Browsing by Author "Borsuk, Mark E."

Now showing 1 - 11 of 11
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    Aligning evidence generation and use across health, development, and environment
    Tallis, Heather; Kreis, Katharine; Olander, Lydia P.; Ringler, Claudia; Ameyaw, David; Borsuk, Mark E.; Fletschner, Diana; Game, Edward; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Jeuland, Marc; Kennedy, Gina; Masuda, Yuta J.; Mehta, Sumi; Miller, Nicholas; Parker, Megan; Pollino, Carmel; Rajaratnam, Julie; Wilkie, David; Zhang, Wei; Ahmed, Selena; Ajayi, Oluyede C.; Alderman, Harold; Arhonditsis, George; Azevedo, Ines; Badola, Ruchi; Bailis, Rob; Balvanera, Patricia; Barbour, Emily; Bardini, Mark; Barton, David N.; Baumgartner, Jill; Benton, Tim G.; Bobrow, Emily; Bossio, Deborah; Bostrom, Ann; Braimoh, Ademola; Brondizio, Eduardo; Brown, Joe; Bryant, Benjamin P.; Calder, Ryan S. D.; Chaplin-Kramer, Becky; Cullen, Alison; DeMello, Nicole; Dickinson, Katherine L.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Eves, Heather E.; Fanzo, Jessica; Ferraro, Paul J.; Fisher, Brendan; Frongillo, Edward A.; Galford, Gillian; Garrity, Dennis; Gatere, Lydiah; Grieshop, Andrew P.; Grigg, Nicola J.; Groves, Craig; Gugerty, Mary Kay; Hamm, Michael; Hou, Xiaoyue; Huang, Cindy; Imhoff, Marc; Jack, Darby; Jones, Andrew D.; Kelsey, Rodd; Kothari, Monica; Kumar, Ritesh; Lachat, Carl; Larsen, Ashley E.; Lawrence, Mark; DeClerck, Fabrice; Levin, Phillip S.; Mabaya, Edward; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald; McDonald, Robert; Mace, Georgina; Maertens, Ricardo; Mangale, Dorothy; Martino, Robin; Mason, Sara A.; Mehta, Lyla; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth; Merz, Barbara; Msangi, Siwa; Murray, Grant; Murray, Kris A.; Naude, Celeste E.; Newlands, Nathaniel K.; Nkonya, Ephraim; Peterman, Amber; Petruney, Tricia; Possingham, Hugh; Puri, Jyotsna; Remans, Roseline; Remlinger, Lisa; Ricketts, Taylor H.; Reta, Bedilu; Robinson, Brian E.; Roe, Dilys; Rosenthal, Joshua; Shen, Guofeng; Shindell, Drew; Stewart-Koster, Ben; Sunderland, Terry; Sutherland, William J.; Tewksbury, Joshua; Wasser, Heather; Wear, Stephanie; Webb, Chris; Whittington, Dale; Wilkerson, Marit; Wittmer, Heidi; Wood, Benjamin DK K.; Wood, Stephen; Wu, Joyce; Yadama, Gautam; Zobrist, Stephanie (Elsevier, 2019-08-01)
    Although health, development, and environment challenges are interconnected, evidence remains fractured across sectors due to methodological and conceptual differences in research and practice. Aligned methods are needed to support Sustainable Development Goal advances and similar agendas. The Bridge Collaborative, an emergent research-practice collaboration, presents principles and recommendations that help harmonize methods for evidence generation and use. Recommendations were generated in the context of designing and evaluating evidence of impact for interventions related to five global challenges (stabilizing the global climate, making food production sustainable, decreasing air pollution and respiratory disease, improving sanitation and water security, and solving hunger and malnutrition) and serve as a starting point for further iteration and testing in a broader set of contexts and disciplines. We adopted six principles and emphasize three methodological recommendations: (1) creation of compatible results chains, (2) consideration of all relevant types of evidence, and (3) evaluation of strength of evidence using a unified rubric. We provide detailed suggestions for how these recommendations can be applied in practice, streamlining efforts to apply multi-objective approaches and/or synthesize evidence in multidisciplinary or transdisciplinary teams. These recommendations advance the necessary process of reconciling existing evidence standards in health, development, and environment, and initiate a common basis for integrated evidence generation and use in research, practice, and policy design.
