Browsing by Author "Johnson, Thomas G."
Now showing 1 - 20 of 33
Results Per Page
Sort Options
- Analysis of firm desirability among Virginia's economic development directorsBailey, Thomas M. (Virginia Tech, 1996-08-10)The primary objective of this thesis is to examine the preferences local-level economic development directors possess for different firm characteristics when deciding whether to offer incentives. The thesis examines the different incentives that exist in Virginia and finds that incentive activity has been steadily increasing since 1990. The historical rates of business activity reveal that more non-manufacturing firms locate and expand in metropolitan areas, but manufacturing firms in non-metropolitan areas hire more people per firm. The results indicate that this is not due to an explicit strategy of Virginia's economic development directors. A comparison is made between community economic development goals and important firm characteristics as perceived by local-level economic development directors. A rank-ordered logit model is then used to measure the willingness to pay for various firm characteristics. The results indicate that economic developers are willing to pay for increases in firm investment, increases in wages per employee, and decreases in the probability of a firm closing or moving. Economic developers in Virginia are not willing to pay directly for increases in firm employment, but firm employment is important in its indirect effect on the willingness to pay for wages. The linkages of a firm with a community (community (measured by sales impact, the employment multiplier, and overall employment impact) were insignificant variables for all economic developers.
- An analysis of the relationship between sectoral activity, diversification, and structural change in the economyBasu, Rathin (Virginia Tech, 1990-04-03)The purpose of this study is to analyse the changes, if any, that take place in regional economic structures in the process of diversification, and the roles of sectors in such changes. Input-Output and Structural Path Analysis are used to develop indices that may be used for carrying out the analysis of these issues. A method is also developed for examining the role of linkages with respect to the fundamental structure of production outlined by Simpson and Tsukui. Using these indices and methods, the economic relationships between sectors and the economic structures of six planning districts in Virginia, in addition to the economies of the state of Virginia and the U.S. are analysed and compared. On the basis of these analyses, it is concluded that: (a) The feature of bloc independence found at the level of first order transactions in an economy is diluted at the level of higher order transactions in the metals bloc. However it persists strongly at higher levels of transactions in the nonmetals bloc. (b) The sectors of the metals, nonmetals and services blocs show a proportionate development of linkages irrespective of the degree of diversification of the economy. (c) Contrary to Hirschman's suggestion that complexity of linkages increases with diversification, the results suggest that diversification leads to less complexity in the linkage relationships. (d) The linkages of the agricultural sectors in Virginia are biased towards the services sectors. In the case of the agricultural sectors at the national level, the linkages are biased primarily towards the manufacturing sectors. The implications of these findings for development policy are discussed.
- An analytic model of the food consumption behavior of health-conscious individualsKambhampaty, S. Murthy (Virginia Tech, 1994-05-05)Evidence of changing patterns of food consumption behavior is presented. Previous attempts at explaining these changes are critically reviewed and the need for an alternate approach is identified. A model of consumer behavior in which utility from food consumption is maximized subject to outlay for foods and limits on the consumption of fat, cholesterol, sodium, and/or other food components is proposed. This model yields a system of demands that are functions of prices and outlay as well as the composition of food and limits on the consumption of these components. The structure of this model is examined and restrictions on consumer food demands are derived. The derivation of individual demands based on the proposed model is demonstrated using a specific indirect utility function. Tests of the joint hypotheses that fat or cholesterol consumption determines food demand are defined. The computation of aggregate food demand elasticities with respect to changes in prices and changes in attributes such as fat or cholesterol consumption is demonstrated. Data necessary for estimating the parameters of the model and testing hypotheses are identified. The model proposed in this study allows tests of the hypothesis that food demands are not affected by food composition as well as measurement of these effects
- The closing of AT&T's Fairlawn plant : fiscal and economic impacts in the New River ValleyJohnson, Thomas G.; Kambhampaty, S. Murthy, 1964- (Community Resource Development, 1990-03)
- A comparative study of rural Virginia farm and non farm household labor supplyMwachofi, Ari K. (Virginia Tech, 1995-07-05)This study compares rural Virginia two-adult farm and non-farm household labor supply on two levels: (1) labor market participation and (2) variations in labor supply to the market and to the home. The study develops three models: a selection model, a wage rate model, and a labor supply model. Estimation is performed with data collected from rural Virginia by the Virginia Agricultural Statistical Service in 1989 and by North American Research in 1990. The estimates of the selection equations indicate significant differences in the effects of human capital and unearned income on labor market and wage employment participation of rural Virginia farm and non-farm households.
