VTechWorks Repository :: Browsing by Author "McGuirk, Anya M."

Browsing by Author "McGuirk, Anya M."

Now showing 1 - 20 of 55

Accounting data and stock returns across business-cycle associated valuation change periods
Kane, Gregory D. (Virginia Tech, 1992-11-06)
This study examines intertemporal variation in the associations of accounting data with subsequent firm returns. A number of accounting research studies pool data indiscriminately across time and firms. Previous research has disclosed the nature and effects of cross-sectional dependencies in pooled data. On the other hand, intertemporal dependencies associated with real macroeconomic phenomena have not been widely researched. The objective of this study was to provide evidence as to whether accounting data's associations with subsequent firm returns systematically vary across recession-associated and expansion-associated valuation change periods. Eighty-two accounting ratios were examined for evidence of systematic variation in association across business cycle-associated valuation events. Analyses are conducted, using both simple and multiple regression. Business cycle effects on the predictive accuracy of regression models were also examined.
Advances in Applied Econometrics: Binary Discrete Choice Models, Artificial Neural Networks, and Asymmetries in the FAST Multistage Demand System
Bergtold, Jason Scott (Virginia Tech, 2004-04-14)
The dissertation examines advancements in the methods and techniques used in the field of econometrics. These advancements include: (i) a re-examination of the underlying statistical foundations of statistical models with binary dependent variables. (ii) using feed-forward backpropagation artificial neural networks for modeling dichotomous choice processes, and (iii) the estimation of unconditional demand elasticities using the flexible multistage demand system with asymmetric partitions and fixed effects across time. The first paper re-examines the underlying statistical foundations of statistical models with binary dependent variables using the probabilistic reduction approach. This re-examination leads to the development of the Bernoulli Regression Model, a family of statistical models arising from conditional Bernoulli distributions. The paper provides guidelines for specifying and estimating a Bernoulli Regression Model, as well as, methods for generating and simulating conditional binary choice processes. Finally, the Multinomial Regression Model is presented as a direct extension. The second paper empirically compares the out-of-sample predictive capabilities of artificial neural networks to binary logit and probit models. To facilitate this comparison, the statistical foundations of dichotomous choice models and feed-forward backpropagation artificial neural networks (FFBANNs) are re-evaluated. Using contingent valuation survey data, the paper shows that FFBANNs provide an alternative to the binary logit and probit models with linear index functions. Direct comparisons between the models showed that the FFBANNs performed marginally better than the logit and probit models for a number of within-sample and out-of-sample performance measures, but in the majority of cases these differences were not statistically significant. In addition, guidelines for modeling contingent valuation survey data and techniques for estimating median WTP measures using FFBANNs are examined. The third paper estimates a set of unconditional price and expenditure elasticities for 49 different processed food categories using scanner data and the flexible and symmetric translog (FAST) multistage demand system. Due to the use of panel data and the presence of heterogeneity across time, temporal fixed effects were incorporated into the model. Overall, estimated price elasticities are larger, in absolute terms, than previous estimates. The use of disaggregated product groupings, scanner data, and the estimation of unconditional elasticities likely accounts for these differences.
Analysis of Agricultural Production in Albania: Prospects for Policy Improvement
Zaloshnja, Eduard X. (Virginia Tech, 1997-09-11)
The overall objective of this study is to develop a framework to predict the impacts of government policies on agricultural production in Albania. The specific goal of this study is to provide some empirical estimates of the farmers' short-run supply response to government policies that effect output and input prices. Different theoretical approaches to integrating the questions this study purports to answer were considered. Two models were deemed as most appropriate for Albanian agriculture. The first is a semi-commercial farm household model and the second is the well-known indirect profit function model. The first model was preferred. However, the second was used instead, due to the lack of information necessary for an empirical application of the semi-commercial farm household model. A quadratic functional form was selected to approximate the profit function. It satisfied the Taylor series approximation convergence test. Two approaches were used to estimate the empirical model. In the first, the traditional approach, the symmetry and homogeneity conditions were imposed beforehand and then the system of equations was estimated using the ITSUR procedure in SAS. Following common practice, a joint Rao test of these conditions was conducted, implicitly assuming that the test statistic has a Fisher distribution or, stated differently, assuming that parameter estimators are normally distributed. The test results indicate that the conditions are met. A second approach, proposed by McGuirk, et al., was also used in this study. The approach proposed by McGuirk, et al., requires that, before imposing and/or testing any theoretical assumption, the unrestricted model is estimated and tested to see if all the underlying statistical assumptions of the linear regression are met. The misspecification tests suggested that the model is not statistically adequate. This finding indicated that the theoretical test conducted in the traditional approach was invalid. An alternative estimation procedure is proposed in the study for cases when a statistically adequate model cannot be specified. Named the sub-sample or the bootstrapping method, this procedure consists of randomly selecting a large number of sub-samples from the cross-sectional sample and running a regression for each of them. The large number of estimates for each of the coefficients serves as a basis for estimating 95-percent confidence intervals. An inspection of the supply and input demand elasticities calculated based on coefficients estimated through the sub-sample method revealed that half of them have wide 95 percent confidence intervals. Therefore, predicting policy impacts across all output and input equations is not possible. However, elasticities that have narrow confidence intervals and make economic sense can be used to predict isolated policy impacts, if Albania returns to the conditions that prevailed before the political turmoil of 1997.