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    Analysis of environmental and economic impacts of hydropower imports for New York City through 2050
    Calder, Ryan S. D.; Borsuk, Mark E.; Robinson, Celine (Duke University Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, 2020-10-13)
    Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC), a nuclear generating facility that has provided roughly 15 TW·h per year of low-emissions power to the New York City area, will close by 2021. There has been debate over the potential responses to the closure of IPEC which include the development of new generation and transmission infrastructure. This derives in part from difficulties in comparing direct and indirect costs and benefits and environmental and social impacts, which vary substantially across energy alternatives. In particular, the potential role of increased imports of hydropower from Canada to the New York City area has been controversial because of large upfront capital costs and uncertain benefits relative to alternatives such as increased build-out of Downstate New York offshore wind and solar.
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    Assessing Ecosystem Service Benefits from Military Installations
    Kagan, James; Borsuk, Mark E.; Calder, Ryan S. D.; Creutzburg, Megan; Mason, Sara A.; Olander, Lydia P.; Plantinga, Andrew; Robinson, Celine (2019-07-26)
    Military bases provide substantial ecosystem services to local communities and other members of the public. This project conceptualizes and quantifies ecosystem services provided by U.S. military bases developing an integrated modeling platform called MoTIVES (Model-based Tracking and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services). MoTIVES manages probabilistic simulations of biophysical and economic models for relevant ecosystem services provided by alternative base management scenarios, and then assigns values where valuation is possible. The project demonstrated a proof of concept at Eglin Air Force Base, showing that current management provides approximately $110 million in ecosystem services per year, $40 million more than a scenario where no base was present, and $90 million more than a scenario where no base management was occurring.
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    Canadian hydropower and the U.S. energy transition: controversies, opportunities, and strategic research directions
    Calder, Ryan S. D.; Borsuk, Mark E.; Mortazavigazar, Amir; Howarth, Richard B.; Jackson, Chloe; Mavrommati, Georgia (2023-12-13)
    Recent modeling for the northeast United States suggests that the least-cost decarbonization pathway involves a combination of build-out of domestic renewables generation and increased intertie capacity with Canada. U.S. imports of Canadian hydropower have increased by > 1 TWh per year between 2007–2021 because it is a cost-effective and low-carbon alternative to domestic fossil fuel generation. Yet, increased interconnection capacity and imports are controversial and have been opposed by U.S. environmental groups and members of the public. Development of new hydroelectric reservoirs disrupts foodways and lifeways of Indigenous populations and has greenhouse gas impacts greater than wind and solar (though less than fossil fuel alternatives). Two recently cancelled hydropower transmission projects linking New England and Quebec, Canada demonstrate the need to better understand the gap between pathways that appear optimal from the perspective of energy systems modeling and the pathways that will ultimately be socially and environmentally acceptable. The experience of the northeast mirrors that in other parts of the U.S. where substantial resources have been invested in pursuit of renewable projects that are ultimately abandoned following mobilization of stakeholders with adverse interests or values. A research program integrating environmental and economic modeling seeks to resolve controversies surrounding the use of Canadian hydropower in U.S. energy transitions. This includes conceptual disputes over valuation of hydropower from existing reservoirs in cost-benefit analysis; debates over whether new transmission infrastructure stimulates new generation capacity; and analysis of the relative importance of different benefits and impacts to the public.