- A computable general equilibrium analysis of regional impacts of macro-shocks in the 1980SKraybill, David S. (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1988)The purpose of this study is assess the domestic regional impacts of changes in federal fiscal policies and the nation's trade deficit. An attempt is made to fill a gap in the literature of regional economics by providing an explanation of how economic changes at national and international levels are transmitted to regions, and by providing general-equilibrium estimates of the effects of these changes. The level of regional economic activity is assumed to be linked to the federal budget through federal purchases of goods and services, through intergovernmental transfers, and through net transfers to households. Domestic regions are linked to the balance of trade through shifts in exports and imports and through shifts in net income transfers from abroad. An interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is constructed and calibrated for Virginia and the rest of the United States (ROUS). Scenarios approximating federal fiscal policies and the trade deficit during the period 1981-85 are introduced, and the model is solved to obtain a new equilibrium. As a result of these shocks, it is concluded: (a) that the magnitude of sectoral effects differed in Virginia versus ROUS, (b) that in contrast to non-rural sectors, rural sectors in Virginia experienced slower growth in value added, (c) that investment in Virginia and in ROUS increased in response to the net inflow of savings from abroad, but the increase was mitigated by the rise in federal spending, and (d) that a tariff increase on the output of the apparel and textile industry would increase output in that industry in Virginia but would decrease it in other industries if the economy were fully employed.
- An economic analysis of low-input agriculture as a groundwater protection strategyDiebel, Penelope L. (Virginia Tech, 1990-10-15)The unique characteristics of agricultural contamination of groundwater requires an innovative solution, such as the voluntary use of low-input agriculture (LIA) practices. This study was conducted to identify potential barriers to LIA adoption, analyze the effectiveness of agriculture and natural resource policies designed to remove the barriers to LIA adoption, and to determine the effectiveness of LIA practices in reducing the amount of chemicals released into the environment. A survey of Richmond County, Virginia farming operations and attitudes identified current practices, potential LIA practices for the Northern Neck region of Virginia, and perceived barriers to LIA adoption. A 15 year nonlinear mathematical programming model was used to determine optimal farming practices, among 34 low-input and conventional practices, under various agronomic and policy scenarios. Two non-point simulation models, CREAMS and GLEAMS, were used to estimate the nitrogen and chemical loadings of runoff, groundwater, and sediment; and the soil erosion from each of these scenarios. The model shows that yields, labor requirements, and variable costs, individually have a weak influence on the adoption of low-chemical and organic production activities. The price of the organic nitrogen source, poultry litter, was strongly related to the use of LIA practices. The most cost effective policy for reducing Aatrex (atrazine) contributions to groundwater was a one-third reduction in surface application of Aatrex. However, there were many tradeoffs between chemical, nitrogen, and soil contributions to runoff, percolation, and sediment. The only policies which reduced all of these factors were land retirement policies. The tax level required to promote the use of a LIA practice was too high to be politically feasible, and the use of green-manure crops would require a 100 percent annual subsidy of those crops. A proposed base flexibility program caused more intensive use of conventional chemicals because of the limited number of eligible crops. Low-input agriculture has promised reductions in chemical contamination of groundwater and runoff. This study’s results showed that although that is indeed the case, there are tradeoffs between reduced chemical contamination and nitrogen and soil losses which should be considered when examining the cost effectiveness of using LIA practices as a groundwater protection strategy.
- Economic impacts of the Virginia-Maryland Regional College of Veterinary Medicine on the Commonwealth of VirginiaKshirsagar, Shukla (Virginia Tech, 1994-01-15)This thesis estimates the economic impacts of the Virginia-Maryland Regional College of Veterinary Medicine on the Commonwealth of Virginia. Two types of economic impacts were measured. First, the short term impacts were assessed, using the input-output model for the Commonwealth of Virginia. Operating expenditures of the college were entered into the model as a change in final demand and the multiplier effects of these expenditures were measured. Second, long run benefits of the College's research and extension program were estimated using the economic surplus approach. A sample of the college's research and extension projects was selected, and aggregate benefits for the college were evaluated. The study found substantial impacts of the college on the Commonwealth. The total impacts of the college on total output, income, Gross Domestic Product and employment on an annual are $44 million, $26 million, $28 million and 707 respectively. The sample of research projects evaluated, generated net benefits of $12 million. The aggregate benefits of the college are estimated at $48 million. The benefit-cost ratio for the college's research is 3.1.
