Browsing by Author "Shocket, Marta S."

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    Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models
    Mordecai, Erin A.; Cohen, Jeremy M.; Evans, Michelle V.; Gudapati, Prithvi; Johnson, Leah R.; Lippi, Catherine A.; Miazgowicz, Kerri; Murdock, Courtney C.; Rohr, Jason R.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Savage, Van; Shocket, Marta S.; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.; Thomas, Matthew B.; Weikel, Daniel P. (PLOS, 2017-04)
    Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18-34 degrees C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26-29 degrees C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.
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    Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease
    Mordecai, Erin A.; Caldwell, Jamie M.; Grossman, Marissa K.; Lippi, Catherine A.; Johnson, Leah R.; Neira, Marco; Rohr, Jason R.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Savage, Van; Shocket, Marta S.; Sippy, Rachel; Ibarra, Anna M. Stewart; Thomas, Matthew B.; Villena, Oswaldo (Wiley, 2019-07-08)
    Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species – including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika – synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23–29ºC and declining to zero below 9–23ºC and above 32–38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25–26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.
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    Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23 degrees C and 26 degrees C
    Shocket, Marta S.; Verwillow, Anna B.; Numazu, Mailo G.; Slamani, Hani; Cohen, Jeremy M.; El Moustaid, Fadoua; Rohr, Jason R.; Johnson, Leah R.; Mordecai, Erin A. (2020-09-15)
    The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector-pathogen pairs of mosquitoes (Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefascsiatus, Cx. tarsalis, and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23-26 degrees C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24 degrees C, matching model-predicted optima (24-25 degrees C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.