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						Super Typhoon Hagupit / Ruby Friday AM Update, Landfall Likely in Samar		 
				Posted on 
December 5, 2014
 by 
Robert Speta

 
				Posted in Uncategorized 
 




We are now starting to get in to the final hours in regards to Typhoon Hagupit where we talk less about the forecast and more about the actual impacts from this storm as it starts to come ashore Saturday afternoon through the evening hours and then begins on its slow track west across the Philippines bringing flooding rains along its way.
 
IR / VIS
Over the past few days we have stated there is still some debate on exact landfall. It seems central and northern Samar will be where landfall will take place pending any unexpected or unforeseen changes in the synoptic dynamics.
 
 
With that said this is still a dangerous storm system.
This Catholic church in Tacloban City has turned into an evacuation center. pic.twitter.com/FMr0L9rORs
— sandra aguinaldo (@sandraguinaldo) December 4, 2014


 
At this time the worst hit areas based on the forecast Friday AM will likely be Oras, Dolores and Borongon City. These areas could see a storm surge up to 3-4 meters high along with winds gusting near 300kph.
 
Residents here should take immediate action not only to reduce damage but also mitigate the loss of life. Please check this link to view some of the areas most prone to storm surge via Project NOAH.
 
PAGASA TRACK FCST AS OF 10AM PST FRIDAY
Based on the most recent track people in Tacloban should miss out on the worst of the storm surge since they will likely be on the southern periphery of the storms. Here wind damage could still be severe especially for temporary homes and shelters built just after Typhoon Haiyan one year ago.
 
The current forecast from JMA shows the storm more on a Westerly track while JTWC and PAGASA take it slightly WNW through southern Luzon and Northern Visayas. After the storm moves inland the track once again starts to become uncertain as land interaction and the cold surge to the north continue to play in with the forecast.
 
What we can say though is southern Luzon and even as far north as Legazpi could see a storm surge threat as well as coastal areas farther inland in Visayas.
 
IF YOU ARE BEING WARNING ON FOLLOW ALL WARNINGS AND EVACUATIONS FROM PAGASA.
 
The big threat will be heavy rainfall from this storm. It will be moving at a very slow pace across the Philippines thus bringing heavy showers over an extended period of time.  The heaviest rainfall will likely be in Samar where over 500mm could occur but farther inland the flood and landslide threat is still very real.
 
The images below is the total rainfall based on the ECMWF Model.
Total Rainfall Image Via Weather Bell
 
Those in Manila could still be impacted by tropical storm strength winds but nothing compared to what residents of the east coast will see. Manila might have enough to blow thing around but the big threat here will be rainfall and flooding as well.
 
Already evacuations are underway and people are getting ready to head to shelters across parts of Samar and Leyte. The Mayor of Tacloban stated “Definitely we will now strictly enforce forced evacuation,” in a press release Wednesday. “We have no more excuse, we have gone through Yolanda, and to lose that many lives, it’s beyond our conscience already,” he said, referring to typhoon Haiyan which left more than 7,000 dead or missing in November last year.
Below is the Twitter account from WESTPACWX team member and owner of earthuncut.tv James Reynolds, follow him to get some of the latest information and reports from inside the storm.
Tweets by @EarthUncutTV

Below are some useful “Stay Alive” tips if you wanna ride out a Typhoon:
 
1. Pruning of large and tall trees will make you safe from damage, reinforce vulnerable ones to the ground if necessary. Keep them away from power lines;
 
2. Make sure roofing are sturdy to withstand powerful wind and rain. Ensure doors and windows are water tight;
 
3. Clear your property from potentially dangerous debris becoming airborne during high wind;
 
4. Free water ways from debris to avoid backing up flood waters towards river estuaries in case of torrential rains associated with the system;
 
5. Stay clear from the immediate coasts and low-lying areas to avoid being caught up by raging waters. Watchout for landslips if you live near steep elevations;
 
6. Secure food stocks, adequate potable water supply and medications. Do not forget to safely shelter dogs and other beloved animal companion indoor. Be humane enough. You don’t wanna keep them cold outside in a storm;
 
7. Keep emergency numbers at hand and orient family members what to do before, during and after the storm. Charge handheld radios, cellular phones and extra battery before electricity is cut from the grid;
 
8. Listen to emergency broadcast via battery-powered portable radio. Lights would definitely go out during the storm, so you wanna make sure you got emergency lights and torch lights in handy;
 
9. Keep calm and pray for the Typhoon to come to past safely in your vicinity. We’ll ride out the storm safely.











						  « Monster super typhoon HAGUPIT spins east of Philippines. Outlook becoming clearer. 

Find A Shelter in Your Area, Typhoon Hagupit Interactive Map »						







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