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Scholarly Works, Global Issues Initiative

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https://hdl.handle.net/10919/91381

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Browsing Scholarly Works, Global Issues Initiative by Subject "Regional trade"

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    Potential Economic Effects on the Philippines of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
    Cororaton, Caesar B.; Orden, David R. (Virginia Tech. Global Issues Initiative, 2015-02)
    The TPP is a potential economic block in Asia Pacific. If the negotiations are successful, the TPP can have important implications for the Philippines whether it decides to join or not because countries in TPP are important markets for Philippine exports and sources of imports, investments, and technology. The paper simulates a reduction in trade barriers within the TPP using a global CGE model. The results indicate trade creation within the TPP and trade diversion from the non-TPP. Philippine non-participation will generate small negative effects on the economy, but the economic opportunity cost of non-participation is larger. If the inflows of investments into the country improve with participation, the welfare gain is higher. While higher investments lead to real exchange rate appreciation, the majority of Philippine sectors benefit from the scale production effect of larger capital inflows.
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    Preliminary Report: Potential Economic Effects of the Reduction in Agricultural and Nonagricultural Trade Barriers in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
    Cororaton, Caesar B.; Orden, David R. (Virginia Tech. Global Issues Initiative, 2016-10)
    The objective of this paper is to provide an assessment of the potential economic effects in the U.S. and EU28 of reducing the trade barriers between the two economies¹. A global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to determine over the period 2015-2024 the immediate, medium-term and long-run effects on the bilateral trade between the U.S. and EU28, and the related effects on the rest of global trade. Aggregate trade creation and trade diversion effects are calculated, as well as the sectoral production, trade and consumption effects and impacts on factor prices and welfare in both economies.