Browsing by Author "Bukvic, Anamaria"

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    Access to Water: Advancement of Multidimensional, Multiscalar, and Participatory Methods of Measurement in the Global South
    Prince, Breeanna Carroll (Virginia Tech, 2018-06-29)
    This project deploys a modified Water Poverty Index (WPI) in villages reconstructed after the 2004 tsunami in southeastern India. While previous measurements of access to water have advanced understandings of waterscape complexities, this modified WPI improves past efforts and deconstructs some of the previous misunderstandings and notions regarding access to water. The traditional WPI is multidimensional and seeks to measure water access in a holistic fashion; the WPI presented here employs this approach, but is adapted to include new place-based indicators (e.g., Secondary Sources). Furthermore, unlike previous iterations of the WPI, our modified index incorporates water quality testing, three weight schemes, and operates at several scales. Ultimately, the construction and arrangement of our modified WPI enables statistical analyses, geospatial analyses, and water poverty mapping -- which are absent in most prior studies-- while still remaining easy to populate and descriptively analyze among non-academicians. Statistical tests of original household level data from a total of 24 villages in Nagapattinam District, Tamil Nadu, and Karaikal District, Puducherry, indicate significant differences between the two districts in indicator scores as well as total WPI score. Additionally, the urban and rural areas within each district were found to be significantly different in level of water poverty, and trends were similar across the three weight schemes. Multiple linear regressions show correlation of independent socioeconomic variables (i.e., Income, Education, and Assets-Networks) with the dependent indicator of Capacity, but not with the other indicators or total WPI score. Global Moran's I tests indicate positive spatial autocorrelation, demonstrating that indicator and WPI scores tend to cluster in space. Overall, the results match what was anticipated, yet serve to challenge commonly held assumptions on urban-rural hierarchies and the role of socioeconomic variables in determining water poverty. The construction, deployment, and analytical potential of this modified WPI can be used by scholars to improve existing conceptualizations and measurements of access to water, while the results can be used by local governments and nonprofits to improve resource allocation and inform spatially-targeted interventions.
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    Aging in Flood-Prone Coastal Areas: Discerning the Health and Well-Being Risk for Older Residents
    Bukvic, Anamaria; Gohlke, Julia M.; Borate, Aishwarya; Suggs, Jessica (MDPI, 2018-12-18)
    Coastal communities are increasingly exposed to more intense and frequent hurricanes, accelerated sea-level rise, and prolonged tidal inundation, yet they are often a preferred retirement destination for older adults vulnerable to flooding and extreme weather events. The unique physical and psychosocial challenges of older population age 65 and over may affect their level of preparedness, capacity to cope with, and ability to respond and recover from a hazard event. Despite the clear vulnerabilities of older residents living in high-risk areas when compared to younger coastal populations, there is a lack of empirical research on the integrated flood risks to this population group in the coastal context. This paper provides a holistic assessment of this emerging problem along the U.S. East Coast by measuring the exposure of older population to sea level rise and storm surge in coastal counties. It further evaluates how age-related vulnerabilities differ between rural and urban settings using the case study approach and geospatial and statistical analysis the paper also conducts a review of scientific literature to identify gaps in the current understanding of health and well-being risks to aging populations in coastal communities. The results show that older populations are unevenly distributed along the U.S. East Coast with some states and counties having significantly higher percent of residents age 65 and older living along the shoreline. Many places with larger older populations have other attributes that further shape the vulnerability of this age group such as older housing stock, disabilities, and lower income and that often differ between rural and urban settings. Lastly, our study found that vast majority of research on aging in high-risk coastal locations has been conducted in relation to major disasters and almost none on the recurrent nuisance flooding that is already affecting many coastal communities.