An analytic model of the food consumption behavior of health-conscious individuals
Kambhampaty, S. Murthy (Virginia Tech, 1994-05-05)
Evidence of changing patterns of food consumption behavior is presented. Previous attempts at explaining these changes are critically reviewed and the need for an alternate approach is identified. A model of consumer behavior in which utility from food consumption is maximized subject to outlay for foods and limits on the consumption of fat, cholesterol, sodium, and/or other food components is proposed. This model yields a system of demands that are functions of prices and outlay as well as the composition of food and limits on the consumption of these components. The structure of this model is examined and restrictions on consumer food demands are derived. The derivation of individual demands based on the proposed model is demonstrated using a specific indirect utility function. Tests of the joint hypotheses that fat or cholesterol consumption determines food demand are defined. The computation of aggregate food demand elasticities with respect to changes in prices and changes in attributes such as fat or cholesterol consumption is demonstrated. Data necessary for estimating the parameters of the model and testing hypotheses are identified. The model proposed in this study allows tests of the hypothesis that food demands are not affected by food composition as well as measurement of these effects
Assessing Factors Affecting Adoption of Agricultural Technologies: The Case of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) in Kumi District, Eastern Uganda
Bonabana-Wabbi, Jackline (Virginia Tech, 2002-11-18)
Improper pesticide use on crops causes adverse effects on humans, livestock, crops and the environment. Integrated pest management practices emphasize minimal use of pesticides in controlling pests, and their adoption by farmers can reduce the use of pesticides and their adverse impacts. The introduction of IPM CRSP activities in Uganda to institutionalize IPM methods focused on priority crops in the country. This study analyzed adoption of eight IPM technologies on cowpea, sorghum and groundnuts. Low levels of adoption (<25%) were found with five of these technologies while three technologies had high adoption levels (>75%). Results indicate that farmers' participation in on-farm trial demonstrations, accessing agricultural knowledge through researchers, and prior participation in pest training were associated with increased adoption of most IPM practices. Size of farmer's land holdings did not affect IPM adoption suggesting that IPM technologies are mostly scale neutral, implying that IPM dissemination may take place regardless of farmer's scale of operation. Farmers' perception of harmful effects of chemicals did not influence farmers' decisions in regard to IPM technology adoption despite their high knowledge of this issue, suggesting that these farmers did not consider environmental and health impacts important factors when choosing farming practices. Farmers' managerial capabilities were not important in explaining cowpea IPM technology adoption.
Assessment of policies and socio-economic factors affecting pesticide use in the Philippines
Tjornhom, Jessica D. (Virginia Tech, 1995)
A logit model was employed to determine the relative importance of socioeconomic factors influencing the misuse of pesticides on vegetables in Central Luzon, Philippines. The analysis revealed an increase in pesticide misuse associated with the following factors: a high value placed on advice from a chemical company representative; membership in a cooperative, village or farmers' association; and visits by a Department of Agriculture technician to discuss non-pesticide means of controlling vegetable pests. Those factors which reduced pesticide misuse included: increased age and educational attainment; access to integrated pest management training through the Farmer Field School; receiving credit from a cooperative; and agreement with the perception that killing natural enemies could hasten pest infestation. The effective rate of protection on nine pesticides was calculated to quantify the net effects of pricing and exchange rate policies on the degree of subsidy or tax experienced by pesticide importers. It was found that the effective rate of protection for the nine pesticides was between negative 12 and 25 percent when the exchange rate effects were accounted for. However, the rate of protection became more negative when the equilibrium exchange rate was used indicating that exchange rate overvaluation offset the tax pesticide importers face. In addition, the analysis indicated that pricing and exchange rate policies have created a six to eight percent subsidy on pesticide prices for the years 1989 to 1993. This subsidy on pesticides has increased both consumer and producers welfare and the quantity of pesticides used in the Philippines.
