The value of ENSO information to agriculture: Consideration of event strength and trade
Chen, Chi Chung
McCarl, Bruce A.
MetadataShow full item record
This paper uses economic models to assess the value of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase knowledge in agricultural planning. The authors evaluate the effects of improved forecasts of ENSO through economic modeling that incorporates the US agricultural sector and global trade. They attempted to quantify the impacts of expanding the model to include global consequences of ENSO shifts and also evaluated the value of basing the model on the full distribution versus averaged ENSO phase strength effects, finding that accounting for the full distribution increased the value of the information to twice that of the averaged distribution calculations.