- Estimation of tax rate elasticities of durable assets: utility maximizing approach using the AIDS modelAbeyratne, Fredrick (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1988)This research originated on the premise that if the response of various tax bases to changes in tax rates is different, local governments can minimize stress on tax bases by placing differential levels of reliance on these tax bases. Therefore, the objective of this research was to estimate and evaluate short-run and long-run, own- and cross-rate elasticities with respect to the following tax bases: real property (commercial, agricultural, and residential), personal property, and machinery and tools. The analytical model was based on demand theory, and a modified linear approximate Almost Ideal Demand System was used to estimate the elasticities. For the estimation of the long-run elasticities, a partial adjustment model was introduced to the demand system. Data covered 36 counties from Virginia, and covered the period 1981-1985. The results indicated that in the short-run, the value of commercial property had a negative elastic response, while agricultural property had a positive inelastic response. Machinery and tools and residential property values were not significantly affected, but personal property indicated a negative inelastic response for changes in tax rates. The long-run results indicated that elasticity figures become more elastic for commercial property, agricultural property, and personal property while for machinery and tools there was a significant inelastic negative response. With reference to cross-rate elasticities, in the short-run, machinery and tools depicted a complementary relationship with all the other tax bases except residential property. Tax rate changes of commercial property had a substitution relationship with agricultural property. In the long-run, however, machinery and tools were significantly impacted only on tax rate changes on personal property. Changes in the tax rate on machinery and tools had a significant complimentary impact on personal property and commercial property. Agricultural property had a significant substitution effect with respect to all the other tax bases except personal property. Hence, the results indicate that different tax bases respond differently to tax rate changes, which local governments can utilize to maintain or increase tax revenues while reducing the tax burden on tax bases which are very sensitive to tax rate changes.
- Evaluation of the importance and magnitude of agricultural maintenance research in the United StatesAdusei, Edward Opoku (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1987)The United States has invested substantial resources in agricultural research since the Morrill and the Hatch Acts. These investments have made American agriculture one of the most productive in the world. Several studies have evaluated U.S. agricultural research. However, few of these studies have attempted to assess the decline in agricultural productivity that would have resulted in the absence of agricultural research. The purpose of this dissertation is to measure the magnitude of agricultural maintenance research currently or recently undertaken to forestall such productivity declines. A two part procedure was used to evaluate the importance of maintenance research in U.S. agriculture. First, questionnaires were mailed to agricultural scientists at the state agricultural experiment stations. The information sought from the scientists included examples of maintenance research and research depreciation, their annual research budgets, and the percentage of their research efforts devoted to maintenance research. The second part of the procedure was to estimate a profit function model to assess the importance of research depreciation in U.S. agriculture and to test the overall length and shape of the research lag. Duality theory was used to obtain the output supply (foodgrains, feedgrains, other crops, hay, livestock, and poultry), input demand (feed, fertilizer, fuel, and labor) equations. The fixed factors included were land, research, extension, education, capital, and breeding stock. Secondary data, from various sources, were used to estimate the equations. The results from the responses to the questionnaire indicate that, on average, the United States devotes roughly a third of total agricultural production research to maintenance research. In addition, there are significant differences in maintenance research among individual commodities. The results from the output supply equations indicated that the impact of agricultural research on agricultural output rises and then declines for some commodities. Also, research depreciation occurs for some agricultural commodities and maintenance research may be required to prevent productivity from declining. However, the results were for the most part, not statistically significant, reducing the strength of the conclusion that can be drawn.
