 00:46:38.599 A:middle L:90% are multiple audiences we need to talk to. So 995 00:46:38.599 --> 00:46:40.570 A:middle L:90% one of the so we do future with is definitely 996 00:46:40.570 --> 00:46:43.820 A:middle L:90% doing the kind of standard communications that you would do 997 00:46:43.820 --> 00:46:45.460 A:middle L:90% with any scientific group, which is when when a 998 00:46:45.469 --> 00:46:47.849 A:middle L:90% when an important result comes out, we get it 999 00:46:47.849 --> 00:46:50.920 A:middle L:90% out to broader audiences. We get into papers all 1000 00:46:50.920 --> 00:46:52.320 A:middle L:90% over the world. We bring that we bring those 1001 00:46:52.329 --> 00:46:55.539 A:middle L:90% scientists out on stage to help them tell stories to 1002 00:46:55.539 --> 00:47:00.159 A:middle L:90% more and more audiences. But that's only still one 1003 00:47:00.159 --> 00:47:00.760 A:middle L:90% step. And so the other piece that will that 1004 00:47:00.760 --> 00:47:04.039 A:middle L:90% I'm super excited working on is we're also also launching 1005 00:47:04.039 --> 00:47:06.610 A:middle L:90% a magazine, which is focused on this and a 1006 00:47:06.610 --> 00:47:09.190 A:middle L:90% magazine. This is independent journalism, top level global 1007 00:47:09.199 --> 00:47:12.789 A:middle L:90% focused on sustainability, focused on solutions. And so 1008 00:47:12.789 --> 00:47:15.800 A:middle L:90% the idea is to create a digital printing live magazine 1009 00:47:15.880 --> 00:47:17.789 A:middle L:90% in which the world's top riders, entrepreneurs, scientists 1010 00:47:19.090 --> 00:47:22.369 A:middle L:90% , designers will come together to explore how we can 1011 00:47:22.369 --> 00:47:24.750 A:middle L:90% create a human age and Anthropocene we actually want to 1012 00:47:24.750 --> 00:47:28.260 A:middle L:90% live in. How do we make this a really 1013 00:47:28.260 --> 00:47:30.130 A:middle L:90% the most possible exciting time that we can live in 1014 00:47:30.139 --> 00:47:32.619 A:middle L:90% ? I think of this very simply, as once 1015 00:47:32.619 --> 00:47:36.719 A:middle L:90% you realize that you're in that pilot seat. There's 1016 00:47:36.719 --> 00:47:37.909 A:middle L:90% a whole bunch of different conversations you need to have 1017 00:47:38.280 --> 00:47:40.489 A:middle L:90% , and we want to be able to promote and 1018 00:47:40.489 --> 00:47:45.500 A:middle L:90% curate those kind of conversations and instigate dialogue between groups 1019 00:47:45.500 --> 00:47:47.900 A:middle L:90% that aren't talking enough. Currently, that's the goal 1020 00:47:47.900 --> 00:47:52.500 A:middle L:90% of a broader magazine of the broader magazine. So 1021 00:47:52.539 --> 00:47:57.210 A:middle L:90% in in multiple formats and just quickly things like really 1022 00:47:57.210 --> 00:48:00.780 A:middle L:90% high level journalism on finding on food, on on 1023 00:48:00.789 --> 00:48:04.800 A:middle L:90% managing climate risks on the oceans and the future of 1024 00:48:04.800 --> 00:48:07.829 A:middle L:90% oceans, a bunch of others as well. And 1025 00:48:07.829 --> 00:48:09.300 A:middle L:90% it's been this great effort because it involves some phenomenal 1026 00:48:09.300 --> 00:48:12.420 A:middle L:90% collaborators, because there, I mean, I don't 1027 00:48:12.420 --> 00:48:14.440 A:middle L:90% know if you've noticed, but there's a lot of 1028 00:48:14.440 --> 00:48:17.880 A:middle L:90% incredibly good talent in journalism, and a lot of 1029 00:48:17.880 --> 00:48:21.739 A:middle L:90% it is trying to find trying to figure out how 1030 00:48:21.739 --> 00:48:23.380 A:middle L:90% to have a bigger impact because the whole business model 1031 00:48:23.380 --> 00:48:25.219 A:middle L:90% of journalism is still up in the air right now 1032 00:48:25.230 --> 00:48:28.199 A:middle L:90% . There's a lot of incredibly talented people wanted to 1033 00:48:28.199 --> 00:48:30.719 A:middle L:90% have a greater impact with their work and we're and 1034 00:48:30.719 --> 00:48:31.889 A:middle L:90% we've been able to attract people from The Economist in 1035 00:48:31.889 --> 00:48:35.070 A:middle L:90% the New York Times and others to really push push 1036 00:48:35.070 --> 00:48:37.190 A:middle L:90% this forward. So it's been super exciting. I'm 1037 00:48:38.369 --> 00:48:40.219 A:middle L:90% I'm gonna I'm gonna close. I'm gonna close by 1038 00:48:40.230 --> 00:48:43.590 A:middle L:90% just a couple of just a couple of observations. 1039 00:48:44.070 --> 00:48:45.400 A:middle L:90% I think we can generally agree on the challenges. 