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    Anticipating and adapting to the future impacts of climate change on the health, security and welfare of low elevation coastal zone (LECZ) communities in Southeastern USA
    Allen, Thomas; Behr, Joshua; Bukvic, Anamaria; Calder, Ryan S. D.; Caruson, Kiki; Connor, Charles; D'Elia, Christopher; Dismukes, David; Ersing, Robin; Franklin, Rima; Goldstein, Jesse; Goodall, Jonathon; Hemmerling, Scott; Irish, Jennifer L.; Lazarus, Steven; Loftis, Derek; Luther, Mark; McCallister, Leigh; McGlathery, Karen; Mitchell, Molly; Moore, William B.; Nichols, C. Reid; Nunez, Karinna; Reidenbach, Matthew; Shortridge, Julie; Weisberg, Robert; Weiss, Robert; Donelson Wright, Lynn; Xia, Meng; Xu, Kehui; Young, Donald; Zarillo, Gary; Zinnert, Julie C. (MDPI, 2021-10-29)
    Low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) are extensive throughout the southeastern United States. LECZ communities are threatened by inundation from sea level rise, storm surge, wetland degradation, land subsidence, and hydrological flooding. Communication among scientists, stakeholders, policy makers and minority and poor residents must improve. We must predict processes spanning the ecological, physical, social, and health sciences. Communities need to address linkages of (1) human and socioeconomic vulnerabilities; (2) public health and safety; (3) economic concerns; (4) land loss; (5) wetland threats; and (6) coastal inundation. Essential capabilities must include a network to assemble and distribute data and model code to assess risk and its causes, support adaptive management, and improve the resiliency of communities. Better communication of information and understanding among residents and officials is essential. Here we review recent background literature on these matters and offer recommendations for integrating natural and social sciences. We advocate for a cyber-network of scientists, modelers, engineers, educators, and stakeholders from academia, federal state and local agencies, non-governmental organizations, residents, and the private sector. Our vision is to enhance future resilience of LECZ communities by offering approaches to mitigate hazards to human health, safety and welfare and reduce impacts to coastal residents and industries.
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    Assessing Climatic Hazards in Coastal Socio-Ecological Systems using Complex System Approaches
    Nourali, Zahra (Virginia Tech, 2024-05-31)
    Coastal socio-ecological systems face unprecedented challenges due to climate change, with impacts encompassing long-term, chronic changes and short-term extreme events. These events will impact society in many ways and prompt human responses that are extremely challenging to predict. This dissertation employs complex systems methods of agent-based modeling and machine learning to simulate the interactions between climatic stressors such as increased flooding and extreme weather and socio-economic aspects of coastal human systems. Escalating sea-level rise and intensified flooding has the potential to prompt relocation from flood-prone coastal areas. This can reduce flood exposure but also disconnect people from their homes and communities, sever longstanding social ties, and lower the tax base leading to difficulties in providing government services. Chapter 2 demonstrates a stochastic agent-based model to simulate human relocation influenced by flooding events, particularly focusing on the responses of rural and urban communities in coastal Virginia and Maryland. The findings indicate that a stochastic, bottom-up social system simulator is able to replicate top-down population projections and provide a baseline for assessing the impact of increasingly intense flooding. Chapter 3 leverages this model to assess how incorporating heterogeneity in relocation decisions across socio-economic groups impacts flood-induced relocation patterns. The results demonstrate how this heterogeneity leads to a decrease in low-income households, yet a rise in the proportion of elderly individuals in flood-prone regions by the end of the simulation period. Flood-prone areas also exhibit distinct income clusters at the end of simulation time horizon compared to simulations with a homogenous relocation likelihood. Lastly, Chapter 4 explores relationships between extreme weather and agricultural losses in the Delmarva Peninsula. Existing research on climatic impacts to agriculture largely focuses on changes to major crop yields, providing limited insights into impacts on diverse regional agricultural systems where human management and adaptation play a large role. By comparing various multistep modeling configurations and machine learning techniques, this work demonstrates that machine learning methods can accurately simulate and predict agricultural losses across the complex agricultural landscape that exists on the Delmarva peninsula. The multistep configurations developed in this work are able to address data imbalance and improve models' capacity to classify and estimate damage occurrence, which depends on multiple geographical, seasonal, and climatic factors. Collectively, this work demonstrates the potential for advanced modeling techniques to accurately replicate and simulate the impacts of climate on complex socio-ecological systems, providing insights that can ultimately support coastal adaptation.
