WEBVTT Kind: captions Language: en 00:00:10.130 --> 00:00:13.980 [Bill Hopkins] Good afternoon. If I could urge you to start moving 00:00:13.980 --> 00:00:18.780 towards your seats. My name is Bill Hopkins. I'm a professor in the 00:00:18.780 --> 00:00:21.539 Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation and the College of Natural 00:00:21.539 --> 00:00:25.770 Resources and Environment, and I also serve as director of the Global Change 00:00:25.770 --> 00:00:30.210 Center at Virginia Tech. I'd like to welcome all of you today to another 00:00:30.210 --> 00:00:36.270 installment of our Global Change lecture series. These events are one of a number 00:00:36.270 --> 00:00:39.620 of things that we do as we try to outreach into the community and engage 00:00:39.620 --> 00:00:44.609 the community in a variety of discussions around topics of 00:00:44.609 --> 00:00:48.780 considerable societal importance, things like climate change. And it's wonderful 00:00:48.780 --> 00:00:53.850 once again to see a strong turnout for this important event. Before we get 00:00:53.850 --> 00:00:56.909 started, I want to thank folks who help to make this possible. 00:00:56.909 --> 00:01:02.249 First of all, Fralin Life Science Institute. As many of you know, this is 00:01:02.249 --> 00:01:05.820 the home of the Global Change Center. They support us financially but also 00:01:05.820 --> 00:01:11.010 logistically and have been supporters basically from the beginning, so big 00:01:11.010 --> 00:01:15.060 thanks to them. The Virginia Tech Graduate School, who funds our 00:01:15.060 --> 00:01:19.230 interdisciplinary graduate education program. You've seen some of the ushers 00:01:19.230 --> 00:01:22.770 running around, those are some of our graduate student fellows. So thank you to 00:01:22.770 --> 00:01:27.900 them and also the Fralin Life Science Institute staff and in particular Jess Zielske. 00:01:27.900 --> 00:01:32.100 I'm not sure where she is right now but she is the one who handled all 00:01:32.100 --> 00:01:36.090 the logistics for the event and a lot goes into making these sorts of things 00:01:36.090 --> 00:01:41.220 possible so a big thanks to her. And last but certainly not least the Lyric Theatre. 00:01:41.220 --> 00:01:45.750 We are very very fortunate to have this community theatre here. 00:01:45.750 --> 00:01:50.400 We've been working with the Lyric now for I think about five years and we are very 00:01:50.400 --> 00:01:56.730 very we just feel very very fortunate to have them as a partner and so it's great 00:01:56.730 --> 00:01:59.370 to see you here supporting the Lyric as well as what we're trying to accomplish 00:01:59.370 --> 00:02:02.160 as well so thanks to the Lyric and thanks to Fralin and the Graduate School. 00:02:02.160 --> 00:02:09.000 [Applause] 00:02:09.000 --> 00:02:14.320 So before we get started, three quick housekeeping items. First of all if you 00:02:14.320 --> 00:02:18.610 haven't already please turn off your cellular devices. Nothing worse than 00:02:18.610 --> 00:02:22.270 being that person that has their phone ring during the middle of one of these 00:02:22.270 --> 00:02:26.410 discussions, so please turn this off now. At the end there will be time for 00:02:26.410 --> 00:02:31.300 questions and answers. This is probably in many cases one of the best parts of 00:02:31.300 --> 00:02:36.190 these events, so I hope that people will stick around and engage and ask 00:02:36.190 --> 00:02:41.050 questions too with our speaker. There are two microphones that we ask that you 00:02:41.050 --> 00:02:46.090 step up to to use those when you're asking questions and if if you're not 00:02:46.090 --> 00:02:49.870 comfortable doing that, please stand and just really make sure you project so 00:02:49.870 --> 00:02:53.950 that we can hear you. Afterwards there will also be books on sale. You saw that 00:02:53.950 --> 00:02:58.900 probably, in the lobby and our speaker today will be available to sign books. 00:02:58.900 --> 00:03:04.090 We've got to get out of here by 5:30 so we'll be sort of urging folks to move 00:03:04.090 --> 00:03:08.020 into the lobby for the book signing and then out of the building by 5:30 so the 00:03:08.020 --> 00:03:13.959 Lyric can set up for their next event. Okay, so with that I have the pleasure 00:03:13.959 --> 00:03:20.170 today to introduce our spring 2019 distinguished lecturer, Dr. Andrew Hoffman. 00:03:20.170 --> 00:03:25.600 He is the Holcim Professor of Sustainable Enterprise at the University 00:03:25.600 --> 00:03:30.010 of Michigan. This is an endowed professorship and it's a 00:03:30.010 --> 00:03:34.510 unique joint appointment in two academic homes. He's appointed in both the 00:03:34.510 --> 00:03:39.120 Ross School of Business as well as the School of Environment and Sustainability. 00:03:39.120 --> 00:03:44.140 Dr. Hoffman has a fascinating background. Although he holds appointments in the 00:03:44.140 --> 00:03:47.290 schools associated with business and natural resources, he actually has a 00:03:47.290 --> 00:03:51.310 strong engineering background. His bachelor's degree is in chemical 00:03:51.310 --> 00:03:55.060 engineering from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. He has a 00:03:55.060 --> 00:03:58.810 master's degree in civil and environmental engineering from MIT and 00:03:58.810 --> 00:04:03.850 he has joint degrees also from MIT in management and civil and environmental 00:04:03.850 --> 00:04:10.090 engineering. Prior to academics he worked for the US EPA, Metcalf and Eddy 00:04:10.090 --> 00:04:14.620 environmental consultants, TNT construction and design, and Amoco 00:04:14.620 --> 00:04:18.280 Corporation. And as you will see today all of these experiences 00:04:18.280 --> 00:04:22.930 have contributed to his very broad worldview. In his current position at 00:04:22.930 --> 00:04:27.250 Michigan as a researcher and as an educator, Dr. Hoffman uses 00:04:27.250 --> 00:04:30.760 organizational behavior models and theories to understand cultural and 00:04:30.760 --> 00:04:34.389 institutional aspects of environmental issues like climate change that we're 00:04:34.389 --> 00:04:38.950 going to be discussing today. He's published over 100 articles and book 00:04:38.950 --> 00:04:44.350 chapters, as well as 14 books -- I have no idea how you do that -- which have been 00:04:44.350 --> 00:04:48.760 translated now in five languages. And if you look at the title of his books I 00:04:48.760 --> 00:04:52.660 think this is a pretty telling exercise you begin to understand just how broad 00:04:52.660 --> 00:04:56.830 his perspective really is and that scholarship moves across a variety of 00:04:56.830 --> 00:05:02.350 disciplines. Just a couple quick examples: he's probably most accomplished in the 00:05:02.350 --> 00:05:07.000 area of writing about sustainability in business, including titles such as From 00:05:07.000 --> 00:05:10.770 heresy to dogma: an institutional history of corporate environmentalism, 00:05:10.770 --> 00:05:15.460 the Oxford Handbook on business in the natural environment, and Carbon 00:05:15.460 --> 00:05:19.260 strategies: how leading companies are reducing their climate change footprint. 00:05:19.260 --> 00:05:23.320 Recently he's been writing more about the role of academics in society which 00:05:23.320 --> 00:05:27.610 is a very timely topic I think given the current state of affairs including his 00:05:27.610 --> 00:05:32.979 book Academic engagement and public and political discourse. And he has even 00:05:32.979 --> 00:05:36.729 written multiple books about personal growth that seek to inspire individuals 00:05:36.729 --> 00:05:41.200 to find fulfillment and direction in their career path. One of those you'll 00:05:41.200 --> 00:05:44.770 see out there today is the Builders Apprentice, which is actually a story 00:05:44.770 --> 00:05:48.729 about his own personal journey during years practicing his craftsmanship as a 00:05:48.729 --> 00:05:53.320 carpenter. Yes he was also a carpenter in a former life, so you can see he's 00:05:53.320 --> 00:05:57.460 clearly a man of many talents and interests. A few of his books are in the 00:05:57.460 --> 00:06:02.830 lobby so please stop as I mentioned already and spend a little time and say 00:06:02.830 --> 00:06:08.380 hello to Dr. Hoffman on your way out. His work, his books in particular, have been 00:06:08.380 --> 00:06:12.400 covered by a number of media outlets including the New York Times, Scientific 00:06:12.400 --> 00:06:16.990 American, Time, The Wall Street Journal, National Geographic, the Atlantic and 00:06:16.990 --> 00:06:21.190 National Public Radio. He also frequently provides his expertise on numerous 00:06:21.190 --> 00:06:25.330 advisory boards and also research committees. I won't go into all those but 00:06:25.330 --> 00:06:28.419 he's been heavily involved with the National Academies of Sciences 00:06:28.419 --> 00:06:32.510 as well as the Johnson foundation. In recognition of 00:06:32.510 --> 00:06:36.500 his contributions, Dr. Hoffman has received an incredible list of honors. 00:06:36.500 --> 00:06:41.270 It is a very long list and I'll name just a few of those. He was recently awarded the 00:06:41.270 --> 00:06:45.650 Aspen Institute faculty Pioneer Award. They apparently at the Aspen Institute 00:06:45.650 --> 00:06:50.540 recognized his talents very early on because 13 years prior to that they had 00:06:50.540 --> 00:06:54.680 actually awarded him the Aspen Institute rising star award so it looks like they 00:06:54.680 --> 00:06:58.910 were right. The American Chemical Society's national award, the Maggie 00:06:58.910 --> 00:07:04.310 award, the Connecticut Book Award, the Aldo Leopold fellowship, the Manos Paige 00:07:04.310 --> 00:07:09.800 prize, the Cleggerman award, and the Rachel Carson book prize. Clearly Dr. 00:07:09.800 --> 00:07:13.790 Hoffman is an extremely busy individual and so we're very very grateful to have 00:07:13.790 --> 00:07:16.970 you here today thank you for taking time from your schedule to share your 00:07:16.970 --> 00:07:21.930 perspective and if you will please join me in welcoming him to Blacksburg. 00:07:21.930 --> 00:07:29.400 [Applause] 00:07:34.740 --> 00:07:41.330 [Andrew Hoffman] That was embarrassing. I guess you can hear me okay hold on [mic feedback] okay 00:07:41.330 --> 00:07:45.690 Okay thank you Bill that is a very, very generous introduction, I really 00:07:45.690 --> 00:07:48.330 appreciate that. It's a pleasure be here. I've never been to Virginia Tech 00:07:48.330 --> 00:07:53.160 and what a beautiful place. Next time I come I have to spend more time and hit 00:07:53.160 --> 00:07:58.440 those mountains and see more of the countryside, it looks spectacular. 00:07:58.440 --> 00:08:03.240 I'm going to start my talk tonight with a joke, and there's a reason, I'll explain why in 00:08:03.240 --> 00:08:06.750 a second. But I have to start with a joke, otherwise it startles people if I 00:08:06.750 --> 00:08:11.820 start this way without warning you. At the University of Michigan we have an 00:08:11.820 --> 00:08:17.010 undergraduate, a freshman class, it's 500 students and no one likes to teach 00:08:17.010 --> 00:08:20.580 it because you get no personal time of the students you don't get to meet them 00:08:20.580 --> 00:08:24.210 you don't get a feel for them, but there's one professor, one professor who 00:08:24.210 --> 00:08:29.100 signs up for this class every year because it allows him to embed his 00:08:29.100 --> 00:08:33.360 sadistic tendencies and scare the daylights out of these young impressionate 00:08:33.360 --> 00:08:37.610 freshmen. So one year he was teaching the class the treatment is working very well 00:08:37.610 --> 00:08:41.430 in fact there's one student - I have to stay right here- 00:08:41.430 --> 00:08:45.209 there's one student who the treatment's working extremely well on, and he is so 00:08:45.209 --> 00:08:48.870 scared of his professor. He sits in the back row, he never makes a sound. 