For many years there has been concern about the performance of community college (CC) students who transfer from community to senior institutions. This concern has led to considerable research, most of which has shown that CC grade point average (GPA) declined in the first year of student transfer from one-half to a full point, a decline attributed to transfer shock. However, there has been little research on the overall success rate of transfer students and/or if certain measures of a student's performance in the CC might be more useful than such variables as scholastic aptitude test (SAT) scores or high school class rank (HSCR) in predicting performance in senior institutions, particularly in terms of different curricula. The purpose of this study was to determine if selected independent variables can be of assistance in answering questions for admissions officers, counselors, and students in terms of how well CC transfer students will do academically at a senior institution. Three hundred sixty-one students transferring to Virginia Tech (VPI) from the 23 Virginia CC in 1974 represented the study population.

Thirty-two independent variables known prior to transfer were used in an effort to determine the value of these variables in conjunction with each other as better predictors than the three variables (HSCR, SAT scores, and CC GPA) analysed most often in previous research. Two dependent variables were considered in the study: (1) academic standing at VPI that would classify the student as successful ( 2.0 or higher on a 4.0 grading scale), marginal (above academic drop level but below 2.0), or failure which would terminate enrollment at the end of the spring quarter, and (2) GPA at Virginia Tech. Statistical techniques used to investigate the relationship of the 32 independent variables to GPA and academic standing at VPI included stepwise regression analysis, analysis of variance, and stepwise discriminant analysis.

It was found that SAT scores and HSCR were less significant in predicting the transfer student's success in senior college than CC performance. The major predictors of GPA and academic success were found to be: (1) CC GPA, (2) CC mathematics, science, and English program including grades received and hours transferred, (3) quarter hours of credit transferred from the CC, (4) CC location, (5) VPI curriculum choice, and (6) completion of an Associate in Science or Associate in Arts degree before transfer. It was also found that a branching diagram might be developed from data collected which could be usefully employed to demonstrate the CC student's expected GPA at VPI based on independent variables used in the study and curriculum selected at VPI.

This research concludes that the most recent academic information is the best predictor of senior college GPA. This contradicts previous research which shows that SAT scores and HSCR are the best predictors. Selection of a curriculum is an important moderator variable. Verbal skills appear important in humanities, education, and business; quantitative skills in engineering, architecture, and agriculture. Transfer students graduating with a CC GPA of 3.0 or higher in the Associate in Science or Associate in Arts degree had approximately the same success rate at VPI as native students. Replication of the study is recommended in other states to determine if the findings are representative, and to obtain information of specific value to a specific institution.