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    Capturing complexity: Environmental change and relocation in the North Slope Borough, Alaska
    Garland, Anne; Bukvic, Anamaria; Maton-Mosurska, Anuszka (Elsevier, 2022-12)
    This paper explores the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors about emerging hazards, environmental change, and relocation among community groups in Utqiaġvik (Barrow) of the North Slope Borough (NSB), Alaska. This region has been experiencing accelerating erosion and warmer temperatures, permafrost thawing, more frequent and intense storm surges, and increased maritime traffic and extractive industries with ice loss, with direct or cascading effects on the mixed ethnic and indigenous communities. This paper used engagement activities (Participatory Applied Theater) and qualitative approaches (focus groups) during three consecutive summers 2016-2018 to evaluate the risk perceptions and interpretations towards coastal changes and relocation as an adaptive response in this U.S. strategic yet remote location. Each focus group session started with risk ranking activities about regional hazards to assess knowledge and perceptions of risk, followed by an interactive script reading of an Iñupiat disaster legend to facilitate discussion about risk reduction options and engagement with the survey questions. Focus groups were audio recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using qualitative data analysis software Nvivo and a hybrid coding strategy. Results indicate that relocation is considered by some participants but is not planned for nor implemented by community groups, families, or the local government to reduce the hazard risks. However, widespread recognition of accelerated hazards and environmental changes, and the need for adaptation could lead to consideration of relocation in the future. This study provides a case of disaster risk reduction in a remote place with unique place-specific characteristics (e.g., particular forms of subsistence, corporate monopolies, Traditional Ecological Knowledge, and social organizations), but also shaped by significant external influences, accompanied by a changing landscape of risk from the slow and rapid onset of environmental changes.
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    Climate Change Relocation as an Adaptation Strategy: from Taboo to Opportunity
    Bukvic, Anamaria (Virginia Tech, 2012-07-19)
    Relocation is often taboo among policy makers and planners due to its political, social, and ethical connotations, and although increasingly mentioned as one of the potential climate change adaptation strategies, it mostly adheres to rhetoric with limited discussion of its actual implementation. Scientific study and observation indicate the imminence of climate change impacts, many of which may exceed the adaptive capacity of vulnerability hotspots. Therefore, it is imperative to reassess this response option in the light of its past negative reputation, the success of current initiatives, and decision makers' evolving perception of relocation as an adaptation option. The main objective of this dissertation research is to determine the need for, interest in, and prospects for community relocations as an adaptation option; explore ways to address limitations associated with this alternative, and identify opportunities that could emerge from the relocation process. This study reviews experiences from the past and current relocation efforts and gauges the current level of interest in and support for this adaptation option among policy makers and planners. It also provides conceptual models - the relocation scenario, its digitalized simulation, the Climate Change Relocation Leaf, and the Relocation Suitability Index - designed to help communities, policy makers and planners explore this alternative. The research commences with a comprehensive literature review of theoretical knowledge, past experiences, current case studies, and the existing state of institutional, political, and social perspectives related to climate change migration and relocation. It continues with a comparative content analysis of climate change adaptation plans to elucidate the relocation rhetoric utilized in the selected texts at what frequency and in what context. Next, the study represents the climate change relocation models and a scenario developed to engage decision-makers and stakeholders in assessing the need for and possibility of relocation. Lastly, the project concludes with the development of a conceptual and tabular framework for the Relocation Suitability Index and subsequent simulation designed to compare possible relocation host sites systematically based on their absorption capacity.