00:08:48.870 --> 00:08:52.950 You'd never know he was there. It comes time for the final, the student 00:08:52.950 --> 00:08:56.070 studies all night, comes in, sits down. The professor comes into the final room 00:08:56.070 --> 00:08:59.290 hands out a blue book sits down and says this exam 00:08:59.290 --> 00:09:04.269 begins promptly at 12:00 and ends promptly at 2:00, at 2 o'clock I'm 00:09:04.269 --> 00:09:09.459 walking out of the room. The exam begins, 2 o'clock comes, the professor has a stack of exams 00:09:09.459 --> 00:09:12.490 is about to walk out but he realizes one student's still in the 00:09:12.490 --> 00:09:16.300 audience. It's the student who hasn't made a sound all semester. So he decides 00:09:16.300 --> 00:09:19.630 to wait, he's going to have one last little bit of fun before the semester ends. 00:09:19.630 --> 00:09:25.509 So he sits back and waits, five past two, ten past two, 15 past two, suddenly of the student 00:09:25.509 --> 00:09:29.380 realizes what's going on, runs up on the stage to hand in an exam and 00:09:29.380 --> 00:09:33.699 the professor just leans back and says "what do you think you're doing?" and the 00:09:33.699 --> 00:09:38.110 students says "well, I'm handing in my exam" and the professor says "I'm sorry your exam 00:09:38.110 --> 00:09:41.110 is late. You flunk the class. I'll see you next semester." 00:09:41.110 --> 00:09:46.600 The student says "do you know who I am?" The professor says "doesn't matter who 00:09:46.600 --> 00:09:50.829 you are, you flunk the exam." The student held his ground and says "but do you know 00:09:50.829 --> 00:09:55.600 who I am" and the professor gets angry and says "no I don't know who you are." 00:09:55.600 --> 00:09:57.700 The student says "precisely," slides his exam into the middle of the stack and walks out of the room. 00:09:58.700 --> 00:10:02.800 [Laughter] 00:10:04.630 --> 00:10:11.839 Now, what is a joke? A joke is telling the story and that's what I want to 00:10:11.839 --> 00:10:16.760 convey upon you tonight is that to tell about climate change, tell about any 00:10:16.760 --> 00:10:22.100 scientific issue, it helps to tell a story. And the beauty of the joke is I'm 00:10:22.100 --> 00:10:27.320 telling you a story but I had to be keenly aware have yet I want you to hear 00:10:27.320 --> 00:10:30.320 because I'm not sure burned today over here and a pencil and is over there 00:10:30.320 --> 00:10:33.620 that's what makes a joke work and if I they're too slow you last see this 00:10:33.620 --> 00:10:37.970 unattested joke much too slowly and the audience anticipates we're going and the 00:10:37.970 --> 00:10:42.310 joke is band so I have to be very very met audience when I'm telling the story 00:10:42.310 --> 00:10:46.490 the same is true that climate change when you're talking about climate change 00:10:46.490 --> 00:10:50.330 you have to be aware of your evidence be aware of who you're talking to and I'll 00:10:50.330 --> 00:10:54.230 add that many academics are not very good at this academics are very good at 00:10:54.230 --> 00:10:58.790 lecturing but in that in virtually engage a understanding the audience is 00:10:58.790 --> 00:11:03.230 key so when I want to talk to you tonight about is how do you talk to 00:11:03.230 --> 00:11:08.230 people about climate change specifically people who are skeptical of the science 00:11:08.230 --> 00:11:13.670 and so I didn't be able to do this type property if I weren't able to 00:11:13.670 --> 00:11:19.220 demonstrate and ability to speak and so telling a joke is a great warm-up an 00:11:19.220 --> 00:11:23.120 audience different country immediately come to me with you but then again all 00:11:23.120 --> 00:11:25.970 the way through here I'm gonna tell you stories I'm now so therefore I'm gonna 00:11:25.970 --> 00:11:29.170 tell you exactly what I'm gonna do I'm gonna be very transparent about my talk 00:11:29.170 --> 00:11:34.430 I'm gonna tell you in a minute area then a minute area then I'm gonna tell you 00:11:34.430 --> 00:11:38.480 what I told you and this is a really helpful device if you have to give a 00:11:38.480 --> 00:11:41.450 talk to the students that they're a faculty that there is a very important 00:11:41.450 --> 00:11:46.400 advice for getting a point across now you don't repeat yourself you find 00:11:46.400 --> 00:11:49.100 many ways to tell so I'm gonna open it a story 00:11:49.100 --> 00:11:53.180 I'm gonna close with a story in the middle I'm going to do that address of 00:11:53.180 --> 00:11:59.540 what I want you to hear and then we'll wrap it up so there's the structure of 00:11:59.540 --> 00:12:02.779 my type no surprises no clear bells that's going to do it 00:12:02.779 --> 00:12:06.740 so what I'm going to talk about is how culture shapes the climate change I'm 00:12:06.740 --> 00:12:11.360 going to tell you what I'm going to and I'm gonna tell you the story amended 00:12:11.360 --> 00:12:15.380 years ago I was called never development house at the University of Michigan 00:12:15.380 --> 00:12:20.870 we're not in a joke that is a true story and they said we have a potential donor 00:12:20.870 --> 00:12:25.270 he has a lot of money he is interested in business to stand early without study 00:12:25.270 --> 00:12:30.200 we journey to them and they read and get a gift and I'm sure when you hit 00:12:30.200 --> 00:12:33.410 Virginia Tech has its development officers who are very good at their job 00:12:33.410 --> 00:12:38.000 and know how to do this and so I agreed to meet with this potential donor it is 00:12:38.000 --> 00:12:42.590 7 o'clock in the morning see anytime I had free and I'm in a conference room at 00:12:42.590 --> 00:12:47.080 the business school big beautiful them they asked behind the campus beyond I 00:12:47.080 --> 00:12:53.090 under the room so crater in epic a feast a trial date back across the taters the 00:12:53.090 --> 00:12:58.100 potential donor to the salary today as the development officer the fear I sat 00:12:58.100 --> 00:13:02.930 down the potential donor said that's what you know I think the scientific 00:13:02.930 --> 00:13:07.910 review process is correct Fischer is opening words also we do you 00:13:07.910 --> 00:13:10.790 forgive the university of based on that system he says I think that university 00:13:10.790 --> 00:13:16.160 is corrupt as well he ran on to say that he thought climate change was a hoax we 00:13:16.160 --> 00:13:20.089 talked about sunspots and his stuff about solar flares and volcanoes mchip 00:13:20.089 --> 00:13:24.500 that around for a while and then he turned his sights on me and he said now 00:13:24.500 --> 00:13:28.610 can you explain to me why you hit capitalism and I want to destroy the 00:13:28.610 --> 00:13:34.070 market by teaching environmental issues in a business school we keep that after 00:13:34.070 --> 00:13:39.440 a and then he said now do you know that Earth Day is on the day of Tom and I 00:13:39.440 --> 00:13:42.800 have become pretty punchy by when I said no I don't you 2008 days on the day of 00:13:42.800 --> 00:13:46.839 town he says because it's Karl Marx's birthday 00:13:48.900 --> 00:13:52.690 Eternia diamond officer and I said Whizzer agenda here this morning and the 00:13:52.690 --> 00:13:56.860 potential donor jumped in and said I want to buy you a ticket to the headline 00:13:56.860 --> 00:13:59.560 conference which if you're not familiar is another one climate sceptics 00:13:59.560 --> 00:14:05.080 conference in the country so this scared in that calendar in my head I found out 00:14:05.080 --> 00:14:18.630 a conflict I said I can't make it the meeting ended and I left switch and I 00:14:20.640 --> 00:14:55.150 happened change was as big a wedge issue as abortion which is quite astonishing 00:14:55.150 --> 00:14:59.830 when you talk to scientists about this issue how did this happen so that got me 00:14:59.830 --> 00:15:05.590 stranded and I'm sure there's a lot of academics in a.m. or a future academics 00:15:05.590 --> 00:15:10.060 but the oil works is you develop a resource room and you have a paper and 00:15:10.060 --> 00:15:13.750 another paper and you develop the body of your building on others and you can 00:15:13.750 --> 00:15:18.520 culminate in something like a book like this I'm gonna tell you your thrust of 00:15:18.520 --> 00:15:24.790 that work the thrust is this the debate over climate change and the public and 00:15:24.790 --> 00:15:30.820 political sphere is not just about co2 is not just about climate models it's 00:15:30.820 --> 00:15:35.980 about conflicting worldviews the people fear are threatened by an acceptance of 00:15:35.980 --> 00:15:41.140 this issue and if you do not recognize that subtext of the debate you can keep 00:15:41.140 --> 00:15:45.430 on bucking heads with people on this issue and you'll make no headway will 00:15:45.430 --> 00:15:51.070 talk about past each other there's my talk I just told you that I want to tell 00:15:51.070 --> 00:15:54.090 you if you want a better sleep now 00:16:12.770 --> 00:16:16.010 that's true 00:16:35.250 --> 00:16:40.320 this is the scientists that don't do science what they do is they volunteer 00:16:40.320 --> 00:16:45.330 their time and they clear that all the research has been done and they come to 00:16:45.330 --> 00:16:49.080 up to Utley the consensus document what does the research tell us and then make 00:16:49.080 --> 00:16:54.120 a consensus statement and it's become an increasingly better over time where the 00:16:54.120 --> 00:16:58.140 IBC is getting stronger and stronger I do remember in their first coming over 00:16:58.140 --> 00:17:03.000 they will save a ton of they're very cautious in Santa Miranda and more 00:17:03.000 --> 00:17:08.640 recently they become big blunt and quite direct that consensus document has been 00:17:08.640 --> 00:17:13.800 endorsed at over 200 scientific agencies around the world including every one of 00:17:13.800 --> 00:17:20.070 the g8 + 5 countries if you agency ways of practicing plan of scientists that 00:17:20.070 --> 00:17:23.610 stresses practicing plan of scientists people who do this for a living and ask 00:17:23.610 --> 00:17:27.540 them do you think climate change is real do you think humans are doing that you 00:17:27.540 --> 00:17:31.950 can see the numbers in red they're very very hard and I stress practicing kind 00:17:31.950 --> 00:17:35.940 of scientist not for example for a street journal had a letter to the 00:17:35.940 --> 00:17:39.480 editor a couple of years ago signed that 15 scientists saying that the science is 00:17:39.480 --> 00:17:42.510 not clear whenever there's a marketing professor from the Riordan Business 00:17:42.510 --> 00:17:47.730 School one of them in research and development director at ExxonMobil I'm 00:17:47.730 --> 00:17:51.410 talking about practicing climate scientists if you look at the 00:17:51.410 --> 00:17:56.160 the nature and power change is pretty conclusive that something is happening 00:17:56.160 --> 00:18:03.530 here and the first one abstracts of twelve thousand abstracts find that 97% 00:18:03.530 --> 00:18:07.740 endorsed this consensus a position on Iran out highlight this one for one 00:18:07.740 --> 00:18:11.760 second because this has been misquoted by many people staring at Barack Obama 00:18:11.760 --> 00:18:17.100 of Georgetown when he first laid out his policy proposals on climate change 00:18:17.100 --> 00:18:20.940 he said 97% of scientists say that climate change is real that is not true 00:18:20.940 --> 00:18:24.510 that is not what this paper says they looked at all the papers on climate 00:18:24.510 --> 00:18:29.670 change 97% of them indoors the consensus position is something's happening I want 00:18:29.670 --> 00:18:32.460 to bring that up in case you wanna throw that number out there ninety seven 00:18:32.460 --> 00:18:37.440 percent you'll get handed be ready get it right then your interest quite clear 00:18:37.440 --> 00:18:43.350 and at the end of the day the National Academy of Sciences and the triple-s 00:18:43.350 --> 00:18:48.720 usually of consensus describe the state of the science there's one side of the 00:18:48.720 --> 00:18:55.760 issue divided on the other side do people think in the United States 00:18:59.059 --> 00:19:32.550 between scientists areas is happening two thousand Americans believe them and 00:19:32.550 --> 00:19:35.700 the majority of Americans don't think the scientists think this happening I 00:19:35.700 --> 00:19:40.260 don't care where you stand on this issue sociologically this is fascinating the 00:19:40.260 --> 00:19:43.559 red is going on how can we understand this this is called a research agenda 00:19:43.559 --> 00:19:49.050 and I get started and so then I'm going to talk about today on communicating 00:19:49.050 --> 00:19:53.220 climate change it applies to a whole host of scientific issues today which 00:19:53.220 --> 00:19:58.080 have become extremely embedded within the culture wars the partisan divides 00:19:58.080 --> 00:20:04.320 the cultural debate within this country Pew Research Center and on the other 00:20:04.320 --> 00:20:09.030 hand side you ever wrote bad that's the survey of triple LS Santis on 00:20:09.030 --> 00:20:12.840 the left-hand side you're about that and that's public opinion and you could see 00:20:12.840 --> 00:20:16.890 climate change right there you have a thirty seven point gap but look at all 00:20:16.890 --> 00:20:21.030 the other issues we have big gaps between the consensus of science and 00:20:21.030 --> 00:20:25.470 public opinion and I call attention to the top one there's a 51 point gap 00:20:25.470 --> 00:20:30.780 between the other it's safe to eat genetically modified foods now I want to 00:20:30.780 --> 00:20:35.669 point this to out because it's um very important point in this talk while it's 00:20:35.669 --> 00:20:40.049 mostly conservative Republicans we're pushing the gap back against the science 00:20:40.049 --> 00:20:44.250 of climate change it's mostly little Democrats who think it's unsafe to eat 00:20:44.250 --> 00:20:48.450 your nose it's mostly Liberal Democrats who also choose not to vaccinate their 00:20:48.450 --> 00:20:52.919 children for fear that autism even though the science is quite clear this 00:20:52.919 --> 00:20:57.360 is not happening this is equal opportunity of distressing the science 00:20:57.360 --> 00:21:01.320 when it challenges your internal beliefs that's some important point years 00:21:01.320 --> 00:21:05.669 everyone to examine both the people are talented but also examine your own 00:21:05.669 --> 00:21:11.040 beliefs where they come from as I go through my remarks ok let's start and I 00:21:11.040 --> 00:21:15.510 want you to figure climate change is a cultural issue about a set of values 00:21:15.510 --> 00:21:19.290 around beliefs and I want to point out the difference between a scientific 00:21:19.290 --> 00:21:25.110 consensus and a social consensus a scientific consensus has reached by 00:21:25.110 --> 00:21:30.030 scientists using the scientific method publishing in peer-reviewed journals 00:21:30.030 --> 00:21:36.960 speaking at conferences writing books a social consensus involves a much larger 00:21:36.960 --> 00:21:42.270 array of people not always using completely rational means it's a very 00:21:42.270 --> 00:21:49.890 emotional debate so a social consensus politicians matter sports figures 00:21:49.890 --> 00:21:55.020 matters movie stars matter clergy matter the diagram the road matters 00:21:55.020 --> 00:22:01.110 your mayor matters everybody is part of this debate and it takes a lot longer to 00:22:01.110 --> 00:22:05.490 reach a social consensus than a scientific consensus and I found too 00:22:05.490 --> 00:22:09.720 many scientists who said you know the day to say this I have people accepting 00:22:09.720 --> 00:22:13.910 it well this is a and it takes us time to come to terms 00:22:13.910 --> 00:22:19.130 with the shift in reality the climate change presents have an advisor and I 00:22:19.130 --> 00:22:22.820 was a Baptist student who is an expert on nuclear waste repositories he came 00:22:22.820 --> 00:22:26.120 back from Washington Montana is elated because he was followed in his 00:22:26.120 --> 00:22:31.280 congressional testimony than Indian chief who's ran the race for grocery to 00:22:31.280 --> 00:22:34.040 get to Yucca Mountain he didn't understand who I was chief 00:22:34.040 --> 00:22:38.060 would be part of this conversation and I was amazed because he is part of the 00:22:38.060 --> 00:22:43.730 conversation we all have a conversation and a social consensus takes time think 00:22:43.730 --> 00:22:48.590 about the example cigarettes in cancer for decades the American public was told 00:22:48.590 --> 00:22:50.900 by scientists that cigarettes cause cancer 00:22:50.900 --> 00:22:56.110 for decades the American public rejected that position and continued to smoke 00:22:56.110 --> 00:23:01.190 there's a whole history reasons why they get information that values their holds 00:23:01.190 --> 00:23:11.330 and so forth and you can see you get in a steady barrage and they left their 00:23:11.330 --> 00:23:15.380 Baptist smoke camels than any other cigarette on a road no scientist 00:23:15.380 --> 00:23:19.790 meditators know Kent with a microlight filter and the middle of your dentist is 00:23:19.790 --> 00:23:24.140 actually recommending you smoke less raise people our finest or it's people 00:23:24.140 --> 00:23:28.100 even thought cigarettes are good field and they were sexy how things have 00:23:28.100 --> 00:23:33.350 changed we now have a social consensus that cigarettes cause cancer how do you 00:23:33.350 --> 00:23:37.280 know you have a social consensus because you're not afraid to talk about it with 00:23:37.280 --> 00:23:40.850 a total stranger because you know that's the proper way to think and understand 00:23:40.850 --> 00:23:46.520 about the world around us I merely to bet that if you sat down for breakfast 00:23:46.520 --> 00:23:49.940 with your son or daughter and they looked at a pack of cigarettes and said 00:23:49.940 --> 00:23:52.940 I've decided to start smoking you have a conversation with him do you understand 00:23:52.940 --> 00:23:54.920 what you're doing I understand what you're doing to your 00:23:54.920 --> 00:23:59.330 health I think is a bad idea I'm even going to bet that if you're sent about a 00:23:59.330 --> 00:24:02.870 niece or nephew that offended that he we've never met before 00:24:02.870 --> 00:24:06.410 we've got a path as soon as I said I'll decide to stop smoking you have the 00:24:06.410 --> 00:24:10.310 exact same conversation or them unison in doing understand why you're doing 00:24:10.310 --> 00:24:15.350 this to understand the implications because we had this is a social fact a 00:24:15.350 --> 00:24:18.530 social consensus around this issue social factors it turned by Emile 00:24:18.530 --> 00:24:23.580 Durkheim a sociologist from there nineteen hundred's we accept this as 00:24:23.580 --> 00:24:39.960 true we don't have a social consensus on climate change because people need 00:24:39.960 --> 00:24:43.800 friends or family that is jiaying the ranch's sex politics and religion is 00:24:43.800 --> 00:24:46.200 something you don't talk about in polite company 00:24:46.200 --> 00:24:51.180 because your real identify position how many people experience a situation where 00:24:51.180 --> 00:24:55.470 we're out of dinner or the cocktail party or something on top of the climate 00:24:55.470 --> 00:25:00.240 change comes up and you decide not to engage because you do not want to make 00:25:00.240 --> 00:25:05.450 it men pleasant atmosphere it is your head okay if there's a common experience 00:25:05.450 --> 00:25:13.530 if it's a sign of hope this has been pretty static 75% until this year he 00:25:13.530 --> 00:25:18.450 registered their recent study and they found that number drops 60% more people 00:25:18.450 --> 00:25:22.170 are starting to speak up and say I'm sorry climate change is real I'm sorry 00:25:22.170 --> 00:25:25.470 I'm gonna stand up for this where's this going I don't know I'll give you some 00:25:25.470 --> 00:25:29.310 other examples there's been a sudden blip this year that may give you hope 00:25:29.310 --> 00:25:34.130 I'm thinking going forward no how can we understand positions on climate change 00:25:34.130 --> 00:25:40.680 climate change is not just a band-aid binary yes-or-no people have a range of 00:25:40.680 --> 00:25:44.100 positions on this issue which are scientists crazy when a reporter put 00:25:44.100 --> 00:25:48.210 some motifs on space and says do you believe that ant energetic where the 00:25:48.210 --> 00:25:51.930 woman is true I mean you jam together a whole bunch of different questions and 00:25:51.930 --> 00:25:58.590 they're different shades of grey in the LEM there's some a nice work and they do 00:25:58.590 --> 00:26:02.280 a segmentation analysis at the American public it's called the Six America study 00:26:02.280 --> 00:26:07.350 they do it every year they do multiple countries and they're both people in 00:26:07.350 --> 00:26:11.040 different categories on their left is around this is a catastrophe this is a 00:26:11.040 --> 00:26:14.580 calamity we got to do something about it on the right is dismissive this is a 00:26:14.580 --> 00:26:18.150 joke this is a hoax James Inhofe this is the greatest hoax 00:26:18.150 --> 00:26:22.740 ever perpetrated on the American public and in the middle of varying degrees of 00:26:22.740 --> 00:26:26.790 not sure which way to go there's a couple things I want you to draw from 00:26:26.790 --> 00:26:29.210 this one 00:26:29.490 --> 00:26:34.590 pillars on either side they've made up their mind and say listen Laimbeer and 00:26:34.590 --> 00:26:39.360 I'm telling that plan to change if you find yourself having someone dismisses 00:26:39.360 --> 00:26:43.830 category my best advice is talk about football tavern have something else 00:26:43.830 --> 00:26:47.160 they're not there for an honest conversation they later in if you enjoy 00:26:47.160 --> 00:26:50.670 that kind of debate go for it I personally don't I really do it for an 00:26:50.670 --> 00:26:55.320 audience if there are people listening that I think can hear and listen to the 00:26:55.320 --> 