1040 00:48:45.409 --> 00:48:46.719 A:middle L:90% You might have a risk. It's a little different 1041 00:48:46.719 --> 00:48:49.840 A:middle L:90% than mine. Your list might match up pretty well 1042 00:48:49.849 --> 00:48:51.590 A:middle L:90% . Um, I don't think that's the hard part 1043 00:48:52.070 --> 00:48:53.599 A:middle L:90% . We can also sort of in general at the 1044 00:48:53.599 --> 00:48:57.590 A:middle L:90% 30,000 ft level, agree on the solutions healthy landscapes 1045 00:48:57.590 --> 00:49:00.090 A:middle L:90% , freshwater systems and oceans, clean air, just 1046 00:49:00.099 --> 00:49:02.610 A:middle L:90% equitable societies, livable cities, healthy people. This 1047 00:49:02.610 --> 00:49:05.840 A:middle L:90% part is the easy part. I think the problem 1048 00:49:05.840 --> 00:49:07.420 A:middle L:90% that a lot of scientists have is they want to 1049 00:49:07.420 --> 00:49:09.079 A:middle L:90% put science in the center there. But that's not 1050 00:49:09.079 --> 00:49:12.489 A:middle L:90% Don't think what's in the center services in the sense 1051 00:49:12.969 --> 00:49:14.690 A:middle L:90% like, How do we get there? And service 1052 00:49:14.699 --> 00:49:16.760 A:middle L:90% is science, but it's also collaboration, communication, 1053 00:49:16.760 --> 00:49:20.340 A:middle L:90% innovation, education and engagement. And when I think 1054 00:49:20.340 --> 00:49:22.230 A:middle L:90% of science as a service discipline, I think of 1055 00:49:22.230 --> 00:49:22.710 A:middle L:90% it a little differently. I think of it as 1056 00:49:22.710 --> 00:49:27.380 A:middle L:90% having much more reaching out to other disciplines of having 1057 00:49:27.389 --> 00:49:29.570 A:middle L:90% the much more user focus than some disciplines are. 1058 00:49:29.570 --> 00:49:31.719 A:middle L:90% Currently This idea of co creation reaching out before you 1059 00:49:31.719 --> 00:49:34.989 A:middle L:90% do the science to stakeholder groups, to partners, 1060 00:49:34.989 --> 00:49:36.980 A:middle L:90% to figure out what the needs are to figure out 1061 00:49:36.980 --> 00:49:37.679 A:middle L:90% how you can take that problem off the table, 1062 00:49:37.690 --> 00:49:40.369 A:middle L:90% rather than adding another one to the table on solution 1063 00:49:40.369 --> 00:49:45.699 A:middle L:90% oriented and scalable and transportable. And or I think 1064 00:49:46.170 --> 00:49:49.070 A:middle L:90% I've been now in this sort of new phase where 1065 00:49:49.070 --> 00:49:52.130 A:middle L:90% I'm trying to good science networks, maybe at least 1066 00:49:52.139 --> 00:49:55.250 A:middle L:90% four years or something, and and I had a 1067 00:49:55.250 --> 00:49:58.309 A:middle L:90% conversation with a good friend of mine, Lisa Sheltie 1068 00:49:58.309 --> 00:50:04.400 A:middle L:90% more, who is a fantastic Ecologist working on agricultural 1069 00:50:04.400 --> 00:50:06.940 A:middle L:90% issues in the Midwest, and we're struggling with how 1070 00:50:06.940 --> 00:50:07.739 A:middle L:90% you how you change minds And, you know, 1071 00:50:07.750 --> 00:50:09.030 A:middle L:90% one of the things she said is that you know 1072 00:50:09.030 --> 00:50:13.829 A:middle L:90% we're no longer in a position of finding silver bullets 1073 00:50:13.860 --> 00:50:15.780 A:middle L:90% like our job is to collect and magnify the silver 1074 00:50:15.780 --> 00:50:19.280 A:middle L:90% buckshot like that's what we do. At this point 1075 00:50:19.340 --> 00:50:21.960 A:middle L:90% , there is no single sustainability solution. It's a 1076 00:50:21.960 --> 00:50:23.550 A:middle L:90% lot of little acts. It's a lot of personal 1077 00:50:23.550 --> 00:50:27.469 A:middle L:90% acts with actors at different scales, and there is 1078 00:50:27.469 --> 00:50:30.900 A:middle L:90% no global solution that could be global motivation. Most 1079 00:50:30.900 --> 00:50:31.880 A:middle L:90% of the policy we set in this world is national 1080 00:50:31.880 --> 00:50:35.349 A:middle L:90% or sub national, So we're going to be working 1081 00:50:35.349 --> 00:50:37.250 A:middle L:90% at that level to create change. And a lot 1082 00:50:37.250 --> 00:50:39.389 A:middle L:90% of that, I think, is embracing. That 1083 00:50:39.400 --> 00:50:43.659 A:middle L:90% gives you hope, because you are making small progress 1084 00:50:43.659 --> 00:50:47.119 A:middle L:90% all the time. Um, so you know, 1085 00:50:47.119 --> 00:50:51.670 A:middle L:90% it's Earth Day tomorrow, so I think I just 1086 00:50:51.670 --> 00:50:52.119 A:middle L:90% want to close this. Sort of like if you're 1087 00:50:52.119 --> 00:50:53.500 A:middle L:90% going to get into this work, you have to 1088 00:50:53.500 --> 00:50:57.039 A:middle L:90% have a vision for your future you want and it's 1089 00:50:57.039 --> 00:50:58.730 A:middle L:90% not. It can. It's not a science vision 1090 00:50:58.730 --> 00:51:00.559 A:middle L:90% . It's just where we want to be. So 1091 00:51:00.559 --> 00:51:00.980 A:middle L:90% you know, I think of it this way. 1092 00:51:00.980 --> 00:51:04.989 A:middle L:90% Like imagine if we were to leave our Children nothing 1093 00:51:06.559 --> 00:51:08.260 A:middle L:90% . No poverty, no hunger, no biodiversity loss 1094 00:51:08.260 --> 00:51:10.730 A:middle L:90% , no greenhouse gas emissions. Imagine, like by 1095 00:51:10.730 --> 00:51:15.199 A:middle L:90% 2030 that human health and planetary health were the same 1096 00:51:15.199 --> 00:51:17.750 A:middle L:90% thing. That all of us have access to clean 1097 00:51:17.750 --> 00:51:21.539 A:middle L:90% water and sanitation, that energy efficiency was norm. 1098 00:51:21.739 --> 00:51:24.179 A:middle L:90% Forests are protected, coral reefs are recovering. We 1099 00:51:24.179 --> 00:51:28.579 A:middle L:90% connect in new and different ways. We think differently 1100 00:51:28.590 --> 00:51:30.949 A:middle L:90% . We have to think differently and we act differently 1101 00:51:30.949 --> 00:51:32.719 A:middle L:90% and we cooperate more than we're cooperating right now as 1102 00:51:32.719 --> 00:51:36.699 A:middle L:90% societies. Then by that point, you know we're 1103 00:51:36.699 --> 00:51:39.190 A:middle L:90% connected to the Earth's biosphere, and this really means 1104 00:51:39.190 --> 00:51:44.929 A:middle L:90% that we're global citizens on. I think I may 1105 00:51:44.929 --> 00:51:49.090 A:middle L:90% have 20 years of effective worth left in, and 1106 00:51:49.099 --> 00:51:52.969 A:middle L:90% , um and that's if I'm lucky. And I 1107 00:51:52.969 --> 00:51:55.500 A:middle L:90% just think life is just simply too short for me 1108 00:51:55.500 --> 00:51:59.969 A:middle L:90% to do anything for me to do anything other than 1109 00:51:59.969 --> 00:52:01.619 A:middle L:90% to help make this this kind of goal of reality 1110 00:52:01.869 --> 00:52:06.019 A:middle L:90% , like there's just not enough time to be filtering 1111 00:52:06.019 --> 00:52:07.519 A:middle L:90% around on the edges for me, and I just 1112 00:52:07.519 --> 00:52:07.929 A:middle L:90% feel like I don't have that much time to do 1113 00:52:07.929 --> 00:52:10.070 A:middle L:90% it, and it's not like one person is going 1114 00:52:10.070 --> 00:52:13.130 A:middle L:90% to do it and everyone does it in their own 1115 00:52:13.130 --> 00:52:15.449 A:middle L:90% way. But it's been this really personal thing for 1116 00:52:15.449 --> 00:52:16.179 A:middle L:90% me where I'm sort of like getting up going. 1117 00:52:16.550 --> 00:52:19.519 A:middle L:90% It's got it's got to have any impact somehow. 1118 00:52:19.519 --> 00:52:22.059 A:middle L:90% Otherwise, I'm not sure why I'm here on, 1119 00:52:22.949 --> 00:52:25.719 A:middle L:90% and it's it's fantastic to look around the world. 1120 00:52:25.719 --> 00:52:28.239 A:middle L:90% What gives you hope? I think as you look 1121 00:52:28.239 --> 00:52:30.980 A:middle L:90% around and how many people have made that shift, 1122 00:52:30.650 --> 00:52:32.880 A:middle L:90% how many people are saying it's time for change? 1123 00:52:32.889 --> 00:52:36.329 A:middle L:90% it's time for us to sort of not do things 1124 00:52:36.329 --> 00:52:38.280 A:middle L:90% just as normal that I think it gets you up 1125 00:52:38.280 --> 00:52:40.840 A:middle L:90% in the morning every day. Super exciting. So 1126 00:52:40.840 --> 00:52:43.440 A:middle L:90% I want to thank all of you for coming out 1127 00:52:43.440 --> 00:52:45.989 A:middle L:90% today. Tonight. And if you want more information 1128 00:52:45.989 --> 00:52:47.369 A:middle L:90% on what we're doing the future. There's a pamphlet 1129 00:52:47.369 --> 00:52:50.579 A:middle L:90% I believe on outside. We had printed out for 1130 00:52:50.579 --> 00:52:52.739 A:middle L:90% just a bit more information on the internal workings of 1131 00:52:52.739 --> 00:52:53.809 A:middle L:90% future and how you can get engaged and involved. 1132 00:52:53.820 --> 00:52:55.980 A:middle L:90% Um, I would love to see people engaged. 1133 00:52:55.989 --> 00:52:59.570 A:middle L:90% It's not gonna happen without that engagement. So thanks 1134 00:52:59.579 --> 00:53:09.050 A:middle L:90% very much for your time. Yeah, Yeah, 1135 00:53:15.150 --> 00:53:16.880 A:middle L:90% it's not set. Got time for questions. If 1136 00:53:16.880 --> 00:53:20.110 A:middle L:90% we could have people step up to the microphone, 1137 00:53:20.119 --> 00:53:37.429 A:middle L:90% that be great. Mhm. Thanks to the great 1138 00:53:37.429 --> 00:53:42.440 A:middle L:90% talk. Sure. You know, uh, there's 1139 00:53:42.440 --> 00:53:44.039 A:middle L:90% a lot of, you know, you talk about 1140 00:53:44.039 --> 00:53:45.849 A:middle L:90% the tipping points, you talk about all these horrible 1141 00:53:45.849 --> 00:53:49.139 A:middle L:90% things that are having people around the world. Um 1142 00:53:49.150 --> 00:53:51.210 A:middle L:90% , what gives you your sense of optimism in the 1143 00:53:51.210 --> 00:53:53.090 A:middle L:90% face of all this horrible stuff going on and and 1144 00:53:53.090 --> 00:53:55.260 A:middle L:90% a chance that we can actually do something about it 1145 00:53:57.250 --> 