Engineering undergraduate enrollment and the engineering labor market : a lagged-supply analysis
Abstract
The relationship between economic and demographic
factors and the flow of new students into undergraduate
engineering programs was investigated. An empirical analysis
was undertaken based on a lagged-supply model developed
earlier by Richard Freeman. The analysis involved the
replication of the Freeman model over the 1948-1972 period,
the extension of the model through 1986, and the forecasting
of first-year engineering enrollments up to the year 2000.
The model developed in this thesis was able to a
accurately mirror the engineering enrollment trends from 1948
to 1986. The economic variables--especially R&D expenditures
and starting engineering salaries relative to median income
of college graduates--were found to be important factors in
the flow of freshmen into engineering. None of the
variables relating to demographic trends were found to
significantly related to first-year engineering enrollment.
The importance of the federal government's role in the
engineering labor market through research and development
funding is discussed, along with forecasts of possible trends
in first-year engineering enrollment.
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- Masters Theses [18654]