Browsing by Author "Ji, Xinde"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    Characterizing the impact of climatic and price anomalies on agrosystems in the northwest United States
    Wurster, Patrick; Maneta, Marco; Begueria, Santiago; Cobourn, Kelly M.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Silverman, Nick; Ewing, Stephanie; Jensco, Kelsey; Gardner, Payton; Kimball, John; Holden, Zachary; Ji, Xinde; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M. (2020-01-15)
    We present an analysis of the sensitivity of three key crops (alfalfa, barley and winter wheat) produced in the northwestern United States to climatic and agricultural market anomalies using widely used standardized indices. Rather than investigating sensitivity of crop yields (production per unit area), we focus on agricultural production (yield * harvested area) anomalies, which captures both variations in yield and the effect of decision-making factors such as allocation of cropping area. We used two well-known standardized precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) indices (SPI and EDDI, respectively) and a standardized crop value index in a multivariate linear regression analysis to determine the characteristic timing and time-scales of precipitation and ETo anomalies that best explain annual crop production anomalies. Since climatic and market factors are standardized, regression coefficients are interpreted as a sensitivity measure that captures the relative effect of climatic and agricultural markets on agricultural production. Results show that alfalfa production was most sensitive climatic anomalies while barley and wheat production was more responsive to crop prices. Sensitivity to precipitation anomalies followed gradients in precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture regimes across the study area where drier and warmer climates were associated with increased sensitivity to climatic anomalies. We found that irrigation decoupled alfalfa production from climatic variability, but the effect of irrigation on decoupling barley production was less clear. Winter wheat production was most sensitive to price anomalies, and alfalfa was least sensitive. Omitting agricultural market conditions and other farmer incentives may introduce biases in our understanding of how drought and climate change impact agricultural production.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Essays on the Economics of Climate Change, Water, and Agriculture
    Ji, Xinde (Virginia Tech, 2018-08-30)
    In an era of global-scale climate change, agricultural production faces a unique challenge due to its reliance on stochastic natural endowments, including temperature, precipitation, and water availability for irrigation. This dissertation presents a series of essays to examine how agricultural producers react and adapt to challenges presented by climate change and scarce irrigation water allocated through the prior appropriation doctrine. The dissertation approaches the problem from three distinct perspectives: institutional differences, climate and water availability, as well as producers' expectation on future endowments. Chapter 2 presents an institutional perspective, in which I investigate how different water allocation mechanisms within the prior appropriation doctrine result in differences in producers' crop allocation decisions. I find that water users in irrigation districts are able to plant more water-intensive crops than farmers outside irrigation districts. Chapter 3 presents the interaction between nature and human systems, in which I examine how the physiological complementarity of temperature and water availability diffuses from crop yield (at the intensive margin) to crop allocation strategies (at the extensive margin). Using a theoretical model I show that the observed complementarity reflects a combination of two mechanisms: yield impact through physiological complementarity, and adaptation response through shifting crop allocation patterns. Using an empirical model, I find that farmers adapt to changing climate conditions by growing more profitable crop mixes when presented with more growing degree-days (GDD), precipitation and groundwater access. Chapter 4 presents a behavioral perspective, in which I test how producers' expectation formation processes lead to short term over-adjustments to weather and water availability fluctuations. Using a fixed-effect regression on lagged weather and water realizations, I find that agricultural producers engage in a combination of cognitive biases, including the availability heuristic and the reinforcement strategy. Adopting these alternative learning mechanisms causes farmers to significantly over-react to more recent fluctuations in weather and water availability when making ex ante acreage and crop allocation decisions.