Browsing by Author "Mortazavigazar, Amir"
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- 10 Ways to Make an Accessible Collaborative Environment for People with DisabilitiesMortazavigazar, Amir (Virginia Tech Global Change Center, 2022-10-07)
- A Tale of Two States: Comparing Implementation of NEPA in Virginia and CaliforniaMortazavigazar, Amir (Virginia Tech Global Change Center, 2023-03-20)
- Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Virtual Energy AssessmentMortazavigazar, Amir; Wahba, Nourehan; Newsham, Paul; Triharta, Maharti; Zheng, Pufan; Chen, Tracy; Rismanchi, Behzad (MDPI)A Virtual energy assessment (VEA) refers to the assessment of the energy flow in a building without physical data collection. It has been occasionally conducted before the COVID-19 pandemic to residential and commercial buildings. However, there is no established framework method for conducting this type of energy assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has catalysed the implementation of remote energy assessments and remote facility management. In this paper, a novel framework for VEA is developed and tested on case study buildings at the University of Melbourne. The proposed method is a hybrid of top-down and bottom-up approaches: gathering the general information of the building and the historical data, in addition to investigating and modelling the electrical consumption with artificial neural network (ANN) with a projection of the future consumption. Through sensitivity analysis, the outdoor temperature was found to be the most sensitive (influential) parameter to electrical consumption. The lockdown of the buildings provided invaluable opportunities to assess electrical baseload with zero occupancies and usage of the building. Furthermore, comparison of the baseload with the consumption projection through ANN modelling accurately quantifies the energy consumption attributed to occupation and operational use, referred to as ‘operational energy’ in this paper. Differentiation and quantification of the baseload and operational energy may aid in energy conservation measures that specifically target to minimise these two distinct energy consumptions.
- Canadian hydroelectricity imports to the U.S.; Modeling of hourly carbon emissions reduction in New EnglandMortazavigazar, Amir; Calder, Ryan S. D.; Howarth, Rich B.; Jackson, Chloe A.; Mavrommati, Georgia (2024-04-05)United States’ hydroelectricity imports from Canada have increased by > 1 TWh per year between 2007 and 2021. This occurs as policymakers in the U.S. try to ramp up the deployment of new carbon free electricity generation and transmission infrastructure. Furthermore, recent modeling in the northeast U.S. demonstrates that Canadian hydroelectricity will play a significant role in New England’s least-cost decarbonization scenario. Additionally, decarbonization targets are well- defined in all states within the New England region, making it a priority. Consequently, it is anticipated that more hydroelectricity will flow from Canada into New England, resulting in the expansion of transborder electricity interconnections. To characterize the costs and benefits of such projects as compared to alternatives, a high-resolution simulation (i.e., hourly) of the electric grid is needed. In this study, we utilize the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's dataset on hourly electricity generation and carbon emissions. Using pre-established decarbonization scenarios, we can calculate the precise reduction in greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions for each scenario. Our preliminary results demonstrate that the scenario projection for 2026–2027 by New England ISO, which involves a combination of Canadian hydroelectric imports (2100 MW summer, 826 MW winter), new wind (308 MW summer and 682 MW), and solar (92 MW summer, 28 MW winter) generation commitments, can effectively offset carbon emissions in New England. These results further support the current decarbonization policy, which relies on a diversified mix of carbon free electricity sources.
