Browsing by Author "Robinson, Celine"
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- Analysis of environmental and economic impacts of hydropower imports for New York City through 2050Calder, Ryan S. D.; Borsuk, Mark E.; Robinson, Celine (Duke University Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, 2020-10-13)Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC), a nuclear generating facility that has provided roughly 15 TW·h per year of low-emissions power to the New York City area, will close by 2021. There has been debate over the potential responses to the closure of IPEC which include the development of new generation and transmission infrastructure. This derives in part from difficulties in comparing direct and indirect costs and benefits and environmental and social impacts, which vary substantially across energy alternatives. In particular, the potential role of increased imports of hydropower from Canada to the New York City area has been controversial because of large upfront capital costs and uncertain benefits relative to alternatives such as increased build-out of Downstate New York offshore wind and solar.
- Assessing Ecosystem Service Benefits from Military InstallationsKagan, James; Borsuk, Mark E.; Calder, Ryan S. D.; Creutzburg, Megan; Mason, Sara A.; Olander, Lydia P.; Plantinga, Andrew; Robinson, Celine (2019-07-26)Military bases provide substantial ecosystem services to local communities and other members of the public. This project conceptualizes and quantifies ecosystem services provided by U.S. military bases developing an integrated modeling platform called MoTIVES (Model-based Tracking and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services). MoTIVES manages probabilistic simulations of biophysical and economic models for relevant ecosystem services provided by alternative base management scenarios, and then assigns values where valuation is possible. The project demonstrated a proof of concept at Eglin Air Force Base, showing that current management provides approximately $110 million in ecosystem services per year, $40 million more than a scenario where no base was present, and $90 million more than a scenario where no base management was occurring.
- Decarbonization via long-distance transmission of hydropower is cost-effectiveCalder, Ryan S. D.; Robinson, Celine; Borsuk, Mark E. (2021-12-14)Hydropower is associated with substantially lower carbon emissions than fossil fuels and can satisfy baseload electricity demand unlike wind and solar power. In the northern United States, imports of Canadian hydropower account for a large and growing share of the electricity portfolio. For example, in New England, Canadian hydropower increased from 10% to 21% of electricity supplied to consumers between 2010 and 2020. These imports are increasingly dependent on capital-intensive long-distance transmission projects between the Canadian border and U.S. urban centers. While costs of these projects are clearly defined in dollars, benefits accrue in diverse forms, ranging from avoided air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions to reduced fuel and operation costs. This severely complicates cost-benefit analysis and has led to controversy over the role of Canadian hydropower in U.S. renewable energy transitions. We develop a probabilistic, multiattribute economic valuation model to explicitly compare direct and environmental costs and benefits of energy transition scenarios. We apply this model to the New York City area, where the recent closure of a ~2,000 MW nuclear power plant has increased demand for fossil fuel generation, and a proposed $4-billion long-distance hydropower transmission project has caused disagreement among environmental groups and other stakeholders. We find that coupling long-distance hydropower transmission with planned build-out of wind and solar reduces net total costs over 2021-2050 on the order of tens of billions of dollars, primarily due to avoided greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution whose economic value outweighs the added upfront capital costs. Long-distance hydropower transmission averts health and property impacts of air pollution from fossil fuel generators associated with an economic value on the order of hundreds of millions of dollars concentrated in vulnerable communities facing disproportionate environmental risks. These findings are robust to an extensive sensitivity analysis. This model provides a novel, transparent framework for supporting decision-making about long-distance hydropower transmission elsewhere.