Browsing by Author "El Moustaid, Fadoua"

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    Both consumptive and non-consumptive effects of predators impact mosquito populations and have implications for disease transmission
    Russell, Marie C.; Herzog, Catherine M.; Gajewski, Zachary; Ramsay, Chloe; El Moustaid, Fadoua; Evans, Michelle, V; Desai, Trishna; Gottdenker, Nicole L.; Hermann, Sara L.; Power, Alison G.; McCall, Andrew C. (Elife Sciences, 2022-01-19)
    eLife digest Mosquitoes are often referred to as the deadliest animals on earth because some species spread malaria, West Nile virus or other dangerous diseases when they bite humans and other animals. Adult mosquitoes fly to streams, ponds and other freshwater environments to lay their eggs. When the eggs hatch, the young mosquitoes live in the water until they are ready to grow wings and transform into adults. In the water, the young mosquitoes are particularly vulnerable to being eaten by dragonfly larvae, fish and other predators. When adult females are choosing where to lay their eggs, they can use their sense of smell to detect these predators and attempt to avoid them. Along with eating the mosquitoes, the predators may also reduce mosquito populations in other ways. For example, predators can disrupt feeding among young mosquitoes, which may affect the time that it takes for them to grow into adults or the size of their bodies once they reach the adult stage. Although the impacts of different predators have been tested separately in multiple settings, the overall effects of predators on the ability of mosquitoes to spread diseases to humans remain unclear. To address this question, Russell, Herzog et al. used an approach called meta-analysis on data from previous studies. The analysis found that along with increasing the death rates of mosquitoes, the presence of predators also leads to a reduction in the body size of those mosquitoes that survive, causing them to have shorter lifespans and fewer offspring. Russell, Herzog et al. found that one type of mosquito known as Culex - which carries West Nile virus - avoided laying its eggs near predators. During droughts, increased predation in streams, ponds and other aquatic environments may lead adult female Culex mosquitoes to lay their eggs closer to residential areas with fewer predators. Russell, Herzog et al. propose that this may be one reason why outbreaks of West Nile virus in humans are more likely to occur during droughts. In the future, these findings may help researchers to predict outbreaks of West Nile virus, malaria and other diseases carried by mosquitoes more accurately. Furthermore, the work of Russell, Herzog et al. provides examples of mosquito predators that could be used as biocontrol agents to decrease numbers of mosquitoes in certain regions. Predator-prey interactions influence prey traits through both consumptive and non-consumptive effects, and variation in these traits can shape vector-borne disease dynamics. Meta-analysis methods were employed to generate predation effect sizes by different categories of predators and mosquito prey. This analysis showed that multiple families of aquatic predators are effective in consumptively reducing mosquito survival, and that the survival of Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex mosquitoes is negatively impacted by consumptive effects of predators. Mosquito larval size was found to play a more important role in explaining the heterogeneity of consumptive effects from predators than mosquito genus. Mosquito survival and body size were reduced by non-consumptive effects of predators, but development time was not significantly impacted. In addition, Culex vectors demonstrated predator avoidance behavior during oviposition. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that predators limit disease transmission by reducing both vector survival and vector size, and that associations between drought and human West Nile virus cases could be driven by the vector behavior of predator avoidance during oviposition. These findings are likely to be useful to infectious disease modelers who rely on vector traits as predictors of transmission.
