VTechWorks Repository :: Browsing by Author "McDowell, George R."

Browsing by Author "McDowell, George R."

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Analysis of Agricultural Production in Albania: Prospects for Policy Improvement
Zaloshnja, Eduard X. (Virginia Tech, 1997-09-11)
The overall objective of this study is to develop a framework to predict the impacts of government policies on agricultural production in Albania. The specific goal of this study is to provide some empirical estimates of the farmers' short-run supply response to government policies that effect output and input prices. Different theoretical approaches to integrating the questions this study purports to answer were considered. Two models were deemed as most appropriate for Albanian agriculture. The first is a semi-commercial farm household model and the second is the well-known indirect profit function model. The first model was preferred. However, the second was used instead, due to the lack of information necessary for an empirical application of the semi-commercial farm household model. A quadratic functional form was selected to approximate the profit function. It satisfied the Taylor series approximation convergence test. Two approaches were used to estimate the empirical model. In the first, the traditional approach, the symmetry and homogeneity conditions were imposed beforehand and then the system of equations was estimated using the ITSUR procedure in SAS. Following common practice, a joint Rao test of these conditions was conducted, implicitly assuming that the test statistic has a Fisher distribution or, stated differently, assuming that parameter estimators are normally distributed. The test results indicate that the conditions are met. A second approach, proposed by McGuirk, et al., was also used in this study. The approach proposed by McGuirk, et al., requires that, before imposing and/or testing any theoretical assumption, the unrestricted model is estimated and tested to see if all the underlying statistical assumptions of the linear regression are met. The misspecification tests suggested that the model is not statistically adequate. This finding indicated that the theoretical test conducted in the traditional approach was invalid. An alternative estimation procedure is proposed in the study for cases when a statistically adequate model cannot be specified. Named the sub-sample or the bootstrapping method, this procedure consists of randomly selecting a large number of sub-samples from the cross-sectional sample and running a regression for each of them. The large number of estimates for each of the coefficients serves as a basis for estimating 95-percent confidence intervals. An inspection of the supply and input demand elasticities calculated based on coefficients estimated through the sub-sample method revealed that half of them have wide 95 percent confidence intervals. Therefore, predicting policy impacts across all output and input equations is not possible. However, elasticities that have narrow confidence intervals and make economic sense can be used to predict isolated policy impacts, if Albania returns to the conditions that prevailed before the political turmoil of 1997.
Assessing Farm-Level and Aggregate Economic Impacts of Olive Integrated Pest Management Programs in Albania: an Ex-Ante Analysis
Daku, Lefter S. (Virginia Tech, 2002-04-11)
Concerns about the harmful effects of pesticides on the environment, human health, and wildlife have led to research and promotion of integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. Recently, an IPM program was introduced in the Albanian olive sector through the USAID-funded global IPM-CRSP project to develop improved olive IPM technologies. This study develops and applies a protocol for integrated economic impact assessment of olive pest management strategies designed by the IPM-CRSP project in Albania. The main components of the integrated approach for economic impact assessment of olive IPM include (i) net return analysis for measuring farm level impacts; (ii) economic surplus modeling for measuring market-level impacts; and (iii) modeling of IPM adoption under output uncertainty. The economic surplus equilibrium displacement model developed for the Albanian olive market with no international trade accounts for IPM research-induced supply shifts, increased demand due to quality improvement, and research-induced spillovers to non-target zones. The main sources of data for performing partial budgeting and economic surplus analysis were: (i) an expert survey; (ii) partial budgets compiled based on a farmer survey and expenditure records from field-level experiments; and (iii) data collected at the market level. The data used to estimate the dichotomous logit model came from a 1999 survey of 200 growers and a survey of 120 growers carried out in 2000 in the Vlora district of Albania. The net return analysis indicates that compared to conventional practices, the proposed olive IPM packages generally promise higher yields, improved quality of olive products, lower pesticide use, and higher net returns to producers. However, adoption of some of the IPM practices implied higher production costs. Based on the simulation results, the Albanian olive industry has the potential to derive a net IPM research benefit between $39 million (assuming that farmers move directly from minimum spraying to IPM) and $52 million (assuming that farmers move from full pesticide program to IPM) over the next 30 years. Farmers' reliance on pesticide use on olives and other crops does not seem to hinder IPM adoption. Grower perceptions and the process of expectation formation significantly influence adoption decisions. Addressing the process of expectation formation and changing these perceptions by educational programs and better access to information will encourage IPM adoption.
