Proactive Decision Support Tools for National Park and Non-Traditional Agencies in Solving Traffic-Related Problems

Abstract

Transportation Engineers have recently begun to incorporate statistical and machine learning approaches to solving difficult problems, mainly due to the vast quantities of data collected that is stochastic (sensors, video, and human collected). In transportation engineering, a transportation system is often denoted by jurisdiction boundaries and evaluated as such. However, it is ultimately defined by the consideration of the analyst in trying to answer the question of interest. In this dissertation, a transportation system located in Jackson, Wyoming under the jurisdiction of the Grand Teton National Park and recognized as the Moose-Wilson Corridor is evaluated to identify transportation-related factors that influence its operational performance. The evaluation considers its unique prevalent conditions and takes into account future management strategies. The dissertation accomplishes this by detailing four distinct aspects in individual chapters; each chapter is a standalone manuscript with detailed introduction, purpose, literature review, findings, and conclusion. Chapter 1 provides a general introduction and provides a summary of Chapters 2 – 6. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluating the operational performance of the Moose-Wilson Corridor's entrance station, where queueing performance and arrival and probability mass functions of the vehicle arrival rates are determined. Chapter 3 focuses on the evaluation of a parking system within the Moose-Wilson Corridor in a popular attraction known as the Laurance S. Rockefeller Preserve, in which the system's operational performance is evaluated, and a probability mass function under different arrival and service rates are provided. Chapter 4 provides a data science approach to predicting the probability of vehicles stopping along the Moose-Wilson Corridor. The approach is a machine learning classification methodology known as "decision tree." In this study, probabilities of stopping at attractions are predicted based on GPS tracking data that include entrance location, time of day and stopping at attractions. Chapter 5 considers many of the previous findings, discusses and presents a developed tool which utilizes a Bayesian methodology to determine the posterior distributions of observed arrival rates and service rates which serve as bounds and inputs to an Agent-Based Model. The Agent-Based Model represents the Moose-Wilson Corridor under prevailing conditions and considers some of the primary operational changes in Grand Teton National Park's comprehensive management plan for the Moose-Wilson Corridor. The implementation of an Agent-Based Model provides a flexible platform to model multiple aspects unique to a National Park, including visitor behavior and its interaction with wildlife. Lastly, Chapter 6 summarizes and concludes the dissertation.