Balancing competing development objectives in the Trifinio region of Central America: economic and social development and environmental protection
Elias, Carlos Guillermo (Virginia Tech, 2008-08-04)
This dissertation contains three related papers. The first paper revisits the concept of integrated rural development and provides examples on how to design balanced development work programs for the Trifinio region, a small rural region shared by 3 Central American countries. Work programs should balance 3 development objectives: economic development, social development and environmental protection. Finding a balance between these 3 competing objectives is difficult. The literature of Sustainable Development recognizes that policy makers often fail to balance objectives while the Integrated Rural Development literature points out the challenges of combining the objectives in a manageable project. We argue that, by focusing on identifying sources of economic friction and by accurately measuring tradeoffs using appropriate tools, we can design sound work programs. We present a toolkit that allows policy makers to identify sources of economic friction, measure their drag on the economy, and prioritize these sources so as to reduce the frictions that slow rural development. The toolkit contains 4 tools to assist in program design and 1 for implementation. GIS and building municipal indices of outcomes, household surveys, conjoint analysis and economic field experiments, are the tools that we have applied to design work programs in the Trifinio. In addition, balanced programs must be multi-dimensional in scope so we propose a tool that focuses on the institutional setup required for successful program execution. Finally we make policy recommendations and suggest additional tools that may also be added to our tool kit. In the second paper we create municipal indices of agricultural value of production, personal consumption and poverty in the Trifinio region of Central America with the objective of using them to guide investment priorities. Our indices synthesize information from the complex economic, social and geographic system of this region. In this respect we depart from established practices of estimating indices—for outcomes such as competitiveness—that select factors and create the index by adding them up. The established practice follows a normative approach because the index results from adding factors that should have an impact on the outcome. In this context the index author does not observe the outcome or the impact of factors; and does not know the functional relationship between factors and outcome. The author assumes all the information to create indices. Our methodology follows a positive approach and departs from the established practice because we estimate the outcome and identify factors that have an impact on it. To do it we use household survey and municipal level data to estimate determinants of agricultural value of production, consumption and poverty for the 45 municipalities in the Trifinio region. We then show how to identify municipalities in greatest need, identify factors of greatest impact on the outcome, and identify complementary activities. In addition we use GIS to develop a method that allows for the "generation" of missing agricultural-related data by extrapolating high quality yet limited information from a subsection of the region to the whole. The data generated has been validated in the field by agriculture experts thus confirming the legitimacy of this innovation. Finally we offer policy recommendations. The final paper presents an economic model of group formation with an application to data collected from an agricultural credit program in western Honduras. We formulate a simple theory of group formation using the concept of centers of gravity to explain why individuals join a group. According to our theory, prospective members join based on the potential benefits and costs of group membership, and based on their perception of social distance between themselves and other group members. Social distance is unobservable by outsiders but known by the individual: if you are in then you know who has blue hair. Thus, we argue that social distance helps explain preferences for group formation. To test our theory we analyze data collected from members and non-members of PRODERT, a program that has helped create 188 "Cajas Rurales" (CRs). Using conjoint analysis we test for differences in preferences between members and non-members for the main attributes of the CR. We find that members and non-members exhibit similar preferences for the attributes of the CR; therefore non-membership is not related to supply factors. Using information gathered by executing field experiments, we estimate a proxy for social distance. We use this proxy to run a group formation equation and find that it explains, along with individual characteristics, participation in the CR. Finally we offer suggestions on how to balance performance and coverage in programs in which beneficiaries decide who joins. Small cohesive groups may show exceptional performance at the cost of low coverage, and the opposite may be true.
