Scholarly Works, Department of Economics
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Research articles, presentations, and other scholarship
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Twisting the truth: Foundations of wishful thinking
(202007)Considerable evidence shows that people have optimistic beliefs about future outcomes. I present an axiomatic model of wishful thinking (WT), in which an endowed alternative, or status quo, influences the agent's beliefs ... 
Sensitivity Analysis of an OLS Multiple Regression Inference with Respect to Possible Linear Endogeneity in the Explanatory Variables, for Both Modest and for Extremely Large Samples
(MDPI, 20200316)This work describes a versatile and readilydeployable sensitivity analysis of an ordinary least squares (OLS) inference with respect to possible endogeneity in the explanatory variables of the usual kvariate linear ... 
An Elementary Method for Detecting and Modeling Regression Parameter Variation Across Frequences With an Application to Testing the Permanent Income Hypothesis
(Virginia Tech, 199703)A simple technique for directly testing the parameters of a time series regression model for instability across frequencies is presented. The method can be easily implemented in the time domain, so parameter instability ... 
International Evidence On The Oil PriceReal Output Relationship: Does Persistence Matter?
(Virginia Tech, 20130828)The literature on the relationship between real output growth and the growth rate in the price of oil, including an allowance for asymmetry in the impact of oil prices on output, continues to evolve. Here we show that a ... 
Beyond Optimal Forecasting
(Virginia Tech, 20061104)While the conditional mean is known to provide the minimum mean square error (MSE) forecast – and hence is optimal under a squarederror loss function – it must often in practice be replaced by a noisy estimate when model ... 
Identification of Coefficients in a Quadratic Moving Average Process Using the Generalized Method of Moments
(Virginia Tech, 20020621)The output of a causal, stable, timeinvariant nonlinear filter can be approximately represented by the linear and quadratic terms of a finite parameter Volterra series expansion. We call this representation the “quadratic ... 
A Reconsideration of Consistent Estimation of a Dynamic Panel Data Model in the Random Effects (Error Components) Framework
(Virginia Tech, 20100419)It is widely believed that the inclusion of lagged dependent variables in a panel data model necessarily renders the Random Effects (RE) estimators, based on OLS applied to the quasidifferenced variables, inconsistent. ... 
Sensitivity Analysis of OLS Multiple Regression Inference with Respect to Possible Linear Endogeneity in the Explanatory Variables
(Virginia Tech, 20190617)This work describes a versatile sensitivity analysis of OLS hypothesis test rejection pvalues with respect to possible endogeneity in the explanatory variables of the usual kvariate linear multiple regression model which ... 
Nonnested Model Selection/Validation: Making Credible Postsample Inference Feasible
(Virginia Tech, 199504)Effective, credible inference with respect to the postsample forecasting performance of time series models is widely held to be infeasible. Consequently, the model selection and Grangercausality literatures have focussed ... 
Amenities, affordability, and housing vouchers
(Blackwell Publishing Inc., 20180619)Against the background of an emerging rental affordability crisis, we examine how the standard rule that households should not spend more than 30% of their income on housing expenditures leads to inefficiencies in the ... 
Strategic Resource Dependence and Adoption of a Substitute under LearningbyDoing
(Virginia Tech, 20130628)There is ample evidence that the production of alternative sources of energy is subject to learningbydoing. The present paper examines the implications of learningbydoing in the bilateral resource monopoly studied by ... 
Strategyproof Choice of Acts: Beyond Dictatorship
(Virginia Tech, 20170520)We model uncertain social prospects as acts mapping states of nature to (public) outcomes. A social choice function (or SCF) assigns an act to every profile of subjective expected utility preferences over acts. A SCF is ... 
Land and Racial Wealth Inequality
(American Economic Association, 2011)...Explanations for the persistent and large racial wealth gap largely fall into two categories. First, racially discriminatory policies in credit markets, labor markets, school finance, and other institutions may have ... 
Selection and Historical Height Data: Evidence from the 1892 Boas Sample of the Cherokee Nation
(USNA, 2017)Economists have increasingly turned to height data to gain insight into a population’s standard of living. Because height measures are used when other data is unavailable, testing their reliability can be difficult, and ... 
Frustration and Anger in Games
(Virginia Tech, 20150824)Frustration, anger, and aggression have important consequences for economic and social behavior, concerning for example monopoly pricing, contracting, bargaining, traffic safety, violence, and politics. Drawing on insights ... 
SubsetContinuousUpdating GMM Estimators for Dynamic Panel Data Models
(MDPI, 20161130)The twostep GMM estimators of Arellano and Bond (1991) and Blundell and Bond (1998) for dynamic panel data models have been widely used in empirical work; however, neither of them performs well in small samples with weak ... 
CloudSourcing: Using an Online Labor Force to Detect Clouds and Cloud Shadows in Landsat Images
(MDPI, 20150226)We recruit an online labor force through Amazon.com’s Mechanical Turk platform to identify clouds and cloud shadows in Landsat satellite images. We find that a large group of workers can be mobilized quickly and relatively ... 
Credible GrangerCausality Inference with Modest Sample Lengths: A CrossSample Validation Approach
(MDPI, 20140325)Credible Grangercausality analysis appears to require postsample inference, as it is wellknown that insample fit can be a poor guide to actual forecasting effectiveness. However, postsample model testing requires an ... 
Revisiting Simpson's Paradox: a statistical misspecification perspective
The primary objective of this paper is to revisit Simpson's paradox using a statistical misspecification perspective. It is argued that the reversal of statistical associations is sometimes spurious, stemming from invalid ... 
Revisiting the NeymanScott model: an Inconsistent MLE or an Illdefined Model?
The Neyman and Scott (1948) model is widely used to demonstrate a serious weakness of the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method: it can give rise to inconsistent estimators. The primary objective of this paper is to revisit this ...