00:26:59.850 debate I will do that but you know if you hit a sit-down of Rush Limbaugh 00:26:59.850 --> 00:27:03.179 James Inhofe that matter do you think you're gonna get any headway it's 00:27:03.179 --> 00:27:06.929 debatable and so many people on the other end that this is an extreme 00:27:06.929 --> 00:27:12.870 situation that the world is going to end tomorrow engage if you wish and cautious 00:27:12.870 --> 00:27:17.309 the undecided middle that's where the energy and the effort needs to be 00:27:17.309 --> 00:27:22.100 directed how do you get people to sway and move who am not clear on this issue 00:27:22.100 --> 00:27:30.330 now again I hope so fine this is from 2013 notice the distribution of the 00:27:30.330 --> 00:27:36.390 surveys and then 2018 is definitely pushed to the left now and more people 00:27:36.390 --> 00:27:40.020 are moving to the left and starting to see this is something that is really 00:27:40.020 --> 00:27:45.480 happening again a sign of hope that did the bait is starting to shift and I'll 00:27:45.480 --> 00:27:49.559 talk a bit more about that now how do you ever stand any people fit on this 00:27:49.559 --> 00:27:53.340 spectrum how can we make sense out of this well there's certain demographic 00:27:53.340 --> 00:27:58.140 variables that a general alarm we've concern to the Ameri it's women 00:27:58.140 --> 00:28:04.410 more than men it's even more than era it's the coasts made in the middle its 00:28:04.410 --> 00:28:09.660 educated more than less so it's a little more than less so if Democrat more than 00:28:09.660 --> 00:28:15.450 Republican it's liberal more than conservative on climate change all the 00:28:15.450 --> 00:28:18.330 demographic value of this very rare and the number one call it was sometimes 00:28:18.330 --> 00:28:22.200 brief on climate change is there a political party affiliation here's some 00:28:22.200 --> 00:28:29.070 who have been that I on the credit and rally done well on the scale if you can 00:28:29.070 --> 00:28:35.190 see it is 2001 to 2010 the red line is Republican to be honest Democrats same 00:28:35.190 --> 00:28:38.310 on top the red line is conservative the blue 00:28:38.310 --> 00:28:44.190 as liberal and what you can see over 10 years is Republicans and conservatives 00:28:44.190 --> 00:28:47.850 believe unless Infanta changed Democrats and liberals believe in more in climate 00:28:47.850 --> 00:28:51.960 change to me this is the smoking ban that is a cultural question have 00:28:51.960 --> 00:28:56.430 Democrats and Republicans talk about science in any different way no do they 00:28:56.430 --> 00:28:59.790 have a particularly weird um lands that are the native certain issues and see 00:28:59.790 --> 00:29:03.900 something different yes how can we understand that worldview and try and 00:29:03.900 --> 00:29:07.710 make some headway to move beyond it and an interesting point the way to be 00:29:07.710 --> 00:29:12.810 interested in this kind of stuff I presume your absence here here if you 00:29:12.810 --> 00:29:17.400 move back this way these lines meet in 1997 00:29:17.400 --> 00:29:22.410 now why was 1997 important that's the year of the Kyoto treaty that's the year 00:29:22.410 --> 00:29:26.730 they an issue there was primarily a scientific issue now became warm of 00:29:26.730 --> 00:29:31.560 importance the powerful political and economic interests and then mobilized 00:29:31.560 --> 00:29:36.600 and they responded as scientists were flat-footed the joke became is that the 00:29:36.600 --> 00:29:39.930 Marines going against those doubts they were totally outgunned they were not 00:29:39.930 --> 00:29:43.230 prepared for their back they're quite naive when they start to 00:29:43.230 --> 00:29:46.860 put their ideas out there the scientists tend to do that my research isn't 00:29:46.860 --> 00:29:50.820 political I hear that so many times and my answer is if you asking people to 00:29:50.820 --> 00:29:55.320 change their beliefs or their behavior it is political by definition when you 00:29:55.320 --> 00:29:57.990 ask people to change our beliefs or their behavior they will push back 00:29:57.990 --> 00:30:03.480 people don't like to be told this and that's what this work is doing now there 00:30:03.480 --> 00:30:07.880 is a turn around 2009 is starting to come back that among 00:30:07.880 --> 00:30:16.160 Republicans you can see in 2013 about 50% and then again this latest survey 00:30:16.160 --> 00:30:20.010 68% of liberal moderate Republicans think for everyone and is happening 00:30:20.010 --> 00:30:25.170 that's a 14-point jump and 55% of liberal and moderate Republicans think 00:30:25.170 --> 00:30:28.950 it is mostly caused by humans an interesting point when you ask people 00:30:28.950 --> 00:30:33.540 why you changed the position on climate change what's the answer then we would 00:30:33.540 --> 00:30:37.380 rather heaven the wildfires in California at the hurricane in Houston 00:30:37.380 --> 00:30:42.150 Puerto Rico the flooding in the Midwest right now it's changing people's 00:30:42.150 --> 00:30:48.150 thinking on this issue the weird weather so maybe that's a sign of hope there are 00:30:48.150 --> 00:30:51.509 others Israel years gotten quite excited about the 00:30:51.509 --> 00:30:57.480 results of the latest study in the decision 2013 to 2018 consistently up 00:30:57.480 --> 00:31:01.529 there trends I think it's happening I'm made about it f it is hearing calls 00:31:01.529 --> 00:31:04.620 the real han Americans that fit most scientists agree it's happening they 00:31:04.620 --> 00:31:07.529 will hand me personally that's very interesting or the harmony person is 00:31:07.529 --> 00:31:10.620 typically climate change like it's going to happen to somebody else 00:31:10.620 --> 00:31:14.309 same place as far into the future it's happening now 00:31:14.309 --> 00:31:19.440 to people you know may be happening to you it's important to me personally our 00:31:19.440 --> 00:31:24.450 Valley experienced its effects there's a shift there's growing how can they 00:31:24.450 --> 00:31:34.159 understand us so that Iran Iraq 2 is 3 points 4 points is social science and 00:31:53.750 --> 00:32:00.090 painting you accept something if it confirms a review you reject it if a 00:32:00.090 --> 00:32:04.350 challenges your view will be at least initially Jonathan Haidt if you've 00:32:04.350 --> 00:32:09.029 really and is with happiness hypothesis he talks about this that when they faced 00:32:09.029 --> 00:32:13.889 the challenge of information that were unfamiliar the challenges I read you I 00:32:13.889 --> 00:32:18.000 emotions kick in and really fast well history reasons we'll explain in a 00:32:18.000 --> 00:32:22.409 second but our motions come in really fast and our reason comes in a very 00:32:22.409 --> 00:32:26.580 distant second so you're like to say when the hennas on issues like this we 00:32:26.580 --> 00:32:29.789 don't behave that scientists would behave like the lawyers who's made a 00:32:29.789 --> 00:32:34.409 conclusion and that the transformation just support that conclusion and if we 00:32:34.409 --> 00:32:38.190 could slow down our motions maybe use our reason better we can move forward 00:32:38.190 --> 00:32:43.769 then we are do it we didn't simply as we do in complex ways I'm driving that path 00:32:43.769 --> 00:32:48.480 is a rally in the red corner right front quarter where does not burying them in a 00:32:48.480 --> 00:32:51.789 literal information to confirm the conclusion that I don't 00:32:51.789 --> 00:32:56.859 to a mechanic and spend money on this town visit standing at our there's a 00:32:56.859 --> 00:33:14.489 loose belt we all do it now which we 00:33:39.450 --> 00:33:44.919 knew from Michigan to Texas I watched his politics slowly swing to the right 00:33:44.919 --> 00:33:48.429 because he was surrounded by an environment in which those politics are 00:33:48.429 --> 00:33:53.139 real it's important message to undergrads and master students or anyone 00:33:53.139 --> 00:33:58.029 really you'd be able to accompany as best you can take a little closer look 00:33:58.029 --> 00:34:02.799 at that culture because sooner or later that culture will have its way no one is 00:34:02.799 --> 00:34:07.659 the supreme individual to resist those kinds of pressures and so motivated 00:34:07.659 --> 00:34:11.379 reasoning and cultural cognition is what it's called 00:34:11.379 --> 00:34:17.589 literally associated also we trust he is a representative our tribe we do trust 00:34:17.589 --> 00:34:22.780 for information I offer you two days I've been do this to any audience any 00:34:22.780 --> 00:34:29.409 political party affiliation one run chances are you are not dressed well Al 00:34:29.409 --> 00:34:34.389 Gore that's Linda which one represents your tribe who do 00:34:34.389 --> 00:34:39.339 you trust does the other one someone you don't trust which news sources do you 00:34:39.339 --> 00:34:45.849 listen to which ones do you trust Fox News MPL there's actually research data 00:34:45.849 --> 00:34:49.119 to show the main US Fox News the less you believe in climate change may listen 00:34:49.119 --> 00:34:53.829 your NPR some may believe in climate change so will you get your information 00:34:53.829 --> 00:34:59.920 the diet you get social media business as well who do you send on Facebook 00:34:59.920 --> 00:35:03.590 LinkedIn or Twitter or into the other platforms 00:35:03.590 --> 00:35:09.680 which I'm not completely familiar defend their people that share we read you how 00:35:09.680 --> 00:35:13.310 many people in this audience have ever unfounded someone or unfollow someone 00:35:13.310 --> 00:35:18.290 because they've posted or continue to post positions that you found contrary 00:35:18.290 --> 00:35:25.820 to your LG raise your hand you have gathering information to you that you 00:35:25.820 --> 00:35:28.850 confirm they read you and you have filtering out information that will 00:35:28.850 --> 00:35:34.100 challenge it a picture's worth a thousand words and there's some such 00:35:34.100 --> 00:35:39.220 that the ABC of Indiana bit study to illustrate what I'm saying right here 00:35:39.220 --> 00:35:44.270 before the midterm elections they ran an algorithm the Cody the liberal 00:35:44.270 --> 00:35:47.660 conservative and then they look at who retweeted here and this is where it 00:35:47.660 --> 00:35:51.950 shows you get a very clear in the real conversation and a very clear 00:35:51.950 --> 00:35:55.910 conservative conversation this is what social media is guarantee us this is 00:35:55.910 --> 00:36:00.080 what social media is doing to opponent discourse and they all feed into it I 00:36:00.080 --> 00:36:02.930 didn't mean to shame anybody asking raise our hand because I've done it 00:36:02.930 --> 00:36:07.310 myself we've all done it this manifests itself 00:36:07.310 --> 00:36:12.890 into a political situation that is quite complicated for us right now this where 00:36:12.890 --> 00:36:18.260 Tina from the Pew Research Center in 2017 in there to see in 1994 the 00:36:18.260 --> 00:36:25.390 difference in the moon between Democrats or Republicans very tight stay tight 00:36:25.390 --> 00:36:31.370 2017 you look at the day divided and look at the chasm in between and that 00:36:31.370 --> 00:36:35.180 when we're baking them they're different trials and I also look at that no wonder 00:36:35.180 --> 00:36:39.440 is it possible to legislate from