Scholarly Works, Statistics

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https://hdl.handle.net/10919/24334

Research articles, presentations, and other scholarship

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Africa Knowledge, Data Source, and Analytic Effort (KDAE) Exploration
Deveans, T.; Lechtenberg-Kasten, S.; Buttrey, Samuel E.; Fricker, Ronald D. Jr.; Appleget, J. A.; Kulzy, W. W. (Tradoc Analysis Center, 2012-08)
The TRADOC Analysis Center (TRAC), Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), and other Department of Defense (DoD) organizations are currently conducting large data capture and analysis efforts on areas all around the world. As efforts in the US Central Command (CENTCOM) Area of Responsibility (AOR), particularly in both Iraq and Afghanistan draw down, many senior decision makers expect that the US African Command (AFRICOM) AOR will be the focus of future efforts in the coming years. This project will first build an assessment framework focused on the AFRICOM AOR identifying what data we would ideally like to gather and measure in a COIN environment, and then by actually gathering the data points from a multitude of sources we can identify gaps in the available data. Concurrently, this effort will develop the necessary software within the DaViTo (Data Visualization Tool), an open source, government owned exploratory data analysis tool, in order to allow the end user to construct an assessment framework utilizing a customized weighting scheme along with the ability to display results. Finally, this project will develop a scenario methodology and a small Proof of Principle use case in Nigeria by conducting factor analysis of survey data and will use Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) in order to predict future issue stance scores and observed attitudes and behaviors of the population that will directly support TRAC’s Irregular Warfare Tactical Wargame (IW TWG).
Assessing the Effects of Individual Augmentation (IA) on Active Component Navy Enlisted and Officer Retention
Fricker, Ronald D. Jr.; Buttrey, Samuel E. (Naval Postgraduate School, 2008-08)
This report summarizes the results of an analysis of whether individual augmentation (IA) deployment affects retention rates for Navy enlisted personnel and junior officers. The analysis compared retention rates between those personnel who have been deployed via IA to equivalent cohorts of Navy personnel who have not been on an IA deployment. Retention rates were compared in three different ways: aggregate comparisons, comparisons by individual demographic categories, and comparisons based on standard statistical modeling techniques (logistic regression), in order to simultaneously control for all the demographic and other observable characteristics. Overall, the analysis found little evidence that IA deployment is hurting retention rates among those who have experienced one or more IA deployments. In fact, in almost all of the comparisons, the retention rates of those who have had one or more IA deployments were higher than the retention rates of their Navy colleagues who have only been on conventional Navy deployments. The only categories where lower retention rates were definitively identified were for E-3s and E-4s, though the decrease in retention rates was only about one percent.
Cognitive Alignment with Performance Targeted Training Intervention Model: CAPTIM
Kennedy, Q.; Nesbitt, J. K.; Alt, J. K.; Fricker, Ronald D. Jr. (Naval Postgraduate School, 2015-02)
In this technical report, we propose that the use of two simple behavioral measures, in conjunction with neurophysiological measures, can be used to create a training intervention that has the potential to provide: (1) real-time notification as to when a training intervention is needed, and (2) real-time information as to the type of training intervention that should be employed. The Cognitive Alignment with Performance Targeted Training Intervention Model (CAPTTIM) determines if a trainee's cognitive state is aligned or misaligned with actual performance. When misalignment occurs, it indicates that a training intervention is needed. Neurophysiological markers as captured by eyetracking and electroencephalography (EEG) can assist in determining why misalignment between cognitive state and performance occurred, leading to more effective and targeted training intervention. Because all measures are captured continuously in real time, this model has the potential to increase training efficiency and effectiveness in a variety of training domains. The model is illustrated with two case studies.
