Westernpacificweather.com | Surge from Hagupit / Ruby starting to impact Samar , Saturday AM UpdateWesternpacificweather.com | Surge from Hagupit / Ruby starting to impact Samar , Saturday AM UpdateWesternpacificweather.com | Surge from Hagupit / Ruby starting to impact Samar , Saturday AM Update		























































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						Surge from Hagupit / Ruby starting to impact Samar , Saturday AM Update		 
				Posted on 
December 5, 2014
 by 
Robert Speta

 
				Posted in Uncategorized 
 




People in Samar and much of Visayas and Southern Luzon are on high alert today just hours before the strongest typhoon of 2014 and largest since Typhoon Haiyan crashes ashore saturday late evening.
Already coastal storm surge is being seen in low-lying coastal areas in Samar demonstrating the intensity of this storm system. The image below was shared to our facebook page showing coastal structures already becoming inundated with a rising surge.
Signal Force Warning 3 is now in effect across the entire island of Samar and given that the storm is still a Violent typhoon it is not hard to forecast that that warning will climb to 4 not only for there but also farther inland to the west.
 



Post by Niel Ballena II.

Local goverments already have forced evacuations in place in this area as well as many residents are taking proper preparations.  About 500,000 people have been told to evacuate according to local officials on Saturday.
GFS Wind Field at Landfall Saturday Late Evening
In Northern Samar Province authorities have used community locations including government and school buildings to accommodate residents, mostly women, children and seniors, evacuated from coastal areas as of Friday evening. You can check where local evacuation shelters are in your area here. 
Areas north of the center of circulation where the winds are blowing on shore could see a storm surge as high as 3-4 meters high in low lying coastal areas.
The current forecast from JMA shows the storm more on a Westerly track while JTWC and PAGASA take it slightly WNW through southern Luzon and Northern Visayas. After the storm moves inland the track once again starts to become uncertain as land interaction and the cold surge to the north continue to play in with the forecast.
Our thoughts at this time are more in line with PAGASA with a landfall likely in Samar near Oras.
Use the map to view the last or current Tropical System,  click on icons to view current weather and 5 day forecast and switch between various agencies and satellite imagery using the options on top.  
Loding Storm Map… Javascript is required to view this one.

What we can say though is southern Luzon and even as far north as Legazpi could see a storm surge threat as well as coastal areas farther inland in Visayas.
Below is the ECMWF rainfall accumulation outlook over the next 96hrs.  This image is to demonstrate that the winds and the surge will not be the only threat with this storm, but also the rainfall. Som areas could see well over 500mm resulting in a serious threat of landslides and flooding. Those living in low lying areas or along steep mountain slopes in the storms path should also be ready for this storm.

*CAVEAT , the track still remains difficult and there could be some changes if the steering flow tends to meander some more. If that does occur we will be sure to notify you.
96hr Rainfall
More than a hundred families from a coastal barangay in Sorsogon evacuate ahead of #RubyPH hit. Next:@stateofdnation pic.twitter.com/JyDctUQ2Y1
— Joseph Morong (@Joseph_Morong) December 5, 2014












						  « Severe Conditions Expected in Southern Luzon and Samar / Typhoon Hagupit , Ruby Friday Afternoon Update 

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