00:53:59.849 A:middle L:90% . So I think we are like, so was 1146 00:53:59.849 --> 00:54:00.559 A:middle L:90% it? I mean, I think we are already 1147 00:54:00.559 --> 00:54:05.900 A:middle L:90% seeing phenomenal signs of change and, uh, I 1148 00:54:05.900 --> 00:54:08.159 A:middle L:90% have no doubt that we will change as a society 1149 00:54:08.280 --> 00:54:10.909 A:middle L:90% and there's late change in early change and one of 1150 00:54:10.909 --> 00:54:13.469 A:middle L:90% them just a heck of a lot more painful, 1151 00:54:13.840 --> 00:54:15.849 A:middle L:90% right? And so one of the issues that I 1152 00:54:15.849 --> 00:54:19.059 A:middle L:90% worry about are just changing fast enough to avoid the 1153 00:54:19.059 --> 00:54:21.090 A:middle L:90% really deep losses we're going to see in sort of 1154 00:54:21.090 --> 00:54:22.880 A:middle L:90% human societies. If we're too late around the edges 1155 00:54:22.880 --> 00:54:27.300 A:middle L:90% for some of this stuff, I'm. But I 1156 00:54:27.300 --> 00:54:30.559 A:middle L:90% see I see so many so many signs of this 1157 00:54:31.940 --> 00:54:36.829 A:middle L:90% . I love the work on societal transitions on this 1158 00:54:36.829 --> 00:54:39.039 A:middle L:90% fact that, you know, transitions can happen quite 1159 00:54:39.039 --> 00:54:43.139 A:middle L:90% rapidly and they're quite unpredictable, a little like the 1160 00:54:43.139 --> 00:54:45.360 A:middle L:90% negative tipping points in which, and and so part 1161 00:54:45.360 --> 00:54:49.619 A:middle L:90% of our job is to sort of build these innovations 1162 00:54:49.630 --> 00:54:51.989 A:middle L:90% , support them, keep them moving, so that 1163 00:54:51.989 --> 00:54:53.329 A:middle L:90% when you have a big perturbation to the system, 1164 00:54:53.340 --> 00:54:55.119 A:middle L:90% they can take off and they can really they can 1165 00:54:55.119 --> 00:54:57.789 A:middle L:90% really just change the whole system. And we see 1166 00:54:57.789 --> 00:55:00.320 A:middle L:90% that in technology all the time, and you could 1167 00:55:00.320 --> 00:55:02.880 A:middle L:90% apply that to development and sustainability as well. Sustainability 1168 00:55:02.880 --> 00:55:06.179 A:middle L:90% Science is the fastest growing science in the world right 1169 00:55:06.179 --> 00:55:07.380 A:middle L:90% now. That's kind of awesome, like that's a 1170 00:55:07.380 --> 00:55:09.340 A:middle L:90% whole community deciding to say, You know, I'm 1171 00:55:09.340 --> 00:55:14.030 A:middle L:90% interested in actually doing this solution oriented science. I'm 1172 00:55:14.030 --> 00:55:15.030 A:middle L:90% going to apply my skill set to something that I 1173 00:55:15.030 --> 00:55:17.489 A:middle L:90% think is important. It's also a reflection of funding 1174 00:55:17.489 --> 00:55:21.760 A:middle L:90% agencies saying, If we don't start to direct this 1175 00:55:21.940 --> 00:55:22.710 A:middle L:90% , we won't have the science We need to make 1176 00:55:22.710 --> 00:55:27.639 A:middle L:90% decisions. Um, and I'm confident that, and 1177 00:55:27.639 --> 00:55:30.079 A:middle L:90% we are going to see within the next 10 years 1178 00:55:30.090 --> 00:55:32.210 A:middle L:90% like we will see that step change in investment in 1179 00:55:32.210 --> 00:55:35.139 A:middle L:90% this kind of work. It's already happening in the 1180 00:55:35.139 --> 00:55:37.500 A:middle L:90% private sector. It's starting to happen in some of 1181 00:55:37.500 --> 00:55:39.420 A:middle L:90% the part of the parts of the public sector. 1182 00:55:39.420 --> 00:55:42.070 A:middle L:90% I think in this country is probably not the fastest 1183 00:55:42.070 --> 00:55:44.239 A:middle L:90% one to move that space. Um, but I 1184 00:55:44.239 --> 00:55:45.369 A:middle L:90% I'm hopeful that, you know, we haven't we 1185 00:55:45.369 --> 00:55:47.820 A:middle L:90% have a new cycle of politics coming forward, and 1186 00:55:47.829 --> 00:55:51.309 A:middle L:90% that cycle will be a chance to restart that conversation 1187 00:55:51.320 --> 00:55:53.519 A:middle L:90% . Um, so, uh, I I feel 1188 00:55:53.519 --> 00:55:55.679 A:middle L:90% like there's there's actually if you're if you're like an 1189 00:55:55.679 --> 00:56:00.269 A:middle L:90% Ecologist or a sociologist or like are just a scientist 1190 00:56:00.269 --> 00:56:04.320 A:middle L:90% who's engaged in these relevance problems like there is no 1191 00:56:04.320 --> 00:56:07.199 A:middle L:90% better time to be in that field because there's never 1192 00:56:07.199 --> 00:56:07.579 A:middle L:90% been a time that I've seen, at least in 1193 00:56:07.579 --> 00:56:10.170 A:middle L:90% my career, where people are paying more attention to 1194 00:56:10.170 --> 00:56:13.550 A:middle L:90% feel that predominantly didn't get a lot of attention paid 1195 00:56:13.550 --> 00:56:16.679 A:middle L:90% to them previously. You