Browsing by Author "Chen, Chi Chung"

Now showing 1 - 9 of 9
  • Assessing regional impacts of change: Linking economic and environmental models
    Attwood, J.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Chen, Chi Chung; Eddleman, B.; Nayda, B.; Srinivasan, R. (Barking, England: Elsevier Science Ltd., 2000)
    There is an increasing demand for holistic analysis of proposed changes that addresses both environmental and economic factors and impacts. Because economic and environmental models typically have very different, seemingly irreconcilable structures, researchers may consider the expectations of policy makers unattainable. However, this paper presents a method for incorporating models with different spatial scales into a coherent national analysis. The authors combine an agricultural model with geographical boundaries on the state and county level and a watershed model with watershed boundaries. This method is the first to provide national analysis that includes economic results at the state and substate level and environmental results at the small watershed level. The example integrated model provides results for a national policy of cropland erosion control and dissemination of improved crop varieties by a state experiment station.
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    Assessing socioeconomic impacts of climate change on U.S. forests, wood-product markets and forest recreation
    Irland, L.; Adams, D.; Alig, R.; Betz, C.; Chen, Chi Chung; Hutchins, M.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Skog, K.; Sohngen, B. (Washington, D.C.: American Institute of Biological Sciences, 2001)
    In this paper we discuss the problems of projecting social and economic changes affecting forests and review recent efforts to assess the wood-market impacts of possible climate changes. To illustrate the range of conditions encountered in projecting socioeconomic change linked to forests, we consider two markedly different uses: forest products markets and forest recreation. In the case of forest products, we use an existing forest-sector model to arrive at new simulation results concerning the impacts of climate change. The impact of climate change on recreation has received less attention; here we consider a case study of downhill skiing. Other important forest values were not treated explicitly in this research. Our primary emphasis is on methods and issues in the socioeconomic assessment process. Our efforts may be viewed as an exercise in human ecology, studying complex interactions between human societies and their forests. We close with suggestions for future research.
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    Economic and environmental impact of improved sorghum and millet technology in Mali
    Eddleman, B.; Kergna, A.; Vitale, J.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Chen, Chi Chung; Dyke, P. (2001)
    To provide improved methods to assess the impact of introduction and use of technology, a suite of integrated interactive models was created for use in developing countries. The Agricultural Sector Model (ASM) was used to estimate the economic consequences of adopting a new sorghum production system derived from joint U.S. and Malian research under the INTSORMIL CRSP and ICRISAT. It assumed an adoption rate of between 20 and 30% among regions of Mali. Demand is based on estimates of population growth in the year 2015 (World Food Summit target date) for the various regions of Mali. The annual total national welfare associated with adoption of the technology was estimated to be FCFA 635 billion per year in the year 2015. The EPIC model was run with 20-year simulations. The model predicts a reduction in erosion using the new production system ranging 1-3% in the Segou region; 30-43% in Kayes. The reduction is attributed to faster development of canopy cover exhibited with the new system. This is due both to the improved germplasm and the increased use of fertilizer. These results suggest the economic benefits of the new production package are accompanied by positive environmental consequences through reduction in soil erosion.
  • Economic implications of potential ENSO frequency and strength shifts
    Chen, Chi Chung; McCarl, Bruce A.; Adams, Richard M. (Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001)
    This paper evaluates the economic consequences that would occur in the agricultural sector if the strength and frequency of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event would increase, which some researchers suggest could occur as a result of global climate change. The agricultural sector model applied by the authors predicted that a shift in only the frequency of ENSO events would cause damages to the global agricultural system on a scale of 3 to 4 hundred million dollars (U.S. currency). The damage caused if both strength and frequency and intensity increase could exceed one billion dollars. Although farmers can abate some of the damages through adaptions of crop mixes in anticipation of ENSO events, it is not possible to entirely offset losses.
