VTechWorks Repository :: Browsing by Author "Goedert, Nicholas"

Browsing by Author "Goedert, Nicholas"

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Assessing U.S. Senators' Response to a Competitive Primary Challenge with Increased Partisan Roll Call Voting
Tarkenton, William Payne (Virginia Tech, 2021-06-08)
Much of the political punditry in the United States discusses the notion that facing a primary election results in legislators voting in a more partisan fashion in the legislature. A common refrain of this analysis is that facing the primary election constituency (Fenno 1978) or even the threat of facing the primary election constituency causes the senator to vote with the ideological extremes of the party in following sessions of congress. The literature on congressional elections has examined this area of research as it applies to the U.S. House, but few studies fully examine the impact of primary elections on roll call voting in the Senate. This study examines Senate primary elections to see how facing a primary, specifically a competitive primary, influences how a senator votes in the legislature in the first term following the election. This study specifically asks if senators who face a competitive primary challenge and win reelection vote with their party more often in subsequent congresses than senators who do not face a competitive primary challenge. Using OLS regressions and a number of control variables shown in the literature to impact roll call voting patterns, I examine the percentage of the vote that a senator received in her primary election compared to her party unity score in the Senate after the election. While my models demonstrate that facing a competitive primary correlates with a senator having a higher party unity score than senators who do not face a competitive primary, in all of my models the coefficient on this variable is not statistically significant. However, serving in the majority party and being elected in certain election years did have a statistically significant impact on a senator's partisan voting behavior. When testing an interaction effect between facing a competitive primary and serving in the majority party after the election, I also did not find a significant relationship between the interaction and a senator's change in party unity score. These findings add to our understanding of congressional elections by exploring an under-studied aspect of elections in the United States, and future research that adapts and refines the methodology of this study could further develop these results.
Asymmetries in Potential for Partisan Gerrymandering
Goedert, Nicholas; Hildebrand, Robert; Travis, Laurel; Pierson, Matthew (2024)
This paper investigates the effectiveness of potential partisan gerrymandering of the U.S. House of Representatives across a range of states. We use a heuristic algorithm to generate district maps that optimize for multiple objectives, including compactness, partisan benefit, and competitiveness. While partisan gerrymandering is highly effective for both sides, we find that the majority of states are moderately biased toward Republicans when optimized for either compactness or partisan benefit, meaning that Republican gerrymanders have the potential to be more effective. However, we also find that more densely populated and more heavily Hispanic states show less Republican bias or even Democratic bias. Additionally, we find that in almost all cases we can generate reasonably compact maps with very little sacrifice to partisan objectives through a mixed objective function. This suggests that there is a strong potential for stealth partisan gerrymanders that are both compact and beneficial to one party. Nationwide, partisan gerrymandering is capable of swinging over one hundred seats in the U.S. House, even when compact districts are simultaneously sought.
Democratic incumbent resilience in the post-1980 Senate
Goedert, Nicholas (Sage, 2018-10-12)
In the period since the Reagan revolution that disrupted decades of Democratic control of the United States Senate, Democratic senators have proved remarkably resilient when running for reelection. Over the past 600 Senate elections since 1980, Republican incumbents have been defeated at more than twice the rate of Democrats, but won open seat elections at a significantly higher rate. This partisan disparity also appears in incumbent vote share, and is statistically and substantively robust to a range of model specifications accounting for existing theories. A series of explanations drawn from existing research explored in this paper fail to explain this trend, suggesting the need for future research targeting partisan differences in perceptions of parties in Senate campaigns.
Foucauldian Micropolitics and the Evolution of Party Polarization: Diverging Discourses in America's Two-Party System
Schoonover, Kyle Michael (Virginia Tech, 2020-06-08)
Much attention has been paid to the growing level of polarization at both the party level and within the American public, particularly since the late 1970's. Many scholars will either argue that elite polarization is representative of pre-existing, strongly felt political beliefs in the electorate, or that voters act on the basis of the elite cues they observe in politicians. Scholarship has been lacking, however, a microlevel analysis of the polarization of elite discourse, its motivations, and its effects on the American voter. This study quantifies the divergence in party discourse on particular issues through an analysis of published platforms and presidential candidate convention speeches. By employing Foucauldian theories of micropolitics and biopower, a qualitative case study, critical discourse analyses, and ANES polling data, this study finds that not only have the parties been deploying drastically diverging discourses on issues of biopolitical administration, but this also tends to engender political saliency on issues in which voters were not significantly concerned. There are certainly insidious implications for a representative system of government when parties utilize discourse to manufacture political opinions for their own self-interest. The data herein show that both parties have been guilty of such mobilization tactics within the last forty years.