- Evolution of property rights to a natural resource: the oyster grounds of the Chesapeake BaySantopietro, George D. (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1986)Economists take an interest in property rights structures because of their importance in the definition of incentive structures. Fisheries have been analyzed as open access resources because they are not often organized around private property rights. The lack of private property rights though should not be taken to imply unlimited access. There is a need to differentiate between situations in which an institutional structure supports a system of common property rights from those in which access to a resources is truly limited. In this study, a conceptual framework of the structure and workings of property rights to natural resources is developed. This includes a taxonomy of possible property rights structures that differentiates among types and degrees of common and private property. The study then compares and contrasts the differing views in the economics literature on the process by which property rights evolve. This conceptual framework is used to develop a set of research questions that will structure the inquiry about the evolution of property rights to a specific natural resource, the Chesapeake Bay oyster grounds. The conventional and Institutionalist perspectives are related to fishery management policy and their differences assessed. The Institutionalist perspective is shown to raise questions about the historical development of property rights that would not be considered by conventional economists. The resulting research questions are used to explain the economic history of the property rights to the Chesapeake Bay oyster grounds from 1607 to 1986. In Maryland and Virginia certain grounds of the Chesapeake Bay are reserved as a public oyster fishery, but, they have been regulated and managed by the states. In the history of the fishery, those who harvest from the public grounds have continually resisted the extension, or even encouragement of oyster cultivation on private leaseholds. The primary advocates of greater privatization of the bottoms have been economists and biologists. The governments of each state have chosen to maintain the commons in order to provide employment for watermen and to more widely distribute income among them. The results of a survey of Virginia's oyster harvesters are presented. These provide further insights for discussing the role of the watermen in the evolution of property rights, and help to form conclusions on the future of the fishery. This case study leads to the discussion of conclusions on the theory of the economics of property rights.
- The fiscal impacts of use-value taxation in Prince William County, VirginiaFung, Cheryl (Virginia Tech, 1995-11-15)Concern that high property taxation of agricultural land encourages its conversion to nonagricultural uses has led to the adoption of use-value taxation practices. Use-value taxation has had mixed results as a deterrent to the conversion of agricultural and open space land. It has been argued that use-value taxation does not succeed in retaining open space along the rura1-urban fringe (Stocker 1975; Ferguson), and further that such programs may actually lower the community's property tax base significantly (Tiebout; Anderson 1993). Additionally, when land is taxed by its use-value rather than market-value, the local tax base declines curtailing local public services and consequently reducing the attractiveness of the community for residential, commercial and industrial land uses (Abeyratne and Johnson, Bickerdike, Netzer, Oates). This study seeks to determine the fiscal impacts of use-value taxation and incurred and immediate revenues generated by a particular land use project. By comparing the net impact on the property tax rate of different land uses, the effectiveness of land use taxation policies for communities can be determined. The fiscal impact of alternative land uses are measured using The Virginia Impact Projection (VIP) model. The empirical models employed are based on a static cross-sectional econometric analysis of Virginia counties initially developed by Johnson and Keeling and updated for the current analysis using more recent data. The empirical equations are used to construct a fiscal impact assessment (simulation) model. The simulation model allows the comparison of impact and baseline scenarios developed using alternative land uses. It was found that the impact of farmland enrollment in use-value assessment programs is not as large when net impacts are considered rather than sole consideration of the direct property tax revenue changes.
- Grouping and feeding policies for lactating dairy cowsPecsok, Steven R. (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1989)Data from the University of New Hampshire were used to analyze dry matter intake and milk production in Holstein dairy cows. Equations predicting 4% FCM and dry matter intake were derived from this data using ordinary least squares. Days in milk, available nutrients, calving date, and previous period 4% FCM accounted for 90% of the variation in 4% FCM for heifers and 93% of the variation in 4% FCM for cows with previous lactations. Days in milk, acid detergent fiber, calving date, and dry matter intake from the previous 28 day period accounted for 71% of the variation in heifer dry matter intake and 79% of the variation in dry matter intake for the older cows. First period dry matter intake was predicted from first period 4% FCM, cow body weight, and acid detergent fiber of the ration. The lower R² for the first period dry matter intake (41% for heifers and 43% for cows with previous lactations) indicated that dry matter intake for a cow within a lactation was much more predictable than dry matter intake between different cows. Rations were balanced for absolute amounts for simulated lactating cows using NRC requirements and 4% FCM and dry matter intake generated from the prediction equations. Relationships between 4% FCM and nutrient concentrations were determined for heifers and multiparous cows. These recommendations suggest maximum feeding of nutrients to groups producing at least 35 kg of 4% FCM daily. The effect of grouping and individual feeding on 4% FCM were analyzed. Independent variables included nutrient concentration, dry matter intake, groups, calving interval, variability of 305 day milk production within the herd, and level of feeding. Holding dry matter intake and nutrient concentrations constant, increasing the number of groups from one to two increased 4% FCM by 0%-3%, two groups to three groups by 0-2%, and three groups to four groups by 0-1%. Changing from one group to individual feeding increased 4% FCM by 2%-4% and two group to individual feeding increased 4% FCM by 0%-3%. The range of figures was influenced by herd production level, calving interval, and variability of within herd production. High variability of production favored additional groups, while high calving intervals favored individual feeding. To estimate expected change in profitability due to a change in grouping or feeding methods, multiply previous milk revenue by expected percentage change and subtract the increased cost of feeding. Feeding less than the group average for nutrients was not found conducive for increasing profitability. In fact, production response to protein suggested that the low producing groups in multiple group feeding systems should be increased in protein slightly. Individual feeding had the most potential for profitability, although group feeding compared favorably under some circumstances. If cows were grouped, a minimum of two groups was generally preferable. If the high producing group did not satisfy the needs of the high producing cows, or the drop in nutrients between groups was substantial, a three group system would appear more favorable.