The Causes and Effects of Commercial Bank Participation in the Federal Home Loan Bank System
Frizell, Julie Dolan (Virginia Tech, 2002-10-10)
The 1990s saw significant increases in commercial bank membership in the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System and extensive growths in FHLB assets and outstanding advances. Since FHLB policies may enable risk-taking behavior by the System's member institutions, this research evaluates the impact of the FHLBs on community bank members, local consumers, and local markets. Results suggest that commercial bank liquidity is enhanced by and managed with the use of System advances, and investments in loans and mortgage-related assets increase with FHLB participation, particularly by small bank members. Credit quality and bank financial conditions improve after participating in the FHLB program, and cost savings from borrowing System funds may contribute to higher rates paid on deposits in local markets. However, banks with greater exposure to interest rate risk are more likely to become FHLB members, and interest rate risk exposure further increases after membership attainment, as the amount of advances borrowed increases, and the longer members remain in the FHLB program. Long-term advances have not been used to lengthen liability duration to offset growth in long-term asset investments, which makes the FHLB System more highly susceptible to rising rates.
Charitable giving and federal income tax policy: additional evidence based on panel-data elasticity estimates
Barrett, Kevin Stanton (Virginia Tech, 1991-08-12)
Nearly all traditional charitable-giving studies conclude donors are more responsive to price-reducing charitable deductions (the price effect) than they are to income-reducing tax payments (the income effect). Thus, taxes stimulate giving. In addition, this empirical evidence also indicates that the charitable deduction is treasury efficient. This traditional understanding was recently challenged by studies employing observations on the same individuals across time (panel data). These panel studies provide evidence which suggest that donors are either much more responsive to income reducing tax payments than they are to price-reducing charitable deductions or just as responsive to both. Further, price elasticity estimates are much greater than negative one. Thus, the deduction is inefficient and giving is either neutral to, or inhibited by, taxes.
China's Paper Industry: Growth and Environmental Policy during Economic Reform
Xu, Jintao (Virginia Tech, 1999-07-07)
This dissertation examines the performance of China's pulp and paper industry under environmental regulations, and reflects on the implementation of the regulations, and especially on market-based instruments. The dissertation includes two empirical chapters: one uses a frontier production function model to examine the impact of China's environmental policy on paper mills' environmental as well as efficiency performance; the other derives shadow prices for pollutants for the same group of mills, based on a distance function model, to examine the efficiency performance of current pollution control policy and the degree of regional variation in the policy enforcement. The basic conclusion from the first empirical chapter is that the economic instrument-pollution levy system-can be an effective tool in inducing polluting mills to abate their pollution, and there is no strong evidence that the instrument adversely affected the mills' efficiency performance. The reason that the pollution problem is not lessening over time can be largely attributed to allocative inefficiency and regional disparity in policy enforcement, as is demonstrated by the second empirical chapter. These results should point future policy in the direction of better enforcement and/or the trial of a tradable permit system.
Competitiveness of Virginia dairy producers in a national setting given changing marketing and policy conditions
Nubern, Chris (Virginia Tech, 1996)
The objective of this study is to determine Virginia dairy producers’ competitiveness in an industry that is experiencing changing policy and marketing conditions. The competitiveness of Virginia dairy producers is examined in a National Dairy Model that compares both producers’ cost of production across market areas and spatial relationships among producers and consumers. The National Dairy Model (NDM) is a mathematical programming model that minimizes the total costs of producing milk and the assembly costs of shipping dairy products to the final consumer. A state's cost of production in the NDM is determined with a translog cost function. The cost functions are estimated with data collected in the 1989 and 1993 dairy versions of the Farm Costs and Returns Survey (FCRS). The supply and demand information in the NDM is annual data for 1994. Transportation costs are determined with current hauling rates and actual mileage between supply and demand points. Once the costs of production and spatial components of the NDM are formulated, the NDM is solved using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). The NDM is evaluated under the guidelines of several different scenarios. For example, some alternative marketing scenarios that provide important information about the future of the dairy industry are (1) simulations where the hauling rates are varied, (2) scenarios in which the U.S. becomes a major participant in the export market, and (3) situations where the marketing environment leads to increasing costs of production. Another alternative scenario involves only the spatial dimension of the NDM. Given the current marketing conditions in the dairy industry, the results of the NDM indicate that Virginia dairy producers are competitive in a marketing environment where the location of milk production is determined by a producer's costs of production and location advantages. Using Virginia's translog cost function, the cost per cwt. at the mean of the FCRS production data is $10.60. The cost estimate applies to Virginia's representative dairy farm where the average herd size is 91 cows and annual production per cow is 14,160 pounds. With these estimates and the fact that Virginia producers are near large population centers, the results of the NDM show that Virginia dairy farms are competitive in a deregulated market.
