A System Dynamics Model of the Development of New Technologies for Ship Systems
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We provide a comprehensive knowledge elicitation process in which members from the Newport News Shipbuilding, the Naval Sea Command Cost Estimating Group, and the Virginia Tech System Performance Laboratory take part in a group model building exercise. We build a System Dynamics model based on the information and data obtained from the experts. Our investigation of the dynamics yields two dominant behaviors that characterize the technology development process. These two dynamic behaviors are damped oscillation and goal seeking. Furthermore, we propose and investigate four dynamic hypotheses in the system. For the current structure of the model, we see that an increase in the complexity of new technologies leads to an increase in the total costs, whereas a increase in the technology maturity leads to a decrease in the total costs in the technology development process. Another interesting insight is that an increase in training leads to a decrease in total costs.
- Masters Theses