Simulating Community Dynamics in Rural-Urban Water Transfers through an Integrated Agent-Based and Input-Output Modeling Approach

Abstract

As societal water demands grow and suitable water supplies decline, water users are increasingly in conflict over this limited resource. In regions where water is sufficiently limited, water is often already fully allocated, leaving reallocation between users as the most viable solution to meet new water demands. Agriculture is the largest water consumer, making it a widespread target for reallocation. Urban areas often seek to purchase water rights from nearby rural farmers and transfer these water allocations out of the rural area. The water-exporting rural community typically experiences not only the loss of water, but also jobs, economic output, and population. Although rural-urban water transfers are an increasingly common mechanism of water reallocation, the role of social dynamics in these conflicts is underexplored. Our research aims to fill this gap by addressing two key questions: (1) How does the sensitivity of rural water rights holders to social standing and the collective good influence the dynamics of rural-urban water transfers over time? and (2) How do rural community payments from urban water buyers influence these transfer dynamics? We propose a new modeling framework, built on a coupled agent-based model and input-output economic model, that includes enhanced community features to explore how social aspects shape rural-urban water transfers. We demonstrate the capabilities of our modeling framework through the case of the San Luis Valley in Colorado, US, an agricultural region that has been targeted by urban areas despite significant local opposition. Our modeling framework yields insights that expand our fundamental understanding of the complex dynamics involved in rural-urban water transfers and thereby better inform water management.