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    Causal inference to scope environmental impact assessment of renewable energy projects and test competing mental models of decarbonization
    Gazar, Amir M.; Borsuk, Mark E.; Calder, Ryan S. D. (IOP Publishing, 2024-11-25)
    Environmental impact assessment (EIA), life cycle analysis (LCA), and cost benefit analysis (CBA) embed crucial but subjective judgments over the extent of system boundaries and the range of impacts to consider as causally connected to an intervention, decision, or technology of interest. EIA is increasingly the site of legal, political, and social challenges to renewable energy projects proposed by utilities, developers, and governments, which, cumulatively, are slowing decarbonization. Environmental advocates in the United States have claimed that new electrical interties with Canada increase development of Canadian hydroelectric resources, leading to environmental and health impacts associated with new reservoirs. Assertions of such second-order impacts of two recently proposed 9.5 TWh yr−1 transborder transmission projects played a role in their cancellation. We recast these debates as conflicting mental models of decarbonization, in which values, beliefs, and interests lead different parties to hypothesize causal connections between interrelated processes (in this case, generation, transmission, and associated impacts). We demonstrate via Bayesian network modeling that development of Canadian hydroelectric resources is stimulated by price signals and domestic demand rather than increased export capacity per se. However, hydropower exports are increasingly arranged via long-term power purchase agreements that may promote new generation in a way that is not easily modeled with publicly available data. We demonstrate the utility of causal inference for structured analysis of sociotechnical systems featuring phenomena that are not easily modeled mechanistically. In the setting of decarbonization, such analysis can fill a gap in available energy systems models that focus on long-term optimum portfolios and do not generally represent questions of incremental causality of interest to stakeholders at the local level. More broadly, these tools can increase the evidentiary support required for consequentialist (as opposed to attributional) LCA and CBA, for example, in calculating indirect emissions of renewable energy projects.
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    Decarbonization via long-distance transmission of hydropower is cost-effective
    Calder, Ryan S. D.; Robinson, Celine; Borsuk, Mark E. (2021-12-14)
    Hydropower is associated with substantially lower carbon emissions than fossil fuels and can satisfy baseload electricity demand unlike wind and solar power. In the northern United States, imports of Canadian hydropower account for a large and growing share of the electricity portfolio. For example, in New England, Canadian hydropower increased from 10% to 21% of electricity supplied to consumers between 2010 and 2020. These imports are increasingly dependent on capital-intensive long-distance transmission projects between the Canadian border and U.S. urban centers. While costs of these projects are clearly defined in dollars, benefits accrue in diverse forms, ranging from avoided air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions to reduced fuel and operation costs. This severely complicates cost-benefit analysis and has led to controversy over the role of Canadian hydropower in U.S. renewable energy transitions. We develop a probabilistic, multiattribute economic valuation model to explicitly compare direct and environmental costs and benefits of energy transition scenarios. We apply this model to the New York City area, where the recent closure of a ~2,000 MW nuclear power plant has increased demand for fossil fuel generation, and a proposed $4-billion long-distance hydropower transmission project has caused disagreement among environmental groups and other stakeholders. We find that coupling long-distance hydropower transmission with planned build-out of wind and solar reduces net total costs over 2021-2050 on the order of tens of billions of dollars, primarily due to avoided greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution whose economic value outweighs the added upfront capital costs. Long-distance hydropower transmission averts health and property impacts of air pollution from fossil fuel generators associated with an economic value on the order of hundreds of millions of dollars concentrated in vulnerable communities facing disproportionate environmental risks. These findings are robust to an extensive sensitivity analysis. This model provides a novel, transparent framework for supporting decision-making about long-distance hydropower transmission elsewhere.
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    Forecasting ecosystem services to guide coastal wetland rehabilitation decisions
    Calder, Ryan S. D.; Shi, Congjie; Mason, Sara A.; Olander, Lydia P.; Borsuk, Mark E. (Elsevier, 2019-10-01)
    Coastal wetlands provide diverse ecosystem services such as flood protection and recreational value. However, predicting changes in ecosystem service value fr0k from restoration or management is challenging because environmental systems are highly complex and uncertain. Furthermore, benefits are diverse and accrue over various timescales. We developed a generalizable mathematical coastal management model to compare restoration expenditures to ecosystem service benefits and apply it to McInnis Marsh, Marin County, California, USA. We find that benefits of restoration outweigh costs for a wide range of assumptions. For instance, costs of restoration range from 8–30% of the increase in ecosystem service value over 50 years depending on discount rate. Flood protection is the dominant monetized service for most payback periods and discount rates, but other services (e.g., recreation) dominate on shorter timescales (>50% of total value for payback periods ≤4 years). We find that the range of total ecosystem service value is narrower than overall variability reported in the literature, supporting the use of mechanistic methods in decision-making around coastal resiliency. However, the magnitude and relative importance of ecosystem services are sensitive to payback period, discount rate and risk tolerance, demonstrating the importance of probabilistic decision analysis. This work provides a modular, transferrable tool to that can also inform coastal resiliency investments elsewhere.
