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dc.contributor.authorMehl, Christopheren
dc.date.accessioned2016-06-27T19:03:44Zen
dc.date.available2016-06-27T19:03:44Zen
dc.date.issued2004-05en
dc.identifiereprint:289en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/71563en
dc.description.abstractIn this thesis, a dynamic spatial model for the spread of Chronic Wasting Disease in Colorado mule deer is derived from a system of differential equations that captures the qualitative spatial and temporal behaviour of the disease. These differential equations are incorporated into an empirical Bayesian hierarchical model through the unusual step of deterministic autoregressive updates. Spatial effects in the model are described directly in the differential equations rather than through the use of correlations in the data. The use of deterministic updates is a simplification that reduces the number of parameters that must be estimated, yet still provides a flexible model that gives reasonable predictions for the disease. The posterior distribution generated by the data model hierarchy possesses characteristics that are atypical for many Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques. To address these difficulties, a new MCMC technique is developed that has qualities similar to recently introduced tempered Langevin type algorithms. The methodology is used to fit the CWD model, and posterior parameter estimates are then used to obtain predictions about Chronic Wasting Disease.en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherUniversity of Colorado at Denveren
dc.rightsIn Copyrighten
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/en
dc.subjectBayesian modelen
dc.subjecthierarchical modelen
dc.subjectMarkov Chain Monte Carloen
dc.subjectLangevin algorithmen
dc.subjectepidemiologyen
dc.subjectdisease modelen
dc.subject.lccQAen
dc.titleBayesian Hierarchical Modeling and Markov Chain Simulation for Chronic Wasting Diseaseen
dc.typeDissertationen
dc.contributor.departmentApplied Mathematicsen
thesis.degree.leveldoctoralen
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Colorado at Denveren


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