Balancing competing development objectives in the Trifinio region of Central America: economic and social development and environmental protection
Elias, Carlos Guillermo (Virginia Tech, 2008-08-04)
This dissertation contains three related papers. The first paper revisits the concept of integrated rural development and provides examples on how to design balanced development work programs for the Trifinio region, a small rural region shared by 3 Central American countries. Work programs should balance 3 development objectives: economic development, social development and environmental protection. Finding a balance between these 3 competing objectives is difficult. The literature of Sustainable Development recognizes that policy makers often fail to balance objectives while the Integrated Rural Development literature points out the challenges of combining the objectives in a manageable project. We argue that, by focusing on identifying sources of economic friction and by accurately measuring tradeoffs using appropriate tools, we can design sound work programs. We present a toolkit that allows policy makers to identify sources of economic friction, measure their drag on the economy, and prioritize these sources so as to reduce the frictions that slow rural development. The toolkit contains 4 tools to assist in program design and 1 for implementation. GIS and building municipal indices of outcomes, household surveys, conjoint analysis and economic field experiments, are the tools that we have applied to design work programs in the Trifinio. In addition, balanced programs must be multi-dimensional in scope so we propose a tool that focuses on the institutional setup required for successful program execution. Finally we make policy recommendations and suggest additional tools that may also be added to our tool kit. In the second paper we create municipal indices of agricultural value of production, personal consumption and poverty in the Trifinio region of Central America with the objective of using them to guide investment priorities. Our indices synthesize information from the complex economic, social and geographic system of this region. In this respect we depart from established practices of estimating indices—for outcomes such as competitiveness—that select factors and create the index by adding them up. The established practice follows a normative approach because the index results from adding factors that should have an impact on the outcome. In this context the index author does not observe the outcome or the impact of factors; and does not know the functional relationship between factors and outcome. The author assumes all the information to create indices. Our methodology follows a positive approach and departs from the established practice because we estimate the outcome and identify factors that have an impact on it. To do it we use household survey and municipal level data to estimate determinants of agricultural value of production, consumption and poverty for the 45 municipalities in the Trifinio region. We then show how to identify municipalities in greatest need, identify factors of greatest impact on the outcome, and identify complementary activities. In addition we use GIS to develop a method that allows for the "generation" of missing agricultural-related data by extrapolating high quality yet limited information from a subsection of the region to the whole. The data generated has been validated in the field by agriculture experts thus confirming the legitimacy of this innovation. Finally we offer policy recommendations. The final paper presents an economic model of group formation with an application to data collected from an agricultural credit program in western Honduras. We formulate a simple theory of group formation using the concept of centers of gravity to explain why individuals join a group. According to our theory, prospective members join based on the potential benefits and costs of group membership, and based on their perception of social distance between themselves and other group members. Social distance is unobservable by outsiders but known by the individual: if you are in then you know who has blue hair. Thus, we argue that social distance helps explain preferences for group formation. To test our theory we analyze data collected from members and non-members of PRODERT, a program that has helped create 188 "Cajas Rurales" (CRs). Using conjoint analysis we test for differences in preferences between members and non-members for the main attributes of the CR. We find that members and non-members exhibit similar preferences for the attributes of the CR; therefore non-membership is not related to supply factors. Using information gathered by executing field experiments, we estimate a proxy for social distance. We use this proxy to run a group formation equation and find that it explains, along with individual characteristics, participation in the CR. Finally we offer suggestions on how to balance performance and coverage in programs in which beneficiaries decide who joins. Small cohesive groups may show exceptional performance at the cost of low coverage, and the opposite may be true.
