A systems dynamics economic evaluation methodology for high speed inter-city transportation

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1991
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Virginia Tech
Abstract

The objective of this study is to set a methodology for the economic evaluation of high speed ground transportation systems. The main objective of this study is to establish a systematic framework, in order that planners can quickly understand and analyze the implications that different policies have on the life-cycle of the transportation system. The methodology is adaptable for different modes and also for different locations at which similar systems could be implemented. The mode under consideration here is that of Magnetically levitated vehicles and the study area is the Northeast corridor of the United States.

The economic evaluation is based on a Systems Dynamics simulation model. The model incorporates socioeconomic parameters, trip generation, mode split, traffic engineering, economic parameters and elements of mass transportation. The interactions within these subsystems and between them are studied through various policy analysis which were conducted. The range of policy covers socioeconomic parameters, traffic strategies and economic parameters. Life cycle costs and revenues are the key performance indicators. Parameters such as elasticity values were assumed based on previous studies conducted in other locations.

Revenues from fares is the only benefit considered for implementation of the new transportation system. The model has been developed so that it can be expanded so as to include various other benefits from maglev implementation. The model is highly flexible and can be used for a wide range of policy analysis. With regard to magnetic levitated transportation system it was found to be an economically feasible transportation alternative to solve the problems facing high speed inter-city travel. The life cycle costs of such a venture were found to be highly sensitive to the cost of power and the elasticity values associated with the trip generation model.

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