Center for Geospatial Information Technology (CGIT)

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Browsing Center for Geospatial Information Technology (CGIT) by Author "Goedert, Nicholas"

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    Asymmetries in Potential for Partisan Gerrymandering
    Goedert, Nicholas; Hildebrand, Robert; Travis, Laurel; Pierson, Matthew (2024)
    This paper investigates the effectiveness of potential partisan gerrymandering of the U.S. House of Representatives across a range of states. We use a heuristic algorithm to generate district maps that optimize for multiple objectives, including compactness, partisan benefit, and competitiveness. While partisan gerrymandering is highly effective for both sides, we find that the majority of states are moderately biased toward Republicans when optimized for either compactness or partisan benefit, meaning that Republican gerrymanders have the potential to be more effective. However, we also find that more densely populated and more heavily Hispanic states show less Republican bias or even Democratic bias. Additionally, we find that in almost all cases we can generate reasonably compact maps with very little sacrifice to partisan objectives through a mixed objective function. This suggests that there is a strong potential for stealth partisan gerrymanders that are both compact and beneficial to one party. Nationwide, partisan gerrymandering is capable of swinging over one hundred seats in the U.S. House, even when compact districts are simultaneously sought.
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    Black Representation and District Compactness in Southern Congressional Districts
    Goedert, Nicholas; Hildebrand, Robert; Pierson, Matthew; Travis, Laurel; Fravel, Jamie (2024-04-01)
    This paper explores the assumed trade-off between district compactness and Black representation in legislative districts in the American South. We perform analysis both on heuristically generated districts using current US demographics, and on historical congressional maps since the 1970s. Computations are performed using an iterative heuristic to find feasible solutions guided by multiple objectives. We find that while the trade-off has been strongly observed historically, it is possible to effectively address both goals simultaneously in most cases. We are able to demonstrate maps substantially superior to the present enacted maps on both dimensions in at least seven of nine states analyzed. Nevertheless, the trade-off appears more necessary in states with larger and/or more heavily rural Black populations than in more urbanized states, where the drawing of compact Blackinfluence districts is easier.