Browsing by Author "Serrao, Shannon R."

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    Requirements for the containment of COVID-19 disease outbreaks through periodic testing, isolation, and quarantine
    Mukhamadiarov, Ruslan I.; Deng, Shengfeng; Serrao, Shannon R.; Priyanka; Childs, Lauren M.; Täuber, Uwe C. (IOP, 2022-01-21)
    We employ individual-based Monte Carlo computer simulations of a stochastic SEIR model variant on a two-dimensional Newman–Watts small-world network to investigate the control of epidemic outbreaks through periodic testing and isolation of infectious individuals, and subsequent quarantine of their immediate contacts. Using disease parameters informed by the COVID-19 pandemic, we investigate the effects of various crucial mitigation features on the epidemic spreading: fraction of the infectious population that is identifiable through the tests; testing frequency; time delay between testing and isolation of positively tested individuals; and the further time delay until quarantining their contacts as well as the quarantine duration. We thus determine the required ranges for these intervention parameters to yield effective control of the disease through both considerable delaying the epidemic peak and massively reducing the total number of sustained infections.
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    Requirements for the containment of COVID-19 disease outbreaks through periodic testing, isolation, and quarantine
    Serrao, Shannon R.; Deng, Shengfeng; Priyanka; Mukhamadiarov, Ruslan I.; Childs, Lauren M.; Täuber, Uwe C. (Virginia Tech, 2020-10-25)
    We employ individual-based Monte Carlo computer simulations of a stochastic SEIR model variant on a two-dimensional Newman{Watts small-world network to investigate the control of epidemic outbreaks through periodic testing and isolation of infectious individuals, and subsequent quarantine of their immediate contacts. Using disease parameters informed by the COVID-19 pandemic, we investigate the effects of various crucial mitigation features on the epidemic spreading: fraction of the infectious population that is identifiable through the tests; testing frequency; time delay between testing and isolation of positively tested individuals; and the further time delay until quarantining their contacts as well as the quarantine duration. We thus determine the required ranges for these intervention parameters to yield effective control of the disease through both considerable delaying the epidemic peak and massively reducing the total number of sustained infections.
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    Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models
    Mukhamadiarov, Ruslan I.; Deng, Shengfeng; Serrao, Shannon R.; Priyanka; Nandi, Riya; Yao, Louie Hong; Täuber, Uwe C. (Nature Research, 2021-01-08)
    Once an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection. We report individual-based numerical simulations of stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered model variants on four distinct spatially organized lattice and network architectures wherein contact and mobility constraints are implemented. We robustly find that the intensity and spatial spread of the epidemic recurrence wave can be limited to a manageable extent provided release of these restrictions is delayed sufficiently (for a duration of at least thrice the time until the peak of the unmitigated outbreak) and long-distance connections are maintained on a low level (limited to less than five percent of the overall connectivity).
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    Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered models
    Mukhamadiarov, Ruslan I.; Deng, Shengfeng; Serrao, Shannon R.; Priyanka, Priyanka; Nandi, Riya; Yao, Hong; Täuber, Uwe C. (2020-12-16)
    Once an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection. We report individual-based numerical simulations of stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered model variants on four distinct spatially organized lattice and network architectures wherein contact and mobility constraints are implemented. We robustly find that the intensity and spatial spread of the epidemic recurrence wave can be limited to a manageable extent provided release of these restrictions is delayed sufficiently (for a duration of at least thrice the time until the peak of the unmitigated outbreak) and long-distance connections are maintained on a low level (limited to less than five percent of the overall connectivity).
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    Stabilizing spiral structures and population diversity in the asymmetric May-Leonard model through immigration
    Serrao, Shannon R.; Täuber, Uwe C. (Springer, 2021-08-01)
    We study the induction and stabilization of spiral structures for the cyclic three-species stochastic May-Leonard model with asymmetric predation rates on a spatially inhomogeneous two-dimensional toroidal lattice using Monte Carlo simulations. In an isolated setting, strongly asymmetric predation rates lead to rapid extinction from coexistence of all three species to a single surviving population. Even for weakly asymmetric predation rates, only a fraction of ecologies in a statistical ensemble manages to maintain full three-species coexistence. However, when the asymmetric competing system is coupled via diffusive proliferation to a fully symmetric May-Leonard patch, the stable spiral patterns from this region induce transient plane-wave fronts and ultimately quasi-stationary spiral patterns in the vulnerable asymmetric region. Thus the endangered ecological subsystem may effectively become stabilized through immigration from even a much smaller stable region. To describe the stabilization of spiral population structures in the asymmetric region, we compare the increase in the robustness of these topological defects at extreme values of the asymmetric predation rates in the spatially coupled system with the corresponding asymmetric May{Leonard model in isolation. We delineate the quasi-stationary nature of coexistence induced in the asymmetric subsystem by its diffusive coupling to a symmetric May{Leonard patch, and propose a (semi-)quantitative criterion for the spiral oscillations to be sustained in the asymmetric region.