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    Linked within-host and between-host models and data for infectious diseases: a systematic review
    Childs, Lauren M.; El Moustaid, Fadoua; Gajewski, Zachary J.; Kadelka, Sarah; Nikin-Beers, Ryan; Smith, John W. Jr.; Walker, Melody; Johnson, Leah R. (PeerJ, 2019-06-19)
    The observed dynamics of infectious diseases are driven by processes across multiple scales. Here we focus on two: within-host, that is, how an infection progresses inside a single individual (for instance viral and immune dynamics), and between-host, that is, how the infection is transmitted between multiple individuals of a host population. The dynamics of each of these may be influenced by the other, particularly across evolutionary time. Thus understanding each of these scales, and the links between them, is necessary for a holistic understanding of the spread of infectious diseases. One approach to combining these scales is through mathematical modeling. We conducted a systematic review of the published literature on multi-scale mathematical models of disease transmission (as defined by combining within-host and between-host scales) to determine the extent to which mathematical models are being used to understand across-scale transmission, and the extent to which these models are being confronted with data. Following the PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews, we identified 24 of 197 qualifying papers across 30 years that include both linked models at the within and between host scales and that used data to parameterize/calibrate models. We find that the approach that incorporates both modeling with data is under-utilized, if increasing. This highlights the need for better communication and collaboration between modelers and empiricists to build well-calibrated models that both improve understanding and may be used for prediction.
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    Modeling Temperature Effects on Population Density of the Dengue Mosquito Aedes aegypti
    El Moustaid, Fadoua; Johnson, Leah R. (MDPI, 2019-11-07)
    Mosquito density plays an important role in the spread of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue and Zika. While it remains very challenging to estimate the density of mosquitoes, modelers have tried different methods to represent it in mathematical models. The goal of this paper is to investigate the various ways mosquito density has been quantified, as well as to propose a dynamical system model that includes the details of mosquito life stages leading to the adult population. We first discuss the mosquito traits involved in determining mosquito density, focusing on those that are temperature dependent. We evaluate different forms of models for mosquito densities based on these traits and explore their dynamics as temperature varies. Finally, we compare the predictions of the models to observations of Aedes aegypti abundances over time in Vitòria, Brazil. Our results indicate that the four models exhibit qualitatively and quantitatively different behaviors when forced by temperature, but that all seem reasonably consistent with observed abundance data.
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    Modeling Temperature Effects on Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics
    El Moustaid, Fadoua (Virginia Tech, 2019-09-09)
    Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) cause significant harm to humans, plants, and animals worldwide. For instance, VBDs are very difficult to manage, as they are governed by complex interactions. VBD transmission depends on the pathogen itself, vector-host movement, and environmental conditions. Mosquito-borne diseases are a perfect example of how all these factors contribute to changes in VBD dynamics. Although vectors are highly sensitive to climate, modeling studies tend to ignore climate effects. Here, I am interested in the arthropod small vectors that are sensitive to climate factors such as temperature, precipitation, and drought. In particular, I am looking at the effect of temperature on vector traits for two VBDs, namely, dengue, caused by a virus that infects humans and bluetongue disease, caused by a virus that infects ruminants. First, I collect data on mosquito traits' response to temperature changes, this includes adult traits as well as juvenile traits. Next, I use these traits to model mosquito density, and then I incorporate the density into our mathematical models to investigate the effect it has on the basic reproductive ratio R0, a measure of how contagious the disease is. I use R0 to determine disease risk. For dengue, my results show that using mosquito life stage traits response to temperature improves our vector density approximation and disease risk estimates. For bluetongue, I use midge traits response to temperature to show that the suitable temperature for bluetongue risk is between 21.5 °C and 30.7 °C. These results can inform future control and prevention strategies.
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    Photorespiration and Rate Synchronization in a Phototroph-Heterotroph Microbial Consortium
    El Moustaid, Fadoua; Carlson, Ross P.; Villa, Federica; Klapper, Isaac (MDPI, 2017-03-02)
    The process of oxygenic photosynthesis is robust and ubiquitous, relying centrally on input of light, carbon dioxide, and water, which in many environments are all abundantly available, and from which are produced, principally, oxygen and reduced organic carbon. However, photosynthetic machinery can be conflicted by the simultaneous presence of carbon dioxide and oxygen through a process sometimes called photorespiration. We present here a model of phototrophy, including competition for RuBisCO binding sites between oxygen and carbon dioxide, in a chemostat-based microbial population. The model connects to the idea of metabolic pathways to track carbon and degree of reduction through the system. We find decomposition of kinetics into elementary flux modes a mathematically natural way to study synchronization of mismatched rates of photon input and chemostat turnover. In the single species case, though total biomass is reduced by photorespiration, protection from excess light exposures and its consequences (oxidative and redox stress) may result. We also find the possibility that a consortium of phototrophs with heterotrophs can recycle photorespiration byproduct into increased biomass at the cost of increase in oxidative product (here, oxygen).