Credit risk-rating system for agricultural leases
Jarvis, Marilyn Adams (Virginia Tech, 1992-12-05)
Agricultural leases issued to forestry, dairy and cash crops operators from 1980-1992 are reviewed to determine factors statistically significant in predicting risk level (probability of default and/or probability of late payment) of the lessee for each industry. From a previous study of Telmark, 1990, literature review and the Recommendations of the Farm Financial Standards Task Force financial, operator/lessee and farmer/operator variables are selected for analysis. Data obtained from Telmark,Inc. are used to develop a model to explain lease risk level of the forestry, dairy, and crops industries. Results show that for forestry the following financial, lessee/operator, and farmer/operator variables are useful in determining riskiness: operating expense to revenue, cash flow coverage, capital turnover, years in business, gross revenue, and owner's equity. The dairy results indicate that the following variables are important: current ratio, cash flow coverage, return on assets, capital turnover, operating expense to revenue, FHA loan secured, owner's equity, and gross revenue. The crop results indicate percent equity, current ratio, cash flow coverage ratio, return on assets, capital turnover, operating expense to revenue, interest to income, real estate owned, years in business, FHA loan-secured, and owner's equity are significant variables for determining lease risk. Using the results from these models, a weighted average cost of misclassifying a lease is calculated. This is used to develop a profit maximizing criterion for determining whether a lease is high or low risk. The need for future work is discussed. In the area of weighted average cost of misclassifying a lease, additional information on the costs of leasing and riskiness of the population would aid in reducing the misclassified leases in the portfolio. Further study exploring some of the unexpected results in this study would be beneficial to both the lessee and the lessor.
The determinants of the market reaction to an announcement of a change in auditor
Albrecht, William David (Virginia Tech, 1990-01-11)
The Securities and Exchange Conunission (1974) has stated that the one of the fundamental underpinnings of federal securities law is the external auditor opinion of registrant financial statements. The SEC believes that the corporate practice of voluntary auditor change may be perceived by the investing public as attempted opinion shopping. The monitoring hypothesis of Jensen and Meckling (1976), on the other hand, posits that companies may change auditors in an attempt to control net agency costs. The objective of this dissertation is determine if the monitoring hypothesis is descriptive of the phenomenon of voluntary auditor change. The monitoring hypothesis posits that changes in net agency costs are related to the change in auditor quality at the time of an auditor change. and that both changes in agency costs and change in auditor quality are related to the market reaction to the auditor change. Auditor changes from 1980 to 1986 for New York Stock Exchange and American Stock Exchange companies were analyzed. The results indicate that changes in agency costs are related to change in auditor quality, as measured by the difference, from the old auditor to the new, in the auditor's share of the industry audit fees for the company that is changing auditors. Significant variables that measure changes in agency costs aregrowth in company sales, change in long-term compensation plans, and change in the dividend payout ratio. The results also indicate that changes in agency costs are related to market reaction to a change in auditors, but that the change in auditor quality is not. Variables that are significant in explaining the relationship are change in the debt ratio, change in the holdings of the largest stockholder, and prior receipt of a qualified opinion or disclosure of a disagreement between the company and the previous auditor. The results provide strong support for the monitoring hypothesis and weak support for the opinion shopping hypothesis.
The Economic Implications of Proposed Changes in the Retail Meat Pricing Series
Lensing, Christine (Virginia Tech, 2002-09-13)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has historically collected retail meat prices from various supermarkets to use in its calculation of the Consumer Price Index. The Economic Research Service (ERS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture is responsible for reporting retail meat prices, which it acquires from the BLS. The Mandatory Price Reporting legislation of 1999 mandated that the ERS develop and report a more extensive set of retail meat prices. The legislative initiative of 1999 came about due to the absence of prices for some species and classes of meat as well as the growing and pervasive belief that BLS price series were incorrect, inaccurate, or were at the very least not accounting for the large volume of meat sales at special and/or discounted prices. The main purpose of this thesis project was to identify some of the major data shortcomings of the current retail meat price series that should be addressed in the restructuring of a new price reporting system. A survey was administered to retail meat price users to establish which shortcomings in the historical retail meat price series they consider to be the most significant. The other aspect of this study was concerned with analyzing weekly retail scanner meat price data for five beef cuts to establish the impact of quantity-weighting on the mean and variance of the retail meat price series, as well as the own-price elasticity parameter.