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    Climate change, perceived human environment changes, and adaptation responses in coastal Indigenous community of Akplabanya, Ghana
    Ayesu-Danso, Brandy (Virginia Tech, 2024-01-23)
    Coastal communities are facing unprecedented challenges as impacts of climate change continue to escalate globally. Rising sea levels, intensified storm activity, and coastal erosion are extreme climate impacts noticed frequently in coastal communities. Indigenous coastal communities in Ghana are impacted by these extreme climate impacts. In this thesis, I studied the perceived human-environment changes in Indigenous community of Akplabanya. Akplabanya community on the coast of Ghana is experiencing changes in their cultural heritage, environmental surroundings, and their climate. This thesis sought to explore adaptation dynamics within Akplabanya and offer insights into their human-environmental changes and resilience in the face of climate change. In studies that focus on Ghana, little is known about the changes of human-environment interaction in Akplabanya, or their Indigenous peoples' responses to those changes. The two objectives of this study are: 1). To identify changes in coastal human-environment interactions as perceived by the Akplabanya Indigenous community, and 2). To examine the human adaptation responses of the Akplabanya community to the changes in their coastal human-environment interactions. I used four qualitative data collection methods. Semi-structured interviews (n=61) enlisted personal experiences and insights on changing environment and adaptation responses. Key informant interviews (n=28) provided additional insights into context and history. Focused group discussions (n=3), each comprising five participants, focused the community's collective narratives on changing environment and adaptation responses. Participant observation conducted throughout data collection helped me to understand daily life of Akplabanya. Data collection occurred over a period of two months (December 2022-February 2023). I found five themes to explain Akplabanya's perceptions about the changes of coastal human-environment interactions. They are: 1). Biodiversity loss (e.g. vegetation loss), 2). Pollution (e.g. unsustainable practices), 3). Coastal climate change (e.g. coastal erosion), 4). Resource change (e.g. freshwater change), and Population change (e.g. increasing population). I also built participant responses that addressed objective 2 on themes of place, agency, collective action, institutions, coastal Indigenous knowledge, and learning. The findings built on these themes highlights changes in coastal human-environment interactions in coastal fisheries, water systems, land utilization, livestock management, architectural practices, and the preservation of Indigenous knowledge in Akplabanya.
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    Entrepreneurship-based factors to foster climate adaptation among Indigenous communities
    Ebawala Pitiyalage, Indunil Prabodha Dharmasiri (Virginia Tech, 2024-01-25)
    Entrepreneurship-based factors to foster climate adaptation among Indigenous communities Indunil Prabodha Dharmasiri Ebawala Pitiyalage ABSTRACT (ACADEMIC) This thesis investigates the factors that cause the emergence of entrepreneurship to foster climate adaptation responses among Indigenous communities. These factors can influence, enhance, or degrade the potential for entrepreneurship in the climate change adaptation context. While these factors are well-studied for non-Indigenous communities, they remain understudied for Indigenous communities' contexts. The objectives of this study are to identify the factors that shape the emergence of entrepreneurship to foster adaptive responses to climatic risks faced by Indigenous communities and to assess the identified entrepreneurship-based factors through a case study. I followed a two-stepped methodological approach through a systematic literature review and a case study analysis among Sri Lankan Indigenous 'Vedda' communities. The systematic review included 65 peer-reviewed articles from the Web of Science and Scopus databases, and the case study analysis involved 90 in-depth semi-structured interviews with nine Indigenous communities in Sri Lanka. I found 15 entrepreneurship-based factors that shape the emergence of entrepreneurship to foster climate adaptation. I categorized those 15 factors under five key themes. They are learning (crop failure, learning, prior entrepreneurial experience), institutions (social networks, institutional support, overcoming the agency-structure paradox), place (resource (un)availability, location, environmental risk factors), capacity (access to information, entrepreneurs' psychological traits, access to capital) and strategy (business characteristics, product range, market characteristics). I applied these factors to the Sri Lankan Indigenous community context and assessed them through case studies. My study frames the potential of entrepreneurship to foster climate adaptation among Indigenous communities. Further, the study provides insights for scholars, practitioners, and policymakers in making climate change adaptation-related Indigenous policies and broader-level applications, such as the development of new adaptation measures to reduce the risks of climatic changes through entrepreneurship.