know, the you have 1196 00:56:16.679 --> 00:56:19.739 A:middle L:90% this commission right now trying to figure out when the 1197 00:56:19.739 --> 00:56:22.070 A:middle L:90% Anthropocene started. These are strategic refers people who study 1198 00:56:22.070 --> 00:56:27.289 A:middle L:90% rocks. They haven't made a political decision since that 1199 00:56:27.300 --> 00:56:31.789 A:middle L:90% field was started. I'm what they decide now is 1200 00:56:31.789 --> 00:56:36.599 A:middle L:90% this huge political decision like there. There have been 1201 00:56:36.599 --> 00:56:38.360 A:middle L:90% , like petitions on like move on dot org about 1202 00:56:38.360 --> 00:56:40.610 A:middle L:90% stopping the Anthropocene as if you could, like, 1203 00:56:40.610 --> 00:56:44.690 A:middle L:90% petition it out of existence. Because if this political 1204 00:56:44.690 --> 00:56:46.360 A:middle L:90% thing it's not about a girl that anthropocene, but 1205 00:56:46.360 --> 00:56:49.289 A:middle L:90% it is suddenly like suddenly you find people who are 1206 00:56:49.289 --> 00:56:52.659 A:middle L:90% used to working in very staid ways being thrust into 1207 00:56:52.659 --> 00:56:54.079 A:middle L:90% the spotlight. But there are also the professionals. 1208 00:56:54.079 --> 00:56:57.849 A:middle L:90% You might have really a lot to providing the information 1209 00:56:57.880 --> 00:57:00.710 A:middle L:90% , so I mean, I think once you get 1210 00:57:00.710 --> 00:57:02.739 A:middle L:90% engaged, it's actually much. It's much more hopeful 1211 00:57:02.739 --> 00:57:05.710 A:middle L:90% than when I was not engaged, like that's I 1212 00:57:05.710 --> 00:57:06.809 A:middle L:90% guess, the key for me. It was actually 1213 00:57:06.809 --> 00:57:07.269 A:middle L:90% just saying I'm just gonna try this stuff, figure 1214 00:57:07.269 --> 00:57:08.480 A:middle L:90% out what I can do, and then you find 1215 00:57:08.480 --> 00:57:10.150 A:middle L:90% a whole community that's doing it. And you're like 1216 00:57:10.150 --> 00:57:15.320 A:middle L:90% , Oh, there's this whole Thank you. I'm 1217 00:57:15.320 --> 00:57:17.809 A:middle L:90% gonna try to challenge your optimism a bit further here 1218 00:57:17.820 --> 00:57:21.989 A:middle L:90% . It seems to be implicit in your presentation. 1219 00:57:21.989 --> 00:57:23.489 A:middle L:90% Some assumption of goal alignment. You did note, 1220 00:57:23.489 --> 00:57:25.449 A:middle L:90% for example, the value of the oil companies. 1221 00:57:25.460 --> 00:57:27.929 A:middle L:90% There's a heck, a lot of interest there. 1222 00:57:27.929 --> 00:57:30.989 A:middle L:90% That's behind those valuations. How do you see? 1223 00:57:30.989 --> 00:57:32.659 A:middle L:90% And you mentioned the importance of engaging stakeholders. How 1224 00:57:32.659 --> 00:57:35.199 A:middle L:90% do you see the new degree of that working when 1225 00:57:35.199 --> 00:57:37.130 A:middle L:90% it comes to Hey, different interests, different priorities 1226 00:57:37.130 --> 00:57:38.719 A:middle L:90% . And they don't always fit with these visions of 1227 00:57:38.719 --> 00:57:43.550 A:middle L:90% sustainability. Yeah, so, um so I I 1228 00:57:43.550 --> 00:57:47.590 A:middle L:90% mean, I you're going to need different tools for 1229 00:57:47.590 --> 00:57:51.360 A:middle L:90% different stakeholders. And so you brought up Big Oil 1230 00:57:51.360 --> 00:57:52.260 A:middle L:90% is one example of a stakeholder that has a high 1231 00:57:52.260 --> 00:57:55.659 A:middle L:90% investment in A In a current system, social systems 1232 00:57:55.659 --> 00:57:58.360 A:middle L:90% have all these sort of lock ins in which you 1233 00:57:58.360 --> 00:58:00.159 A:middle L:90% know that investment makes it very difficult to create change 1234 00:58:00.159 --> 00:58:01.719 A:middle L:90% because you pull on one thing and it just pops 1235 00:58:01.719 --> 00:58:02.860 A:middle L:90% in back in when you let go of it. 1236 00:58:02.869 --> 00:58:05.969 A:middle L:90% Another part puts it together. So it's very hard 1237 00:58:05.969 --> 00:58:07.139 A:middle L:90% to keep take that big change and move it along 1238 00:58:07.820 --> 00:58:10.699 A:middle L:90% . Um, at the same time, Um, 1239 00:58:10.710 --> 00:58:13.679 A:middle L:90% I think there are so many kids in that in 1240 00:58:13.679 --> 00:58:15.349 A:middle L:90% that particular industry, I think you have to. 1241 00:58:15.349 --> 00:58:19.449 A:middle L:90% I think the issue is figuring out where the leverage 1242 00:58:19.449 --> 00:58:22.059 A:middle L:90% exists. And actually, you know, in I 1243 00:58:22.059 --> 00:58:25.250 A:middle L:90% think a lot of companies are starting to worry about 1244 00:58:27.119 --> 00:58:31.420 A:middle L:90% legislation that would prevent them from removing fossil fuels from 1245 00:58:31.420 --> 00:58:35.420 A:middle L:90% the ground. I think that's right now