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Typhoon 


 
 






Super Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) Rapidly Intensifies, Threatens the Philippines, Including Tacloban







By Jon Erdman 


   Published Dec 4 2014 12:00 PM EST 


weather.com 



 





















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You have reached a previous version of our forecast article. Please click here for our current Super Typhoon Hagupit forecast.Super Typhoon Hagupit has become a potentially catastrophic tropical cyclone in the tropical western Pacific Ocean after undergoing a period of explosive and rapid intensification. Uncertainty remains high in its future track, but there is increasing concern that the super typhoon could eventually strike the Philippines – where it has been named Ruby – with devastating force.(MORE: Hurricane Central | 2014 Hurricane Season Recap)




















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At 4 a.m. EST Thursday, the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated Hagupit's maximum sustained 1-minute wind speed at 180 mph, putting it in a tie with Super Typhoons Vongfong and Nuri in October as the most powerful typhoon of 2014. Hagupit is now the equivalent of a high-end Category 5 hurricane.The Japan Meteorological Agency has declared Hagupit a "violent" typhoon, the highest classification on its scale, with 10-minute sustained winds of 130 mph.Hagupit made its closest approach to the Yap Islands Wednesday evening, local time (15 hours ahead of U.S. EST), passing about 60 miles to the south of the islands. Given its relatively small wind field at that time, only tropical storm-force wind gusts (peak gust to 43 mph) were recorded at Yap International Airport as of late Wednesday evening.Hagupit began to undergo a period of rapid intensification late Wednesday morning (U.S. East Coast time). According to the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Hagupit became a super typhoon as of 2 p.m. EST Wednesday when its maximum sustained winds reached 150 mph -- a sharp increase from 115 mph just six hours earlier. Hagupit is the seventh Western Pacific cyclone to reach super typhoon status in 2014.The rapid intensification is the result of impressive upper-level "outflow channels," basically air flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere spreading apart, or away from, the center of Hagupit. Those outflow channels near the top of the typhoon force air to rise more vigorously within its core circulation, allowing the central pressure to plummet and the typhoon's winds to increase.




















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The center passed north of the Republic of Palau Thursday morning, local time (Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainland U.S. time).Closest to the center of Hagupit was Kayangel, a cluster of three atolls making up the northernmost state of Palau. It is not immediately clear how intense Hagupit's winds were there. Winds peaked at only 21 mph to the south in Koror, the more heavily populated state of the republic.Typhoon and tropical storm warnings have been discontinued for Yap and Palau.Philippines Threat?Hagupit will begin to slow its forward speed later Thursday. Hagupit is expected to maintain super typhoon status (150 mph winds or higher), and is likely to remain the equivalent of a Category 5 storm.Given its more southern path compared to most other typhoons so far this year, a continued west-northwest track would place the central Philippines in the threat zone, including areas still recovering from Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) about 13 months ago, the most intense tropical cyclone at landfall in history.(MORE: On the Ground After Typhoon Haiyan)




















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That is certainly worrisome. However, it remains too early to call with certainty whether Hagupit will even directly affect the Philippines at all.There appear to be two track scenarios, representing the extreme difference in potential impacts at this time.1) Little impact: Hagupit stalls just east of the Philippines late this week, then drifts slowly north into early next week. Increasing wind shear, thanks to a surge of cooler, drier near-surface north to northeast winds from the Asian continent and the southern fringe of the jet stream would quickly weaken the cyclone. In this scenario, Hagupit may have little direct impact in the Philippines, except for localized flash flooding from outer rainbands and high surf along the east coast of the archipelago.2) Severe impact: Hagupit slows down, but continues its west-northwest track into the Philippines, potentially still as a formidable typhoon this weekend. Impacts including significant coastal flooding due to storm surge and battering waves, as well as destructive winds could be felt in some Haiyan-affected areas. In addition, if Hagupit moves slowly, torrential rainfall would become a major threat, with life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides possible. Of course, some combination of both scenarios could also occur, with Hagupit first making landfall, but then also drifting slowly north and weakening. As of Thursday morning, scenario 1 is becoming somewhat less likely. Computer models previously predicting that scenario are still showing a northward turn, but much closer to the Philippines, resulting in more significant wind and rain on land.(FORECAST: Tacloban | Manila)Hagupit moved into the waters east of the Philippines early Thursday local time, prompting that country's weather agency (PAGASA) to give it the name Ruby. The Philippines has its own alphabetical list of names, separate from the international list, for tropical cyclones passing near or over its territory.Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest on Super Typhoon Hagupit and its potential impacts.MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Super Typhoon Haiyan - Aerial Photographs (Nov. 2013)

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