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    Exploring neighborhood-level resilience to flooding: Why the context and scale matter
    Bukvic, Anamaria; Borate, Aishwarya; Hughes, Shereen; Weaver, Ross; Imburgia, David; Stiles, William A. (2021-03-10)
    This article explores the role of contextual neighborhood-level considerations in community resilience planning in coastal urban locations. A comparative case study analysis was conducted in three different locations in the City of Hampton, Virginia, that all share a common challenge of coastal flooding but have distinctly different neighborhood-level circumstances that shape their flood impacts and resilience building options. The research approach utilizes a co-production of knowledge and descriptive statistics to identify the overall flood risk and socioeconomic attributes of each locality that may influence broader citywide resilience investments within the realm of three overarching options: protection, accommodation, and relocation. It then applies a geospatial network analysis to determine which study neighborhoods will have significantly reduced access to critical facilities such as emergency services, medical facilities, and schools due to accelerated sea level rise as one of the key coastal hazards in this low-lying region. The results show that each case study location has its own unique contextual circumstances that define its preferences for different resilience strategies regardless of the actual flood risk. The results also highlight the importance of holistic assessment of granular conditions that play a critical role in prioritization of resource allocation and interventions in coastal municipalities.
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    Flood Modeling and Community Engagement in Giles County, Virginia
    Kahl, Alexandra Claire (Virginia Tech, 2020-06-04)
    Evaluating and educating communities on their flood risks is an integral part of adapting to climate change and more extreme precipitation patterns. Low-income communities are often the most affected by in-land floods. They are more likely to live in floodplains and have less socioeconomic mobility. This thesis takes a two-pronged approach to evaluating flood risk. First, a flood risk model that identifies areas of high runoff in Giles County, Virginia was developed. The model accounts for land cover, soil type and elevation. The soil retention layer and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) produced a cell by cell layer of runoff. Storm data was collected from the NEXRAD program and integrated into the runoff layer. Countywide maps of low, moderate and high risk were produced. Semi structured interviews were then conducted to gauge the usability of the maps within high risk areas. Interview feedback was transcribed and coded for analysis. Themes identified throughout the interviews, were used to make adjustments to the model and maps. This experience suggests that combining technical analysis and community engagement can create a more accurate depiction of flood risk that is meaningful to those most affected. This paper also suggests that evaluating riverine flooding based on the most severe, recent storm yields a more accurate and impactful tool than previous flood modeling methods. This work takes flood modeling a step farther by receiving community input and shows that models are only as useful as they are meaningful to the most impacted communities.
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    Fostering University Collaboration and Building Capacity to Respond to Coastal Resilience Challenges in Virginia: Findings from the Rotating Resilience Roundtables Workshop Spring 2019
    Yusuf, Wie; Covi, Michelle; Bukvic, Anamaria; Allen, Tom; Oguntuyo, Taiwo (Old Dominion University, 2019-04-12)
    The second Resilience Roundtable event was held at the Old Dominion University in Norfolk, VA, on April 11 & 12, 2019. The roundtable discussions focused on the following themes of: 1) Changing Ecosystems; 2) Climate and Health; 3) Policy and Politics of Resilience; 4) Flooding and the Built Environment; and 5) Emergency Management and Adaptation Equity. In addition, the Virginia Sea Grant Director Troy Hartley gave a keynote address about Team Science to encourage thinking about team building while tackling coastal resilience issues. Other presentations covered topics ranging from urban flooding and emergency response to the Virginia Department of Health's efforts to address the public health impacts of climate change that are emerging as a priority for the Commonwealth.