- Canadian hydropower and the U.S. energy transition: controversies, opportunities, and strategic research directionsCalder, Ryan S. D.; Borsuk, Mark E.; Mortazavigazar, Amir; Howarth, Richard B.; Jackson, Chloe; Mavrommati, Georgia (2023-12-13)Recent modeling for the northeast United States suggests that the least-cost decarbonization pathway involves a combination of build-out of domestic renewables generation and increased intertie capacity with Canada. U.S. imports of Canadian hydropower have increased by > 1 TWh per year between 2007–2021 because it is a cost-effective and low-carbon alternative to domestic fossil fuel generation. Yet, increased interconnection capacity and imports are controversial and have been opposed by U.S. environmental groups and members of the public. Development of new hydroelectric reservoirs disrupts foodways and lifeways of Indigenous populations and has greenhouse gas impacts greater than wind and solar (though less than fossil fuel alternatives). Two recently cancelled hydropower transmission projects linking New England and Quebec, Canada demonstrate the need to better understand the gap between pathways that appear optimal from the perspective of energy systems modeling and the pathways that will ultimately be socially and environmentally acceptable. The experience of the northeast mirrors that in other parts of the U.S. where substantial resources have been invested in pursuit of renewable projects that are ultimately abandoned following mobilization of stakeholders with adverse interests or values. A research program integrating environmental and economic modeling seeks to resolve controversies surrounding the use of Canadian hydropower in U.S. energy transitions. This includes conceptual disputes over valuation of hydropower from existing reservoirs in cost-benefit analysis; debates over whether new transmission infrastructure stimulates new generation capacity; and analysis of the relative importance of different benefits and impacts to the public.
- Causal inference to scope environmental impact assessment in multisector systems: the case of trans-border hydropower exportsMortazavigazar, Amir; Calder, Ryan S. D. (2022-12-15)Decarbonization of the United States’ electricity sector will require trillions of dollars of investment in generation and transmission infrastructure. The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires proponents of many major projects to complete environmental impact statements (EIS) that address reasonably foreseeable impacts, regardless of where these impacts occur. There has been controversy over the cause-effect relationships among electrical supply, electrical demand, apparent cost, and other variables given the complex interactions between them. Therefore, the range of environmental impacts attributable to new infrastructure projects is subject to frequent disagreements. In this work, we address increasing U.S. imports of Canadian hydropower in the setting of falling prices and surplus generation. There has been controversy as to whether new transmission capacity stimulates new generation capacity, and thus whether generation-side environmental and health impacts must be assessed in the scope of incremental transmission projects. We have developed a rich longitudinal database of variables related to generation capacity, export volume, retail prices, and climate over the period 1979 to 2021. We have applied a novel multivariable wide neural network machine learning methodology to evaluate alternative causal models for the evolution of the electricity system and the role of new transmission infrastructure. We find no evidence that transmission capacity stimulates generation capacity. Rather, generation capacity growth in Canada is triggered primarily by domestic price signals and climate parameters, with trans-border transmission capacity developed primarily to absorb excess generation potential. This work supports a relatively narrow scope for EIS related to trans-border transmission projects. More generally, this analysis demonstrates how causal inference methods may help build consensus around the appropriate scope of EIS for highly interconnected energy and infrastructure projects.
- Emerging nuclear energy technologies: An alternative path to Australia's energy securityMortazavigazar, Amir (Menzies Research Centre, 2023-12-18)
- How the Climate Change Threat is Shifting Australia's National Counter-Terrorism StrategyMortazavigazar, Amir (2023-03-08)In this paper, we analyse how extremism and acts of terror will manifest themselves in Australia over the upcoming decades. Australia maintains a robust counter-terrorism strategy along with a comprehensive security apparatus to support that strategy. However, it is becoming apparent to the Australian intelligence community and the Australian government that the national security challenges that Australia will be facing due to climate change have been neglected over the past few years. COVID-19 restrictions demonstrated that issue-motivated extremism can fuel acts of terror and assist violent extremist organisations in their recruitment and radicalisations. In this paper, we demonstrate how climate change mitigation policies can result in issue-motivated extremism and empower violent extremist organisations which can result in acts of terror that would jeopardise Australia’s national security, therefore, we recommend that Australia’s National Intelligence apparatus broaden the issue-motivated extremism purview of terrorism by including climate change related grievances. Furthermore, we recommend amending Australia’s social cohesion and value statements to alleviate climate change related grievances and raise awareness about the threats of climate change related extremism.
- Integrating health, economic, and environmental trade-offs into decarbonization decision-making in New EnglandMortazavigazar, Amir (2024-05-15)
- Integrating health, economic, and environmental trade-offs into decarbonization decision-making in New England using enhanced capacity expansion modelingMortazavigazar, Amir; Calder, Ryan S. D.; Howarth, Richard B.; Jackson, Chloe A.; Mavrommati, Georgia (2024-07-15)