Facilitating Targeted Interventions in Substance Abuse Treatment Programs Via a Risk Scoring Methodology
Fricker, Ronald D. Jr.; Cote, DJ (Naval Postgraduate School, 2014-04)
To facilitate targeted intervention in substance abuse treatment programs, a scoring methodology is developed to identify clients at risk of premature program exit. Designed to be simple enough for a clinician to easily apply in practice, the risk score is derived from self-reported and observable client characteristics collected at program intake. Our motivating problem is improving a residential substance abuse treatment program for military veterans, and we demonstrate the risk score applied to data from 680 veterans who exited from a San Diego-based rehabilitation program from 2009 to 2011. For this program, the existence of a mental health condition, chronic physical health condition, and the client’s residence prior to program admission were predictive of successfully completing 150 days of treatment. Length of stay and residence prior to program admission were predictive of successful program completion. The risk score methodology is generalizable and can be customized for any treatment program.
Future Navy Recruiting Strategies
Fricker, Ronald D. Jr.; Buttrey, Samuel E.; Alt, J. K. (Naval Postgraduate School, 2015)
Based on information gathered from the United States armed services, the Royal Navy and the Australian Defence Force, best practices in corporate America, and the academic literature, this report provides forward leaning practices and actionable recommendations to Commander, Navy Recruiting Command (CNRC). The goal is to improve and best align Navy Recruiting practices for the Millennial and post-Millennial generations. To achieve this, we: (1) identified and evaluated past alternative recruiting efforts, (2) assessed the literature on trends in the Millennial and post-Millennial generations, and (3) synthesized this information to pose future Navy recruiting strategies. Ultimately, this report concludes that the military recruiting community must establish a program of research and experimentation in order to learn how to improve military recruiting.
Improving the Success of Stream Restoration Practices – Revised and Expanded
Thompson, Theresa M.; Smith, Eric P. (2021-06-28)
Final Project Report submitted to the Chesapeake Bay Trust, Annapolis, MD.
The Integrative Model of Organizational Trust as a Framework for Understanding Trust in Government
Fricker, Ronald D. Jr.; Kulzy, W. W.; Combs, D. J. Y. (Naval Postgraduate School, 2014-12)
We assess the applicability of Mayer, Schoorman, and Davis's (1995) Integrative Model of Organizational Trust for modelling citizens' trust in their government, using country-level survey data collected in four Western Trans-Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Senegal, Mali, and Nigeria) in 2010. Although the original model focused on trust between individuals, our fundamental supposition is that the model also applies to individuals' trust in an organizational-level entity: government. Our findings also suggest there are two separate dimensions to ability and benevolence/integrity associated with trust in government, as well as the existence of a new term that we hypothesize is related to government reputation.
A Sampling Methodology for INSURV Material Inspections
Fricker, Ronald D. Jr. (Naval Postgraduate School, 2012)
This technical report summarizes research into sampling methods that the U.S. Navy Board of Inspection and Survey (INSURV) could employ during Material Inspections (MIs) of ships and submarines. The goal is to improve the Board’s efficiency in conducting MIs without compromising either Board effectiveness or inspection rigor. The idea of sampling is that, rather than inspecting every item of a specific type—for example, portable CO2 bottles—onboard a ship or submarine, INSURV will only inspect a sample of those items. From the sample, INSURV would then characterize the ship’s or submarine’s entire complement of that item. This report outlines a sampling methodology that is statistically rigorous and therefore quantitatively defensible, and it is implementable. It is based on well-known sampling methods, such as those described in Cochran (1977) and Lohr (1999). The method described herein allows INSURV to specify the desired margin of error of the results on each item. It is expected that this decision will be based on the mission essentiality and/or safety criticality of each item, where items that are mission essential or safety critical will be given very small margins of error. Similarly, items that are not mission essential or safety critical will be given appropriately larger margins of error.
Understanding Optimal Decision-making in Wargaming
Nesbitt, P.; Kennedy, Q.; Alt, J. K.; Fricker, Ronald D. Jr.; Whitaker, L.; Yang, J.; Appleget, J. A.; Huston, J.; Patton, S. (Naval Postgraduate School, 2013-10)
This research aims to gain insight into optimal wargaming decision-making mechanisms using neurophysiological measures by investigating whether brain activation and visual scan patterns predict attention, perception, and/or decision-making errors through human-in-the-loop wargaming simulation experiments. We investigate whether brain activity and visual scan patterns can explain optimal wargaming decision making and its development with a within-person design; i.e., the transition from exploring the environment to exploiting the environment. We describe ongoing research that uses neurophysiological predictors in two military decision making tasks that tap reinforcement learning and cognitive flexibility.