The Effects of Conservation Easements on Land Values
Zhang, Xiaowei (Virginia Tech, 2004-05-05)
The Conservation easement has become a popular tool for land protection in the past few decades. Whether this development restriction will necessarily decrease the land value is an empirical question. This study employs a hedonic pricing approach to test empirically the effects of conservation easements on land values. The econometric results indicate that conservation easements can slightly increase the land values, but the effect is statistically insignificance. Considering the limited dataset, the interpretation of the results warrant some caution.
Essays on Fertility and the Economy in Venezuela
Maza Duerto, Octavio (Virginia Tech, 2003-01-31)
The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the relationship between fertility rates and the economy in Venezuela. In particular, it looks at the extreme fluctuations in oil revenues, Venezuela's main source of income, in the 1970s and their impact on fertility. It uses the 1998 National Survey of Population and Family collected in Venezuela by The Central Office of Statistics and Information to estimate a Poisson model of total fertility by union cohort and to empirically investigate changes in childbearing patterns. The results show that compared to the 1967-1968 union cohort, all subsequent union cohorts decline in total fertility in the first 14 years after entering the first union. This finding raises the possibility that the period fertility rate stall and reversal of the 1970s are not associated with rises in total fertility. Further, the simple two period model of fertility timing developed for this study illustrates how females may change their fertility timing by responding to temporary changes in income, either through changes in wages or changes in the amount of transfers. Also, the duration analysis presents differences in childbearing patterns where the boom cohort seems to be at a higher risk of an additional child for lower parities, but at a lower risk for higher parities when compared to the bust cohort. These differences seem to remain even after controlling for individual characteristics or secular changes between the two cohorts. This study is important, because it highlights how sharp and short changes in economic conditions faced by a Venezuelan household induce a change in the timing of birth, thereby creating unexpected moves in the period fertility rates. Understanding the source of these moves can help to plan for them in the future.
Ethnicity and Clothing Expenditures of U.S. Households: A Structural Equations Model with Latent Quality Variables
Plassmann, Vandana Shah (Virginia Tech, 2000-08-29)
The main objective of this study was to determine the relationship between household characteristics and the expenditure shares allocated among various categories of women's clothing for U.S. households belonging to different ethnic groups. The study also estimated unobserved latent quality variables based on household characteristics, and examined the effects of the latent quality variables on the expenditure shares for the various apparel categories. A Multiple Indicator-Multiple Cause Model, which is a special case of the general Structural Equations Model, was used to estimate separate Engel equations for 15 expenditure shares for women's clothing categories, for four different ethnic groups. The results of the study showed that household characteristics had a significant impact on the latent quality variables associated with different categories of women's clothing, and the latent quality variables themselves impacted the clothing expenditure shares. Also, for different ethnic groups, household characteristics had differing effects on women's clothing expenditure shares. Of all the characteristics examined, annual total household expenditures and numbers of children and adults in the household had significant effects on the largest numbers of latent quality variables associated with the clothing categories for the four ethnic groups. The socio-economic variables also significantly affected several clothing expenditure shares for the four ethnic groups. These results imply that socio-economic variables impact consumers' quality choices, and presumably prices paid, for women's clothing. The results support the conclusions of Paulin (1998), and Wagner and Soberon-Ferrer (1990), in that different ethnic groups have distinct expenditure patterns possibly due to differences in socio-economic characteristics; such characteristics may signify resources and constraints faced by a household. The distinct expenditure patterns and tastes of the four ethnic groups are reflected in the significantly different effects of annual total expenditures on the expenditure shares for each category of women's clothing, as well as in the significantly different effects of the latent quality variables on several expenditure shares, for the four ethnic groups.