it seems 1246 00:58:35.429 --> 00:58:38.639 A:middle L:90% hard I'll bet within 10 years it's done in many 1247 00:58:38.639 --> 00:58:42.000 A:middle L:90% places. I mean, you've got India saying they're 1248 00:58:42.000 --> 00:58:45.369 A:middle L:90% going to have no gas powered cars by 2030 being 1249 00:58:45.369 --> 00:58:47.750 A:middle L:90% sold all electric by 2030. You've got countries in 1250 00:58:47.750 --> 00:58:51.179 A:middle L:90% Europe that are saying their entire economy will be carbon 1251 00:58:51.179 --> 00:58:52.159 A:middle L:90% neutral by that period of time, right? These 1252 00:58:52.159 --> 00:58:54.809 A:middle L:90% are that's unthinkable five years ago. But these are 1253 00:58:54.809 --> 00:58:57.599 A:middle L:90% politicians saying we're just going to we're going to put 1254 00:58:57.599 --> 00:58:59.139 A:middle L:90% it on paper and we're going to go after it 1255 00:58:59.219 --> 00:59:00.130 A:middle L:90% . No, it hasn't happened in this country yet 1256 00:59:00.139 --> 00:59:02.079 A:middle L:90% . Um, but you know, we'll get to 1257 00:59:02.079 --> 00:59:05.389 A:middle L:90% do We'll get there because, you know, it's 1258 00:59:05.389 --> 00:59:06.530 A:middle L:90% like what Churchill said, right? You know, 1259 00:59:06.530 --> 00:59:07.050 A:middle L:90% America does the right thing after its tried a bunch 1260 00:59:07.050 --> 00:59:10.400 A:middle L:90% of other stuff first, and, um uh, 1261 00:59:10.409 --> 00:59:15.590 A:middle L:90% well, we get there and the current political state 1262 00:59:15.590 --> 00:59:16.210 A:middle L:90% makes that hard, right? So I don't think 1263 00:59:16.219 --> 00:59:19.019 A:middle L:90% right now we can see ourselves as the first in 1264 00:59:19.019 --> 00:59:22.659 A:middle L:90% the line to make those changes. But as other 1265 00:59:22.659 --> 00:59:24.530 A:middle L:90% countries move, we will be forced to move and 1266 00:59:24.530 --> 00:59:29.340 A:middle L:90% I think are sort of internal communities like academic communities 1267 00:59:29.349 --> 00:59:31.550 A:middle L:90% and civil society communities. And the really strong connection 1268 00:59:31.550 --> 00:59:36.170 A:middle L:90% we have, the strong civil linkages we have between 1269 00:59:36.170 --> 00:59:37.119 A:middle L:90% some of those can be put to better use to 1270 00:59:37.130 --> 00:59:39.650 A:middle L:90% create more, more, more push. That way 1271 00:59:40.019 --> 00:59:45.769 A:middle L:90% , I I get what you're saying. I'm but 1272 00:59:45.769 --> 00:59:46.880 A:middle L:90% I don't I don't feel that like I mean, 1273 00:59:46.880 --> 00:59:49.750 A:middle L:90% like, what is the oxygen in this space? 1274 00:59:50.420 --> 00:59:52.219 A:middle L:90% In other words, you have like there's so many 1275 00:59:52.219 --> 00:59:55.329 A:middle L:90% people searching for change. There's so many disruptive communities 1276 00:59:55.329 --> 00:59:59.530 A:middle L:90% starting. It's a tremendously exciting time to kind of 1277 00:59:59.530 --> 01:00:01.090 A:middle L:90% create that change, like right when it gets darkest 1278 01:00:01.090 --> 01:00:04.619 A:middle L:90% is when the innovation is most excited in some ways 1279 01:00:04.630 --> 01:00:06.699 A:middle L:90% , because that's the one that boom takes off. 1280 01:00:06.710 --> 01:00:07.340 A:middle L:90% We're getting close to that space where there's not a 1281 01:00:07.340 --> 01:00:09.329 A:middle L:90% lot of time where we will come through this and 1282 01:00:09.329 --> 01:00:12.820 A:middle L:90% someone is going to figure out some fantastic ways through 1283 01:00:12.909 --> 01:00:14.139 A:middle L:90% . I want to just be a part of that 1284 01:00:14.510 --> 01:00:17.519 A:middle L:90% . So I guess that was Yeah, mhm. 1285 01:00:21.110 --> 01:00:29.139 A:middle L:90% Okay, It seems like none of these solutions what 1286 01:00:29.510 --> 01:00:32.940 A:middle L:90% can be realized if you don't have a solution to 1287 01:00:32.949 --> 01:00:37.349 A:middle L:90% population growth. And I'm sorry to see you didn't 1288 01:00:37.349 --> 01:00:38.960 A:middle L:90% mention it in your talking. So population growth is 1289 01:00:38.960 --> 01:00:42.340 A:middle L:90% an interesting one because we've already hit Peak Child. 