Browsing by Author "Morgan, Edward Franklin"

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    Decisions under uncertainty by state fish and wildlife agencies
    Morgan, Edward Franklin (Virginia Polytechnic Institute, 1971)
    Decision makers within state fish and wildlife agencies face a multitude of decision problems. These decision makers are faced with many decision problems that are of sufficient magnitude to warrant the careful weighing of alternatives and consequences. Until recently, the few analytical methods for decision making available to these decision makers have been based on traditional economic theory with assumptions of complete knowledge and certainty. This study investigates several hypothetical problems which such decision makers may encounter and it is concluded that these decision makers often face incomplete knowledge and uncertainty. Based on that conclusion, the applicability of decision theory to fish and wildlife management problems is explored. Emphasis is placed on how the decision maker can improve his knowledge condition, the various options open to a decision maker if he must make a decision based on the available knowledge, and the mechanics and reasoning behind such options. The study concludes that fish and wildlife management problems are a relevant area for the application of decision theory. Not only does decision theory provide for the systematic consideration of uncertainty, but it also enables the decision maker to bring his experience and expertise into the decision process. While decision theory is by no means a Utopian process which will guarantee a "perfect" decision, it can provide a method for improved decision making for many decision problems which the fish and wildlife manager may face.