Browsing by Author "Ross, Andrew C."

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    Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Water Quantity and Quality in an Urban Watershed Using a Calibrated Stormwater Model
    Alamdari, Nasrin; Sample, David J.; Steinberg, Peter; Ross, Andrew C.; Easton, Zachary M. (MDPI, 2017-06-27)
    Assessing climate change (CC) impacts on urban watersheds is difficult due to differences in model spatial and temporal scales, making prediction of hydrologic restoration a challenge. A methodology was developed using an autocalibration tool to calibrate a previously developed Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) of Difficult Run in Fairfax, Virginia. Calibration was assisted by use of multi-objective optimization. Results showed a good agreement between simulated and observed data. Simulations of CC for the 2041–2068 period were developed using dynamically downscaled North American Regional CC Assessment Program models. Washoff loads were used to simulate water quality, and a method was developed to estimate treatment performed in stormwater control measures (SCMs) to assess water quality impacts from CC. CC simulations indicated that annual runoff volume would increase by 6.5%, while total suspended solids, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus would increase by 7.6%, 7.1%, and 8.1%, respectively. The simulations also indicated that within season variability would increase by a larger percentage. Treatment practices (e.g., bioswale) that were intended to mitigate the negative effects of urban development will need to deal with additional runoff volumes and nutrient loads from CC to achieve the required water quality goals.
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    Impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA
    Wagena, Moges B.; Collick, Amy S.; Ross, Andrew C.; Najjar, Raymond G.; Rau, Benjamin; Sommerlot, Andrew R.; Fuka, Daniel R.; Kleinman, Peter J. A.; Easton, Zachary M. (2018-10-01)
    Nutrient export from agricultural landscapes is a water quality concern and the cause of mitigation activities worldwide. Climate change impacts hydrology and nutrient cycling by changing soil moisture, stoichiometric nutrient ratios, and soil temperature, potentially complicating mitigation measures. This research quantifies the impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrology, nutrient cycling, and greenhouse gas emissions in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We force a calibrated model with seven downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate models and derived climate anomalies to assess their impact on hydrology and the export of nitrate (NO3-), phosphorus (P), and sediment, and emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and di-nitrogen (N-2). Modelaverage (+/- standard deviation) results indicate that climate change, through an increase in precipitation and temperature, will result in substantial increases in winter/spring flow (10.6 +/- 12.3%), NO3-(17.3 +/- 6.4%), dissolved P (32.3 +/- 18.4%), total P (24.8 +/- 16.9%), and sediment (25.2 +/- 16.6%) export, and a slight increases in N2O (0.3 +/- 4.8%) and N-2 (0.2 +/- 11.8%) emissions. Conversely, decreases in summer flow (-29.1 +/- 24.6%) and the export of dissolved P (-15.5 +/- 26.4%), total P (-16.3 +/- 20.7%), sediment (-20.7 +/- 18.3%), and NO3-(-29.1 +/- 27.8%) are driven by greater evapotranspiration from increasing summer temperatures. Decreases in N2O (-26.9 +/- 15.7%) and N-2 (-36.6 +/- 22.9%) are predicted in the summer and driven by drier soils. While the changes in flow are related directly to changes in precipitation and temperature, the changes in nutrient and sediment export are, to some extent, driven by changes in agricultural management that climate change induces, such as earlier spring tillage and altered nutrient application timing and by alterations to nutrient cycling in the soil. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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    Water supply and runoff capture reliability curves for hypothetical rainwater harvesting systems for locations across the U.S. for historical and projected climate conditions
    Alamdari, Nasrin; Sample, David J.; Liu, Jia; Ross, Andrew C. (Elsevier, 2018-03-11)
    The data presented in this article are related to the research article entitled “Assessing climate change impacts on the reliability of rainwater harvesting systems” (Alamdari et al., 2018) [1]. This article evaluated the water supply and runoff capture reliability of rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems for locations across the U.S. for historical and projected climate conditions. Hypothetical RWH systems with varying storage volumes, rooftop catchment areas, irrigated areas, and indoor wSater demand based upon population from selected locations were simulated for historical (1971–1998) and projected (2041–2068) periods, the latter dataset was developed using dynamic downscaling of North American Regional Climate Change (CC) Assessment Program (NARCCAP). A computational model, the Rainwater Analysis and Simulation Program (RASP), was used to compute RWH performance with respect to the reliability of water supply and runoff capture. The reliability of water supply was defined as the proportion of demands that are met; and the reliability of runoff capture was defined as the amount stored and reused, but not spilled. A series of contour plots using the four design variables and the reliability metrics were developed for historical and projected conditions. Frequency analysis was also used to characterize the long-term behavior of rainfall and dry duration at each location. The full data set is made publicly available to enable critical or extended analysis of this work.