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    Impacts of coastal flooding on watersheds in Hampton Roads, VA
    Mitchell, Allison Paige (Virginia Tech, 2021-05-28)
    Coastal communities face threats of flooding associated with episodic storm events and high tides that are increasing in severity and frequency due to climate change and sea level rise (SLR). The Mid-Atlantic U.S. is experiencing SLR at rates faster than the global average, especially in Hampton Roads, Virginia where the rate of SLR is accelerating due to land subsidence. Adaptation plans for coastal flooding are mostly made at the municipality level, ignoring the propagation of water across its administrative boundaries. Impact assessment at the watershed scale identifies areas where municipalities will need to collaborate to mitigate the flood impact. The main purpose of this project was to evaluate the impact of flooding among watersheds in Hampton Roads and identify those most at risk that overlap one or more municipal boundary. Additionally, this research assessed the impact on land use/cover and population throughout the Hampton Roads region and within a case study watershed. To meet these objectives, we used U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 50-year floodplain and NOAA intermediate SLR scenarios for 2030, 2060, and 2090 to calculate the percent land area inundated for each watershed in Hampton Roads. Further, we assessed the flood impact on populations and specific land use/covers throughout the region for each SLR scenario, as well as within the Elizabeth River watershed. Key findings show that five watersheds will see a greater increase in inundated area than the surrounding watersheds, with two that overlap multiple municipalities. The anticipated land use impacts indicate significant inundation of land occupied by military, followed by commercial, industrial, and wetland covers both in Hampton Roads and within the Elizabeth River watershed. These findings not only highlight the need for more synchronized collaboration on adaptation between municipalities in Hampton Roads, but also provide a framework for the impact assessments in similar settings globally.
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    Key Drivers of Coastal Relocation in Spatial Clusters Along the US East Coast
    Gyanwali, Sophiya (Virginia Tech, 2024-07-18)
    Coastal flooding has been increasing in frequency and severity across the US East Coast, adversely impacting the human population. Preferred adaptation strategies, such as protection and accommodation, may prove insufficient under current climate change scenarios and projected future sea level rise, prompting the coastal population to consider relocation as a more efficient disaster risk reduction strategy. This study focuses on the flood-prone urban areas along the US East Coast where residents are more willing to relocate due to coastal flooding. Using the survey data, it evaluates the flood experiences, considerations toward relocation, and preferences for relocation destinations. The extent of top concerns influencing respondents' willingness to relocate, such as crime rate, buyout programs, access to critical services and amenities, and availability of comparable housing, were further explored as indirect relocation drivers. Four study locations with heightened relocation potential were identified across urban areas on the US East Coast. Relocation drivers such as crime and limited access to services and amenities are not significantly present in these study locations. However, the absence of buyout programs and affordable housing options in similar communities leaves low-income households trapped in high-risk zones, exacerbating socioeconomic disparities, and increasing the disproportionate risk faced by marginalized populations. The findings have important implications for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders involved in climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction efforts. They highlight the need for targeted interventions to address socioeconomic vulnerabilities, promote equitable access to housing, and enhance the resilience of communities facing coastal hazards.
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    Key Priorities and University Roles to Address Coastal Resilience in Virginia: Findings from the Rotating Resilience Roundtables Workshop Fall 2018
    Bukvic, Anamaria; Covi, Michelle (Old Dominion University, 2018)
    The first Rotating Resilience Roundtables event took place on October 11 and 12, 2018 on the Virginia Tech campus in Blacksburg and was co-organized between the Coastal@VT initiative at Virginia Tech and Old Dominion University/Virginia Sea Grant Climate Adaptation and Resilience Program. It was designed to respond to the need for a cohesive and policy-relevant science that will align and coordinate efforts between researchers and other stakeholders to benefit the Commonwealth’s resilience planning for changing conditions in coastal zone.