the middle right now I don't know I really 00:36:39.440 --> 00:36:44.810 don't know and but this would say no probably because we are dividing into 00:36:44.810 --> 00:36:50.030 groups that source our information trust our information in different ways now 00:36:50.030 --> 00:36:59.930 you put these two together so obviously exactly idea a cultural identity will 00:36:59.930 --> 00:37:03.050 overpower scientific reasoning psychologists have to say we are 00:37:03.050 --> 00:37:07.400 cognitive misers we have a certain amount of cognitive ability and we spend 00:37:07.400 --> 00:37:10.720 it though miserly and get annoyed when you have to 00:37:10.720 --> 00:37:16.000 spend it unnecessarily I remember vividly the first time I went into an 00:37:16.000 --> 00:37:20.320 organic food store and there was previously an automatic decision that 00:37:20.320 --> 00:37:28.720 Venice Arab you had mature is a rapid air and I had to spend five minutes 00:37:28.720 --> 00:37:35.280 figure in a not too bad I'm not that bad the closest thing that what to choose I 00:37:35.280 --> 00:37:39.760 did not want to spend cognitive energy and that I saw is a fairly simple 00:37:39.760 --> 00:37:48.400 decision buying materials we all do this so you can read all the scientific 00:37:48.400 --> 00:37:52.890 reports on climate change come to your conclusion where you may say you know 00:37:52.890 --> 00:37:56.890 George Santa Street he seems pretty knowledgeable about this kind of stuff 00:37:56.890 --> 00:38:02.230 and George says it's true so I'm down the jurors that makes sense well in a 00:38:02.230 --> 00:38:06.310 pastor of our church she seems to really understand these issues and she says 00:38:06.310 --> 00:38:11.109 it's not true I'm going with going to the pastor and they find shortcuts to 00:38:11.109 --> 00:38:15.609 get ourselves through this a famous sociologist from the turn of the last 00:38:15.609 --> 00:38:21.700 century Max Weber has a really nice idea and we get through a day by activating 00:38:21.700 --> 00:38:26.670 black boxes if you didn't activate bad boxes you couldn't get through your day 00:38:26.670 --> 00:38:32.020 then explained I give in that pattern it on I've been the house engine works but 00:38:32.020 --> 00:38:36.480 it gets me where I need to go if I couldn't get out of my driver 00:38:57.880 --> 00:39:03.500 if you open every single box you become an emotional cripple you can't do it you 00:39:03.500 --> 00:39:08.510 can't get to your day and I really and many people do not open the bat box of 00:39:08.510 --> 00:39:12.410 science the National Science Foundation to the survey of the American public 00:39:12.410 --> 00:39:14.570 from the two-thirds of the American public 00:39:14.570 --> 00:39:19.460 do you not understand science or the scientific process and yet if you look 00:39:19.460 --> 00:39:24.260 at surveys the American public heads of 80 to 90 percent think they understand 00:39:24.260 --> 00:39:30.470 climate science so they don't open the backpacks that they make opinions that 00:39:30.470 --> 00:39:35.329 make decisions based on shortcuts and it's where we are do we have to do it 00:39:35.329 --> 00:39:47.300 together and our position aligns with our cultural identity providing 00:39:47.300 --> 00:39:51.619 additional scientific data can make us more resolute enlisting resistant 00:39:51.619 --> 00:39:56.240 conclusions for their advance for their cultural beliefs what that means is you 00:39:56.240 --> 00:39:59.930 need someone who says climate change is a hoax what do you do well you rip out 00:39:59.930 --> 00:40:03.980 your powerpoint deck and you start to give them a science lesson away hearing 00:40:03.980 --> 00:40:11.540 I've never seen the science I'm not buying it given their silence well in a 00:40:11.540 --> 00:40:15.380 second this person thinks I'm an idiot what are they doing they're digging 00:40:15.380 --> 00:40:19.250 their heels and their founding the conversation sparring in your nightmare 00:40:19.250 --> 00:40:23.420 yeah because to you the science is clear to them they've already rejected it then 00:40:23.420 --> 00:40:27.230 they rejected their fill whole host of reasons and if you don't go there you're 00:40:27.230 --> 00:40:33.589 stuck they don't trust the challenge and communication is overcoming distrust and 00:40:33.589 --> 00:40:37.280 that's been a gonna focus the rest of my remarks on that I want to take one move 00:40:37.280 --> 00:40:41.580 detour and add a source hint to those being on the public 00:40:41.580 --> 00:40:46.140 discourse and that is a political economy and a confused public debate 00:40:46.140 --> 00:40:49.500 creates resistance and inertia for change there are people who lose money 00:40:49.500 --> 00:40:55.020 or political power over this issue and they are confusing the debate we have 00:40:55.020 --> 00:41:00.390 news national geographic urban area Orchestra and they are on sand there 00:41:00.390 --> 00:41:03.660 Jenny McCarthy is also joined by Bobby Kennedy jr. by the way is saying that 00:41:03.660 --> 00:41:07.740 vaccines are dangerous ExxonMobil fifties I wanna pay you 00:41:07.740 --> 00:41:14.070 attention to these two on the Left Cirrus and David journals are 00:41:14.070 --> 00:41:19.020 proliferating and the American public can't tell the difference the can't ever 00:41:19.020 --> 00:41:23.730 dips are good signs of bad science you can pay any amount of money right now 00:41:23.730 --> 00:41:28.680 and find a journal to publish anything you are a scientist trying to prove this 00:41:28.680 --> 00:41:32.490 is true so publish the paper maybe you can't see it - clearly it's right there 00:41:32.490 --> 00:41:36.960 you can look it up on the web but tell them to pay is take me off your effing 00:41:36.960 --> 00:41:43.500 Marianist the paper is merely a repeat of that sentence over and over again it 00:41:43.500 --> 00:41:54.660 even has a chart take mass that's obviously bogus the relators coming out 00:41:54.660 --> 00:41:59.880 that aren't obviously bogus that are confusing people on this issue and 00:41:59.880 --> 00:42:05.310 leading to a punch line falling away they left all scientists agree about 00:42:05.310 --> 00:42:10.350 Braddock Bailey Wrentham this is a bill but that in a very sarcastic quotes it's 00:42:10.350 --> 00:42:15.990 produced by we're not called the IPCC but group called the nipcc renowned and 00:42:15.990 --> 00:42:19.860 abet mental panel on climate change it's actually produced by the Heartland 00:42:19.860 --> 00:42:25.020 Institute they published 125,000 copies of this book and the decision to K 00:42:25.020 --> 00:42:28.860 through 12 science teachers trying to influence the parallel curriculum and K 00:42:28.860 --> 00:42:35.550 through 12 science classes this is what's going on who has a responsibility 00:42:35.550 --> 00:42:40.170 to fight this who has a responsibility to educate the public on science I 00:42:40.170 --> 00:42:46.800 believe it says I believe that academics have an obligation a responsibility to 00:42:46.800 --> 00:42:50.410 step into public and political discourse and engage the 00:42:50.410 --> 00:42:55.270 to become their science teachers on these issues if we don't do it we will 00:42:55.270 --> 00:43:01.120 suffer both attacks on the institutions of the Academy and they will suffer from 00:43:01.120 --> 00:43:06.370 appellate debate that is totally misinformed the problem is that most 00:43:06.370 --> 00:43:09.900 academics don't think it's their job 00:43:15.720 --> 00:43:24.490 this or talking to you K through 12 students or a town hall they even had a 00:43:24.490 --> 00:43:30.580 peds 10-year review promote for the most part they were G for 11 publications 00:43:30.580 --> 00:43:33.700 there's something amiss there's something wrong and there are changes 00:43:33.700 --> 00:43:38.530 afoot to try and change that the staff it about the engaged scholar different 00:43:38.530 --> 00:43:43.930 matters of how to be a professor including alerting people for engaging 00:43:43.930 --> 00:43:47.350 the public and political discourse and the hope I have that the Academy will 00:43:47.350 --> 00:43:52.030 change comes from young people I see young people coming into the field young 00:43:52.030 --> 00:43:56.200 PhD students that want to have an impact in their work they are not going to be 00:43:56.200 --> 00:43:58.750 satisfied with citation counts and h-index 00:43:58.750 --> 00:44:02.320 as a measure of their impact they actually want to share their actual and 00:44:02.320 --> 00:44:06.220 have an impact in the real world and I see a lot of exciting stuff coming from 00:44:06.220 --> 00:44:09.730 young people at the University of Michigan you had a group of square 00:44:09.730 --> 00:44:13.990 doctor students and postdocs the family that's it the Ripper so if you never 00:44:13.990 --> 00:44:17.380 teach us we're going to teach ourselves and it created this group that we're 00:44:17.380 --> 00:44:22.000 late and it's an awful happen in which I can never remember research and lay a 00:44:22.000 --> 00:44:26.650 bet that there are creative courses for themselves how you develop a social 00:44:26.650 --> 00:44:30.670 media presence how do you talk to join us are you type of government how do you 00:44:30.670 --> 00:44:33.990 have to business people how do you engage in community-based research 00:44:33.990 --> 00:44:38.860 they're teaching each other an interesting thing I've talked to many of 00:44:38.860 --> 00:44:43.000 the organizers and they afraid to tell their value they're doing it because 00:44:43.000 --> 00:44:46.450 they didn't want their advisor to punish them for their stuff outside what 00:44:46.450 --> 00:44:52.180 they're supposed to do as PhD students I think that is changing slowly and now 00:44:52.180 --> 00:44:55.359 the universities flow behind them get funding from the University and now 00:44:55.359 --> 00:44:59.890 that it's successful their visors are stopping another back good job but 00:44:59.890 --> 00:45:05.020 they're genuinely nervous because the years of academia are in flux and we 00:45:05.020 --> 00:45:08.200 don't know where they're going that young people I believe will change the 00:45:08.200 --> 00:45:14.010 Academy and that gives me hope so I just want to add that there's a short side on 00:45:14.010 --> 00:45:19.030 the rail of academics have to play and trying to change public discourse it's 00:45:19.030 --> 00:45:23.650 our obligation so responsibility my editorial opinion not necessarily rather 00:45:23.650 --> 00:45:27.099 than a university although I've actually as the president has been pushing this 00:45:27.099 --> 00:45:32.500 idea now going back narrative distrust what I want to do is after your friends 00:45:32.500 --> 00:45:37.570 are distrust for ways to overcome them and then as I told you I'm going to tell 00:45:37.570 --> 00:45:43.770 you it attacked oh yeah I'm going to end a little story let's begin imitating 00:45:43.770 --> 00:45:48.430 imitating climate change is somebody and even not through any one of these the 00:45:48.430 --> 00:45:53.260 first people distress the messengers the messengers is important is the message 00:45:53.260 --> 00:45:56.920 on climate change we are the camera messages on climate change Democratic 00:45:56.920 --> 00:46:01.839 politicians environmentalists and scientists and there are people in the 00:46:01.839 --> 00:46:06.339 American public