Capital Access in Rural Virginia
Kruja, Zana (Virginia Tech, 1997-07-01)
The objective of this study is to determine whether there are inadequacies in the rural financial markets of Virginia. The analysis is based on data from a survey of farm and non-farm small businesses, in five rural counties in Virginia. A Probit model is used to determine whether the financing difficulty encountered by small rural businesses is significantly determined by non-risk characteristics of users of capital and/or non-risk characteristics of local capital markets. Four variables representing different aspects of financing difficulty are used as the dependent variables in each of the four models used in this study. These variables are, loan denial and non-local financing reported by the survey respondents, opinions of survey respondents on the adequacy of local capital markets, and their expectations on future satisfaction with the performance of the local capital market. Businesses' risk characteristics should be the only determinant of the financing difficulty faced by capital users. However, this analysis indicates that access to capital is determined by non-risk local businesses' and local financial market characteristics as well. Among the most influential non-risk characteristics are: firm size, number of non-local locations, number of competitors in the local market, form of ownership, size of local financial institutions, and local financial institutions' specialization in lending to small businesses. In addition there are large differences in the way financing needs are met in different economic sectors in rural areas. Non-agricultural businesses seem to have less access to financing compared to agricultural businesses. Further, there is evidence that information in rural financial markets is not complete, and that the sources of information are limited. The evidence on availability of capital is mixed and insufficient to conclude that this is an issue in rural Virginia. The results of the analysis are used to identify ways to increase the availability of cost efficient capital for new and small businesses in rural areas in Virginia. The recommendations include considerations on how to improve governmental presence in rural capital markets to provide or facilitate better access to capital.
Coal taxation revenues and county finances in southwestern Virginia
Romano, Eduardo; McDowell, George R. (Virginia Cooperative Extension, 1995)
The Differential Impact of Welfare Reform in Non-metropolitan and Metropolitan Areas of Virginia
Chinnis, Sarah (Virginia Tech, 1999-02-11)
The state of Virginia has been a leader in the design and implementation of welfare reform measures. State welfare reforms were enacted in 1996 and federal reforms followed shortly after in 1996. Initial decreases in program caseloads and the movement of former recipients from unemployment to employment have led initial reform measures to be widely heralded as successes. Significant concerns remain, however, about the ability of non-metropolitan labor markets to absorb female household heads currently on welfare. This thesis addresses potential differences in the impact of welfare reform measures in non-metropolitan and metropolitan labor markets by estimating wage and reservation wage equations for female household heads in Northern and Southwest Virginia. The results suggest young children and lack of access to automobiles create significantly greater barriers to employment in non-metropolitan than metropolitan labor markets. Estimated potential earnings in Southwest Virginia were lower than in Northern Virginia and suggest that female household heads will have trouble escaping poverty through employment. In fact, initial reported earnings for both areas have fallen below estimates of living wages needed to escape poverty. The results also suggest traditional labor market characteristics do not explain all of the differences in earnings, particularly the differences in the observed wages of persons exiting welfare as compared to the general population. If this is the case, policies that only address child care and transportation costs may have little impact as to the ability of welfare recipients to get and keep jobs that enable them to become economically self-sufficient.
Investing in Agricultural Extension: the Case of Albania
Daku, Lefter S. (Virginia Tech, 1997-09-25)
The purpose of this study is to provide a policy framework for designing an effective agricultural extension service in support of the market orientation of small farmers in Albania. The main findings and policy implications of this study can help guide the establishment of an agricultural extension service and define appropriate roles for the public and private sectors in providing extension services to Albanian farmers. A case study was conducted by interviewing researchers, extension specialists and university staff in Albania to identify the problems and constraints encountered in establishing extension service. Data from secondary sources, including surveys and case studies conducted by Tirana Agricultural University, were used to analyze the country's agricultural sector performance during the transition period. A three-part procedure is used to develop a policy framework for agricultural extension in Albania. The first part underscores the need for the many facets of extension and its goals to be viewed from a systems perspective, by examining its place within the matrix of support services and agricultural knowledge information system (AKIS). The second part emphasizes the need for an extension strategy and analyzes the main elements of a formal extension policy. A comparative analysis of the most eminent extension systems worldwide is provided to help design an appropriate extension system for Albania. It is argued that Albania needs an extension system that is "demand" as well as "supply-driven". Such an extension system needs to be designed based on the following basic principles: situation specificity, financial sustainability, system flexibility, and systemwide participation. A conceptual framework with respect to public goods and externalities is used in the third part to evaluate the incentive structure of private and public sectors for providing extension services to farmers. Two groups of factors that affect the private sector supply of extension are analyzed: (i) demand and supply-side factors that affect the profitability of the service and (ii) factors arising from the public good nature of extension output that affect the appropriability of returns of the service. It is concluded that a public-private extension balance should be achieved. The role of the public extension service to correct for undesirable effects of extension privatization is emphasized.