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    Moving from interdisciplinary to convergent research across geoscience and social sciences: challenges and strategies
    Finn, Donovan; Mandli, Kyle; Bukvic, Anamaria; Davis, Christopher A.; Haacker, Rebecca; Morss, Rebecca E.; O'Lenick, Cassandra R.; Wilhelmi, Olga; Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Merdjanoff, Alexis A.; Mayo, Talea L. (IOP Publishing, 2022-06)
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    The Role of Environmental Moisture on Tropical Cyclone Size and Structure
    Addington, Kayleigh Dae (Virginia Tech, 2023-06-07)
    Tropical cyclone (TC) size is integral in determining the spatial extent of TC impacts and is influenced by environmental wind shear and the overall moisture environment. Since initial TC size is related to future TC size, research focused on understanding the influences of TC size away from land can lead to a more complete understanding of the extent of coastal impacts associated with landfalling TCs. This study considers TCs located in an area of low to moderate wind shear located at least 100 km from major land masses. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is used to distinguish different environments based on the large-scale spatial pattern of total column water vapor (TCWV) surrounding the TC. Using these EOF patterns, four separate categories (groups) are created. Principal component (PC) scores indicate the time steps most contributing to the EOF pattern for each group and ultimately determine the time steps included in each group. TC sizes among the groups are compared using size metrics based on the wind field and shape metrics based on the precipitation field. These metrics are considered at the central timestep identified in the EOF analysis as well as a 48-hour window centered on the central timestep. There are no significant differences in the wind field size, but TCs with moisture to the southeast are the largest in terms of overall precipitation area. This suggests that moisture affects the size of the precipitation field but not the wind field. However, more research is needed to confirm this relationship. Storms with moisture to the southeast are also more intense and younger than TCs in other groups and show signs of inner core organization and subsequent intensification while TCs in the other groups do not. TCs in an extremely dry environment or with dry air to the southeast of the TC center are generally smaller, less closed, less solid, and older than TCs with moisture to the southeast and TCs with dry air to the northwest of the TC center. An additional analysis comparing the same size and shape metrics between TCs experiencing easterly and westerly shear is also completed. The wind shear results suggest that, while easterly shear is more commonly associated with younger and intensifying TCs regardless of moisture group, an environment with westerly shear is more favorable for intensification of TCs with moisture to the southeast due to the alignment of moisture and upward motion. Future work will investigate the physical processes contributing to these precipitation shape and size differences between groups and wind shear directions.
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    Simulation of Flood-Induced Human Migration at the Municipal Scale: A Stochastic Agent-Based Model of Relocation Response to Coastal Flooding
    Nourali, Zahra; Shortridge, Julie E.; Bukvic, Anamaria; Shao, Yang; Irish, Jennifer L. (MDPI, 2024-01-11)
    Human migration triggered by flooding will create sociodemographic, economic, and cultural challenges in coastal communities, and adaptation to these challenges will primarily occur at the municipal level. However, existing migration models at larger spatial scales do not necessarily capture relevant social responses to flooding at the local and municipal levels. Furthermore, projecting migration dynamics into the future becomes difficult due to uncertainties in human–environment interactions, particularly when historic observations are used for model calibration. This study proposes a stochastic agent-based model (ABM) designed for the long-term projection of municipal-scale migration due to repeated flood events. A baseline model is demonstrated initially, capable of using stochastic bottom-up decision rules to replicate county-level population. This approach is then combined with physical flood-exposure data to simulate how population projections diverge under different flooding assumptions. The methodology is applied to a study area comprising 16 counties in coastal Virginia and Maryland, U.S., and include rural areas which are often overlooked in adaptation research. The results show that incorporating flood impacts results in divergent population growth patterns in both urban and rural locations, demonstrating potential municipal-level migration response to coastal flooding.