that distrust one two or three of those groups benefit 00:46:06.339 --> 00:46:11.109 politicians that's pre straightforward that people don't trust Democrats then 00:46:11.109 --> 00:46:15.820 they hate the most how they are manufactured this issue in 00:46:15.820 --> 00:46:23.430 order to make himself rich this is a joke I did a study looking at a tourism 00:46:23.430 --> 00:46:28.690 on climate change Kota members over prayer measure an T of those alien 00:46:28.690 --> 00:46:34.240 entities 75% mentioned Al Gore and not in a nice way they'd like to take shots 00:46:34.240 --> 00:46:39.460 at them so that is fairly straight for the environmentalists I should point out 00:46:39.460 --> 00:46:42.910 that when I talked to my backhoe student and told her about my meeting of the 00:46:42.910 --> 00:46:46.930 potential donor and the invitation about the home Institute and I said I couldn't 00:46:46.930 --> 00:46:52.390 go well I'll get up and said I'll go and so she went and she listened to the talk 00:46:52.390 --> 00:46:56.450 she read the literature and we paper and the bow my friends they use 00:46:56.450 --> 00:47:01.910 within a half an inch to conference Howard a fairness issue and one thing 00:47:01.910 --> 00:47:06.380 she found was the deep distrust for environmentalists they're an expression 00:47:06.380 --> 00:47:10.220 of a mentalist with their animal they're green on the 00:47:10.220 --> 00:47:14.690 outside but on the inside they're socialists borderline communists they 00:47:14.690 --> 00:47:19.850 want to use the government to infringe upon their freedom and control your eyes 00:47:19.850 --> 00:47:26.920 they don't trust them listen to a talk show on the radio past Michigan which 00:47:26.920 --> 00:47:33.200 can get amazing so saying they all know the environmental movement is pagan at 00:47:33.200 --> 00:47:37.790 its core didn't skip a beat and they just kept on going they don't trust them 00:47:37.790 --> 00:47:42.590 and then third scientists and I want a scientist really about this but this is 00:47:42.590 --> 00:47:46.910 not new the book for one appeared surprise in 1964 is called anti 00:47:46.910 --> 00:47:51.140 intellectualism in America now Jim hosta I wrote it very plain today there's a 00:47:51.140 --> 00:47:54.820 lot of people distress scientists they sit in ivory tower 00:47:54.820 --> 00:47:59.750 sitting there operated using language at understand talking about concepts I 00:47:59.750 --> 00:48:02.330 can't comprehend and we have a disproportionate influence on the 00:48:02.330 --> 00:48:05.390 political process that interests them the answer happened 00:48:05.390 --> 00:48:09.880 their deity religion they also happen to lean left I distrust them even more 00:48:09.880 --> 00:48:16.010 there is a survey of Republican voters last year they found that two-thirds of 00:48:16.010 --> 00:48:20.210 registered Republican voters think that universities have a negative influence 00:48:20.210 --> 00:48:24.320 on society that's what we're dealing with that's what's going on so we have 00:48:24.320 --> 00:48:27.290 trustees boobs so what do you do about it 00:48:27.290 --> 00:48:32.870 well you find climate brokers if you're engaging in debate on climate change do 00:48:32.870 --> 00:48:39.070 not invoke out there do not invoke at EPA invoke people that they trust 00:48:39.070 --> 00:48:46.760 satis for example when the CEO of cargo says that climate change is real and if 00:48:46.760 --> 00:48:49.730 you don't do something about it we have food sugars in the short to medium term 00:48:49.730 --> 00:48:54.710 that has power to influence people that if any often said it would be a totally 00:48:54.710 --> 00:48:57.610 different story suddenly Battaglia demonstrate this is 00:48:57.610 --> 00:49:04.150 CEO Cargill when Republican politicians come out and say this is real that has a 00:49:04.150 --> 00:49:08.320 power they reach an audience that is different than what a democratic 00:49:08.320 --> 00:49:13.240 politician can reach Bob Inglis has been real making it his mission to get the 00:49:13.240 --> 00:49:17.320 Republican Party to be honest it's a very conservative Republican when the 00:49:17.320 --> 00:49:21.160 Pope comes out with an insuperable letter saying that we need to do 00:49:21.160 --> 00:49:25.000 something about this he can reach audiences at all from a secular 00:49:25.000 --> 00:49:31.090 University cannot these are Baker's that you can invoke and we need men we need 00:49:31.090 --> 00:49:34.690 workers from the market to say we can do this without destroying the economy and 00:49:34.690 --> 00:49:38.020 our quality of life we need mail breakfast from the conservative right I 00:49:38.020 --> 00:49:41.800 want evangelicals to hear from um Joker's that they trust businesspeople 00:49:41.800 --> 00:49:45.220 to hear from business people that they trust I want people to hear from people 00:49:45.220 --> 00:49:50.770 that they trust figure for each other to figure out who they trust and vote those 00:49:50.770 --> 00:49:58.420 kind of people so there's fan of distrust number one number two they 00:49:58.420 --> 00:50:01.359 distrust the process of created the message and I talked about this the 00:50:01.359 --> 00:50:05.500 beginning they don't trust the scientific process the lab it is that 00:50:05.500 --> 00:50:09.310 you and your funding if you satisfy the political interests or funders you only 00:50:09.310 --> 00:50:12.150 get publisher he says for the political interests a relative's 00:50:12.150 --> 00:50:16.090 those of us who do this no that's not true but that's at play that my 00:50:16.090 --> 00:50:19.780 potential donor started in that that's very strong and a lot of them 00:50:19.780 --> 00:50:24.369 interesting leonesse fear that the university got broken with the 00:50:24.369 --> 00:50:28.359 foundation the National Science Foundation in 1940s after year they're - 00:50:28.359 --> 00:50:32.350 there's a question of what do we do with all this scientific work that is done to 00:50:32.350 --> 00:50:36.040 help us when the real that's China to society and the deadness over funding 00:50:36.040 --> 00:50:39.880 research and people think once that happened University just became another 00:50:39.880 --> 00:50:43.600 political interest with their hands out from the government send any money and 00:50:43.600 --> 00:50:48.670 their objectivity became questioned and they certainly don't trust the United 00:50:48.670 --> 00:50:51.250 Nations and they do not trust the IPCC that's a threat to our national 00:50:51.250 --> 00:50:57.400 sovereignty so that's at play so what do you do about that but it is a strong 00:50:57.400 --> 00:50:59.880 correlation between belief in the science and belief 00:50:59.880 --> 00:51:04.380 in that the scientists believe this is true and Abbey's and climate change so 00:51:04.380 --> 00:51:06.810 when people say the planet change is not true to me 00:51:06.810 --> 00:51:11.880 I do not debate sunspots and solar flares or volcanoes or any of the other 00:51:11.880 --> 00:51:18.420 theories they have also stated this chocolate 200 scientific agencies say 00:51:18.420 --> 00:51:24.330 this is real what do you know that they don't know I trust the institutional 00:51:24.330 --> 00:51:29.280 science I believe things even though I'll never be able to prove them I 00:51:29.280 --> 00:51:33.000 believe for example is something called an atom I believe it has neutrons flying 00:51:33.000 --> 00:51:37.410 around electrons travel around the center I believe this body has known 00:51:37.410 --> 00:51:40.680 upper billions of these I will never see one but I believe it's true because 00:51:40.680 --> 00:51:45.180 trust the institutions of science and that's the way I play it forward and so 00:51:45.180 --> 00:51:48.840 that's for that hang on and if you can get people to recognize your scientist I 00:51:48.840 --> 00:51:53.610 pretty clear on this one open stuff they can start to get some chipping away like 00:51:53.610 --> 00:51:56.760 the position and then separate the problem from the station so and they say 00:51:56.760 --> 00:51:59.580 Adam David climate change because we're gonna destroy the economy by these crazy 00:51:59.580 --> 00:52:04.710 environmentalists to the fishes maybe an honest statement so I believe climate 00:52:04.710 --> 00:52:08.040 change is real but we just don't care people coming over the solution that 00:52:08.040 --> 00:52:11.700 will not end their life as we know that would be an honest statement but 00:52:11.700 --> 00:52:16.080 separate the problem from decision very far in distress and they distrust the 00:52:16.080 --> 00:52:20.760 method itself and they are dispersed will climate scenarios how many be there 00:52:20.760 --> 00:52:24.660 to say the maybe the day after tomorrow raise your hand like that this is 00:52:24.660 --> 00:52:29.100 without a doubt the worst way to do those people the climate change is real 00:52:29.100 --> 00:52:33.180 the idea of Manhattan in the water if Manas 00:52:33.180 --> 00:52:38.000 she's meeting on Madison Avenue people see this nice thing this is preposterous 00:52:38.000 --> 00:52:44.610 people actually think the world is a good place 00:52:50.309 --> 00:52:54.660 it's interesting when people actually experience extreme weather hurricanes 00:52:54.660 --> 00:52:57.809 and things like that they start to disrupt that's called they're just weird 00:52:57.809 --> 00:53:01.410 theory but for the most part believe people believe the world is a good place 00:53:01.410 --> 00:53:06.720 and so when you start to present these doomsday scenarios it starts to 00:53:06.720 --> 00:53:13.109 demoralize people that start to shut down like his miniature book and daddy 00:53:13.109 --> 00:53:17.099 and his no never senior moment but at Oxford here's a book on climate change 00:53:17.099 --> 00:53:21.180 and he has two appendices that I really like the first one is red can of 00:53:21.180 --> 00:53:26.369 skeptics Owen isn't really over but the other one is this is a clan of 00:53:26.369 --> 00:53:32.760 extremists Eddie this is our area and in terms of climate porn it's extreme it's 00:53:32.760 --> 00:53:37.920 meant to excite it's titillating and it's false and a lot of people is there 00:53:37.920 --> 00:53:42.480 to this to try and scare people into mobilize around climate change is not a 00:53:42.480 --> 00:53:45.480 very good way to go there's an interesting debate right now on this 00:53:45.480 --> 00:53:54.750 topic and you can fire in 2017 there's a cover story in magazine did is he took 00:53:54.750 --> 00:54:03.869 all the scary look at the sense condition and the letters to the editor 00:54:03.869 --> 00:54:06.690 is a fascinating debate the people coming in saying we shouldn't do this 00:54:06.690 --> 00:54:10.290 you shouldn't scare the bejesus out of people it shuts them bad and he holds 00:54:10.290 --> 00:54:15.150 his ground says that you've got to give people the range of the spectrum 00:54:15.150 --> 00:54:18.630 possibilities you have to tell in the worst case in order for people to make 00:54:18.630 --> 00:54:24.510 informed decisions psychologists disagree about that look at it is bad 00:54:24.510 --> 00:54:28.799 and he got rather sadly more advanced to turn that out up into a book which just 00:54:28.799 --> 00:54:33.030 came out so you can buy the book welfare's neva neva the magazine I'm 00:54:33.030 --> 00:54:37.230 