1290 01:00:42.349 --> 01:00:44.789 A:middle L:90% It's a huge problem, but it's a problem that 1291 01:00:44.789 --> 01:00:46.420 A:middle L:90% has actually turned the corner. And it's a problem 1292 01:00:46.429 --> 01:00:49.670 A:middle L:90% , that is, that is what I would call 1293 01:00:49.670 --> 01:00:51.050 A:middle L:90% it, one of the slow ones. In other 1294 01:00:51.050 --> 01:00:52.340 A:middle L:90% words, you can't fix it overnight. There are 1295 01:00:52.340 --> 01:00:55.860 A:middle L:90% no policy solutions that are ethical that would allow you 1296 01:00:55.860 --> 01:01:00.420 A:middle L:90% to turn the clock on or even feasible that that 1297 01:01:00.420 --> 01:01:01.820 A:middle L:90% would, uh, that would change the trajectory of 1298 01:01:01.820 --> 01:01:06.719 A:middle L:90% population growth measurably in the places where it needs to 1299 01:01:06.719 --> 01:01:09.639 A:middle L:90% change fastest. So the biggest, the most effective 1300 01:01:10.010 --> 01:01:15.150 A:middle L:90% , a way of of changing population growth is through 1301 01:01:15.150 --> 01:01:16.679 A:middle L:90% development. It always has been. We've seen that 1302 01:01:16.679 --> 01:01:20.320 A:middle L:90% in every country we've worked in China's policy of one 1303 01:01:20.329 --> 01:01:22.340 A:middle L:90% child had no impact on population growth there, Um 1304 01:01:22.340 --> 01:01:25.119 A:middle L:90% , and neighboring countries that didn't have it through, 1305 01:01:25.130 --> 01:01:28.230 A:middle L:90% you know, grew at slower rates like it's not 1306 01:01:28.230 --> 01:01:30.230 A:middle L:90% about it's top down control. It's about empowering women 1307 01:01:30.230 --> 01:01:34.630 A:middle L:90% particularly, and to create, to have other options 1308 01:01:34.639 --> 01:01:37.230 A:middle L:90% and pushing the building that empowerment in societies around the 1309 01:01:37.230 --> 01:01:40.469 A:middle L:90% world. That said, You've got negative population grew 1310 01:01:40.469 --> 01:01:43.579 A:middle L:90% up in much of Europe. You've got you've got 1311 01:01:43.579 --> 01:01:45.539 A:middle L:90% population growth. It's declining throughout many areas of the 1312 01:01:45.539 --> 01:01:49.239 A:middle L:90% world, and you have Africa. It's locked in 1313 01:01:49.610 --> 01:01:51.570 A:middle L:90% . It's locked in because of the demography. Right 1314 01:01:51.570 --> 01:01:54.179 A:middle L:90% now, where you have this massive population under 17 1315 01:01:54.190 --> 01:01:57.289 A:middle L:90% . In many countries throughout Africa, you know, 1316 01:01:57.289 --> 01:02:00.250 A:middle L:90% upwards of half the population in many countries that will 1317 01:02:00.250 --> 01:02:04.349 A:middle L:90% continue like that is going to double the population of 1318 01:02:04.349 --> 01:02:07.090 A:middle L:90% that continent. It will be the most populous continent 1319 01:02:07.099 --> 01:02:10.000 A:middle L:90% by the 20 by 2021. Um, probably sooner 1320 01:02:10.010 --> 01:02:14.510 A:middle L:90% . And the challenge for there is, I think 1321 01:02:14.510 --> 01:02:16.030 A:middle L:90% , more than population growth. It's what do you 1322 01:02:16.030 --> 01:02:20.159 A:middle L:90% do with that eventuality, right? Because the impact 1323 01:02:20.159 --> 01:02:22.769 A:middle L:90% of a person on the planet is the product of 1324 01:02:22.769 --> 01:02:24.130 A:middle L:90% the is a product function of the number of people 1325 01:02:24.139 --> 01:02:28.599 A:middle L:90% and their individual impact you can have, and our 1326 01:02:28.610 --> 01:02:31.820 A:middle L:90% individual impact is many, many, many times larger 1327 01:02:31.829 --> 01:02:35.400 A:middle L:90% than an individual impact. The current current sort of 1328 01:02:35.409 --> 01:02:37.309 A:middle L:90% consumption issue concerned consumption levels in much of Africa. 1329 01:02:37.500 --> 01:02:39.510 A:middle L:90% So I agree with you. It has been a 1330 01:02:39.510 --> 01:02:43.260 A:middle L:90% huge problem, and it is a root cause of 1331 01:02:43.269 --> 01:02:45.039 A:middle L:90% part of of the many large scale impacts. I 1332 01:02:45.039 --> 01:02:46.920 A:middle L:90% am much more worried about how we deal with moving 1333 01:02:46.920 --> 01:02:50.289 A:middle L:90% 3.5 billion people into the middle class and how we 1334 01:02:50.289 --> 01:02:52.219 A:middle L:90% deal with a growing population in Africa, primarily because 1335 01:02:52.219 --> 01:02:55.559 A:middle L:90% I think we have choices in the first and we 1336 01:02:55.559 --> 01:03:00.719 A:middle L:90% don't have a choice about the trajectory of millions and 1337 01:03:00.719 --> 01:03:02.510 A:middle L:90% millions of 17 year olds getting older. That's going 1338 01:03:02.510 --> 01:03:06.099 A:middle L:90% to happen. We have to build. And we 1339 01:03:06.099 --> 01:03:09.090 A:middle L:90% know the tools that are implicit in reducing fertility and 1340 01:03:09.099 --> 01:03:14.079 A:middle L:90% reducing the rates at which Children are born and that 1341 01:03:14.090 --> 01:03:15.719 A:middle L:90% those tools are relatively well established. The political will 1342 01:03:15.719 --> 01:03:17.619 A:middle L:90% to put them in place is tough because its development 1343 01:03:17.619 --> 01:03:21.420 A:middle L:90% it's fundamental development work. That's a great question. 