Super Typhoon Hagupit nears Philippines, threatens devastating rainfall and flooding - The Washington PostSuper Typhoon Hagupit nears Philippines, threatens devastating rainfall and flooding - The Washington Post                  Sign In Username PostTV Politics Opinions Local Sports National World Business Tech Lifestyle Entertainment Classifieds Jobs Real Estate Events Rentals Cars WP BrandConnect Subscribe Newsletters & Alerts    washingtonpost.com © 1996-2015 The Washington Post  Help and Contact Us Terms of Service Privacy Policy Submissions and Discussion Policy RSS Terms of Service Ad Choices       Sections    The Washington Post    Super Typhoon Hagupit nears Philippines, threatens devastating rainfall and flooding       Sign In  Username   Subscribe                        Capital Weather Gang Super Typhoon Hagupit nears Philippines, threatens devastating rainfall and flooding           Share on Facebook  Share on Whatsapp  Share on Twitter  Share on Google Plus  Share via Email  More Options       Share via Email  Share on Twitter  Share on Pinterest  Share on Google Plus  Share on LinkedIn  Share on Tumblr          Resize Text Print Article  Comments             By Angela Fritz December 5, 2014  Follow @angelafritz      Infrared satellite image of Super Typhoon Hagupit on Friday morning. (NOAA)  Update at 4:30 p.m.: The most recent track forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has shifted just slightly south, but is mostly in agreement with earlier forecasts, predicting Typhoon Hagupit to make initial landfall in northern Samar. From there, the center forecasts the typhoon to decrease in intensity as it travels northwest through the islands of the Philippines, reaching Manila on Sunday.    (JTWC)  Original post: Uncertainty remains as to exactly where Super Typhoon Hagupit will make landfall in the Philippines this weekend. However, what is known for sure — and what millions of Filipinos are preparing for — is that the dangerous typhoon will lash the island nation with extreme winds and torrential, flooding rain for days. Super Typhoon Hagupit, which is closing in on the Philippines island of Samar, remains a dangerous storm on Friday, with sustained winds of 150 mph, and gusts up to 185 mph, the equivalent of a category 4 huricane. The typhoon underwent a period of re-intensification on Thursday night, called an eye wall replacement cycle, and has since regained its “super typhoon” status on Friday morning.    Disaster management teams are preparing for the worst ahead of Typhoon Hagupit. It is expected to make landfall in the Philippines over the weekend. (Reuters)   Hagupit’s winds likely won’t be the most devastating impact of the typhoon as it roars ashore on Saturday. On Friday morning, the storm was only moving forward at seven miles per hour — a crawl that will prolong the duration of its most serious and widespread impact: torrential, flooding rain. “The process is expected to be agonizingly slow, ” writes the The Weather Channel, “potentially taking 48-72 hours to move from the eastern Philippines to Metro Manila.”    Satellite-derived rainfall in millimeters. (Univ. of Wisconsin)  Satellite-derived estimates suggest that the Philippines — and the island of Samar in particular — will see rainfall rates peak in excess of two inches per hour. Hagupit’s outer rain bands have already reached the islands, where it will continue to rain through early next week as the typhoon slowly tracks west. Given the storm’s slow forward speed, the high rainfall rates will likely lead to extreme rainfall totals. Forecast models suggest final accumulation could exceed an astonishing two feet in some locations, making landslides and life-threatening flash floods likely, especially in the high terrain where rainfall rates will be the largest. Coastal Samar will take the brunt of the storm’s wind and surge. Officials in the Philippines are warning of a storm surge up to 12 feet.    Rainfall forecast estimate for Super Typhoon Haguput. (The Weather Channel)  Over the past few days, forecast tracks have become dire for the island of Samar, which is still recovering from Typhoon Haiyan of 2013. Both the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Philippines weather service are forecasting a track that brings the typhoon ashore close to the still-devastated city of Tacloban.    Forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which is forecasting a landfall location farther north than the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Philippines weather agency. (JTWC)  Whether or not Tacloban sees Hagupit’s strongest winds will rely strongly on the exact track of the storm. The strongest winds in the typhoon will be on the north side of the eye, so a track just south of the city will put it at largest risk. A track to the north would spare the area of the most lashing wind speeds, though the typhoon’s flooding rainfall will be extremely dangerous in any situation. Super Typhoon Hagupit comes just one year after deadly Typhoon Haiyan made landfall in the Philippines with sustained winds up to an incredible 195 mph. Tacloban itself felt the worst impacts of the storm, being just north of the eye. Haiyan is the deadliest typhoon on record for the country, having killed at least 6,000 people.    Typhoon Hagupit, locally known as Ruby, was closing in on the Philippines from the Pacific Ocean on Friday. It is expected to touch down on Saturday as a Category 4 storm. (The Washington Post)   Angela Fritz is an atmospheric scientist and The Post's deputy weather editor.        Share on FacebookShare   Share on TwitterTweet          Comments                   Show Comments      Discussion Policy    Comments       SuperFan Badge SuperFan badge holders consistently post smart, timely comments about Washington area sports and teams. 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