version but it's a very interesting debate and does it help people to scare 00:54:37.230 --> 00:54:44.910 them psychologists send out yeah this one is a very important and if 00:54:44.910 --> 00:54:49.680 you if this if nothing else convinces you if there's a subtext on this issue 00:54:49.680 --> 00:54:53.340 that keeps people from being in the chime climate change this should do it 00:54:53.340 --> 00:54:56.910 there are people who'd believe that you cannot believe in climate change and 00:54:56.910 --> 00:55:00.900 even though at the same time rush that limb by the very entire show to that 00:55:00.900 --> 00:55:06.540 very statement the idea is this hubris for humans to think we are so filled 00:55:06.540 --> 00:55:11.250 that we've been acting available climate we are now sure that their God is in 00:55:11.250 --> 00:55:20.760 charge out there was someone holding a Bible he said God promised no you have 00:55:20.760 --> 00:55:25.380 never fled the eighth again the seas cannot be rising this is what you're up 00:55:25.380 --> 00:55:31.950 against this tomorrow nine demonstrates the seriousness of this debate you're 00:55:31.950 --> 00:55:35.490 actually challenging people's belief in God with the idea of climate change I 00:55:35.490 --> 00:55:38.910 gave a talk once anyone who came up to me she was quite upset she said I 00:55:38.910 --> 00:55:42.000 believe in science I'm a scientist myself having bad just 00:55:42.000 --> 00:55:46.320 but it come from a very conservative tradition traditional Christian family 00:55:46.320 --> 00:55:51.420 and they look at climate change through the lens of Revelations graduation says 00:55:51.420 --> 00:55:54.600 there is going to end there for climate change certainly looks like the girls 00:55:54.600 --> 00:56:00.140 going to end their father maybe as far as where I farted then you say to that I 00:56:00.140 --> 00:56:04.170 tried I said ran like that maybe got a little 00:56:04.170 --> 00:56:07.050 too flippant I said maybe that's kind of saying is saying they're all gonna die 00:56:07.050 --> 00:56:11.250 when they say why not get again and hasten the process that in order to well 00:56:11.250 --> 00:56:18.180 I said well you know the road is not going to end tomorrow and it'll cause 00:56:18.180 --> 00:56:22.470 great suffering mostly for people who didn't do this people in low-lying on is 00:56:22.470 --> 00:56:26.940 a Bangladesh in other places is that consistent with your Christian energy to 00:56:26.940 --> 00:56:30.180 protect the poor and that's the only different headway but they've been 00:56:30.180 --> 00:56:35.270 downsized for me to think that I as a professor from and out of all places 00:56:35.270 --> 00:56:41.470 could actually change millennia of Christian religious belief 00:56:41.470 --> 00:56:45.550 on this issue again that's where the Pope's encyclical letter comes in 00:56:45.550 --> 00:56:48.760 because he said something very important where he said we've been misinterpreting 00:56:48.760 --> 00:56:54.580 the Genesis mandate for millennia that we are not here to dominate nature they 00:56:54.580 --> 00:56:59.230 were supposed to be stewards to keep him till he said it is known to ask to be 00:56:59.230 --> 00:57:04.330 handed on to the next generation and desire to say to pollute and damage this 00:57:04.330 --> 00:57:08.950 environment is theft for future generations there is a culture shift I 00:57:08.950 --> 00:57:12.760 find that intriguing of just thinking differently about morality 00:57:12.760 --> 00:57:20.650 that's what evidence verifying Berger frames this is the most powerful power I 00:57:20.650 --> 00:57:24.870 can think to try and help you communicate climate change find a way 00:57:24.870 --> 00:57:29.920 that will convince the people that you're talking to in Iran if they will 00:57:29.920 --> 00:57:34.150 understand so I do taxi business audiences all the time I gave a 00:57:34.150 --> 00:57:38.050 chaplains to a group called the Michigan Manufacturers Association and I find an 00:57:38.050 --> 00:57:41.890 often invited to business groups by the head of the trade association because 00:57:41.890 --> 00:57:46.600 trade associations typically follow the lowest common denominator and so they 00:57:46.600 --> 00:57:51.010 weren't excited to hear from me let's just say that defendants have began 00:57:51.010 --> 00:57:55.210 agenda came in and a slap the book on the table and the book was called the 00:57:55.210 --> 00:58:01.330 climate hoax so how kind of New Year's questions we're going to go now my talk 00:58:01.330 --> 00:58:08.170 is regulation is going to drive us consumers care about this insurance 00:58:08.170 --> 00:58:12.340 companies are changing their premiums or coverage investors the impact investment 00:58:12.340 --> 00:58:17.320 is huge supply changes shifting I don't talk about co2 Adel I talk about market 00:58:17.320 --> 00:58:22.630 shifts so when he interrupted me he said this is all nonsense this is climate 00:58:22.630 --> 00:58:27.250 change is a hoax what about saying I said all don't care he could be mastered 00:58:27.250 --> 00:58:30.790 about the science of climate change still see as a business issue regulation 00:58:30.790 --> 00:58:34.810 of change of market consumers will buy your products or not buy them supply 00:58:34.810 --> 00:58:38.290 chains of shifting insurance companies are moving and investors care about this 00:58:38.290 --> 00:58:43.600 what could he say I put it in his language conversation over off we go 00:58:43.600 --> 00:58:47.750 there are many frames you can say this is an issue is simple 00:58:47.750 --> 00:58:51.650 risk management saying they say yeah climate change is real but the impacts 00:58:51.650 --> 00:58:58.400 of enemy mana you can imagine say okay you have to feel wrong because we do in 00:58:58.400 --> 00:59:03.050 those kinds of your screen a very high consequence events by the time arrives 00:59:03.050 --> 00:59:09.080 I have fair insurance on my house the advert of burning down a low the impact 00:59:09.080 --> 00:59:13.970 on my finances would be devastating I'll take that insurance insurance on climate 00:59:13.970 --> 00:59:19.010 change is investment in technology and behavior change hmm what if you're wrong 00:59:19.010 --> 00:59:22.880 well we've invested in some insurance that's been insurance is about you don't 00:59:22.880 --> 00:59:27.230 always make a claim that works you define this as national security the 00:59:27.230 --> 00:59:31.040 group is retired army generals is said of climate change happens we have 00:59:31.040 --> 00:59:34.580 destabilized regions around the world the military will have to be on a handle 00:59:34.580 --> 00:59:38.090 it it's an issue of national security you define this as national 00:59:38.090 --> 00:59:41.180 competitive's time Friedman's been doing this for a long time saying if we don't 00:59:41.180 --> 00:59:45.620 develop enough technologies and mobility the naval energy Germany and China will 00:59:45.620 --> 00:59:49.130 do it we'll buy the technology from them is that what you want that can get some 00:59:49.130 --> 00:59:56.470 traction the lancet has called this the member on health risk for this century 00:59:56.470 --> 01:00:00.950 and now you've done something very important you have made a personal 01:00:00.950 --> 01:00:05.030 salient one of problems of climate changes I can't see co2 I can't feel 01:00:05.030 --> 01:00:08.810 mean temperature doing that but if you can make it personal and health makes it 01:00:08.810 --> 01:00:12.950 personal with elevated temperatures happen in urban centers evaluate our 01:00:12.950 --> 01:00:17.090 population will get sick they would die as this happened in Chicago Paris and 01:00:17.090 --> 01:00:20.030 Ezra who are those people they're our grandparents and our 01:00:20.030 --> 01:00:23.570 grandchildren they're people who care about and now people start to matter 01:00:23.570 --> 01:00:27.740 personal and now they start to care about it here's one that I really like 01:00:27.740 --> 01:00:30.530 if you're talking to some of hero's baseball 01:00:30.530 --> 01:00:36.320 he's our informant Jared chunka chunka Lady Jane Lubchenco tell me this one she 01:00:36.320 --> 01:00:39.680 was talking to a congressman when she was head of NOAA and there's a hurricane 01:00:39.680 --> 01:00:45.500 and the congressman said can you tell me that hurricane is climate change and she 01:00:45.500 --> 01:00:50.240 said no I can't but think about it this way I know you like baseball so if 01:00:50.240 --> 01:00:54.890 you're a baseball player takes steroids they hit a home run without him one 01:00:54.890 --> 01:00:59.910 caused by the steroids no probably not that mr. clay is batting 01:00:59.910 --> 01:01:04.140 average and home an average spike that here went up higher than all the other 01:01:04.140 --> 01:01:06.570 years before that can you bear in that installer it's that 01:01:06.570 --> 01:01:12.780 probably every climate changes weather on steroids here isn't find a burger 01:01:12.780 --> 01:01:16.410 friend put it in their language that the audience you're talking to can grasp and 01:01:16.410 --> 01:01:20.820 understand and they'll get much further than just hammering in the data and a 01:01:20.820 --> 01:01:24.690 very cataclysmic scenarios are very the day after tomorrow even if it may be 01:01:24.690 --> 01:01:29.430 true swear to give an inundated with water it's still be on the grass with 01:01:29.430 --> 01:01:33.980 many people's imagination and they'll just start to shut it off so use that 01:01:33.980 --> 01:01:38.640 finally to discuss the solutions that come from a message you know so we 01:01:38.640 --> 01:01:42.720 should have a carbon price right well a carbon price is a very intrusive 01:01:42.720 --> 01:01:47.370 government program into all aspects of the economy and if you haven't noticed a 01:01:47.370 --> 01:01:50.460 raging debate in that country right now is about controlling the size of 01:01:50.460 --> 01:01:53.130 government so you've messed up that air month and 01:01:53.130 --> 01:01:56.910 then you may go further and say but you know carbon price should be grow this is 01:01:56.910 --> 01:02:01.350 you at a very low carbon price and Mary really stepped in I am a girl who's been 01:02:01.350 --> 01:02:08.820 do maybe the UN so I would move in twenty one world government certainly a 01:02:08.820 --> 01:02:12.960 raging debate in this country is about the OD ISM versus nationalism and so 01:02:12.960 --> 01:02:17.430 this plays into it in a very powerful way so what do you do well first of all 01:02:17.430 --> 01:02:21.360 Nubia and the negative don't try and scare people there is an 01:02:21.360 --> 01:02:24.540 essay that came I remember years ago got the death of environmentalism and they 01:02:24.540 --> 01:02:27.660 took a crack at the environment and even saying they always focus on the negative 01:02:27.660 --> 01:02:31.440 the trans scared people away from the negative and it doesn't work people 01:02:31.440 --> 01:02:36.660 motivate a better positive destroy of aspirational goals and they make the 01:02:36.660 --> 01:02:39.660 point in a very clever way you say when the most inspirational speeches of that 01:02:39.660 --> 01:02:44.490 time was not paid out at a nightmare it was called I have a dream that motivates 01:02:44.490 --> 01:02:50.070 people to act can you envision area bits better with