Haiyan – harbinger of things to come? | John Vidal | Global development | The GuardianHaiyan – harbinger of things to come? | John Vidal | Global development | The Guardian










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Environmental sustainability



Haiyan – harbinger of things to come?









Lives lost, villages destroyed, communities devastated – and according to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, the Philippines disaster was just the beginning














Devastation in Leyte as survivors queue for relief goods after typhoon Haiyan. The IPCC fears such scenes will be repeated globally. Photograph: Dondi Tawatao/Getty Dondi Tawatao/Getty Images






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John Vidal in Butuan, Mindanao


Monday 31 March 2014 02.00 EDT







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When tropical depression Agaton swept in to the Philippines from the Pacific on 13 January, the rain gauge in Jabonga's new weather station could barely cope: more than 25 inches (635mm) fell in five days, and 47 inches over the course of that month. One in three people in the 24,000-strong community on the island of Mindanao had their homes flooded, and 2,800 had to be evacuated after three whole villages were completely submerged. Newly planted rice and vegetable crops were ruined, and the community is only just beginning to recover.
Torrential rain and flash floods are not unusual in Jabonga, which lies in the lee of a mountain range, but this was January and Agaton dropped three times as much rain as normal across a wide area, killing 37 people in floods and mudslides. No one had ever seen such heavy rain before, even when super-typhoon Haiyan, known locally as Yolanda, hit the south of Mindanao in November, devastating a large area and causing up to $36bn (£21.6bn) of damage.
Agaton was the last and most serious of a procession of unusually heavy and oddly timed rains, said the village farmers when they met last week to assess their situation and compare notes. "It rains more heavily now and it leads to more and deeper floods," said Areneta Lampitao. "The rain comes at different times and our farms get damaged more. You used to be able to predict the weather but not now. Now it floods whenever there is low pressure."
Agaton and Yolanda are a taste of what is to come, says Alicia Ilaga, the government's head of climate change at the department of agriculture. "We are totally convinced that climate change is happening. Temperatures are rising everywhere. The IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] suggests there will be even more aggressive Yolandas and our farming will be devastated unless we adapt," she says.
Her analysis echoes that of the world's climate scientists, who on Monday publish the fifth assessment report on the impacts of global warming. Drawn from thousands of studies and models conducted over the past seven years, it warns of a 3-4C rise in temperatures over the next 80 years, crop yields falling up to 25%, water shortages, floods, droughts and worldwide food insecurity.
The changes will take place over a century, says the study, with crop yields possibly dropping 2% a decade even as demand from a rapidly growing global population increases by 14% a decade. Crops that are highly sensitive to temperature changes, such as rice, wheat and maize, may fare worst. It will be possible to grow new crops in northern latitudes, but farming in the tropics and sub-tropics, in places such as the Philippines, will be hit hardest, with the poorest people suffering the most because they must spend so much more of their income on food.
Regionally, says the IPCC, the vast Asian rice crop, which feeds nearly half the world's population, will suffer badly as dry seasons become longer, nights get hotter, and rainfall patterns become increasingly erratic. Winter wheat yields could increase in some areas because of warmer night-time temperatures and higher rain fall, but sea-level rise threatens coastal and deltaic rice production in places such as Bangladesh, Burma and the Mekong Delta. In addition, fishing in tropical and subtropical zones will be devastated as ocean temperatures increase and corals are damaged.
"Adapting to climate change is now the number one priority of government," says Ilaga. "Sixty to 70% of our economy is based on farming. We need to be able to predict much better, plan better and understand our vulnerability. We need to know which areas are most at risk, community by community. Yolanda has been an early warning and the IPCC tells us how hard it will be. What we have learned is that all our increases in production can be lost in one storm. It makes me very frightened."
Mapping areas at risk
Under Ilaga's instruction, every community in the Philippines has now been asked to draw up maps of the exact areas most at risk of flooding, landslides, coastal erosion, droughts and storm surges. "What we see when we overlay the maps of vulnerability with the those of poverty is that the poorest people live in the marginal, most vulnerable areas. They are vulnerable because they do not have the resources to adapt," she says.
Back in Jabonga, the farmers and fishermen agree that the community must change the way it farms. "We need to diversify incomes. We need more and better seeds. We need flood-resistant seeds," said Patrocenio Jarina, part of a group that has had a week's training at a "climate resilience" field school, organised by Oxfam and its partner, the Mindanao Agri-Aqua Development Coalition (AADC) from Agusan del Norte.
"We can't rely any more on a single crop. The soil is not so fertile now because we are using more and more herbicides. We must plant crops that are more suitable for this climate," said Jasmin Monton, mayor of Jabonga.
Others in the community said they needed better forecasting of weather and insurance against crop losses. There were also calls for a possible return to traditional seeds, which, while lower-yielding, were still being grown in the Jabonga uplands and were better adapted to floods and storms.
The community has no resources, however, and most people are relying on handouts to buy food after Agatan.
The collective experience was that crops grown organically were not only stronger and more able to withstand flooding and damage from storms, but also cheaper to grow and more profitable.
"For three years now I have practised organic farming without using synthetic chemicals," said Jimmy Dejolde, one of the village farmers. "I produce much more now than I did. Organic farming can help restore the environment and plants are better able to withstand the floods and the storms because roots are stronger … I have fewer pests and my crops survive better than other people's."
In addition, many of the farmers are learning to grow rice using a method of growing crops called system of rice (or root) intensification (SRI). This involves giving the roots more room to grow and requires less water. In many areas where it has been tried, yields have been shown to increase 30-50%.
"The aim must be to reduce farmers' costs, increase their yields, and improve their resilience," says Dante Dalabajan, Oxfam Mindanao programme co-ordinator. "Diversifying crops, spreading risks and farming better all make complete sense. It's possible to promote growth as well as resilience at the same time. It's possible not just to bounce back from disasters like Agaton but to bounce forward. But it means investing in communties, not just infrastructure."



Topics



Environmental sustainability




Climate change




Hunger




Typhoon Haiyan




Natural disasters and extreme weather



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Sustainable development




Philippines








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