Simonit, S.Perrings, C.2016-04-192016-04-192005ICES Journal of Marine Science 62(3): 483-4921054-3139http://hdl.handle.net/10919/66184Metadata only recordWe consider the potential for using prices as leading indicators of changes in stocks and yields in the freshwater capture fishery in Lake Victoria. Fertilizer run-off from agricultural land is a major cause of nutrient loading, along with soil erosion, atmospheric deposition, and point pollution from industrial and domestic affluent. The interactions between fertilizer applications, water quality, fish stocks, and yields are modelled in order to predict the effect of changes in the price of fertilizers on the fishery. The fishery model includes a measure of Chl a concentration (a proxy for phytoplankton density). The consequences of changes in Chl a concentration for fish stocks are modelled using Ecopath. We show that fertilizer prices are effective leading indicators of changes in fish biomass and yield.text/plainen-USIn CopyrightSocial impactsEcosystem managementHumid zonesSustainable developmentEcosystemBiodiversityEconomic analysesSoil erosionEnvironmental impactsWaterSoilModelingEconomic impactsHabitat destructionResource management toolsNatural resource managementEcological-economic modelingFisheriesLand-water interactionsEcosystem GovernanceAbstractCopyright 2005 by International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Published by Elsevier Ltd.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.01.012