Westernpacificweather.com | Typhoon Hagupit / Ruby Landfall In Northern Samar, Saturday Afternoon UpdateWesternpacificweather.com | Typhoon Hagupit / Ruby Landfall In Northern Samar, Saturday Afternoon UpdateWesternpacificweather.com | Typhoon Hagupit / Ruby Landfall In Northern Samar, Saturday Afternoon Update		























































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						Typhoon Hagupit / Ruby Landfall In Northern Samar, Saturday Afternoon Update		 
				Posted on 
December 6, 2014
 by 
Robert Speta

 
				Posted in Uncategorized 
 




Typhoon Hagupit continues to near the coast of Samar this evening bringing winds gusting up to 250kph. The storm has slightly weakened from a super typhoon according to JTWC with JMA now downgrading the storm at “very strong” typhoon. This is a result of a few factors including a increase in vertical wind shear, dry air inflow and land interaction with the coast.
More than half a million people in the Philippines have fled from the powerful typhoon in one of the world’s biggest peacetime evacuations as the storm heads towards the same areas hit by Haiyan 13 month ago.
More than 616,000 residents of low-lying villages and landslide-prone areas have fled to schools, civic centres, town halls, gyms and churches according to the NDRRMC.
A local government official was quoted by Reuters
“We have sufficient food packs for them and the DSWD region 8 has augmented relief distribution. The city government has already started distributing to the big evacuation centres and we are monitoring the other places that were not included in the list and ask them to report here,”

Post by Ken C. Bejar.

If you want to find where a evacuation shelter is in your local area please click here.
There has been some disagreement in the forecast of the storm from various agencies this week, and the reality is there continues to be some disagreement in the forecast track even just hours before the storm is set to make landfall.  The timing ranges as well with JMA expecting landfall around midnight and JTWC not seeing it occur until Sunday morning.
A more important Caveat is that the forecast still could change even more so due to the fact this forecast is some what erratic. So please continue to check in for more updates.  Read on why some agencies forecast different outputs here. 
EITHER WAY the storm will be moving slow near the coast bringing typhoon strength winds over an extended period of time.  Below is a comparison on the point of landfall on the storm. See the interaction map here. 
Track Comparison
Storm surge will be a serious threat to be watched for with this system, as there are several factors involved in making this a potentially devastating effect of the storm. First, there’s the normal storm surge brought on by strong winds piling up the water along shorelines to the north of the path as the storm moves into the archipelago. Also a factor with the timing of this system, will be the current full moon phase, which will further elevate water heights along the shorelines. Another factor is the shape of the landmasses, irregular islands, which will show different surges at different locations as the storm continues to track to the WNW. Keep in mind that my hazard assessment here is dependent on the current JTWC forecast track, and is subject to slight changes as the track may be different.


Another factor to keep in mind is it is currently a full moon leaving tides swinging quite largely and adding to the threat of storm surge.
The graphic below from CNN is rather useful in explaining where the surge threat is.

Below is the ECMWF rainfall accumulation outlook over the next 96hrs.  This image is to demonstrate that the winds and the surge will not be the only threat with this storm, but also the rainfall. Som areas could see well over 500mm resulting in a serious threat of landslides and flooding. Those living in low-lying areas or along steep mountain slopes in the storms path should also be ready for this storm.
96hr rainfall outlook
Haiyan, one of the strongest typhoons ever to make landfall left more than 7,000 dead or missing and more than 4 million homeless or with damaged houses. Watch the video below from icyclone recapping Haiyan one year ago.













						  « STY HAGUPIT (Ruby) ready to attack the Philippines. Landfall expected tomorrow morning. Potential for a storm surge disaster present along southern and western shores. 

Typhoon Hagupit Makes landfall near Oras, Samar »						







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