Typhoon Phanfone May Hit Tokyo This WeekendTyphoon Phanfone May Hit Tokyo This Weekend
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Typhoon Phanfone May Hit Tokyo This Weekend


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Typhoon Phanfone, seen as the swirl of winds in the center of the image.Image:  earth.nullschool.net
By Andrew Freedman2014-10-02 21:31:01 UTC


After being struck by two typhoons so far this season, residents of Japan are girding themselves for yet another powerful storm this weekend. This one, Typhoon Phanfone, is spinning its way northwestward across the western Pacific Ocean, packing maximum sustained winds of 125 miles per hour as of Thursday at 3 p.m. ET. 
It is forecast to intensify significantly, possibly into a super typhoon, with sustained winds of 150 miles per hour or greater, before expanding in size and weakening in strength as it veers northeast to either directly strike Japan on Sunday into Monday, or pass just offshore. Either way, it will have a major influence on Japan's weather, and may actually serve to alter the weather pattern across North America several days later.
See also: Intensifying Typhoon Phanfone Heads for Japan
The biggest threats from the storm are inland flooding from heavy rains and a potentially damaging storm surge, particularly across eastern Shikoku and south-central and southeastern Honshu. This region includes the city of Tokyo, which is home to roughly 13 million people. Eight or more inches of rain may fall, and the flood threat is elevated because this comes on the heels of a heavy rain event that took place in late September. 
Depending on the storm's exact track, it may affect the highly urbanized corridor that includes the cities of Kyoto, Kobe, Osaka, Nagoya and Tokyo. 

Computer model projection from the ECMWF model of Typhoon Phanfone striking Japan on Sunday Oct. 5.Image:  WeatherBell AnalyticsThe storm may also disrupt search and recovery operations at Mount Ontake, the volcano that erupted without warning on Saturday, killing at least 47 people. Debris flows of rain, mud and ash are possible if heavy rain falls there. 
While strong winds and heavy rains are likely throughout Japan, depending on the storm's track, the areas most at risk for seeing typhoon-strength winds of greater than 74 miles per hour are the southeastern parts of Shikoku and Honshu. 

Typhoon Phanfone track forecast from the Japanese Meteorological Agency.Image:  JMAAs the storm moves through or just off the coast of Japan, it will go through the process of losing its tropical characteristics, taking on the identity of what is known as a powerful "extratropical low," which is a fancy way of saying a strong, non-tropical storm system. After its encounter with Japan, It is forecast to travel across the North Pacific and impact Alaska as an intense storm next week. Depending on how it interacts with the jet stream across North America, it could redirect the path of weather systems far downstream, too, since Pacific typhoons are known to help form waves or kinks in the jet stream beyond the Pacific. 
Here is how the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, run by the U.S. Navy and Air Force, describes the forecast transition, noting that it will result in a storm with a broader wind field:
THE TRANSITION INTO A STRONG  EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR RATHER RAPIDLY AS THE CYCLONE  PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF HONSHU. AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD, INCLUDING GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS, IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES THIS TRANSITION.
The typhoon may become the third storm to hit Japan so far this year, following Typhoons Neoguri and Halong.
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Topics:
Climate, hurricane, japan, tokyo, typhoon, typhoon Phanfone, US & World, World













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