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dc.contributor.authorZhao, Suwenen_US
dc.date.accessioned2016-12-10T07:00:22Z
dc.date.available2016-12-10T07:00:22Z
dc.date.issued2015-06-18en_US
dc.identifier.othervt_gsexam:5192en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/73649
dc.description.abstractThis study used two modelling approaches to predict future urban landscape for the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan areas. In the first approach, we implemented traditional SLEUTH urban simulation model by using publicly available and locally-developed land cover and transportation data. Historical land cover data from 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2011 were used to calibrate SLEUTH model and predict urban growth from 2011 to 2070. SLEUTH model achieved 94.9% of overall accuracy for a validation year of 2014. For the second modelling approach, we predicted future county-level population (e.g., 2050) using historical population data and time-series forecasting. We then used future population projection of 2050, aided by strong population-imperviousness statistical relationship (R2, 0.78-0.86), to predict total impervious surface area for each county. These population-predicted total impervious surface areas were compared to SLEUTH model output, at the county-aggregated spatial scale. For most counties, SLEUTH generated substantially higher number of impervious pixels. An annual urban growth rate of 6.24% for SLEUTH model was much higher than the population-based approach (1.33%), suggesting a large discrepancy between these two modelling approaches. The SLEUTH simulation model, although achieved high accuracy for 2014 validation, may have over-predicted urban growth for our study area. For population-predicted impervious surface area, we further developed a lookup table approach to integrate SLEUTH out and generated spatially explicit urban map for 2050. This lookup table approach has high potential to integrate population-predicted and SLEUTH-predicted urban landscape, especially when future population can be predicted with reasonable accuracy.en_US
dc.format.mediumETDen_US
dc.publisherVirginia Techen_US
dc.rightsIn Copyrighten
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/en
dc.subjecturban simulation modelen_US
dc.subjectSLEUTHen_US
dc.subjectland use and land coveren_US
dc.subjectpopulation projectionen_US
dc.titleSimulating urban growth for Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area by coupling SLEUTH model and population projectionen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.departmentGeographyen_US
dc.description.degreeMaster of Scienceen_US
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Scienceen_US
thesis.degree.levelmastersen_US
thesis.degree.grantorVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State Universityen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGeographyen_US
dc.contributor.committeechairShao, Yangen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberPrisley, Stephen P.en_US
dc.contributor.committeememberCampbell, James B.en_US


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