- Harvesting behavior of perennial cash crops: a decision theoretic studyZuhair, Segu M. M. (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1986)This study analyzed the harvesting behavior of perennial cash-crop growers in Sri Lanka. These growers face two alternatives with respect to harvesting; premature and mature harvesting. The objectives of the study were: to determine the reasons for premature harvesting, to explain this behavior with socio-economic factors as explanatory variables, and to describe the behavior with decision theory. The first objective was achieved by surveying a sample of 240 farmers. Fear of theft and immediate money needs were the reasons why most farmers harvested their crop at a premature stage. A logit probability model was used to explain this behavior. Education of the farmer, ratio of lowland to total land operated by the farmer, and the total family income were significantly related to harvesting behavior. Expected utility theory, expected profit maximization, and a lexicographic safety-first model were used to predict farmer behavior. The expected utility approach used the exponential utility function, the quadratic utility function, and the cubic utility function. The lexicographic safety-first model minimized the probability of regret as the first objective and maximized the expected income as the second objective, in that order. The expected utility model with the exponential utility function made the largest number of correct predictions followed by the expected profit maximizing model. The conclusions of this study, while providing more evidence of the poor predictive ability of the expected profit maximizing model, further supports the usefulness of expected utility theory in describing and predicting farmer behavior. A majority of the studies on farmer behavior have concentrated on resource allocation. This study has demonstrated that even harvesting behavior can be explained by expected utility theory. There was no consistency in the way the utility functions ranked the two harvesting alternatives; for certain farmers the ranking of one function reversed the ranking of other functions. This study has, thus, demonstrated the influence of utility functional forms on the ranking of prospects. The results were sensitive to changes in the discount rate and the results of the safety-first model were sensitive to changes in the expected income.
- The impact of married women's employment on household expenditures for clothingDeWeese, Gail (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1987)The objective of this research was to analyze the impact of wives’ employment status and occupation on household expenditures for clothing, when controlling for income and various sociodemographic variables. The sample consisted of 2,285 households selected from the public use tapes of the Quarterly Interview component of the 1980-81 Consumer Expenditure Survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A four-stage econometric analysis of the data included: (1) probit analysis to obtain predicted probabilities of wives’ labor force participation; (2) tobit analysis to predict wives’ wage rates; (3) tobit analyses of six separate clothing expenditure models that contained predicted values from (1) and (2); and (4) tobit analysis of a clothing expenditure model that contained predicted values from (2) in addition to dummy variables for wives’ occupations. The predicted probability of the wife’s employment status was not significant in explaining expenditures for household, women’s, boy’s, or infant’s clothing. Expenditures for men’s clothing were positively affected by an increase in the predicted probability of the wife’s employment, while expenditures for girl’s clothing were negatively impacted by an increase in the predicted probability. Households with women employed in Professional, Traditional, or Uniformed occupations exhibited higher expenditures for clothing than did households with women who were homemakers.
- Income distribution in Virginia: the effect of intersectoral linkages on the short-run size distribution of income in small regionsBernat, G. Andrew (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1985)The purpose of this study is to assess the role intersectoral linkages play in shaping the short-run size distribution of household income. Input-output models are constructed for four regions in Virginia using secondary data. Two distinguishing features of these models are that the household sector is disaggregated into 12 income classes and unemployment benefits are an endogenous component of household income. Using these models, it is concluded that: (a) As linkages increase, the effects on inequality of changes in different components of final demand converge. (b) Increasing the degree of linkage, with constant industry mix, will tend to increase inequality. (c) Although the degree and pattern of linkages among household groups varies from region to region, all income groups are more strongly linked to middle income households than to either high or low income households.
