Browsing by Author "Phelan, Jennifer N."

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    Climate Change Could Negate U.S. Forest Ecosystem Services Benefits Gained Through Reductions in Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition
    Phelan, Jennifer N.; Van Houtven, George; Clark, Christopher M.; Buckley, John; Cajka, James; Hargrave, Ashton; Horn, Kevin; Thomas, R. Quinn; Sabo, Robert D. (Nature Portfolio, 2024-05-10)
    Climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) impact the health and productivity of forests. Here, we explored the potential impacts of these environmental stressors on ecosystem services provided by future forests in the contiguous U.S. We found that all stand-level services benefitted (+ 2.6 to 8.1%) from reductions in N+S deposition, largely attributable to positive responses to reduced S that offset the net negative effects of lower N levels. Sawtimber responded positively (+ 0.5 to 0.6%) to some climate change, but negatively (− 2.4 to − 3.8%) to the most extreme scenarios. Aboveground carbon (C) sequestration and forest diversity were negatively impacted by all modelled changes in climate. Notably, the most extreme climate scenario eliminated gains in all three services achieved through reduced deposition. As individual tree species responded differently to climate change and atmospheric deposition, associated services unique to each species increased or decreased under future scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change should be considered when evaluating the benefits of N and S air pollution policies on the services provided by U.S. forests.
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    Growth and survival relationships of 71 tree species with nitrogen and sulfur deposition across the conterminous U.S.
    Horn, Kevin J.; Thomas, R. Quinn; Clark, Christopher M.; Pardo, Linda H.; Fenn, Mark E.; Lawrence, Gregory B.; Perakis, Steven S.; Smithwick, Erica A. H.; Baldwin, Douglas; Braun, Sabine; Nordin, Annika; Perry, Charles H.; Phelan, Jennifer N.; Schaberg, Paul G.; St. Clair, Samuel B.; Warby, Richard; Watmough, Shaun (PLOS, 2018-10-18)
    Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) influences forest demographics and carbon (C) uptake through multiple mechanisms that vary among tree species. Prior studies have estimated the effects of atmospheric N deposition on temperate forests by leveraging forest inventory measurements across regional gradients in deposition. However, in the United States (U.S.), these previous studies were limited in the number of species and the spatial scale of analysis, and did not include sulfur (S) deposition as a potential covariate. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of how tree growth and survival for 71 species vary with N and S deposition across the conterminous U.S. Our analysis of 1,423,455 trees from forest plots inventoried between 2000 and 2016 reveals that the growth and/or survival of the vast majority of species in the analysis (n = 66, or 93%) were significantly affected by atmospheric deposition. Species co-occurred across the conterminous U.S. that had decreasing and increasing relationships between growth (or survival) and N deposition, with just over half of species responding negatively in either growth or survival to increased N deposition somewhere in their range (42 out of 71). Averaged across species and conterminous U.S., however, we found that an increase in deposition above current rates of N deposition would coincide with a small net increase in tree growth (1.7% per Δ kg N ha-1 yr-1), and a small net decrease in tree survival (-0.22% per Δ kg N ha-1 yr-1), with substantial regional and among-species variation. Adding S as a predictor improved the overall model performance for 70% of the species in the analysis. Our findings have potential to help inform ecosystem management and air pollution policy across the conterminous U.S., and suggest that N and S deposition have likely altered forest demographics in the U.S.
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    Nitrogen deposition and climate change effects on tree species composition and ecosystem services for a forest cohort
    Van Houtven, George L.; Phelan, Jennifer N.; Clark, Christopher M.; Sabo, Robert D.; Buckley, John; Thomas, R. Quinn; Horn, Kevin J.; LeDuc, Stephen D. (2019-05)
    The composition of forests in the northeastern United States and the ecosystem services they provide to future generations will depend on several factors. In this paper, we isolate the effects of two environmental drivers, nitrogen (N) deposition and climate (temperature and precipitation) change, through an analysis of a single cohort of 24 dominant tree species. We assembled a tree database using data from U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis monitoring plots. Applying observed species-specific growth and survival responses, we simulated how forest stands in a 19-state study area would change from 2005 to 2100 under 12 different future N deposition-climate scenarios. We then estimated implications for three selected forest ecosystem services: merchantable timber, aboveground carbon sequestration, and tree diversity. Total tree biomass (for 24 species combined) was positively associated with both increased N deposition and temperatures; however, due to differences in the direction and magnitude of species-specific responses, forest composition varied across scenarios. For example, red maple (Acer rubrum) trees gained biomass under scenarios with more N deposition and more climate change, whereas biomass of yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis) and red pine (Pinus resinosa) was negatively affected. Projections for ecosystem services also varied across scenarios. Carbon sequestration, which is positively associated with biomass accumulation, increased with N deposition and increasing climate change. Total timber values also increased with overall biomass; however, scenarios with increasing climate change tended to favor species with lower merchantable value, whereas more N deposition favored species with higher merchantable value. Tree species diversity was projected to decrease with greater changes in climate (warmer temperatures), especially in the northwestern, central, and southeastern portions of the study area. In contrast, the effects of N deposition on diversity varied greatly in magnitude and direction across the study area. This study highlights species-specific and regional effects of N deposition and climate change in northeastern U.S. forests, which can inform management decision for air quality and forests in the region, as well as climate policy. It also provides a foundation for future studies that may incorporate other important factors such as multiple cohorts, sulfur deposition, insects, and diseases.
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    Regional variation in growth and survival responses to atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur deposition for 140 tree species across the United States
    Dalton, Rebecca M.; Miller, Jesse N.; Greaver, Tara; Sabo, Robert D.; Austin, Kemen G.; Phelan, Jennifer N.; Thomas, R. Quinn; Clark, Christopher M. (Frontiers, 2024-11-11)
    Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) alter tree demographic processes via changes in nutrient pools, soil acidification, and biotic interactions. Previous work established tree growth and survival response to atmospheric N and S deposition in the conterminous United States (CONUS) data by species; however, it was not possible to evaluate regional variation in response using that approach. In this study, we develop species- and region-specific relationships for growth and survival responses to N and S deposition for roughly 140 species within spatially demarcated regions of the U.S. We calculated responses to N and S deposition separately for 11 United States Forest Service (USFS) Divisions resulting in a total of 241 and 268 species × Division combinations for growth and survival, respectively. We then assigned these relationships into broad categories of vulnerability and used ordinal logistic regressions to explore the covariates associated with vulnerability in growth and survival to N and S deposition. As with earlier studies, we found growth and survival responses to air pollution differed by species; but new to this study, we found 45%−70% of species responses also varied spatially across regions. The regional variation in species responses was not simply related to atmospheric N and S deposition, but was also associated with regional effects from precipitation, soil pH, mycorrhizal association, and deciduousness. A large amount of the variance remained unexplained (total variation explained ranged from 6.8%−13.8%), suggesting that these or additional factors may operate at finer spatial scales. Taken together, our results demonstrate that regional variation in tree species' response has significant implications for setting critical load targets, as critical loads can now be tailored for specific species at management-relevant scales.