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Browsing by Author "Carlson, Colin J."

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change
    Ryan, Sadie J.; Carlson, Colin J.; Mordecai, Erin A.; Johnson, Leah R. (PLOS, 2019-03)
    Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses, especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0 degrees C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4 degrees C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.
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    A global parasite conservation plan
    Carlson, Colin J.; Hopkins, Skylar R.; Bell, Kayce C.; Dona, Jorge; Godfrey, Stephanie S.; Kwak, Mackenzie L.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Moir, Melinda L.; Speer, Kelly A.; Strona, Giovanni; Torchin, Mark; Wood, Chelsea L. (2020-10)
    Found throughout the tree of life and in every ecosystem, parasites are some of the most diverse, ecologically important animals on Earth-but in almost all cases, the least protected by wildlife or ecosystem conservation efforts. For decades, ecologists have been calling for research to understand parasites' important ecological role, and increasingly, to protect as many species from extinction as possible. However, most conservationists still work within priority systems for funding and effort that exclude or ignore parasites, or treat parasites as an obstacle to be overcome. Our working group identified 12 goals for the next decade that could advance parasite biodiversity conservation through an ambitious mix of research, advocacy, and management.
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    Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050
    Ryan, Sadie J.; Carlson, Colin J.; Tesla, Blanka; Bonds, Matthew H.; Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Mordecai, Erin A.; Johnson, Leah R.; Murdock, Courtney C. (2020-10-09)
    In the aftermath of the 2015 pandemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), concerns over links between climate change and emerging arboviruses have become more pressing. Given the potential that much of the world might remain at risk from the virus, we used a previously established temperature-dependent transmission model for ZIKV to project climate change impacts on transmission suitability risk by mid-century (a generation into the future). Based on these model predictions, in the worst-case scenario, over 1.3 billion new people could face suitable transmission temperatures for ZIKV by 2050. The next generation will face substantially increased ZIKV transmission temperature suitability in North America and Europe, where naive populations might be particularly vulnerable. Mitigating climate change even to moderate emissions scenarios could significantly reduce global expansion of climates suitable for ZIKV transmission, potentially protecting around 200 million people. Given these suitability risk projections, we suggest an increased priority on research establishing the immune history of vulnerable populations, modeling when and where the next ZIKV outbreak might occur, evaluating the efficacy of conventional and novel intervention measures, and increasing surveillance efforts to prevent further expansion of ZIKV.