Westernpacificweather.com | STY HAGUPIT (Ruby) ready to attack the Philippines. Landfall expected tomorrow morning. Potential for a storm surge disaster present along southern and western shores.Westernpacificweather.com | STY HAGUPIT (Ruby) ready to attack the Philippines. Landfall expected tomorrow morning. Potential for a storm surge disaster present along southern and western shores.Westernpacificweather.com | STY HAGUPIT (Ruby) ready to attack the Philippines. Landfall expected tomorrow morning. Potential for a storm surge disaster present along southern and western shores.		






















































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						STY HAGUPIT (Ruby) ready to attack the Philippines. Landfall expected tomorrow morning. Potential for a storm surge disaster present along southern and western shores.		 
				Posted on 
December 6, 2014
 by 
Michael Williams

 
				Posted in Tropicals 
 



Super Typhoon HAGUPIT (Ruby) continues to bear down on the Philippines this midday, and is a certain dire threat to anyone in its path.
HAGUPIT continues to track slightly north of due W (280 degrees), according to the JTWC. As of 06/03z (11 am local time), the information on HAGUPIT (Ruby) is as follows:
Position:        12.1N, 127.6E.
Location:       430 nm ESE of Manila, PHL
Movement:    W (280 degrees) at 6 kts. (11kph)
Winds (est.)   130 kts. (241 kph)
Strength:        Category 4, Super Typhoon
HAGUPIT (Ruby) has gained a little more strength overnight and through the morning, and is a monster storm as it approaches the Philippines.
Storm surge will be a serious threat to be watched for with this system, as there are several factors involved in making this a potentially devastating effect of the storm. First, there’s the normal storm surge brought on by strong winds piling up the water along shorelines to the north of the path as the storm moves into the archipelago. Also a factor with the timing of this system, will be the current full moon phase, which will further elevate water heights along the shorelines. Another factor is the shape of the landmasses, irregular islands, which will show different surges at different locations as the storm continues to track to the WNW. Keep in mind that my hazard assessment here is dependent on the current JTWC forecast track, and is subject to slight changes as the track may be different.
In essence, northern portions of Samar Island and the northern shores of the Bicol peninsula will feel the storm surge as the system passes through. After the system passes, the southern shores of the Bicol peninsula will see the surge effects as the winds shift to the SW and S and push the water in. Some communities along the southern and southwestern shores of Luzon could be fooled into thinking storm surge is low as the system approaches their area, due to the strong northerly winds that will be blowing offshore and pushing the water out. However, as the system passes them to the north the surge will come in with a vengeance as winds shift to W and SW, bringing in the water.
The same scenario could threaten the Metro Manila area, and could be a potentially disasterous set of circumstances. As the storm approaches on Monday, N, NE, and E (offshore) winds will push water away from the shoreline in the Metro area, and pile it up along the Bataan peninsula. As the system passes to the south, the storm surge will propagate clockwise around the bay as the winds shift to the SE, S, and SW. Metro area communities may see low tide levels as the storm approcahes and be lulled into a false sense of security.
COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PROVINCES OF THE ISLAND OF LUZON; Metro Manila, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Quezon, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Albay, and Sorsogon, MUST UNDERSTAND THAT THE STORM SURGE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FEW HOURS AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF YOUR LOCATION. The exception is along the northern coasts of the province of Camarines Norte, where the surge will be higher AS the storm makes its approach.
There is also the likelyhood of low-level flooding and storm surge in the Manila de Bay province of Laguna. This surge will start in the S and SW areas of the laguna, and propagate clockwise around the bay as the system passes to the south and brings a shift in the winds from the N, NE, and E, to the W, SW, an S. Communties on the E and SE shores of the laguna will see lower than normal water levels due to strong offshore winds.
All residents of the Philippines should continuously monitor news and your local official agencies for the latest warning information of Super Typhoon HAGUPIT (Ruby).
Courtesy: JTWC, NRL
 
06/03z JTWC (with Google Earth underlay) of Super Typhoon HAGUPIT (Ruby)’s forecast track
06/03z MTSAT visible satellite imagery of STY HAGUPIT











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