Browsing by Author "Kirchhoff, Christine J."

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    COVID-19 Reveals Vulnerabilities of the Food–Energy–Water Nexus to Viral Pandemics
    Calder, Ryan S. D.; Grady, Caitlin; Jeuland, Marc; Kirchhoff, Christine J.; Hale, Rebecca L.; Muenich, Rebecca L. (American Chemical Society, 2021)
    Food, energy, and water (FEW) sectors are inextricably linked, making one sector vulnerable to disruptions in another. Interactions between FEW systems, viral pandemics, and human health have not been widely studied. We mined scientific and news/media articles for causal relations among FEW and COVID-19 variables and qualitatively characterized system dynamics. Food systems promoted the emergence and spread of COVID-19, leading to illness and death. Major supply-side breakdowns were avoided (likely due to low morbidity/mortality among working-age people). However, COVID-19 and physical distancing disrupted labor and capital inputs and stressed supply chains, while creating economic insecurity among the already vulnerable poor. This led to demand-side FEW insecurities, in turn increasing susceptibility to COVID-19 among people with many comorbidities. COVID-19 revealed trade-offs such as allocation of water to hygiene versus to food production and disease burden avoided by physical distancing versus disease burden from increased FEW insecurities. News/media articles suggest great public interest in FEW insecurities triggered by COVID-19 interventions among individuals with low COVID-19 case-fatality rates. There is virtually no quantitative analysis of any of these trade-offs or feedbacks. Enhanced quantitative FEW and health models are urgently needed as future pandemics are likely and may have greater morbidity and mortality than COVID-19.
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    Equity in human adaptation-related responses: A systematic global review
    Araos, Malcolm; Jagannathan, Kripa; Shukla, Roopam; Ajibade, Idowu; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Davis, Katy; Ford, James D.; Galappaththi, Eranga K.; Grady, Caitlin; Hudson, A. J.; Joe, Elphin Tom; Kirchhoff, Christine J.; Lesnikowski, Alexandra; Alverio, Gabriela Nagle; Nielsen, Miriam; Orlove, Ben; Pentz, Brian; Reckien, Diana; Siders, A. R.; Ulibarri, Nicola; van Aalst, Maarten K.; Abu, Thelma Zulfawu; Agrawal, Tanvi; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Kerr, Rachel Bezner; Coggins, Shaugn; Garschagen, Matthias; Harden, Alexandra; Mach, Katharine J.; Nunbogu, Abraham Marshall; Spandan, Pandey; Templeman, Sienna; Turek-Hankins, Lynee L. (Elsevier, 2021-10-22)
    Growing evidence suggests that climate adaptation responses that do not incorporate equity considerations may worsen inequality and increase vulnerability. Using data from a systematic review of peer-reviewed empirical research on adaptation responses to climate change (n = 1,682), we present an assessment of how social equity is considered in adaptation across regions, sectors, and social groups. Roughly 60% of peer-reviewed literature on adaptation responses considers social equity by reporting on which marginalized groups were involved in planning or implementation. Articles on responses in Africa and Asia and those focusing on poverty reduction most frequently considered social equity. Equity was less likely to be considered in adaptation responses in Europe, Australasia, and North America, as well as in literature focused on cities. Income-based inequity was more frequently considered than gender, age, or Indigenous status. Ethnic and racial minorities, migrants, and people with disabilities were rarely considered. Attention to the levels and forms in which equity is integrated into adaptation research and practice is needed to ensure just adaptation.
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    Increasing resiliency of integrated food-energy-water systems to viral pandemics: lessons from COVID-19
    Calder, Ryan S. D.; Grady, Caitlin; Jeuland, Marc; Kirchhoff, Christine J.; Rodgers, Samuel; Hale, Rebecca L.; Muenich, Rebecca L. (2021-12-15)
    COVID-19 disrupted labor and capital inputs to interdependent food, energy, and water (FEW) systems. We demonstrate how graphical modeling of phenomena realized during COVID-19 can reveal dynamics of FEW systems during viral pandemics. For example, physical distancing slowed COVID-19 spread but led to economic disruption and may have increased COVID-19 susceptibility by exacerbating FEW insecurities among individuals with many comorbidities. We review predictions of pandemic impacts on FEW systems and identify the mechanisms that explain divergences with respect to observed outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, supply-side breakdowns were averted, likely due to low morbidity and mortality among working-age people and net declines in overall energy demand. Modern food systems promote viral emergence, and future pandemics are likely to differ from COVID-19 with respect to one or more key variables such as age-specific mortality or viral infectivity. We use the case study of the poultry supply chain to highlight challenges in understanding how future viral pandemics may jeopardize food security. For example, a lack of publicly available data on staffing levels, working conditions, and product throughputs limits the possibility to simulate supply chain breakdowns as a function of outbreaks in meatpacking plants. Workers provide labor inputs to the food system, while the food system exposes them to risks of illness and death; simultaneously, workers face economic pressures to work while sick and face demand-side FEW insecurities that affect viral susceptibility. Labor inputs to industrial food supply chains hinge on such system dynamics for which there is virtually no quantitative modeling capacity. COVID-19 however provides an opportunity to parameterize and evaluate new models for FEW resiliency. We propose near-term data collection priorities that span classic FEW research, such as characterization of materials throughputs, and include social science methods and perspectives, such as accounting for workers’ behavioral responses to competing health and economic pressures.