The Gig is Up: The Disjunction of Gig Economy Labor and the American Welfare State
Work, Nicholas Christopher (Virginia Tech, 2019-06-28)
The gig economy has rapidly become something of a phenomenon in the digital economy today. New firms are quickly being added to this digital market ecosphere and the business model has garnered the attention of the business and investor communities as a new organizational alternative to standard hierarchies. However this new business model also poses substantial problems for its workers, who as independent contractors are not afforded the benefits or rights of the welfare state that are granted to employees. As the gig economy continues to achieve financial success and holds a more prominent place in our labor force, the precarious state of gig labor is becoming an increasingly political problem. This thesis explores the present state of labor in the gig economy by situating it within the context of welfare state scholarship. I examine how the inner mechanics of the gig economy operate, as well as examine the structures of the American welfare state that create this dualist divide between contractors and employees. I argue that welfare state scholarship demonstrates a path by which gig laborers and gig firms can form cross class alliances that can help develop new welfare state policies to improve gig worker conditions and be supported by gig firms themselves.
Inconvenient Voting: Native Americans and The Costs of Early Voting
Chavez, Jason Nathaniel (Virginia Tech, 2020-06-16)
Proponents claim that the convenience of early voting increases voter turnout by reducing the time and effort to vote through expanded opportunities for participation beyond "traditional" in-person voting at polling places on election day. Yet, anecdotal evidence suggests that reforms intended to make the voting process easier do not have the same effect throughout the electorate. Instead, early voting is likely to exacerbate the lack of ability to meaningfully participate in the electoral process for those particularly vulnerable to the costs of voting. Fundamentally, early voting requires access to postal services to receive and return an early ballot by-mail, as well as the ability to travel to an early in-person voting site. The irregular mail delivery operations and long traveling distances common throughout Indian Country suggests that systems of early voting lack viability on reservation lands. This research asks how the costs of voting for Native Americans affects their participation in systems of early voting. To investigate this relationship, I elucidate the social, economic, cultural, political, and geographic factors that render political participation more difficult for Native Americans. By comparing voter turnout in the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections among reservation voters on the Navajo Nation to non-reservation voters in Apache, Navajo, and Coconino counties in Arizona, I find that reservation voters prefer to vote in-person on election day while non-reservation voters prefer to vote early. I also find that early voting turnout among reservation voters increased between 2012 and 2016, however, further analysis demonstrated that turnout was higher in reservation precincts with greater access to postal services. These findings illuminate our knowledge of the convenience of early voting and add to our specific understanding of the factors that affect Native American political participation.
Increasing Polarization of the Youth Vote
Zywiol, Douglas Lawrence Jerome (Virginia Tech, 2021-06-15)
On July 1, 1971, the Twenty-Sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution was ratified which prohibited states from denying citizens who had attained the age of eighteen the right to vote. Having passed 96-0 in the Senate and 401-19 in the House of Representatives, the amendment was widely considered a bipartisan effort with minimal resistance from within the two major political parties. This paper seeks to determine how this largely politically unifying amendment process became so politicized since its passage, including an analysis and comparison of factions who fought against initial passage with those who seek to suppress the youth vote. A historical analysis will look deeper into how those battles were won with the ultimate passage of the amendment. Using a mixed methodology approach including a quantitative analysis of polling data and a qualitative analysis of partisan methods to influence youth voter turnout, the paper shows a trend towards increased politicization that has peaked in today's political landscape. Three specific elections serve as case studies and a lens through which to analyze changes in the law, changes in campaign strategies, changes in rhetoric, and changes in salient issues. Youth engagement is particularly valuable to political leaders and to the nation. In American politics, youth voter turnout has become less of a normative good--in many cases it has been deeply politicized. There is a strong association between specific methods taken by political parties and interest groups and their efforts to mobilize or disincentive youth voter turnout.
