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dc.contributor.authorWhite, Saira Sultanaen_US
dc.description.abstractJapan is currently suffering its third economic downturn of the past decade. While Japan suffers from a variety of structural problems, the most acute is the crushing burden carried by the banks. They still suffer under the weight of thousands of billions of yen of bad loans resulting from the collapse in asset prices a decade ago. Japan's still unsolved banking crisis constitutes a threat to a large component of the global financial system.

Some economists believe that these events were avoidable. Better underwriting by Japanese banks and more prudent monetary policies by the Central Bank of Japan could have prevented the subsequent downturn and losses. It may be impossible to prove that sound policies could have avoided the persistent crisis altogether, but it seems unarguable that better professional underwriting by Japanese banks and more prudent monetary policies by the Central Bank could have mitigated the severity of the economic downturns and reduced huge losses.

The model I have constructed analyzes whether the events leading Japan into financial crisis could have been anticipated. The model is a simple multivariate econometric equation estimated monthly data between 1980 and 1990. This model appears to explain much of the variation in non-performing loans during this period. The model simulated during the period 1990 to 2001 indicates that the non-performing loans could have been anticipated. This model or one like it could have given bank regulators basic tools to anticipate the incidence of non-performing loans during the 1990s. Had regulators done so, it might have been possible for them to take those remedial actions that would have limited the subsequent numbers of poorly underwritten loans during the 1990s.

dc.publisherVirginia Techen_US
dc.rightsI hereby certify that, if appropriate, I have obtained and attached hereto a written permission statement from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis, dissertation, or project report, allowing distribution as specified below. I certify that the version I submitted is the same as that approved by my advisory committee. I hereby grant to Virginia Tech or its agents the non-exclusive license to archive and make accessible, under the conditions specified below, my thesis, dissertation, or project report in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of the thesis, dissertation or project report. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis, dissertation, or project report.en_US
dc.subjectBanking Crisisen_US
dc.subjectJapanese Economyen_US
dc.subjectBad Loansen_US
dc.titleBanking Crisis in Japan: Prediction of Non-Performing Loansen_US
dc.description.degreeMaster of Artsen_US of Artsen_US Polytechnic Institute and State Universityen_US
dc.contributor.committeechairWaud, Roger N.en_US
dc.contributor.committeememberLutton, Thomas J.en_US
dc.contributor.committeememberTheroux, Richard P.en_US

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