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    A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change
    Berrang-Ford, Lea; Siders, A. R.; Lesnikowski, Alexandra; Fischer, Alexandra Paige; Callaghan, Max W.; Haddaway, Neal R.; Mach, Katharine J.; Araos, Malcolm; Shah, Mohammad Aminur Rahman; Wannewitz, Mia; Doshi, Deepal; Leiter, Timo; Matavel, Custodio; Musah-Surugu, Justice Issah; Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Antwi-Agyei, Philip; Ajibade, Idowu; Chauhan, Neha; Kakenmaster, William; Grady, Caitlin; Chalastani, Vasiliki I.; Jagannathan, Kripa; Galappaththi, Eranga K.; Sitati, Asha; Scarpa, Giulia; Totin, Edmond; Davis, Katy; Hamilton, Nikita Charles; Kirchhoff, Christine J.; Kumar, Praveen; Pentz, Brian; Simpson, Nicholas P.; Theokritoff, Emily; Deryng, Delphine; Reckien, Diana; Zavaleta-Cortijo, Carol; Ulibarri, Nicola; Segnon, Alcade C.; Khavhagali, Vhalinavho; Shang, Yuanyuan; Zvobgo, Luckson; Zommers, Zinta; Xu, Jiren; Williams, Portia Adade; Canosa, Ivan Villaverde; van Maanen, Nicole; van Bavel, Bianca; van Aalst, Maarten K.; Turek-Hankins, Lynee L.; Trivedi, Hasti; Trisos, Christopher H.; Thomas, Adelle; Thakur, Shinny; Templeman, Sienna; Stringer, Lindsay C.; Sotnik, Garry; Sjostrom, Kathryn Dana; Singh, Chandni; Sina, Mariella Z.; Shukla, Roopam; Sardans, Jordi; Salubi, Eunice A.; Chalkasra, Lolita Shaila Safaee; Ruiz-Diaz, Raquel; Richards, Carys; Pokharel, Pratik; Petzold, Jan; Penuelas, Josep; Avila, Julia Pelaez; Murillo, Julia B. Pazmino; Ouni, Souha; Niemann, Jennifer; Nielsen, Miriam; New, Mark; Schwerdtle, Patricia Nayna; Alverio, Gabriela Nagle; Mullin, Cristina A.; Mullenite, Joshua; Mosurska, Anuszka; Morecroft, Mike D.; Minx, Jan C.; Maskell, Gina; Nunbogu, Abraham Marshall; Magnan, Alexandre K.; Lwasa, Shuaib; Lukas-Sithole, Megan; Lissner, Tabea; Lilford, Oliver; Koller, Steven F.; Jurjonas, Matthew; Joe, Elphin Tom; Huynh, Lam TM M.; Hill, Avery; Hernandez, Rebecca R.; Hegde, Greeshma; Hawxwell, Tom; Harper, Sherilee L.; Harden, Alexandra; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilmore, Elisabeth A.; Gichuki, Leah; Gatt, Alyssa; Garschagen, Matthias; Ford, James D.; Forbes, Andrew; Farrell, Aidan D.; Enquist, Carolyn AF F.; Elliott, Susan; Duncan, Emily; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Coggins, Shaugn; Chen, Tara; Campbell, Donovan; Browne, Katherine E.; Bowen, Kathryn J.; Biesbroek, Robbert; Bhatt, Indra D.; Kerr, Rachel Bezner; Barr, Stephanie L.; Baker, Emily; Austin, Stephanie E.; Arotoma-Rojas, Ingrid; Anderson, Christa; Ajaz, Warda; Agrawal, Tanvi; Abu, Thelma Zulfawu (Nature Portfolio, 2021-10-28)
    Assessing global progress on human adaptation to climate change is an urgent priority. Although the literature on adaptation to climate change is rapidly expanding, little is known about the actual extent of implementation. We systematically screened >48,000 articles using machine learning methods and a global network of 126 researchers. Our synthesis of the resulting 1,682 articles presents a systematic and comprehensive global stocktake of implemented human adaptation to climate change. Documented adaptations were largely fragmented, local and incremental, with limited evidence of transformational adaptation and negligible evidence of risk reduction outcomes. We identify eight priorities for global adaptation research: assess the effectiveness of adaptation responses, enhance the understanding of limits to adaptation, enable individuals and civil society to adapt, include missing places, scholars and scholarship, understand private sector responses, improve methods for synthesizing different forms of evidence, assess the adaptation at different temperature thresholds, and improve the inclusion of timescale and the dynamics of responses.