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    The Social Cascades of Exposure to Flood Induced Natech Events on Vulnerable Populations in Hampton Roads, Virginia
    Crawford, Margaret Calyer (Virginia Tech, 2022-05-31)
    Coastal flood impacts are increasing in severity with the rising sea levels, causing damage to ecological and human systems. Climate-hazards may also result in cascading impacts, where an initial disaster sets off a chain of events that extends beyond the initial spatiotemporal point of impact. Coastal flood events may result in consecutive disasters in which the initial flood event results in a secondary technological disaster, prompting disruptions to socio-economic systems and resulting in a public health crisis. Flood events that trigger technological emergencies through the inundation and dispersion of hazardous materials are known as Natech disasters. However, current research on the cascading impacts of Natech events is limited. Hampton Roads, Virginia, is experiencing an accelerated rate of sea level rise and a proportionally higher risk of storm surge, potentially leading to a greater risk of Natech disasters. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of Natech events on surrounding communities in Hampton Roads. This study uses geospatial analysis to identify the current (2021) and future (2051) threats of flood-induced Natech disaster and assess its exposure to different coastal populations and ecosystems. The present study calculated the Flood Hazard Density Index (FHDI), using a 1-mile radius around the significantly flooded facilities to determine the spatial dispersion of Natech disasters. The flood risks were determined using the 100-year flood plain and intermediate (RCP 4.5) climate scenario. The risk of a Natech disaster was identified by combining the spatial extent of flood risk with the location of Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) facilities and National Priorities List (NPL) designated Superfund sites. The exposed environmental and social systems to Natech events were chosen through the literature gap analysis. Sociodemographic data from the American Community Survey were collected to examine its correlation with 2021 and 2051 FHDI-affected block groups. Findings reveal that block groups with higher proportions of minorities, people in poverty, and people without a vehicle experience significant exposure to a Natech disaster compared to those who are living further away from the TRI and Superfund facilities. Additionally, open water and wetland environments will also experience significant exposure to Natech events, which could indicate a loss of ecosystem services. This study suggests a need for proactive policy and programmatic interventions to minimize the potential impacts of Natech events on the surrounding communities, such as the remediation of Superfund sites and the development of hazard mitigation plans for TRI facilities.
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    Spatial Implications of Flood Exposure and Relocation Attitudes among Older Populations in Hampton Roads, VA
    Campbell, Jarek (Virginia Tech, 2023-02-07)
    Coastal communities along the eastern seaboard are continuously exposed to flooding and related impacts, compromising the health and safety of their residents and especially of more vulnerable older populations. In cases where structural protection and floodproofing measures may not protect households from all types of flooding, relocation may represent the most effective long-term adaptation option. However, the extent to which older residents in Hampton Roads, Virginia are exposed to such flooding is not well understood, nor are the factors influencing their relocation attitudes. Thus, the main objective of this research is to understand both the exposure to flooding and evaluate attitudes towards relocation among older residents in Hampton Roads. This study uses a mixed methods approach to analyze flood exposure and attitudes towards relocation among older adults living in this area. First, a geospatial analysis was conducted to assess the change in flood risk in Hampton Roads over a period of 60 years and exposure to older populations, aged 60 and over. Then the survey data were used to conduct a correlation analysis to examine the relationship between survey responses and respondents' willingness to consider relocation. The geospatial analysis showed that flood exposure in this area does not increase linearly with time, with several block groups experiencing accelerated levels of flood increases from 2000-2060. Most of the municipalities which experience high overlap between flood extent and older population percentages are urban and see dramatic increases in flood exposure from 2000-2060. The statistical results show that willingness to consider relocation is correlated to several variables measuring sociodemographic characteristics, place attachment, and flood exposure, and less to other considerations influencing the decision to permanently relocate. The most influential factors driving relocation attitudes are financial, where residents would consider relocation if compensated or offered similar housing elsewhere. Finally, a large proportion of respondents (40.28%) would prefer to permanently move to either a different region or different state should flooding continue in their community. The results of this study can help community leaders and policymakers to better understand the flood outcomes and assistance needs of their older populations living in flood-prone areas.