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						Typhoon Hagupit / Ruby Crosses Northern Visayas Sunday Evening		 
				Posted on 
December 7, 2014
 by 
Robert Speta

 
				Posted in Uncategorized 
 




Typhoon Hagupit continues to track west over Batanes island today bringing damaging winds and heavy rainfall.  Winds in the storm’s center according to PAGASA are 140G170KPH. At this time we have not seen damage on par with the devastation of Haiyan just over a year ago.
You can view the latest satellite imagery of where the storm is now here. 
A report from ABS-CBN News’ Nony Basco said a 65-year-old man from Estancia and a one-year-old boy in Balasan both died due to hypothermia. The two died in evacuation centers. These are the only two official reports of casualties we have seen at this time. Remember though this storm is on going and communications are still down in many areas that were worst impacted.

More than 1 million people had fled to temporary shelters away from coastal areas and landslide-prone villages.  Local officials said that widespread flooding and debris blocking access to roads would make reaching affected areas difficult in the immediate aftermath.
Repairs of power lines damaged might also take longer than usual because an aerial assessment of the overall damage is impossible at the moment, the energy department said on Sunday. Local radio said there were at least two dead from Eastern Samar but officials could not confirm the report. The Philippine Red Cross said they were validating the report.
Now as the storm tracks west areas across the western Philippines are preparing. In Manila all schools all levels were told to close for monday as well as many governmental business.
Below is the latest forecast plus a map showing what areas are under signal force warnings from PAGASA.
 
Use the map to view the last or current Tropical System,  click on icons to view current weather and 5 day forecast and switch between various agencies and satellite imagery using the options on top.  
Loding Storm Map… Javascript is required to view this one.

 
Below is the ECMWF rainfall accumulation outlook over the next 96hrs.  This image is to demonstrate that the winds and the surge will not be the only threat with this storm, but also the rainfall. Some areas could see well over 500mm resulting in a serious threat of landslides and flooding. Those living in low lying areas or along steep mountain slopes in the storms path are most vulnerable to these threats.
96hr Rainfall via Wxbell
8 am PhST Sunday 24-hour rainfall accumulation (mm).
Reports of heavy rain throughout the region have confirmed what the models have suggested.  Between 8 am Saturday and 8 am Sunday, locations in Samar have reported 300-400 mm of rainfall, to include 395.6 mm in Borongan City and 360.2 mm in Catbalogan City.
 
The storm made landfall in eastern Samar near the city of Oras, home to about 34,000 residents. The storm took a rapid jog west just prior to landfall bringing its time of crossing the shore slightly earlier than anticipated. Jogs in a storms track are common at landfall in mountainous areas due to
Landfall of Hagupit
friction that often occurs when a storm comes ashore.
That jog may have helped PAGASA state they verified in the final outcome of the storm too. There has been a lot of debate prior to landfall in respect to the track of Hagupit due to a ever changing atmosphere around the storm. Westpacwx stated many times prior to landfall that the forecast was subject to wide change and to concentrate more on the cone of error vice the center line.
With different forecast models on typhoon ”Ruby” being released by international meteorological agencies, Filipinos should trust the one coming from its own state weather bureau PAGASA, said Science and Technology Secretary Mario Montejo. (From a ABS CBN Article.)
One thing to mention is that the front of the JTWC PAGE HERE states. “Products on this website are intended for use by U.S. government agencies. Please consult your national meteorological agency or the appropriate World Meteorological Organization Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for tropical cyclone products pertinent to your country, region and/or local area.” They they are not meant for public use. JMA is the RSMC for the western pacific. 

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