  • Effects of climatic change on a water dependent regional economy: A study of the Texas Edwards Aquifer
    Chen, Chi Chung; Gillig, D.; McCarl, Bruce A. (Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000)
    This study uses the case study of the San Antonio Texas Edwards Aquifer region to examine the projected impacts of global climate change on regional water demand and supply. The authors address the economic impacts and the damage and sectoral reallocation of water resources that climate change causes in water short regions. Their model, which includes hydrology and economic factors in a regional assessment, suggests that there will be an increase in demand for water resources and a decrease in availability, resulting in an annual loss of 2.2-6.8 million for the region. The authors also find that protection of endangered species requires that springflows remain at their current levels, which can be achieved by decreasing pumping rates by 9 to 20%.
  • Effects of global climate change on the U.S. forest sector: Response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator
    McCarl, Bruce A.; Adams, D.; Alig, R.; Burton, D.; Chen, Chi Chung (Oldendorf, Germany: Inter-Research Science Center, 2000)
    This paper assesses the economic repercussions global climate change may have on the United States forest sector. The authors apply an economic forest sector model that accounts for a wide range of possible biological forest responses to climate change. Results are inputs for response functions, which yield overviews of the impacts caused by climate change. They found that the welfare of producers 30-40 years in the future is at greatest risk. However, overall impacts on both producers and consumers are relatively small, possibly due to the capacity of the forest sector to adjust, thus mitigating some of the effects of climate change.
  • An investigation of the relationship between pesticide usage and climate change
    Chen, Chi Chung; McCarl, Bruce A. (Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001)
    Many agriculturalists are concerned that climate change may increase pest migration and population increases, which could have very detrimental effects on the productivity and profitability of agriculture. The authors assess how current climate variations affect pesticide costs per acre in the U.S. as an indicator of the impacts of pest population changes. Examining pesticide costs independently for corn, cotton, potatoes, soybeans, and wheat, they found that all the studied crops required increased pesticide expenditures when rainfall increased, and all but wheat had higher costs with higher temperatures. Increased rainfall also increased the cost variability for cotton, while decreasing variability for the other crops. Higher temperatures corresponded to increased cost variability for corn, potatoes, and wheat and decreased variance for soybeans.
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    Policy and technology options for dairy systems in East Africa: Economic and environmental assessment
    Kaitho, R.; Eddleman, B.; Chen, Chi Chung; McCarl, Bruce A.; Angerer, Jay; Stuth, Jerry (2001)
    Assessment of smallholder dairy technology was used as a case study to develop models in the SANREM decision support system. Scenarios depicting the industry before current improvements, the current situation, and forecasted improvements resulting from further adoption of technology were evaluated. GIS methods were used to establish appropriate sampling frames for field studies and analysis. Forage and livestock models supplemented reported data as input to economic and environmental models. Assessment of the impact of alternative smallholder dairy technology packages was evaluated in the Sondu river basin using watershed models driven by economic and environmental models. With demand growth from projected population increases, full adoption of the improved dairy technology package would generate total economic welfare of KS 4,206 million. Full adoption of the technology package in the Sondu river basin would increase sediment loads in the basin by 5% over a 21-year period and stream flow would increase slightly. The general models developed from initial smallholder dairy studies predict annual increases in productivity of between 0.3 and 0.5% per year would be required to sustain food prices at current levels with 2015 demand. Intensification and extensification strategies were evaluated to achieve these levels of productivity. Combinations of strategies were predicted to be the most rational in meeting future food security demands with sustainable use of natural resources.
  • The value of ENSO information to agriculture: Consideration of event strength and trade
    Chen, Chi Chung; McCarl, Bruce A. (Bozeman, MT: Western Agricultural Economics Association, 2000)
    This paper uses economic models to assess the value of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase knowledge in agricultural planning. The authors evaluate the effects of improved forecasts of ENSO through economic modeling that incorporates the US agricultural sector and global trade. They attempted to quantify the impacts of expanding the model to include global consequences of ENSO shifts and also evaluated the value of basing the model on the full distribution versus averaged ENSO phase strength effects, finding that accounting for the full distribution increased the value of the information to twice that of the averaged distribution calculations.