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    Predicting temperature-dependent transmission suitability of bluetongue virus in livestock
    El Moustaid, Fadoua; Thornton, Zorian; Slamani, Hani; Ryan, Sadie J.; Johnson, Leah R. (2021-07-30)
    The transmission of vector-borne diseases is governed by complex factors including pathogen characteristics, vector–host interactions, and environmental conditions. Temperature is a major driver for many vector-borne diseases including Bluetongue viral (BTV) disease, a midge-borne febrile disease of ruminants, notably livestock, whose etiology ranges from mild or asymptomatic to rapidly fatal, thus threatening animal agriculture and the economy of affected countries. Using modeling tools, we seek to predict where the transmission can occur based on suitable temperatures for BTV. We fit thermal performance curves to temperature-sensitive midge life-history traits, using a Bayesian approach. We incorporate these curves into S(T), a transmission suitability metric derived from the disease’s basic reproductive number, 𝑅0. This suitability metric encompasses all components that are known to be temperature-dependent. We use trait responses for two species of key midge vectors, Culicoides sonorensis and Culicoides variipennis present in North America. Our results show that outbreaks of BTV are more likely between 15∘ C and 34∘ C, with predicted peak transmission risk at 26 ∘ C. The greatest uncertainty in S(T) is associated with the following: the uncertainty in mortality and fecundity of midges near optimal temperature for transmission; midges’ probability of becoming infectious post-infection at the lower edge of the thermal range; and the biting rate together with vector competence at the higher edge of the thermal range. We compare three model formulations and show that incorporating thermal curves into all three leads to similar BTV risk predictions. To demonstrate the utility of this modeling approach, we created global suitability maps indicating the areas at high and long-term risk of BTV transmission, to assess risk and to anticipate potential locations of disease establishment.
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    The Role of Vector Trait Variation in Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics
    Cator, Lauren J.; Johnson, Leah R.; Mordecai, Erin A.; El Moustaid, Fadoua; Smallwood, Thomas R. C.; LaDeau, Shannon L.; Johansson, Michael A.; Hudson, Peter J.; Boots, Michael; Thomas, Matthew B.; Power, Alison G.; Pawar, Samraat (2020-07-10)
    Many important endemic and emerging diseases are transmitted by vectors that are biting arthropods. The functional traits of vectors can affect pathogen transmission rates directly and also through their effect on vector population dynamics. Increasing empirical evidence shows that vector traits vary significantly across individuals, populations, and environmental conditions, and at time scales relevant to disease transmission dynamics. Here, we review empirical evidence for variation in vector traits and how this trait variation is currently incorporated into mathematical models of vector-borne disease transmission. We argue that mechanistically incorporating trait variation into these models, by explicitly capturing its effects on vector fitness and abundance, can improve the reliability of their predictions in a changing world. We provide a conceptual framework for incorporating trait variation into vector-borne disease transmission models, and highlight key empirical and theoretical challenges. This framework provides a means to conceptualize how traits can be incorporated in vector borne disease systems, and identifies key areas in which trait variation can be explored. Determining when and to what extent it is important to incorporate trait variation into vector borne disease models remains an important, outstanding question.
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    Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23 degrees C and 26 degrees C
    Shocket, Marta S.; Verwillow, Anna B.; Numazu, Mailo G.; Slamani, Hani; Cohen, Jeremy M.; El Moustaid, Fadoua; Rohr, Jason R.; Johnson, Leah R.; Mordecai, Erin A. (2020-09-15)
    The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector-pathogen pairs of mosquitoes (Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefascsiatus, Cx. tarsalis, and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23-26 degrees C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24 degrees C, matching model-predicted optima (24-25 degrees C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.