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dc.contributor.authorHafer, R. W.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2017-03-10T21:55:39Z
dc.date.available2017-03-10T21:55:39Z
dc.date.issued1979en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/76551
dc.description.abstractThis dissertation presents several empirical tests to measure the relative abilities of alternative models in capturing the unobservable process by which economic individuals may form expectations of future inflation. Three empirical representations of the inflation expectations process are tested: an autoregressive model which uses only past inflation data; a rational expectations model which utilizes the structural economic relationships in the economy (excluding past inflation); and a general model which exploits both the information sets just described. These competing approaches are each subjected to tests for rationality and predictive accuracy. The rationality tests employed in this study are the breakpoint test suggested by Sargent and the incorporation of each model's inflation predictions into an analysis of the Fisher equation. To gauge the predictive accuracy of each model, post-sample extrapolations were generated and compared by means of the root-mean-squared error and Theil inequality coefficient. The outcome of these various tests provides support to the contention that, for an individual attempting to obtain optimal (error minimizing) forecasts of future inflation would select the relatively simple autoregressive model over the rational expectations or general approaches. In three out of four tests presented, the autoregressive model performed as well if not better than its more informational intensive competitors.en
dc.format.extentiv, 126 leavesen_US
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State Universityen_US
dc.relation.isformatofOCLC# 5201117
dc.rightsThe authors of the theses and dissertations are the copyright owners. Virginia Techs Digital Library and Archives has their permission to store and provide access to these works.en_US
dc.subject.lccLD5655.V856 1979.H33en_US
dc.subject.lcshMacroeconomicsen_US
dc.subject.lcshEconomics -- Psychological aspectsen_US
dc.subject.lcshEconomic forecastingen_US
dc.titleAn empirical comparison of autoregressive and rational models of price expectationsen_US
dc.typeDissertationen_US
dc.contributor.departmentEconomicsen_US
dc.description.degreePh. D.en_US
thesis.degree.namePh. D.en_US
thesis.degree.leveldoctoralen_US
thesis.degree.grantorVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State Universityen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineEconomicsen_US
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten_US


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