Browsing by Author "Kramer, Laura D."
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- Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease predictionHolcomb, Karen M.; Mathis, Sarabeth; Staples, J. Erin; Fischer, Marc; Barker, Christopher M.; Beard, Charles B.; Nett, Randall J.; Keyel, Alexander C.; Marcantonio, Matteo; Childs, Marissa L.; Gorris, Morgan E.; Rochlin, Ilia; Hamins-Puértolas, Marco; Ray, Evan L.; Uelmen, Johnny A.; DeFelice, Nicholas; Freedman, Andrew S.; Hollingsworth, Brandon D.; Das, Praachi; Osthus, Dave; Humphreys, John M.; Nova, Nicole; Mordecai, Erin A.; Cohnstaedt, Lee W.; Kirk, Devin; Kramer, Laura D.; Harris, Mallory J.; Kain, Morgan P.; Reed, Emily M. X.; Johansson, Michael A. (2023-01-12)Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases).
- La Crosse Virus in Aedes japonicus japonicus Mosquitoes in the Appalachian Region, United StatesHarris, M. Camille; Dotseth, Eric J.; Jackson, Bryan T.; Zink, Steven D.; Marek, Paul E.; Kramer, Laura D.; Paulson, Sally L.; Hawley, Dana M. (2015-04)La Crosse virus (LACV), a leading cause of arboviral encephalitis in children in the United States, is emerging in Appalachia. For local arboviral surveillance, mosquitoes were tested. LACV RNA was detected and isolated from Aedes japonicus mosquitoes. These invasive mosquitoes may significantly affect LACV range expansion and dynamics.
- Large scale complete genome sequencing and phylodynamic analysis of eastern equine encephalitis virus reveal source-sink transmission dynamics in the United StatesTan, Yi; Lam, Tommy Tsan-Yuk; Heberlein-Larson, Lea A.; Smole, Sandra C.; Auguste, Albert J.; Hennigan, Scott; Halpin, Rebecca A.; Fedorova, Nadia; Puri, Vinita; Stockwell, Timothy B.; Shilts, Meghan H.; Andreadis, Theodore G.; Armstrong, Philip M.; Tesh, Robert B.; Weaver, Scott C.; Unnasch, Thomas R.; Ciota, Alexander T.; Kramer, Laura D.; Das, Suman R. (American Society for Microbiology, 2018-04-04)Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) has a high case-fatality rate in horses and humans, and Florida has been hypothesized to be the source of EEEV epidemics for the northeastern United States. To test this hypothesis, we sequenced complete genomes of 433 EEEV strains collected within the United States from 1934 to 2014. Phylogenetic analysis suggested EEEV evolves relatively slowly and that transmission is enzootic in Florida, characterized by higher genetic diversity and long-term local persistence. In contrast, EEEV strains in New York and Massachusetts were characterized by lower genetic diversity, multiple introductions, and shorter local persistence. Our phylogeographic analysis supported a source-sink model in which Florida is the major source of EEEV compared to the other localities sampled. In sum, this study revealed the complex epidemiological dynamics of EEEV in different geographic regions in the United States and provided general insights into the evolution and transmission of other avian mosquito-borne viruses in this region.
- Vector Competence of Aedes albopictus Populations from the Northeastern United States for Chikungunya, Dengue, and Zika VirusesGloria-Soria, Andrea; Payne, Anne F.; Bialosuknia, Sean M.; Stout, Jessica; Mathias, Nicholas; Eastwood, Gillian; Ciota, Alexander T.; Kramer, Laura D.; Armstrong, Philip M. (2021-03)The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an important vector of a number of arboviruses, including Zika (ZIKV), dengue (DENV), and chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses, and has recently expanded its range in the eastern United States to southern New England and New York. Given the recent establishment and proliferation of Ae. albopictus in this region and the increasing amount of international travel between the United States and endemic countries, there is a need to elucidate the public health risk posed by this mosquito species in the Northeast. Accordingly, we evaluated the competence of four Ae. albopictus populations from Connecticut and New York, for two strains each of ZIKV, DENV serotype 2 (DENV-2), and CHIKV, currently circulating in the Americas, to evaluate the local transmission risk by this vector. We found that local Ae. albopictus populations are susceptible to infection by all three viruses but are most capable of transmitting CHIKV. Variation in competence was observed for ZIKV and CHIKV, driven by the virus strains and mosquito population, whereas competence was more homogeneous for the DENV-2 strains under evaluation. These results suggest that under optimal circumstances, Ae. albopictus could support localized transmission of these viruses and emphasize the importance of maintaining mosquito surveillance and control programs to suppress Ae. albopictus populations and limit further range expansion of this species.