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Browsing by Author "Butler, Patrick"

Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
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    ‘Beating the news’ with EMBERS: Forecasting Civil Unrest using Open Source Indicators
    Ramakrishnan, Naren; Butler, Patrick; Self, Nathan; Khandpur, Rupinder P.; Saraf, Parang; Wang, Wei; Cadena, Jose; Vullikanti, Anil Kumar S.; Korkmaz, Gizem; Kuhlman, Christopher J.; Marathe, Achla; Zhao, Liang; Ting, Hua; Huang, Bert; Srinivasan, Aravind; Trinh, Khoa; Getoor, Lise; Katz, Graham; Doyle, Andy; Ackermann, Chris; Zavorin, Ilya; Ford, Jim; Summers, Kristen; Fayed, Youssef; Arredondo, Jaime; Gupta, Dipak; Mares, David; Muthia, Sathappan; Chen, Feng; Lu, Chang-Tien (2014)
    We describe the design, implementation, and evaluation of EMBERS, an automated, 24x7 continuous system for forecasting civil unrest across 10 countries of Latin America using open source indicators such as tweets, news sources, blogs, economic indicators, and other data sources. Unlike retrospective studies, EMBERS has been making forecasts into the future since Nov 2012 which have been (and continue to be) evaluated by an independent T&E team (MITRE). Of note, EMBERS has successfully forecast the uptick and downtick of incidents during the June 2013 protests in Brazil. We outline the system architecture of EMBERS, individual models that leverage specific data sources, and a fusion and suppression engine that supports trading off specific evaluation criteria. EMBERS also provides an audit trail interface that enables the investigation of why specific predictions were made along with the data utilized for forecasting. Through numerous evaluations, we demonstrate the superiority of EMBERS over baserate methods and its capability to forecast significant societal happenings.
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    Monitoring Disease Trends using Hospital Traffic Data from High Resolution Satellite Imagery: A Feasibility Study
    Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Butler, Patrick; Ramakrishnan, Naren; Mekaru, Sumiko R.; Brownstein, John S. (Nature, 2015-03-13)
    Challenges with alternative data sources for disease surveillance include differentiating the signal from the noise, and obtaining information from data constrained settings. For the latter, events such as increases in hospital traffic could serve as early indicators of social disruption resulting from disease. In this study, we evaluate the feasibility of using hospital parking lot traffic data extracted from high-resolution satellite imagery to augment public health disease surveillance in Chile, Argentina and Mexico. We used archived satellite imagery collected from January 2010 to May 2013 and data on the incidence of respiratory virus illnesses from the Pan American Health Organization as a reference. We developed dynamical Elastic Net multivariable linear regression models to estimate the incidence of respiratory virus illnesses using hospital traffic and assessed how to minimize the effects of noise on the models. We noted that predictions based on models fitted using a sample of observations were better. The results were consistent across countries with selected models having reasonably low normalized root-mean-squared errors and high correlations for both the fits and predictions. The observations from this study suggest that if properly procured and combined with other information, this data source could be useful for monitoring disease trends.
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    On Utilization of Contributory Storage in Desktop Grids
    Miller, Chreston; Butler, Patrick; Shah, Ankur; Butt, Ali R. (Department of Computer Science, Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University, 2007)
    The availability of desktop grids and shared computing platforms has popularized the use of contributory resources, such as desktops, as computing substrates for a variety of applications. However, addressing the exponentially growing storage demands of applications, especially in a contributory environment, remains a challenging research problem. In this report, we propose a transparent distributed storage system that harnesses the storage contributed by grid participants arranged in a peer-to-peer network to yield a scalable, robust, and self-organizing system. The novelty of our work lies in (i) design simplicity to facilitate actual use; (ii) support for easy integration with grid platforms; (iii) ingenious use of striping and error coding techniques to support very large data files; and (iv) the use of multicast techniques for data replication. Experimental results through simulations and an actual implementation show that our system can provide reliable and efficient storage with large file support for desktop grid applications.
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    Spatio-Temporal Storytelling on Twitter
    Dos Santos Jr, Raimundo F.; Shah, Sumit; Chen, Feng; Boedihardjo, Arnold P.; Butler, Patrick; Lu, Chang-Tien; Ramakrishnan, Naren (Department of Computer Science, Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University, 2013-12-16)
    Social media, e.g.,Twitter, have provided us an unprecedented opportunity to observe events un-folding in real-time. The rapid pace at which situations play out on social media necessitates new tools for capturing and summarizing the spatio-temporal progression of events. This technical report describes methods for generating dynamic real-world storylines from Twitter Sources and shares the results of related experiments.