Investment analysis for "Tomorri Ltd.", Berat, Albania
Gjata, Enkeleida (Virginia Tech, 1995-09-15)
"Tomorri Ltd." is an Albanian private company owned by Protopapa family that produces wheat flour for the Albanian domestic market. Its successful business operation not only enabled Tomori owners to recover their original investment over a relatively short payback period, but also provided them with an additional $100,000 available for new investment. The purpose of this paper was to identify the right investment decision for the Tomorri owners given three feasible alternatives. The primary method used to evaluate these alternatives was the Net Present Value approach. Net Present Value for each investment alternative was calculated based on a ten year stream of cash flows. A sensitivity analysis was then performed to test the responsiveness of the Net Present Values to fluctuations in the expected interest rates and salvage values associated with the three Alternatives. The results of the Net Present Value analysis were used to provide the owners of "Tomorri Ltd." with the optimal alternative of investing in a new compact flour mill outside of Tirana.
The Local Composite Index: A Critical Analysis
Driscoll, Lisa G. (Virginia Tech, 1998-06-25)
The purpose of this study was to develop an explanation for the volatile behavior of the Local Composite Index, Virginia's measure of public school division fiscal capacity. This study documented and analyzed the behavior of the mathematical and structural components of the current formula over the period inclusive of Biennia 1984-86 through 1996-98. It was implemented in five phases: 1. Literature Review. Literature related to public school division fiscal capacity was reviewed: a) To identify normative and procedural concepts important to the philosophical development of fiscal capacity. b) To delineate the various models used across the United States in the determination of public school fiscal capacity. c) To examine components of indices, their application, and criteria for evaluating their behavior. 2. Local Composite Index Review. Information was collected from various sources regarding the Local Composite Index and its components for all school divisions in the Commonwealth. 3. Database Development. A relational database was developed to facilitate exploratory trend analyses of the LCI and its components. 4. Analysis. An identification and analysis of three trends was selected, defined, and undertaken: a) Biennial Change Rate of the Indicators, Local and State b) Biennial Change Rate of the Standardized Indicators, Local and State c) Net Biennial Change Rate of the Local to State Ratio for the Standardized Indicators 5. Case Studies. Five case studies of public school divisions and the Commonwealth of Virginia were performed to provide an in-depth and quantitative analysis of the interaction of the various component trends of the Local Composite Index and their resultant effects. The study identified specific phenomena and their percentage contribution to the volatility of the Local Composite Index. The study found three interactive effects of the LCI ratio structure that contribute to its volatility: * The Ratio structure can enhance the LCI value. * The Ratio structure can dampen the LCI value. * The ratio structure allows for Synthetic Change within the Local or State Standardized Indicators, which stimulates unpredictable patterns of volatility.
Making Albanian Forestry Work
Naka, Kozma Jr. (Virginia Tech, 1998-07-02)
Recently, Albania has had major transition from a state-controlled to a market economy. The economic reformation has led to widespread liberalization of prices, external trade, and domestic marketing. These changes have been positive for some segments of the economy, but to date the forestry sector has been negatively affected by the transition. The decline of forest resources accelerated and continues. Inefficiencies, price distortions, government fiscal austerity, rapid expansion of livestock, and illegal harvesting point to further deforestation. This study identifies the social and political factors leading to the decline of Albania's forest resource through an examination of relevant information. Then, using the process approach of policy analysis, it assesses the barriers and incentives that impede or distort the intended effect of the current policy implementation. Third, it suggests new policies and/or changes with the aim to manage the forests sustainability and to attract investments in Albanian forestry. Policy issues for areas and sectors important or related to forestry, including agriculture, livestock industry, tourism, and rural development are discussed. Successful implementation of forest policies will be achieved by encompassing all issues pertinent to rural development. The focus is on formulation of forest policy, the evaluation of the current forest law, the role of the statute in the policy process, and guidelines in the preparation of the laws. However, the enactment of laws alone cannot ensure the success of a policy. Special consideration is given to the implementation part of the process, especially interpretation, organization, application; tools (regulations, incentives, taxation), opportunities/constraints, priorities and suggestions for successful implementation. Finally, the topic of evaluation is addressed: its intention, possible analytical techniques and standards of performance, role and expectations of participants and analysts, and major obstacles to an effective evaluation. Recommendations include changes in existing policies to allow the transfer of some state land to private and communal ownership, the expansion of the national parks to include more old-growth forests, and the adoption of concessionaires for the management of the state forests. Other policy proposals, such as a massive reforestation effort, promotion of community-oriented forest management, and forest certification, follow.
