McDowell, R. W.Simpson, Z. P.Doscher, C.Steinfurth, K.Mott, JoshuaMargenot, A. J.Appelhans, S. C.Elledge, A. E.Thornton, C. M.Moore, P. A.Blackwell, M. S. A.Cade-Menun, B. J.Ros, M. B. H.Pavinato, P. S.Zavattaro, L.Soltangheisi, A.Zhang, T. Q.Haygarth, P. M.Burkitt, L.Fenton, O.2025-10-292025-10-292025-092590-3322https://hdl.handle.net/10919/138817Excess phosphorus in agricultural soils threatens freshwater quality and long-term fertilizer security. Globally, 27% of soils exceed crop phosphorus needs (plant-available soil test phosphorus as Olsen phosphorus), contributing to runoff that degrades water quality for 3 billion people. Reducing surplus phosphorus through fertilizer cessation (“drawdown”) is low cost, but rates remain poorly understood. We analyzed ∼12,700 observations from 225 trials in 21 countries to model the time for Olsen phosphorus to reach optimal agronomic thresholds across major crops and improved grassland. Drawdown rates ranged from 9 (Oceania and Asia) to 14 (Europe) years. Our model suggests that global drawdown could save ∼190,430 kt of fertilizer, 10 times the annual global use. These findings highlight opportunities to maintain yields, improve water quality, and deliver economic benefits, supporting better-informed agricultural practice and environmental polices worldwide.application/pdfenPublic Domain (U.S.)Article - Refereedhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101448Mott, Joshua [0000-0002-5598-5383]