us addressing climate change 01:02:50.070 --> 01:02:55.950 I can with the shifts in our culture economy shifts and mobility autonomous 01:02:55.950 --> 01:03:01.670 driving I can figure the whole host of ways walkable cities New Urbanism a 01:03:01.670 --> 01:03:06.430 whole host of ways where a world in which were addressing climate change 01:03:06.430 --> 01:03:12.430 can be better and connected American ingenuity and competitiveness I call ins 01:03:12.430 --> 01:03:15.339 when I hear people's ideas these people believe in climate change they're so 01:03:15.339 --> 01:03:19.720 that posture pessimistic about the economy now I'm optimistic I'm 01:03:19.720 --> 01:03:24.579 optimistic that we can solve this problem I am optimistic that we have the 01:03:24.579 --> 01:03:31.210 ability to sadness get that message out I believe in American ingenuity and we 01:03:31.210 --> 01:03:35.890 can tackle climate change and now you get something so this is what's on the 01:03:35.890 --> 01:03:39.430 table hmmm in your data you're not talking to 01:03:39.430 --> 01:03:43.809 all if you could find a way through overcoming any one of these forms of 01:03:43.809 --> 01:03:48.869 distrust you look much more headrail in the conversation there's I just told you 01:03:48.869 --> 01:03:54.119 now I'm going to tell you and I'll tell you I'm gonna wrap it up for the story 01:03:54.119 --> 01:04:06.970 so any money dynamics I'm sure you've never heard of it much less read it and 01:04:06.970 --> 01:04:12.250 it has a pay rise and I wouldn't recommend buying it it's a very 01:04:12.250 --> 01:04:15.819 theoretical paper just trying to lay the foundation but then literature and 01:04:15.819 --> 01:04:20.500 culture institutions connecting a climate change but I had two paragraphs 01:04:20.500 --> 01:04:24.339 they two analogies in a race Wars but I left a minute 01:04:24.339 --> 01:04:28.210 the first one is cigarettes in human health now I'll tell you about that the 01:04:28.210 --> 01:04:32.530 culture shift the change we had to go through to come to a social fact let's 01:04:32.530 --> 01:04:35.589 see this guy's cancer there's a couple of other entry points about that story 01:04:35.589 --> 01:04:38.950 one is a lot of people say you can't do in a climate change into it and the 01:04:38.950 --> 01:04:43.750 proverbial smoking done definitive proof that this is happening hey it's never 01:04:43.750 --> 01:04:46.990 going to happen because in the proper experiment we need a control with 01:04:46.990 --> 01:04:52.829 another planet earth that's not going to be available to us on cigarettes I 01:04:52.829 --> 01:04:58.230 cannot prove to you if they will cause cancer I could do an experiment I 01:04:58.230 --> 01:05:03.520 couldn't that I could try and get on you stop smoking some of you get cancer some 01:05:03.520 --> 01:05:07.960 of you are the Surgeon General's report the first came and said cigarettes cause 01:05:07.960 --> 01:05:12.430 cancer said epidemiologic a we can show you how it can happen statistically we 01:05:12.430 --> 01:05:15.660 can to happen a quote unquote in the end 01:05:15.660 --> 01:05:20.130 it's a matter of judgment and yet we have a social consensus that cigarettes 01:05:20.130 --> 01:05:23.880 cause cancer and their link between second-hand smoking cigarettes and 01:05:23.880 --> 01:05:28.200 cancer is even more tenuous and yet we are smoking bans and restaurants we can 01:05:28.200 --> 01:05:31.050 come to a social consensus without the proverbial smoking gun 01:05:31.050 --> 01:05:35.819 so lay that out there then I said how big is a culture change on climate 01:05:35.819 --> 01:05:42.300 change and I said it's as big as your address or slavery now caveat so unfair 01:05:42.300 --> 01:05:45.630 comparisons the wanton cruelty of one race against another they were 01:05:45.630 --> 01:05:50.520 problematic on this issue but there are some interesting parallels in area when 01:05:50.520 --> 01:05:54.569 addresses students frequently remnants of the uh Tobias lady people said yeah 01:05:54.569 --> 01:06:00.030 man you know the economy is based on it that was true and today people are 01:06:00.030 --> 01:06:06.210 sitting on the street cones are won in New York and said you have to best 01:06:06.210 --> 01:06:09.180 pacifism people say you're out of your mind you can learn quality that the 01:06:09.180 --> 01:06:13.200 attack on is based on it there are powerful economic interests that stood 01:06:13.200 --> 01:06:17.010 to lose by abortion slavery and yet we did it and then it is done through 01:06:17.010 --> 01:06:21.990 peaceful means the United States has done through a violent war that we did 01:06:21.990 --> 01:06:28.079 it in the time of slavery many did not see a math problem uh that there's a 01:06:28.079 --> 01:06:31.349 really great book called bear the chains about the audition movement and invent 01:06:31.349 --> 01:06:35.730 and there's a scene in it that just just riveted me where he's describing a slave 01:06:35.730 --> 01:06:40.470 ship coming from Africa people down below shame against their real sense it 01:06:40.470 --> 01:06:46.530 some day some of them dead terrified what's going on on deck the captain is 01:06:46.530 --> 01:06:51.000 giving better lessons to his crew and no one's saying a problem with it his back 01:06:51.000 --> 01:06:55.140 their slaves in the Bible this is part of the mail order and now we look at the 01:06:55.140 --> 01:07:00.990 idea of slavery devotion can you imagine a day when even you're mainly look at 01:07:00.990 --> 01:07:05.819 the emission of co2 or greenhouse gases with even there are no more overtones we 01:07:05.819 --> 01:07:10.859 look at slavery I bet you can't and that's how big the culture shift is 01:07:10.859 --> 01:07:14.880 before us my mowing my lawn and a matter Michigan has import for the people of 01:07:14.880 --> 01:07:19.200 low-lying there is a man there bitch are you ready for a more cold like that I 01:07:19.200 --> 01:07:24.130 don't think so but that's how big the challenges before us so I read the paper 01:07:24.130 --> 01:07:29.770 and then to some scale Journal and then the New York Times family edition 01:07:29.770 --> 01:07:33.760 argument and they wrote about it and then Time magazine picked it up 01:07:33.760 --> 01:07:37.990 scientific America rep and I'm getting excited you know a context where people 01:07:37.990 --> 01:07:43.900 actually really give me kinda buzz that I was new to this debate and a friend 01:07:43.900 --> 01:07:46.810 emailed me and said I see Marc Morano has taken this hiss at you and I said 01:07:46.810 --> 01:07:50.470 who's Matt Morano instead he used to work for Western values work for James 01:07:50.470 --> 01:07:54.580 Inhofe and now as a webpage climate depot about comma I will think you 01:07:54.580 --> 01:07:59.080 better go look at it so good and this is what I found and here's my picture on 01:07:59.080 --> 01:08:05.050 the lower right picture on the lower left and here's the cottage in the 01:08:05.050 --> 01:08:08.470 arable climate skeptics or the moral equivalent of days of defended slavery 01:08:08.470 --> 01:08:14.140 and there's my email address and so the emails start coming in and they're not 01:08:14.140 --> 01:08:20.109 nice I have a favor for hey Mel and mine is Tim if you want to see nasty 01:08:20.109 --> 01:08:24.730 stuff Katherine here at Texas Tech really office stuff our treasure days 01:08:24.730 --> 01:08:27.850 and they typically go after people and more aggressive fashion if they think 01:08:27.850 --> 01:08:33.070 available women get it more than men minority women get it more so that's 01:08:33.070 --> 01:08:36.670 better again so it's better coming in and I stand and I was really struggling 01:08:36.670 --> 01:08:39.820 what to do it and it's an important lesson if you do engage in the public 01:08:39.820 --> 01:08:43.480 today if you're saying something important you're going to tip people off 01:08:43.480 --> 01:08:47.680 and you have to learn that that wasn't ready for it and a friend of mine gave 01:08:47.680 --> 01:08:53.380 me a quote you come down and listen Church 11 to verify but is a very poor I 01:08:53.380 --> 01:08:58.020 commend it to you if you're not offending anyone you never took a stand 01:08:58.020 --> 01:09:02.740 you write your paper you do your editorial if there's silence crickets 01:09:02.740 --> 01:09:05.770 coming back trust me you didn't say any impairment if people that have said 01:09:05.770 --> 01:09:08.170 you're challenging how they think and behave 01:09:08.170 --> 01:09:13.210 I found a net it goes from Paul Newman the actor said if you don't have enemies 01:09:13.210 --> 01:09:17.350 you don't have character I like that quote although I've stopped there people 01:09:17.350 --> 01:09:20.290 have enemies that deserve them but if you have character you will have enemies 01:09:20.290 --> 01:09:24.410 I heard my just like a month ago a friend of mine said 01:09:24.410 --> 01:09:29.800 repeat that please and he goes you ain't get shout out if you're over the target 01:09:29.800 --> 01:09:34.010 so if you go into the public debate this is new for academic so you can emanate a 01:09:34.010 --> 01:09:37.070 public debate you just put a day's on your chest and 01:09:37.070 --> 01:09:39.920 you're going to get shot at get ready for it 01:09:39.920 --> 01:09:44.060 thicken your skin it's a different game than the seminar room which can both be 01:09:44.060 --> 01:09:49.730 quite nasty so this definitely willing to do anything on a social scientists 01:09:49.730 --> 01:09:59.450 are cold them and satify fancy science on a criminal a suit to his plan treaty 01:09:59.450 --> 01:10:07.490 and mel and si tu savais just arrived you self-appointed overseers expect 01:10:07.490 --> 01:10:11.660 aspirins will take you and your fellow scientists seriously your scientist I 01:10:11.660 --> 01:10:17.330 don't trust you that's a play here they discussed my idea I'm doing a rep for 01:10:17.330 --> 01:10:22.460 sailing on a green Terrace I must be a secular evolutionist if I 01:10:22.460 --> 01:10:25.550 didn't climate change and must not believe in God I must believe in 01:10:25.550 --> 01:10:29.930 evolution you are not part of my tribe you are a different tribe that's what's 01:10:29.930 --> 01:10:33.470 happening here I'm trying to raise to dismiss we live in a time right now 01:10:33.470 --> 01:10:37.850 where people don't debate your ideas the question of motives think about that 01:10:37.850 --> 01:10:43.370 okay third they distrusted impact the I BR the first United States and they were 01:10:43.370 --> 01:10:46.880 sitting reading didn't pursue your fantasies where did you develop the real 01:10:46.880 --> 01:10:51.740 to push us backwards greetings comrade Radu at Marxist destruction of 01:10:51.740 --> 01:10:55.310 civilization and must be one of those we Ottomans I must be one of those being 01:10:55.310 --> 01:11:00.740 terrorists now I just want to conclude on this point why would people send 01:11:00.740 --> 01:11:05.750 emails like this to summon a demo over scientific issue it's because for them 01:11:05.750 --> 01:11:10.100 it is not a scientific issue for them they are defending values that they 01:11:10.100 --> 01:11:14.480 heard deal that they feel are threatened by an existence acceptance of climate 01:11:14.480 --> 01:11:17.780 change thank you very much 01:11:17.780 --> 01:11:19.840 you