Virginia Tech Food Access and Security Study
Hall, Ralph P.; Ranganathan, Shyam; Agnew, Jessica L.; Christie, Maria Elisa; Kirk, Gary R.; Lucero, Christian; Clark, Susan F.; Archibald, Thomas G. (Virginia Tech, 2019-10-30)
There is growing evidence to suggest that a substantial number of college and university students in the United States grapple with food insecurity during their studies. One of the most comprehensive surveys on this issue was conducted by The Hope Center with 33 participating four-year institutions. They estimated that 41% of students had low or very low food security (Goldrick-Rab et al. 2019). A review of food security studies by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) (2018) found similar results and that few students who qualified for food assistance were aware of federal food assistance programs such as the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP). In response to the increasing concern over students’ access to food, this study aims to document food security at Virginia Tech. The study was designed with two parallel goals: to contribute to the national conversation on food access and security amongst higher education students; and to inform a strategic response through data-informed programs and policies at Virginia Tech. The first phase of the study was conducted between Fall 2017 and Spring 2018 and consisted of semi-structured key informant interviews. The second phase was conducted between December 2018 and January 2019 and consisted of an anonymous survey distributed to 32,242 students (27,421 undergraduate and 4,821 graduate) located in Blacksburg. A total of 2,441 (8.9%) undergraduate and 589 (12.2%) graduate students completed the entire survey (for a combined response rate of 9.4%). This study finds that 29% (±3.8%) of undergraduate and 35% (±7%) of graduate students were classified as having low or very low food security based on the USDA food security instrument. These findings are comparable with The Hope Center study (Goldrick-Rab et al. 2019). Students with low/very low food security status were more likely to be Hispanic/Latino or Black/African American, be receiving a Pell grant or financing their education through sources that need to be repaid, have a low GPA, and/or have a disability. Graduate students were also more likely than undergraduate students to be unable to afford to eat balanced meals or have to cut the size of their meals due to a lack of available funds. In general, the proportion of graduate students experiencing food-access problems was greater than the proportion of undergraduate students. A diet diversity score (DDS) was also developed from the student survey to measure the foods consumed by an individual within the previous 24 hours. The DDS is a proxy for dietary quality and helps provide insight into the barriers that students might face in accessing nutritious foods. The study found that on average students classified as having low/very low food security also had a lower DDS. This finding confirms that low food security is associated with a lower diet quality in addition to not having access to enough food. Students who reported that they sometimes or often did not have enough to eat in the past 12 months were also asked if they have received benefits from a range of food assistance programs. Of the 219 students who were asked this question, only 9% (n=20) reported receiving some form of assistance. When asked why they had not used a food assistance program, the primary response was that they felt other people needed more assistance than they did. The next three most selected reasons were a lack of awareness about (1) whether they were eligible for a food assistance program, (2) what programs exist, and (3) whom to speak with about what resources are available. These findings are consistent with the GAO (2018) report. These results reveal that students who potentially need food assistance may not know where to look for help, and administrative and/or social barriers related to existing on- and off-campus services may prevent students from seeking help even if they know it is available. This report also documents a range of on- and off-campus food assistance services that are available for students and provides a summary of the feedback obtained from the key informant interviews on potential next steps that could be taken by Virginia Tech. These steps include enhancing the coordination among, and awareness of, existing food assistance programs on and off campus, and new ideas such as creating an on-campus food pantry or subsidizing the cost of dining for students in need. Regardless of which actions are taken, we believe this report reveals our collective responsibility to ensure that no student at Virginia Tech goes hungry or is unable to access nutritious foods, and to create a community that nurtures learning and growth for all of its members.

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