Methods for Evaluating Agricultural Enterprises in the Framework of Uncertainty Facing Tobacco Producing Regions of Virginia
Halili, Rushan (Virginia Tech, 1999-11-22)
The purpose of this study was to develop and demonstrate an analytical framework to filter technical and economic information regarding alternative agricultural enterprises in order to enable farmers to make more informed diversification and adjustment decisions. This is particularly important for areas that need to adjust the structure of income sources as a result of dramatic changes in market demand and/or agricultural policy. Tobacco producing regions are currently facing such a problem in the United States. These regions need to consider a wide range of alternatives to maintain or enhance income and standards of living. The problem involved both strategic economic decisions and operational economic decisions. The method used combined information in the ArcView Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with Linear Programming (LP). Part of Pittsylvania County, Virginia, served as a case study example. A GIS database including soils and climatic conditions of the study area was created. Soils belonging to land capability classes 1 to 4 were considered for agricultural purposes. Agronomic requirements for specific yield levels of the enterprises considered were tabulated. An ArcView GIS analysis was conducted based on soil map unit symbols. Soil depth, soil series, soil texture, slope, flood potential and average summer temperature were factors associated with yield. Natural drainage, pH, natural fertility, content of organic matter and annual rainfall were factors that served for enterprise budget adjustments. The output of ArcView GIS analysis is maps of physically viable enterprise boundaries or enterprise reference units and tables of attributes for each field. Marketing of agricultural products that have prices that fluctuate seasonally is feasible only within the period of time called the "market window". When average historical prices were above total costs, a market window was identified. The optimal enterprise mix was addressed by LP from a whole farm planning perspective based on the results of ArcView GIS analysis and other constraints, including crop rotations, and irrigation limits. Various levels of tobacco production, vegetable enterprise activity levels, and limits on irrigation were employed to generate, ten scenarios. Results include the optimal enterprise mix, net revenue (above variable costs), shadow prices and sensitivity analysis. It is shown that specialty crops are not likely to replace tobacco income, at least in the near term. Developing a diversified farm plan could help farmers to make a smooth transition to other alternatives.
Rationale and Structure for Adequate Public Education: A Value Critical Approach
Sebens, Patricia Anne Shope (Virginia Tech, 2006-01-23)
The purpose of this dissertation was to provide a functional definition of adequacy synthesized from the application of efficiency (E), equality/equity/dignity (EED), and excellence/quality (EQ) value clusters found in various state litigations pertaining to the financial systems used to distribute educational opportunity. Questions researched in this study were (a) In what manner might the tension of the paradoxical demands of community responsibility and individual rights housed within the principle of liberty be used creatively in the development of public policy? (b) How do the value clusters inherent in democracy allow for balance and affect the provision of adequate educational opportunity? (c) Using value critical analysis, how does funding litigation clarify the search for the meaning of adequate educational opportunity? (d) What themes appear throughout these cases that may be used to build consensus for the development of policy frameworks and the evaluation of present funding systems designed to provide adequate educational opportunity in a particular time and place? As an examination of policy, legal research was used to analyze litigation in cases in which the provision of educational opportunity was challenged based on the terms of art under girding standards established for the delivery of public education. This study was implemented in five stages: 1. Values clusters to be examined were selected through the review of the history of educational opportunity in this nation and current literature addressing public values and education policy. 2. Through the examination of the paradox within the principle of liberty that guarantees individual rights and requires community responsibility, consideration was given to the creative tension, both principled and structural, that laid the foundation for and continues to drive the democratic process. 3. The role that policy development plays in establishing balance was outlined, noting the argumentation process used to transform knowledge through values, to create the framework necessary to take consistent action. 4. Value critical analysis examined the definition given to values clusters of efficiency (E), equality/equity/dignity (EED), and excellence/quality (EQ) as found in court cases adjudicated in the last fifty years affecting the provision of educational opportunities. Litigation was analyzed, considering the standards established for the delivery of public education in state constitutions, the value given to the terms of art underpinning those standards, and the definitions for those terms as established by the courts. 5. Using the information gleaned, a policy framework was developed to structure adequate educational opportunity for all children.

Browsing by Author "McDowell, George R."

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