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Browsing by Author "Shikhani, Muhammed"

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    Opportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics
    Jackson-Blake, Leah A.; Clayer, Francois; de Eyto, Elvira; French, Andrew S.; Dolores Frias, Maria; Mercado-Bettin, Daniel; Moore, Tadhg N.; Puertolas, Laura; Poole, Russell; Rinke, Karsten; Shikhani, Muhammed; van der Linden, Leon; Marce, Rafael (Copernicus, 2022-03-14)
    Advance warning of seasonal conditions has the potential to assist water management in planning and risk mitigation, with large potential social, economic, and ecological benefits. In this study, we explore the value of seasonal forecasting for decision-making at five case study sites located in extratropical regions. The forecasting tools used integrate seasonal climate model forecasts with freshwater impact models of catchment hydrology, lake conditions (temperature, water level, chemistry, and ecology), and fish migration timing and were co-developed together with water managers. To explore the decision-making value of forecasts, we carried out a qualitative assessment of (1) how useful forecasts would have been for a problematic past season and (2) the relevance of any windows of opportunity (seasons and variables where forecasts are thought to perform well) for management. Overall, water managers were optimistic about the potential for improved decision-making and identified actions that could be taken based on forecasts. However, there was often a mismatch between those variables that could best be predicted and those which would be most useful for management. Reductions in forecast uncertainty and a need to develop practical, hands-on experience were identified as key requirements before forecasts would be used in operational decision-making. Seasonal climate forecasts provided little added value to freshwater forecasts in these extratropical study sites, and we discuss the conditions under which seasonal climate forecasts with only limited skill are most likely to be worth incorporating into freshwater forecasting workflows.
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    Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools
    Clayer, Francois; Jackson-Blake, Leah; Mercado-Bettin, Daniel; Shikhani, Muhammed; French, Andrew; Moore, Tadhg N.; Sample, James; Norling, Magnus; Frias, Maria-Dolores; Herrera, Sixto; de Eyto, Elvira; Jennings, Eleanor; Rinke, Karsten; van der Linden, Leon; Marce, Rafael (Copernicus, 2023-03)
    Despite high potential benefits, the development of seasonal forecasting tools in the water sector has been slower than in other sectors. Here we assess the skill of seasonal forecasting tools for lakes and reservoirs set up at four sites in Australia and Europe. These tools consist of coupled hydrological catchment and lake models forced with seasonal meteorological forecast ensembles to provide probabilistic predictions of seasonal anomalies in water discharge, temperature and ice-off. Successful implementation requires a rigorous assessment of the tools' predictive skill and an apportionment of the predictability between legacy effects and input forcing data. To this end, models were forced with two meteorological datasets from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the seasonal forecasting system, SEAS5, with 3-month lead times and the ERA5 reanalysis. Historical skill was assessed by comparing both model outputs, i.e. seasonal lake hindcasts (forced with SEAS5), and pseudo-observations (forced with ERA5). The skill of the seasonal lake hindcasts was generally low although higher than the reference hindcasts, i.e. pseudo-observations, at some sites for certain combinations of season and variable. The SEAS5 meteorological predictions showed less skill than the lake hindcasts. In fact, skilful lake hindcasts identified for selected seasons and variables were not always synchronous with skilful SEAS5 meteorological hindcasts, raising questions on the source of the predictability. A set of sensitivity analyses showed that most of the forecasting skill originates from legacy effects, although during winter and spring in Norway some skill was coming from SEAS5 over the 3-month target season. When SEAS5 hindcasts were skilful, additional predictive skill originates from the interaction between legacy and SEAS5 skill. We conclude that lake forecasts forced with an ensemble of boundary conditions resampled from historical meteorology are currently likely to yield higher-quality forecasts in most cases.
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    Virtual Growing Pains: Initial Lessons Learned from Organizing Virtual Workshops, Summits, Conferences, and Networking Events during a Global Pandemic
    Meyer, Michael F.; Ladwig, Robert; Dugan, Hilary A.; Anderson, Alyssa; Bah, Abdou R.; Boehrer, Bertram; Borre, Lisa; Chapina, Rosaura J.; Doyle, Chris; Favot, Elizbaeth J.; Flaim, Giobanna; Forsberg, Philip; Hanson, Paul C.; Ibelings, Bas W.; Isles, Peter; Lin, Fang-Pang; Lofton, Dendy; Moore, Tadhg N.; Peel, Sara; Peters, Jody A.; Pierson, Don; de Senerpont Domis, Lisette N.; Schloss, Jeffrey A.; Shikhani, Muhammed; Smagula, Amy P.; Stockwell, Jason D.; Thomas, Perry; Thomas, R. Quinn; Tietjen, Todd; Weathers, Kathleen C. (Wiley, 2021-02-01)
    For many, 2020 was a year of abrupt professional and personal change. For the aquatic sciences community, many were adapting to virtual formats for conducting and sharing science, while simultaneously learning to live in a socially distanced world. Understandably, the aquatic sciences community postponed or canceled most in-person scientific meetings. Still, many scientific communities either transitioned annual meetings to a virtual format or inaugurated new virtual meetings. Fortunately, increased use of video conferencing platforms, networking and communication applications, and a general comfort with conducting science virtually helped bring the in-person meeting experience to scientists worldwide. Yet, the transition to conducting science virtually revealed new barriers to participation whereas others were lowered. The combined lessons learned from organizing a meeting constitute a necessary knowledge base that will prove useful, as virtual conferences are likely to continue in some form. To concentrate and synthesize these experiences, we showcase how six scientific societies and communities planned, organized, and conducted virtual meetings in 2020. With this consolidated information in hand, we look forward to a future, where scientific meetings embrace a virtual component, so to as help make science more inclusive and global.