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    Forecasting the impact of climate change on pathogen exposures from concentrated animal feeding operations
    Chowdhury, Mahabub; Borsuk, Mark E.; Robinson, Celine S.; Krapu, Christopher; Calder, Ryan S. D. (2024-12-10)
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    Graphical models and the challenge of evidence-based practice in development and sustainability
    Calder, Ryan S. D.; Alatorre, Andrea; Marx, Rebecca S.; Mallampalli, Varun; Mason, Sara A.; Olander, Lydia P.; Jeuland, Marc; Borsuk, Mark E. (Elsevier, 2020-08-01)
    Governments and social benefit organizations are expected to consider evidence in decision-making. In development and sustainability, evidence spans disciplines and methodological traditions and is often inconclusive. Graphical models are widely promoted to organize interdisciplinary evidence and improve decision-making by considering mediating variables. However, the reproducibility, objectivity and benefits for decision-making of graphical models have not been studied. We evaluate these considerations in the setting of energy services in the developing world, a contemporary development and sustainability imperative. We develop a database of relevant causal relations (313 concepts, 1337 relationships) asserted in the literature (561 peer-reviewed articles). We demonstrate that high-level relationships of interest to practitioners feature less consistent evidence than the causal relationships that underpin them, supporting increased use of problem decomposition through graphical modeling approaches. However, adding such detail increases complexity exponentially, introducing a hazard of overparameterization if evidence is not available to match the level of mechanistic detail.
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    Modeling forest dynamics to characterize delivery of ecosystem services on military installations across the United States
    Matthews, Emily; Abowd, Laurel; Borsuk, Mark E.; Krapu, Christopher; Mangin, Tracey; Mason, Sara; Olander, Lydia P.; Plantinga, Andrew; Warnell, Katie; Calder, Ryan S. D. (2024-12-13)
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    Total social costs and benefits of long-distance hydropower transmission
    Calder, Ryan S. D.; Robinson, Celine S.; Borsuk, Mark E. (American Chemical Society, 2022-11-29)
    Increasing amounts of hydropower are being exported from Canada to the northern United States. Recently proposed projects would increase transmission capacity to U.S. population centers without increasing generation. This avoids generation-side impacts from hydroelectric development and introduces power to the U.S. energy mix that is dispatchable, unlike wind and solar, with greenhouse gas emissions generally lower than those of fossil fuels. There is, however, a lack of analysis comparing high upfront capital costs to social benefits and controversy over valuation of social costs of hydropower from existing generation given the negligible marginal cost of production. This analysis evaluates direct and indirect costs in comparison to alternatives for a 1250 MW transmission line from Canada to New York City currently under development to replace the recent loss of ∼15 TWh year-1 of nuclear generation. For the case study considered, we find that long-distance transmission avoids $13.2 billion ($12.1-14.4 billion) in total social costs by 2050. This includes $4.2 billion ($3.4-5.1 billion) from premature mortality in disproportionately Hispanic and African American or Black counties (roughly 306 avoided deaths). In an extensive sensitivity analysis, results are robust to all modeling choices other than the cost assigned to hydropower: the nominal dollar value of hydropower imports (payments from buyer to seller) commonly used in cost-benefit analysis leads to substantial underestimates of net benefits from transmission projects. The opportunity cost of these imports (e.g., environmental benefits foregone in alternative export markets) is a better metric for cost but is difficult to estimate.