1344 01:03:21.900 --> 01:03:25.929 A:middle L:90% Uh, yeah, yeah, we'll take one more 1345 01:03:25.929 --> 01:03:27.880 A:middle L:90% , and then I got to cut it off. 1346 01:03:27.880 --> 01:03:34.409 A:middle L:90% Sorry. Yeah, this question is from my friend 1347 01:03:34.409 --> 01:03:37.570 A:middle L:90% Alan Moss and myself. How will a massive loss 1348 01:03:37.570 --> 01:03:43.190 A:middle L:90% of species throughout the world affect humans? Um, 1349 01:03:43.199 --> 01:03:45.710 A:middle L:90% well, it already is. Um, it's doing 1350 01:03:45.710 --> 01:03:45.800 A:middle L:90% it. And I think it's, you know, 1351 01:03:45.809 --> 01:03:51.610 A:middle L:90% you can but just turn myself up, right? 1352 01:03:52.000 --> 01:03:53.570 A:middle L:90% Here we go. I'll just hold it up. 1353 01:03:55.099 --> 01:04:00.199 A:middle L:90% There are there are That's a prediction that I'd love 1354 01:04:00.199 --> 01:04:02.849 A:middle L:90% to be all with a nail. Um um but 1355 01:04:02.860 --> 01:04:05.179 A:middle L:90% , uh, but I think I think your question 1356 01:04:05.179 --> 01:04:08.130 A:middle L:90% is I mean, I could throw out statistics of 1357 01:04:08.139 --> 01:04:11.510 A:middle L:90% individual impacts that species loss is having on economies. 1358 01:04:11.519 --> 01:04:15.159 A:middle L:90% I'm not sure that you're trying to get a laundry 1359 01:04:15.159 --> 01:04:17.670 A:middle L:90% list. I think one of the things about ecological 1360 01:04:17.670 --> 01:04:21.429 A:middle L:90% systems that we are starting to understand is the degree 1361 01:04:21.429 --> 01:04:26.980 A:middle L:90% to which some parts fill in for others. And 1362 01:04:26.989 --> 01:04:30.420 A:middle L:90% the timing, the points at which those systems collapse 1363 01:04:30.429 --> 01:04:32.389 A:middle L:90% . So ecological or ecosystems also have these sort of 1364 01:04:32.400 --> 01:04:35.250 A:middle L:90% tipping points where they move into other states, and 1365 01:04:35.250 --> 01:04:39.199 A:middle L:90% those other states can be more or less desirable for 1366 01:04:39.199 --> 01:04:43.119 A:middle L:90% humans. Um, I work a lot on an 1367 01:04:43.119 --> 01:04:45.000 A:middle L:90% island of an island in the South Pacific or North 1368 01:04:45.000 --> 01:04:47.630 A:middle L:90% Pacific called Guam. And Guam is the only island 1369 01:04:47.630 --> 01:04:50.639 A:middle L:90% on the Earth Sizable Island has no birds. All 1370 01:04:50.639 --> 01:04:53.909 A:middle L:90% the birds have been wiped out by a snake and 1371 01:04:53.909 --> 01:04:55.659 A:middle L:90% it's the highest density of snakes in the world. 1372 01:04:55.670 --> 01:04:59.480 A:middle L:90% And it's also the highest density of spiders because there 1373 01:04:59.480 --> 01:05:01.250 A:middle L:90% are no birds eating the spiders. And we've been 1374 01:05:01.250 --> 01:05:03.980 A:middle L:90% working there eight or 10 years to try and figure 1375 01:05:03.980 --> 01:05:08.289 A:middle L:90% out how that's going to affect a forest that had 1376 01:05:08.289 --> 01:05:10.280 A:middle L:90% all of its seeds. About 80% of the trees 1377 01:05:10.280 --> 01:05:12.550 A:middle L:90% dispersed by birds. There are no birds anymore. 1378 01:05:12.550 --> 01:05:14.630 A:middle L:90% There haven't been for 25 years. We can't bring 1379 01:05:14.630 --> 01:05:18.139 A:middle L:90% them back. I'm untangling. The effects of that 1380 01:05:18.320 --> 01:05:21.340 A:middle L:90% has proved much more challenging than I think any of 1381 01:05:21.340 --> 01:05:26.590 A:middle L:90% us anticipated at the beginning on. But it is 1382 01:05:26.590 --> 01:05:30.409 A:middle L:90% now pretty clear that that will cause large scale forest 1383 01:05:30.409 --> 01:05:33.059 A:middle L:90% changes on that island. I think there are other 1384 01:05:33.059 --> 01:05:35.670 A:middle L:90% . I know there are other Ecologists working within similar 1385 01:05:35.670 --> 01:05:40.289 A:middle L:90% systems, making similar conclusions, adding them all up 1386 01:05:40.300 --> 01:05:42.960 A:middle L:90% super tricky, right? Super tricky because we've been 1387 01:05:42.960 --> 01:05:45.199 A:middle L:90% at this for a while, knocking out species one 1388 01:05:45.199 --> 01:05:47.239 A:middle L:90% after another, and we've seen the effects. We've 1389 01:05:47.239 --> 01:05:49.039 A:middle L:90% seen very large effects in some cases and then very 1390 01:05:49.039 --> 01:05:51.079 A:middle L:90% small effects in others, so I don't have a 1391 01:05:51.090 --> 01:05:57.949 A:middle L:90% really good answer for you, I think. Sorry 1392 01:05:57.949 --> 01:05:59.920 A:middle L:90% about this, but yeah, we promised the lyric 1393 01:05:59.920 --> 01:06:01.530 A:middle L:90% that we would not overstay our welcome. So thank 1394 01:06:01.530 --> 01:06:03.309 A:middle L:90% all of you for coming out today. This is 1395 01:06:03.309 --> 01:06:06.719 A:middle L:90% great. And thanks to Josh for taking his time 1396 01:06:09.389 --> 01:06:17.099 A:middle L:90% . Yeah, Mhm.