Legal Dodges and Subterfuges: Measuring Impact of New Obstacles on Minority Voter Registration
Hitchcock, Jennifer Ann (Virginia Tech, 2020-01-28)
Nearly 350 years of politically sanctioned domination over Blacks ended with the passage of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) in 1965. The federal regulation of voter and election law sought to end retrogressions in representation by intentional or effectual laws. In the VRA's wake, race based politics and policy rooted in White supremacy were curtailed with the gradual representation of communities of color in all levels of government. Shelby County v Holder (2013) obstructed progress by effectively terminating preclearance of legal changes by the federal government. Since Shelby, retrogression of voter registration is once again on the rise. Remedies for retrogression require litigation and matriculation through the courts. This process is time consuming and allows states to conduct election law with minimal interruption until decisions are rendered. Research predating the passage of the Voting Rights Act by Matthews and Prothro indicated that there was a significant correlation between growing minority populations and the severity of election and voter laws. This paper seeks to determine if growing minority populations, in part due to disproportionately large in-migration, correlates with declining voter registration rates. These voter registration rates are due to substantive legal changes and procedural enforcement changes. Retrogression in Black, White, and Latinx is shown in analyzing state voter registration data. Using a time-series multivariate analysis to compare impact on Black, Latinx, and White communities across counties in North Carolina and Alabama, this paper determines that growing minority populations and in-migration do not have consistent statistical significance in explaining declining voter registration rates for Blacks and Latinx communities based on data from the US Census Bureau's American Community Survey and the Alabama and North Carolina Board of Elections. Periodic retrogression in voter registration for the Black community show statistically significant positive associations with increasing population sizes. The Black community experiences retrogression via statistically significant negative associations in national election years, and Black voter registration rates recover in off-year elections. Data indicates that there may be a decrease in representation of larger minority communities that Black communities are able to overcome. There is a strong association between decreasing voter registration rates and larger Latinx communities while the opposite is true of Black communities. The Latinx community voter registration have statistically significant negative associations with increasing population sizes and during national election years, with recovering registration rates in off-year elections.
Supplement versus Supplant: A case study of the effect of internet lottery sales on traditional lottery sales
Gee, Kelly Tsiptsis (Virginia Tech, 2020-06-18)
In 2012, the first state lottery began to sell its product over the internet. The additional digital delivery method represents a new era for a product that has been in the market for over three decades. Permitting a potentially competing delivery method for the same product presents an opportunity to examine the impact internet lottery sales have on traditional lottery sales. The thesis builds on work that explored what motivates policy makers to approve innovative policy solutions, such as a new internet delivery method for lottery sales, and how that decision impacts the overall viability of the existing product. By analyzing sales, profits, and growth rates, I sought to determine if market cannibalization or revenue displacement occurred when the new delivery method was added. My findings show that state lotteries experienced sales growth prior to internet sales. Prior to internet sales, only one state experienced flat gross domestic product growth in the year preceding internet sales, while the five others analyzed experienced declining GDP growth. This suggests that poor economic indicators may have led decision makes to approve a new policy for a product that otherwise was growing to address fiscal stress. After internet sales were introduced, profits and in-person lottery sales at retail locations were higher than before internet sales. Total lottery sales grew in all states that permitted internet sales; however, not all states saw sales growth grow as fast as before internet sales. This suggests that internet lottery sales have a positive impact but might dilute what could have been higher sales growth rates.
What Happened? An Examination of Critical Change in the 2016 Election
Ritterbusch, Jade N. (Virginia Tech, 2023-01-20)
The 2016 U.S. presidential election results surprised many, after several groups many believed to be surefire voters for Democrats based on previous elections voted for Republican Donald Trump (Bump, 2016). Whenever a change takes place in voter patterns, one begins to hear phrases like “critical election” and “political realignment.” A critical election is an election where there is a change of at least 10 percent in partisan alignment, but it does not persist in the next election. A partisan realignment is similar to a critical election, but the change is more durable. This research explores whether the 2016 election can be classified as a critical election and whether and how key groupings of Democratic voters voted in the election compared to their votes in the 2012 election. Using data aggregated at the county level, regression analyses suggest that voters’ education, access to health care, union membership, racial/ethnic diversity, and income level all had statistically significant relationships with votes in both elections and with the change in vote between 2016 and 2012, all were substantively significant or in directions consistent with the presence of a critical election when viewed either from the national or even regional viewpoint. Evidence suggests that 2016 was a critical election.

Browsing by Author "Goedert, Nicholas"

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