Browsing by Author "Mao, Huiying"

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    Analyzing Highway Safety Datasets: Simplifying Statistical Analyses from Sparse to Big Data
    Lord, Dominique; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy; Guo, Feng; Jahangiri, Arash; Shirazi, Mohammadali; Mao, Huiying; Deng, Xinwei (SAFE-D: Safety Through Disruption National University Transportation Center, 2019-07)
    Data used for safety analyses have characteristics that are not found in other disciplines. In this research, we examine three characteristics that can negatively influence the outcome of these safety analyses: (1) crash data with many zero observations; (2) the rare occurrence of crash events (not necessarily related to many zero observations); and (3) big datasets. These characteristics can lead to biased results if inappropriate analysis tools are used. The objectives of this study are to simplify the analysis of highway safety data and develop guidelines and analysis tools for handling these unique characteristics. The research provides guidelines on when to aggregate data over time and space to reduce the number of zero observations; uses heuristics for selecting statistical models; proposes a bias adjustment method for improving the estimation of risk factors; develops a decision-adjusted modeling framework for predicting risk; and shows how cluster analyses can be used to extract relevant information from big data. The guidelines and tools were developed using simulation and observed datasets. Examples are provided to illustrate the guidelines and tools.
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    Decision-adjusted driver risk predictive models using kinematics information
    Mao, Huiying; Guo, Feng; Deng, Xinwei; Doerzaph, Zachary R. (Elsevier, 2021-06)
    Accurate prediction of driving risk is challenging due to the rarity of crashes and individual driver heterogeneity. One promising direction of tackling this challenge is to take advantage of telematics data, increasingly available from connected vehicle technology, to obtain dense risk predictors. In this work, we propose a decision-adjusted framework to develop optimal driver risk prediction models using telematics-based driving behavior information. We apply the proposed framework to identify the optimal threshold values for elevated longitudinal acceleration (ACC), deceleration (DEC), lateral acceleration (LAT), and other model parameters for predicting driver risk. The Second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) naturalistic driving data were used with the decision rule of identifying the top 1% to 20% of the riskiest drivers. The results show that the decision-adjusted model improves prediction precision by 6.3% to 26.1% compared to a baseline model using non-telematics predictors. The proposed model is superior to models based on a receiver operating characteristic curve criterion, with 5.3% and 31.8% improvement in prediction precision. The results confirm that the optimal thresholds for ACC, DEC and LAT are sensitive to the decision rules, especially when predicting a small percentage of high-risk drivers. This study demonstrates the value of kinematic driving behavior in crash risk prediction and the necessity for a systematic approach for extracting prediction features. The proposed method can benefit broad applications, including fleet safety management, use-based insurance, driver behavior intervention, as well as connected-vehicle safety technology development.
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    Optimal Driver Risk Modeling
    Mao, Huiying (Virginia Tech, 2019-08-21)
    The importance of traffic safety has prompted considerable research on predicting driver risk and evaluating the impact of risk factors. Driver risk modeling is challenging due to the rarity of motor vehicle crashes and heterogeneity in individual driver risk. Statistical modeling and analysis of such driver data are often associated with Big Data, considerable noise, and lacking informative predictors. This dissertation aims to develop several systematic techniques for traffic safety modeling, including finite sample bias correction, decision-adjusted modeling, and effective risk factor construction. Poisson and negative binomial regression models are primary statistical analysis tools for traffic safety evaluation. The regression parameter estimation could suffer from the finite sample bias when the event frequency (e.g., the total number of crashes) is low, which is commonly observed in safety research. Through comprehensive simulation and two case studies, it is found that bias adjustment can provide more accurate estimation when evaluating the impacts of crash risk factors. I also propose a decision-adjusted approach to construct an optimal kinematic-based driver risk prediction model. Decision-adjusted modeling fills the gap between conventional modeling methods and the decision-making perspective, i.e., on how the estimated model will be used. The key of the proposed method is to enable a decision-oriented objective function to properly adjust model estimation by selecting the optimal threshold for kinematic signatures and other model parameters. The decision-adjusted driver-risk prediction framework can outperform a general model selection rule such as the area under the curve (AUC), especially when predicting a small percentage of high-risk drivers. For the third part, I develop a Multi-stratum Iterative Central Composite Design (miCCD) approach to effectively search for the optimal solution of any "black box" function in high dimensional space. Here the "black box" means that the specific formulation of the objective function is unknown or is complicated. The miCCD approach has two major parts: a multi-start scheme and local optimization. The multi-start scheme finds multiple adequate points to start with using space-filling designs (e.g. Latin hypercube sampling). For each adequate starting point, iterative CCD converges to the local optimum. The miCCD is able to determine the optimal threshold of the kinematic signature as a function of the driving speed.