Browsing by Author "MacDonald, Rod"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Thumbnail Image
    Group Model Building Techniques for Rapid Elicitation of Parameter Values and Effect-Size-Driven Formulations
    Hosseinichimeh, Niyousha; MacDonald, Rod; Hyder, Ayaz; Ebrahimvandi, Alireza; Porter, Lauren; Reno, Becky; Maurer, Julie A.; Andersen, Deborah; Richardson, George; Hawley, Josh; Andersen, David F. (2017-02)
    Three parts to this presentation: Group Model Building and the Ohio Infant Mortality Project More Details on Rapid Elicitation of Parameters and Size Effects Advance Look at the Resultant Model as of Feb. 2017
  • Thumbnail Image
    Methods and Results from Parameter Estimation Exercises Used in 2-Day Group Modeling Session for Ohio Infant Mortality Study
    Hosseinichimeh, Niyousha; MacDonald, Rod; Hyder, Ayaz; Ebrahimvandi, Alireza; Porter, Lauren; Reno, Becky; Maurer, Julie A.; Andersen, Deborah; Richardson, George; Hawley, Josh; Andersen, David F. (2017-10)
    Much of the existing group model-building literature focuses on approaches to defining model boundary and conceptualizing overall model structure including the creation of a backbone stock-and-flow structure as well as mapping key feedback structures into the model. Detailed formulation and parameter estimates are often left to back room techniques. This paper reports on the use of three scripts designed to engage groups in tasks related to model parameterization. The paper describes the context of the study—a group model building session hosted by the Ohio State University and focusing on infant mortality in the state of Ohio—and then proceeds to lay out the agenda for the two-day group modeling project. We discuss in detail how three scripts were used and also present a summary of the data that was collected to parameterize the final model. The paper sketches how that data has been used to support the rapid prototyping of the first phase of a running simulation model.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Modeling of drinking and driving behaviors among adolescents and young adults in the United States: Complexities and Intervention outcomes
    Hosseinichimeh, Niyousha; MacDonald, Rod; Li, Kaigang; Fell, James C.; Haynie, Denise L.; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Banz, Barbara C.; Camenga, Deepa R.; Iannotti, Ronald J.; Curry, Leslie A.; Dziura, James; Andersen, David F.; Vaca, Federico E. (Elsevier, 2024-07-22)
    Alcohol-impaired driving is a formidable public health problem in the United States, claiming the lives of 37 individuals daily in alcohol-related crashes. Alcohol-impaired driving is affected by a multitude of interconnected factors, coupled with long delays between stakeholders’ actions and their impacts, which not only complicate policy-making but also increase the likelihood of unintended consequences. We developed a system dynamics simulation model of drinking and driving behaviors among adolescents and young adults. This was achieved through group model building sessions with a team of multidisciplinary subject matter experts, and a focused literature review. The model was calibrated with data series from multiple sources and replicated the historical trends for male and female individuals aged 15 to 24 from 1982 to 2020. We simulated the model under different scenarios to examine the impact of a wide range of interventions on alcohol-related crash fatalities. We found that interventions vary in terms of their effectiveness in reducing alcohol-related crash fatalities. In addition, although some interventions reduce alcohol-related crash fatalities, some may increase the number of drinkers who drive after drinking. Based on insights from simulation experiments, we combined three interventions and found that the combined strategy may reduce alcohol-related crash fatalities significantly without increasing the number of alcohol-impaired drivers on US roads. Nevertheless, related fatalities plateau over time despite the combined interventions, underscoring the need for new interventions for a sustained decline in alcohol-related crash deaths beyond a few decades. Finally, through model calibration we estimated time delays between actions and their consequences in the system which provide insights for policymakers and activists when designing strategies to reduce alcohol-related crash fatalities.