Browsing by Author "Ning, Xin"

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    New Estimates of the Ad-valorem Equivalent of SPS Measures: Evidence from Specific Trade Concerns
    Ning, Xin; Grant, Jason H. (Center for Agricultural Trade, 2019-10)
    Countries maintain a large and diverse set of non-tariff measures (NTMs) to safeguard the health of plants, animals and humans. However, policymakers and regulatory bodies often neglect the potential adverse trade effects of non-tariff measures. Despite a large literature investigating the trade flow effects of NTMs, less is known about the extent to which sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures raised trade concerns by exporters reduce exporting countries' agricultural and food trade to importing markets maintaining these measures. This study utilizes the World Trade Organization's (WTO) SPS specific trade concerns database to identify economically meaningful and potentially consequential SPS measures on members' trade. We develop a product-line structural gravity model to estimate the trade effects of non-tariff SPS measures flagged as concerns by the top 30 agricultural exporting and importing countries covering products in meat, dairy, fruits & vegetables, and cereals & preparations. Results indicate that trade losses due to SPS measures of concern are significant, both globally and for specific countries, sectors and individual SPS measures. Conservatively, our estimates imply a 68% reduction in agricultural trade during years in which SPS measures of concern were active. Moreover, the estimated ad-valorem protection imposed by SPS trade concern measures ranges from a 33% to 106% equivalent tariff, on average. Significant heterogeneity in the estimated AVE of SPS measures exists across countries. Comparing SPS measures maintained by U.S., EU and China on imports, presents a rather stark asymmetric picture, with ad-valorem tariff equivalents of U.S. SPS measures estimated at 41%, compared to 76.4% and 130% ad-valorem equivalent protection imposed by SPS measures maintained by the EU and China, respectively. Finally, we identified six case-study SPS measures of concern to take a closer look at their trade impacts. These included (i) EU Aflatoxin limits on groundnuts and cereals; (ii) EU GMOs policies on cereal grains; (iii) BSE restrictions on beef (various countries); (iv) Japan’s positive list MRL standards; (v) Ractopamine restrictions on pork; and (vi) China’s restrictions on Avian Influenza in poultry. Results indicate that China's restrictions on poultry imports due to Avian Influenza concerns and EU, China, Russia, Taiwan, and Thailand zero tolerance for ractopamine in pork exports are the most prohibitive standards, with AVE tariffs 120.3% and 88.9%, respectively.
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    Three Essays on Agricultural Trade Policy
    Ning, Xin (Virginia Tech, 2019-11-27)
    This dissertation consists of three essays examining the impacts of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Measures on agricultural trade. The first essay estimates the impact of the 2003 Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) outbreak in the US on Japanese beef imports. I develop a source-differentiated demand system of fresh/chilled and frozen beef imports augmented with endogenous smooth transition functions. Results suggest that over one-half of the estimated income, own-price, and cross-price elasticities reached a new regime in the post-BSE period of Japanese beef imports where the competitive relationship and substitutability between US and Australian beef exports changed significantly. The second essay develops a product-line structural gravity model to estimate the trade flow effects of SPS measures that have been flagged as specific trade concerns in the World Trade Organization's (WTO's) SPS Committee meetings for the top 30 agricultural trading countries covering four major product sectors. Our findings are striking and call attention to the need for a deeper understanding of the impacts of SPS measures on WTO members' agricultural trade. Results show that the trade effects of SPS trade concern measures reduce exporters' agricultural trade by 67%, on average, during periods in which concerns were active. Significant heterogeneity in the trade effect of SPS measures exists with average estimated ad valorem equivalent tariffs ranging from 33% to 106%. The AVE effect of SPS concern measures maintained by the US is estimated at 42%, less than a half (a third) of the AVE effects of SPS concern measures imposed by the European Union (China). China's restrictions on Avian Influenza and ractopamine restrictions in pork exports are estimated to be the most prohibitive, causing an AVE effect of 120.3% and 88.9%, respectively. The third essay develops a discrete-time duration model to examine the extent to which these SPS concern measures affect the hazard rate of US agri-food exports during the 1995-2016 period. Results show that SPS concern measures raise the hazard rate of US agri-food exports by a range of 2.1%~15.3%, causing the predicted hazard rate to increase from 21.8% to a range of 23.6%~27.9%. This effect is heterogeneous across different agricultural sectors, with the most substantial effects occurring in US exports of meat, fruits, and vegetables.
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    Trade Elasticities and Trade Disputes: New Evidence from Tariffs and Relative Preference Margins
    Grant, Jason H.; Ning, Xin; Peterson, Everett B. (Center for Agricultural Trade, 2018-08)