Browsing by Author "Rosegrant, Mark W."
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- Commodity price stabilization and trade liberalization: the case of corn and livestock in the PhillippinesPerez, Nicostrato D. (Virginia Tech, 1995)This study was conducted to analyze the impacts of different trade and pricing policies on the grains and livestock sector in the Philippines. Four trade policy alternatives were evaluated: (a) base 1990 trade policies; (b) full trade liberalization in the grains and livestock sector: (c) a uniform 20 percent import tariff system for both grains and livestock commodities; and (d) price stabilization of rice and corn. Two price stabilization instruments, buffer-stock and variable import levy, two target prices, and two price band band widths were evaluated. The economic surplus measure of costs and benefits was used as the basis for economic efficiency comparisons among the different trade and pricing policies. The study simulated the operations of grains and livestock markets in the Philippines. Supply and risk response parameters were estimated with profit function approach using time-series data on prices, production, and input usage. Food demand elasticities were adopted from previous works in the Philippines. A separate set of demand functions were estimated for corn as livestock feed with the use of pseudo-data generated by varying the prices of the different feed ingredients in a process model of least-cost feed rations of hog and poultry. The ten-year period simulations were iterated 250 times, using world prices of wheat, rice, and corn drawn from their historical price distributions along the trend projected by the World Bank. Results of the study revealed that most economic gains can be attained by shifting to full trade liberalization of grains and livestock markets. With full trade liberalization, the economy gains by importing lower priced corn and producing higher-valued livestock products for domestic consumption and exports. The effect of a uniform 20 percent tariff is similar to that of full trade liberalization, but with lesser economic benefits. On the other hand, due to positive supply response to stabilized prices, there are small economic gains that could be achieved by the operation of a stabilization scheme for rice and corn over trade liberalization. These benefits, however, are offset by the heavy financial exposure required from the government. The variable import levy that defends rice and com prices at average expected world prices gives the best results among the different price-stabilization schemes.
- Economic Consequences of Crop Genetic Improvement ProgrammesEvenson, R. E.; Rosegrant, Mark W. (Cambridge, Mass.: CABI Publishing, 2003)This concluding chapter reported two counterfactual economic impact scenarios, using the IFPRI IMPACT model, asking the following questions: 1. How would food prices, food production, food consumption and international food trade have differed in the year 2000 if the developing countries of the world were constrained to have no CGI after 1965, while developed countries realized the CGI that they historically achieved (1965 CGI)? 2. How would food prices, food production, food consumption and international food trade have differed in the year 2000 if the IARC system had not been built, but NARS CGI gains in both developed and developing countries would have been realized (No IARC CGI)? The calculations were based on global market equilibrium outcomes. Tables 23.3 through 23.7 show the two scenarios under prices, production consumption and trade as a percentage of 2000 calculations. Overall, the authors attribute food production expansion to CGI programs, which resulted in per capita food availability. Although CGI gains were not realized evenly nor were they large enough to bring about "convergence" in per capita income between developed and developing countries, they did constitute the beginning stages of the convergence process. The authors conclude that the "escape from poverty" focus indicates that any reduction in support to agricultural projects, specifically those that are designed to improve productivity, will seriously limit efforts to reduce poverty.
- Global food security: Challenges and policiesRosegrant, Mark W.; Cline, S. A. (2003)Global food security will remain a worldwide concern for the next 50 years and beyond. Recently, crop yield has fallen in many areas because of declining investments in research and infrastructure, as well as increasing water scarcity. Climate change and HIV/AIDS are also crucial factors affecting food security in many regions. Although agroecological approaches offer some promise for improving yields, food security in developing countries could be substantially improved by increased investment and policy reforms.
- Investing in agriculture to overcome the world food crisis and reduce poverty and hungerFan, S. A.; Rosegrant, Mark W. (Washington, D.C.: IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute), 2008)In many parts of the world, increased agricultural growth will play a key role in addressing the current world food crisis, in contributing to overall economic growth, and in helping to achieve the first Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of poor and hungry people by 2015 (MDG1). The challenge of meeting MDG1 under the current circumstances is considerable, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).Of the means used to promote agricultural growth, sound government spending can be one of the most direct and effective. This brief presents ranges of estimates of the costs involved using two different approaches. (excerpt from the document)
- The issue of spatial scale in hydro-economic modeling of global and national food and water systems to address sustainable agriculture and natural resources managementStrzepek, Kenneth; McCluskey, Alyssa (Blacksburg, Va.: SANREM CRSP, OIRED, Virginia Tech, 2007)There are numerous models available that aim to address food and water policy at different spatial scales. The question to be asked of these models is "What is the importance of spatial scale on hydro-economic modeling used to address environmental and hunger policy questions?" The research set forth in this document aims to answer not only that question but also take it to another level and evaluate the importance of spatial scale and management on river basin modeling for global food production.
- Rice policies in Sri Lanka: analysis of supply response with endogenous technologyAtapattu, Nihal K. (Virginia Tech, 1996-06-04)Sri Lanka achieved a high level of self-sufficiency in rice in the 1980s through a series of investments on irrigation, technological change, and marketing and trade policies. However, more than two decades of expansion in the international rice market has diminished the validity of rice self-sufficiency policies as an economic development strategy. As a consequence, trends in the international market through their impacts on reducing investments such as rice research, extension, and irrigation development have adversely affected the ability of Sri Lanka to maintain the same levels of rice self-sufficiency in the future. In the domestic policy area however, some degree of indecision exists in undertaking reforms necessary to take advantage of the trends in the international rice economy. Given the overwhelming influence rice has on the direction of national agriculture policies in Sri Lanka, it is critical to resolve this indetemlinacy pertaining to rice policies. The objectives of the present study are to estimate the producers' response to numerous policy variables that impact on the levels of rice production, and the country's ability to manage food-security under a regime of market-friendly policies. A supply response model based on the choice of technique approach with endogenous determination of technology was specified to capture the effects of policy variables on rice output determination. The dynamic effects of technology, prices, and investments on productivity are therefore accounted for in the model. The supply response system is composed of blocks of equations for determination of investment in quasi-fixed inputs, choice of technology, and yields. Data for the period since 1974 during which notable changes took place in the rice supply situation in Sri Lanka were used in the analysis.. Results suggest that a major share of rice output growth in Sri Lanka is explained by the producers' response to government-supplied, technology-related variables such as irrigation and research. Rice supply response to input and output prices was slight relative to the response to technology variables. Model simulations showed that, under a regime of more market friendly policies, continuation of current investment trends and policies would lead to a worsening of rice self-sufficiency levels over the next 10 years. It was also observed that with modest growth in irrigation and research investments, it is possible to maintain rice self-sufficiency at levels comparable to the present.