VTechWorks staff will be away for the winter holidays starting Tuesday, December 24, 2024, through Wednesday, January 1, 2025, and will not be replying to requests during this time. Thank you for your patience, and happy holidays!

Browsing by Author "Sommerlot, Andrew R."

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Thumbnail Image
    Impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA
    Wagena, Moges B.; Collick, Amy S.; Ross, Andrew C.; Najjar, Raymond G.; Rau, Benjamin; Sommerlot, Andrew R.; Fuka, Daniel R.; Kleinman, Peter J. A.; Easton, Zachary M. (2018-10-01)
    Nutrient export from agricultural landscapes is a water quality concern and the cause of mitigation activities worldwide. Climate change impacts hydrology and nutrient cycling by changing soil moisture, stoichiometric nutrient ratios, and soil temperature, potentially complicating mitigation measures. This research quantifies the impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrology, nutrient cycling, and greenhouse gas emissions in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We force a calibrated model with seven downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate models and derived climate anomalies to assess their impact on hydrology and the export of nitrate (NO3-), phosphorus (P), and sediment, and emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and di-nitrogen (N-2). Modelaverage (+/- standard deviation) results indicate that climate change, through an increase in precipitation and temperature, will result in substantial increases in winter/spring flow (10.6 +/- 12.3%), NO3-(17.3 +/- 6.4%), dissolved P (32.3 +/- 18.4%), total P (24.8 +/- 16.9%), and sediment (25.2 +/- 16.6%) export, and a slight increases in N2O (0.3 +/- 4.8%) and N-2 (0.2 +/- 11.8%) emissions. Conversely, decreases in summer flow (-29.1 +/- 24.6%) and the export of dissolved P (-15.5 +/- 26.4%), total P (-16.3 +/- 20.7%), sediment (-20.7 +/- 18.3%), and NO3-(-29.1 +/- 27.8%) are driven by greater evapotranspiration from increasing summer temperatures. Decreases in N2O (-26.9 +/- 15.7%) and N-2 (-36.6 +/- 22.9%) are predicted in the summer and driven by drier soils. While the changes in flow are related directly to changes in precipitation and temperature, the changes in nutrient and sediment export are, to some extent, driven by changes in agricultural management that climate change induces, such as earlier spring tillage and altered nutrient application timing and by alterations to nutrient cycling in the soil. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Short-term Forecasting Tools for Agricultural Nutrient Management
    Easton, Zachary M.; Kleinman, Peter J. A.; Buda, Anthony R.; Goering, Dustin; Emberston, Nichole; Reed, Seann; Drohan, Patrick J.; Walter, M. Todd; Guinan, Pat; Lory, John A.; Sommerlot, Andrew R.; Sharpley, Andrew (2017-11)
    The advent of real-time, short-term farm management tools is motivated by the need to protect water quality above and beyond the general guidance offered by existing nutrient management plans. Advances in high-performance computing and hydrologic or climate modeling have enabled rapid dissemination of real-time information that can assist landowners and conservation personnel with short-term management planning. This paper reviews short-term decision support tools for agriculture that are under various stages of development and implementation in the United States: (i) Wisconsin's Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast (RRAF) System, (ii) New York's Hydrologically Sensitive Area Prediction Tool, (iii) Virginia's Saturated Area Forecast Model, (iv) Pennsylvania's Fertilizer Forecaster, (v) Washington's Application Risk Management (ARM) System, and (vi) Missouri's Design Storm Notification System. Although these decision support tools differ in their underlying model structure, the resolution at which they are applied, and the hydroclimates to which they are relevant, all provide forecasts (range 24-120 h) of runoff risk or soil moisture saturation derived from National Weather Service Forecast models. Although this review highlights the need for further development of robust and well-supported short-term nutrient management tools, their potential for adoption and ultimate utility requires an understanding of the appropriate context of application, the strategic and operational needs of managers, access to weather forecasts, scales of application (e.g., regional vs. field level), data requirements, and outreach communication structure.
  • Thumbnail Image
    A Web Based Interface for Distributed Short-Term Soil Moisture Forecasts
    Sommerlot, Andrew R.; Easton, Zachary M. (MDPI, 2017-08-15)
    Agricultural non-point source (NPS) pollution is a source of water quality impairment, and demonstrates widely varying spatial and temporal pollution potential. Many efforts to protect water quality are based on seasonal and annual estimates of pollutant loss potential (NRCS 590 nutrient management standard, P-Index) that inadequately address the hydrologic processes driving NPS pollution. One barrier to adopting practices that address NPS pollution is a lack of tools capable of transferring information at sufficient spatial and temporal resolution so that end-users can make informed decisions. We introduce a web-based system displaying distributed hydrologic forecasts using free and open source software. The system consists of three primary components: (1) a hydrology model that provides short-term distributed forecasts; (2) a data structure capable of re-structuring large, high resolution rasters; (3) an interface employing adaptive map-viewing technology that allows end-users to interact with the data to avoid high-risk areas when planning agricultural practices.