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Browsing by Author "Rauscher, S. A."

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    Changes in timing of the South American Monsoon?
    Seth, Anji; Rojas, M. H.; Rauscher, S. A. (2008)
    The World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 3 (CMIP3) dataset employed in this analysis of South American climate projections through the 21st century. Warm season rains associated with the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) are critical in the seasonally dry regions of Southeastern Brazil and the Bolivian Altiplano. Changes in the annual cycle of the SAMS are investigated by examining the 20th century model simulations against observations, and then evaluating differences between the projected mid (2030-2059) and late (2070-2099) 21st century climates with that of present day (1970-1999). Analysis emphasizes the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation, with an exploration of the mechanisms involved in changes including moisture transport, sea level pressure and low level winds, particularly the Andes low level jet.
  • CMIP3 projected changes in the annual cycle of the South American monsoon
    Seth, Anji; Rojas, M. H.; Rauscher, S. A. (2010)
    A warmer world will spur many changes in weather patterns and ecosystems. It is critical to predict these changes in order to mitigate their potential negative impacts. The South American monsoon is vulnerable to these changes and their prediction will assist farmers in this region in adapting. In this study, nine CMIP3 models (CCSM3, PCM, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, HadCM3, GFDL CM2, IPSL CM4, HadGEM1, MIROC3.2, CSIRO Mk3) are used to predict changes in onset, precipitation, and location of heaviest rainfall in the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). Despite the variance in model results, statistically significant changes in continental precipitation were revealed. They include reduced spring precipitation, movement in maximum precipitation, and displacement of the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAAC). Further analysis is suggested to fully reveal and understand the impact of climate change on the South American Monsoon.