Predictive reliabilities for electronic components

Abstract

A reliability model to study the behavior of an electronic component subject to several failure mechanisms ls developed. The mechanisms considered for the analysis are of degradation type where the number of defects for a mechanism increases with time, eventually causing the failure of the component. The failure pattern of the component subject to a single mechanism · with given initial and final number of defects is modelled as a pure birth process. Failure time for this mechanism is expressed as the first passage time of the birth process to state k from initial state l. First passage time distribution is derived for different forms of transition rates. When the initial and final states of the process are considered as random, the failure time is expressed as the mixture distribution obtained from the conditional first passage time distributions. The mixture distributions are well represented by a Weibull distribution. A computer program is developed to compute the parameters of the Weibull distribution iteratively by the method of matching moments. The approximation results are statistically validated.

The results for a single mechanism are extended to the case of multiple mechanisms. Extreme·value theory and competing risk theory are applied to analyze the simultaneous effects of multiple mechanisms. lt is shown that the aggregate failure time distribution has a Weibull form for both the theories. The model explains the influence of physical and chemical properties of the component and the operating conditions on the failure times. It can be used for accelerated testing and for lncorporating reliability at product design stage.