- Income uncertainty and the quality of life : a socio-economic study of Virginia's coal countiesKraybill, David S.; Johnson, Thomas G.; Deaton, Brady J. (Virginia Agricultural Experiment Station, 1987-09)
- The influence of perceived employment opportunities on educational performance in AppalachiaBroomhall, David E. (Virginia Tech, 1991-08-26)The purpose of this study is to analyze the process of education in central Appalachia. Persistent economic and social problems in the region such as unemployment, low average incomes, low educational attainment, and widespread poverty have defied solution. This study uses primary data from high school-aged youths and their parents' in four rural school districts in Appalachia to examine incentive structures which encourage, or discourage, individuals from obtaining education. The study evaluates a number of influences on the value that individuals place on education including community and employer influences, the willingness of youths to relocate to obtain employment, and the perception of employment opportunities in the local community. The study also examines inter-generational aspects of educational behavior by analyzing the influence of socioeconomic background, and parental attitudes and values, on the attitudes and values of their children. The findings indicate that socioeconomic background, and parental and community influences have a significant impact on educational behavior in Appalachia.
- Managing ground water contamination from agricultural nitratesHalstead, John Michael (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1989)Ground water contamination from agricultural nitrates poses potential adverse health effects to a large segment of the rural population of the United States. Contamination is especially prevalent in livestock intensive areas, which produce large quantities of animal waste with substantial nitrogen content. In this study, potential management strategies for reducing nitrate contamination of ground water from agricultural sources were examined using an economic-physical model of a representative dairy farm in Rockingham County, Virginia. A mixed integer programming model with stochastic constraints on nitrate loading to ground water and silage production was used to simulate the impacts of various nitrate loading reduction strategies on estimated farm level net returns over variable costs. A survey of all dairy operations in the county was conducted to assist in specifying the mathematical programming model, identify current nutrient management and quality issues, and gauge farmers’ attitudes toward ground water quality and agricultural chemical use. Results of the model indicate that substantial reductions in current nitrate loadings are possible with relatively minor impacts on farmers’ net returns through the use of currently practiced approaches of cost sharing for manure storage facility construction and nutrient management planning. Greater loading reductions are achievable through presently untried policies of land use restrictions, bans on purchase of commercial fertilizer, and imposition of standards on loadings to ground water. These reductions are achieved, however, at higher costs in terms of reduced net returns. Study results indicate that a wide range of policy options exist for reducing nitrate loading to ground water; these reductions, while varying in cost, do not appear to come at the expense of eliminating the economic viability of the county dairy sector. Model results indicate that reductions in nitrate loading of 40 to 70 percent (on average) could be achieved with reductions in farmers’ net returns of one to 19 percent, respectively, when cost sharing for manure storage construction was provided. Explicit consideration was given to the annual variability in nitrate loading due to weather and other factors. The result was higher policy costs than when average loadings alone were considered.
- A method of evaluating the impact of economic change on the services of local governmentsKambhampaty, S. Murthy (Virginia Tech, 1990-02-05)This study seeks a method of evaluating the local impact of changing economic conditions (such as employment, per capita income, et cetera). Specifically, measures of the impact of changing economic conditions on the services of local governments will be formulated. These measures provide a means for comparing the impact of a project (or of alternative projects) to conditions that would prevail in its (their) absence. The data used is drawn from the Virginia Impact Projection (VIP) Model in the form of statistically derived equations representing the relationships for eleven different categories of public services. The analytical framework was developed based on theories of public decision-making, public finance, and local government expenditures and services. This framework was used to analyze the per capita expenditure relationships (functions) to obtain the information required in formulating the impact measures. For individual categories of services, a SERVICE VALUE INDEX was devised to indicate changes (including shifts) in the demand for the services, and the level of provision thereof. The NET PUBLIC SERVICE BENEFIT is a measure of the overall increase (decline) in public services provision, and balances the change in levels of service on the individual categories against each other. This measure reflects the net benefits derived by the consumer-voter following her/his reallocation of expenditures given the new cost conditions, budget constraints, et cetera, as a consequence of the project.