An examination of specification error in modern United States growth processes
Rosenberry, Lisa A. (Virginia Tech, 1995)
This dissertation involves an empirical reexamination of US growth with the purpose of explaining growth usually attributed to advances in productivity. First, retaining the assumption of exogenous technological progress, I attempt to improve upon existing empirical models through new functional form assumptions. Next, I employ recent models of endogenous growth. Later chapters explore the issues of nonstationarity and international dependence. A significant generalization of the Gumbel Exponential distribution is developed and applied to the statistical modeling of economic growth. My chief objective is to characterize more accurately recent growth experience so that we may determine the most effective policy actions. Current empirical studies of growth behavior have concentrated on a cross sectional approach. I believe, in addition, much can be learned about individual growth processes through a time series approach. This approach avoids many complicated issues in cross sectional analysis including changes in institutions within and between countries. Better understanding the nature of growth in a particular country and relating this process to other nations should yield valuable insight into the nature of growth, convergence and divergence and provide implications for public policy. Many empirical studies have downplayed the crucial issue of examining the data in order to find the most appropriate econometric model specification. Through misspecification testing, we can identify and avoid faulty assumptions. Instead of viewing our data set as uncooperative, we should value the rich information our data contain. If our usual specification assumptions are invalid, more information can be extracted from our series through the inclusion of additional variables or through a Maximum Likelihood approach based upon an alternative distribution. This is the approach I follow in reexamining commonly utilized US input and output series. Utilizing the statistical and graphical abilities of the computer packages GAUSS and MATLAB, I am able to examine both graphically and analytically the validity of various assumptions about the underlying distributions of the data. With this approach, I can show that the Solow Residual contains a great deal of additional information about the dynamic pattern of growth of macroeconomic aggregates.
An exploration of the effects of data aggregation and other factors on empirical estimates of market power
Jones, Rodney D. (Virginia Tech, 1995-01-05)
Econometric studies of firm-level behavior are gaining acceptance among some industrial organization economists. This is a potentially useful tool for detecting noncompetitive behavior. Policy makers and antitrust enforcement officials are interested in the results of these studies as they are applied to specific industries to help enforce current antitrust regulations and develop new policies. These New Empirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) econometric behavioral studies typically require detailed price, quantity, and cost data regarding the industry being studied. The models used are derived from the profit maximization problem of individual firms. In spite of this fact, many previous studies have relied on publicly available industry aggregate data, often also aggregated over time to the quarterly or yearly-level. This study investigates the sensitivity of empirical estimates of market power obtained from econometric conjectural variations studies to the level data aggregation used for the analysis. In addition, the sensitivity of the results to model specification is also explored. The focus of this study is on measurement of oligopsony power in the U. S. beef packing/processing industry. Using Monte Carlo techniques, weekly plant or firm-level data are simulated to be representative of the U. S. beef packing industry in two broadly defined geographical procurement regions. To broaden the scope of the experiment, the assumed underlying technology of the beef packing industry is varied across a broad range of possibilities. In addition, alternative assumptions regarding the conduct of industry participants in the live cattle procurement market are imposed on the data generation process. The disaggregate data sets are aggregated over plants and firms to weekly industry aggregates, and over time to quarterly industry aggregates. At each level of aggregation, the data are tested using 3 alternative specifications of an NEIO econometric market power testing model, that differ by functional form. Results of the tests are compared across aggregation levels, and across model specifications. The results reveal that in general the actual size of the test of the null hypothesis of no market power is much higher than the chosen nominal size of the test. The power of the test for market power is quite high. Data aggregation tends to bias the results of tests for market power. In addition, an adequately flexible functional form must be specified to capture the underlying technology of the industry when using econometric methods to test for market power. Therefore, in order to be useful for antitrust policy enforcement, econometric behavioral studies must make use of detailed firm (or plant )-level disaggregate data, and must use carefully specified models.
Financial Liberalization, Competition and Sound Banking: Theoretical and Empirical Essays
Chen, Xiaofen (Virginia Tech, 2001-07-31)
Previous studies seem to agree that increased competition would cause riskier banking behavior. This dissertation shows that when competition intensifies, banks have greater incentives for screening loan applicants, and thus loan quality may improve. In addition, competition fosters banks to rely less on collateral requirements. Hence, banks may be less vulnerable to asset price shocks. The empirical chapter finds evidence of loan quality improvement after removing cross-border entry restrictions in the EU. There is also evidence that banks' behavior across EU countries has converged.

Browsing by Author "McGuirk, Anya M."

Results Per Page

Sort Options